Busted Forecast & Colder

I forgot to post it here but shared it with my twitter followers that I was fairly certain the Wednesday into Thursday snow would drop 2 to 4 inches. There were some promising reports out from Peoria Illinois to our west which seemed to support my forecast. Well, it didn't even come close in our area. The heavier snow bands went south with places such as Crawfordsville receiving 3 inches. We had a trace to one tenth of an inch. What snow we did receive ran into a large pocket of dry air and the falling white stuff never hit the ground.

We look to have some melting and compacting of the snow today before we user in much colder temperatures. The weekend will see highs in the low to middle teens with single digit lows. Some lake effect snow could reach as far south as us this weekend too bring just light accumulations. Up near Lake Michigan the snow totals could surpass two feet over the next few days.

Speaking of two feet, the crazy talk I mentioned a few posts ago two to four feet of synoptic snow over a wide portions of the eastern US turned out to be just that. I guess with three memorable if not historic snows in a row, it just seems plausible the pattern and storm which the models kept showing could actually be true. Now the storm will be a more traditional set up over just the upper New England states. (VT, NH, ME) Six plus inches with howling winds will produce sometimes fun wintry conditions for them.

No surprises in the medium to long range for us other than it will remain cold and many nuisance dustings (yes, dustings) are likely. No accumulations of more than an inch here or there is showing up currently. I have held out hope the end of next week would produce a big storm but it doesn't seem as likely as we are drawing closer and it hasn't even shown any solutions which give us a big snow for several model runs. Oh well...

Revised Snow Total

After looking at the reports from the cooperative observers and amateur radio operators to the NWS, I will revise my total for the Saturday night & Sunday storm at 3.5 inches. (I had initially reported 4 inches so I was pretty close.)

Looks like it is going to remain cold. Also looks like we are on the western edge of some lake effect snow for the next few days. Accumulations look to be 1/2 an inch to an inch per day through the weekend.

Sunday Wrap Up & Our Future...

Today was a great surprise snow. Everybody had to keep raising their forecast snow amounts. It started yesterday as the Chicago area received amounts from 5 to nearly 12 inches. It has been difficult for me to have a definitive total but I think I will call it at 4 inches until I hear some additional reports into the NWS tomorrow. (It is never easy to get a measurement at my house.)

Both the short range and long range look to remain cold and volatile with snow chances coming every few days. This week will deliver some snow Wednesday into the weekend. This will likely be a long duration event with a little bit of snow coming each and every day. No real significant accumulations but a couple of inches seems probable right now. A later update will give a more accurate total.

What has my interest comes not this week but around the end of next week. I have seen several runs of the long range GFS showing a nice storm. While it hasn't shown historic snows like so many have seen, a nice 4 to 6 inch system with blowing seems to be floating around our area.

I think it is going to be interesting weather over the next two to three weeks.

Winter Weather Advisory

Looks like an additional two to three inches likely this afternoon. It would be a good time to stay home and watch the Colts.

More details here - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ind&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Crazy Talk...

The holidays and travel has had me somewhat distracted with the weather beyond the immediate system. However some quick looks around at models and some intelligent discussion has uncovered what I would call crazy talk. I find it hard to believe that the discussion of two to four FEET of snow is seriously being talked about for a large swath of the eastern US next weekend or so...

I am really going to have to take some time to digest the complex and volatile weather pattern which has produced three, count 'em three, large scale snow storms already for the US. (Too bad we were a miss for all three here locally.)

Sunday Snow

It looks like a nice snowfall of a couple inches or possibly even as much as four inches if the system can produce as shown on the computer models. Already slick on roadways and I have heard of numerous slide offs on the scanner.

Snowy Update

Some snow fell overnight and flurries are likely throughout the day. After midnight, snow showers will move in and drop another inch of snow before Sunday lunch.

There are some additional snow chances showing up on the models and I will start tomorrow to detail what our future holds.

Christmas Day

The overnight rain has made slop of everything outside. Yuk. A heavy band should move through around 9:30 or a bit after. It looks generally clear after 11 AM and temperatures should start to fall this afternoon. Snow flurries should be possible thru Sunday with minimal accumulations around an inch.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Christmas Eve Morning Update

Looks like we should be dry for a few hours locally as a dryslot comes through. Surface temperatures are also rising so the light glaze seen about should melt off or at a minimum stop increasing. Overall I found traveled roads wet with lightly used roads still slick in spots. The police scanner has slowed down with slid offs for now giving law enforcement and tow truck drivers a rest.

Temperatures should continue a slow rise through Christmas morning and nearly an inch of rain possible. (Yes, the snow will melt away.) We should transition back to snow by tomorrow afternoon. A light snow with an inch or so likely into Sunday.

I do think we are nearly done with the freezing rain. That is a good thing for travelers and last minute shoppers. Please note than travel north and west could be much more hazardous so please check conditions before traveling.

Have a great Christmas if you don't happen to stop by again. Also, don't forget to watch Santa and his travels. (He is already on the road delivering presents!) Check here - http://www.noradsanta.org/

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

ICY WEATHER INTO AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN WILL BE COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO PRODUCE GLAZE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT.PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

INZ021-030-031-038>042-049-231900-
/O.NEW.KIND.ZR.Y.0001.091223T1434Z-091223T1900Z/
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DE-RANDOLPH-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.FRANKFORT.KOKOMO.ANDERSON.MUNCIE
934 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

Watch for changing conditions

I don't anticipate any significant icing accumulations with the system across our area. Rather some light patches which can make for slick surfaces. Drive accordingly as you are out and about. Watch the radar for where the rain/snow/freezing rain sets up. (Pink is freezing rain.)

It's coming east...

The models have trended a bit east with the track of the low and secondary low. Now it won't be large enough to have a huge difference on our snow totals but could have an impact on our frozen precipitation. Icing amounts of 1/10" looks possible.

Now look at the forecast track of the low(s)...

Things could get interesting!

Beast!

Looks like a beast of a storm for the high plains...

Miss Opportunity

No doubt today would have been a two hour delay for area schools. Slick snow packed roads that are mainly untreated make for easy delay calls early in the season. Watch for a continued light snow accumulating to around an inch before tapering off by evening.

While not looking to make ice storm criteria, there could be some ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday. Small amount of ice with moderate winds gusting more than 20 MPH could cause some downed trees and power lines. Travel will be slow during this time frame. Thursday evening into Christmas Day should see a change over to all rain before going back to snow for the weekend.

I want to give a plug tor Chad Evans and his weather blog. Chad is the on air meteorologist at WLFI (Channel 18) in Lafayette. He has some great detailed analysis of upcoming weather. Visit him here - http://blogs.wlfi.com/category/chads-wlfi-weather-blog/

Below has to be one of the ugliest low tracks I have seen in quite a while. The warm air from the gulf will be brought up giving us the wintry mix and rain. Bah Humbug!

Ugly Week Ahead

Crummy winter weather is ahead. More snow showers overnight and tomorrow with minimal accumulations. Wednesday and Wednesday night could be problematic with a wintry mix with freezing rain and wind. That could be a lethal combination for the power grid. Expect some outages.

Christmas Eve will continue to have freezing rain before a temperature warm up in the overnight. Christmas day will start out warm before ending with snow and much colder temperatures.

No significant snow with any of this mess.

Wintry Mix

Wednesday and Wednesday are now forecast with a *wintry mix* and then 40 degree temps will being all rain on Thursday before we return to snow for Christmas Day.

Snow & More...

The overnight clipper will provide about an inch of snow and slick roads for the morning. Drive safe.

Later this week is still not a lock but it looks more than likely the snow will track to our west and north. The question is what do we get? While I don't like a cold rain, it is better than the alternative which is freezing rain. The warm layer of air aloft Wednesday evening through Thursday morning could pose some icing threats until surface air warms.

Some rain and then snow will come around on the back end Christmas day. It will likely be a mess and changes to the forecast is likely. Keep coming back...

Ugh...

The big storm for Christmas looks like it will be wet rather than snowy. Still some time but the models are starting to come together with similar solutions and none of them bring anything more than a light snow mix with mainly rain Wednesday thru Saturday. :(

Hope Santa Brings You A Generator...

The GFS is advertising a widespread devastating ice storm for Christmas Eve and Day. Sure hope that does not verify...

Possible Tracks of Christmas Low

Credit: Scott Dimmich from ABC News 25 Evansville

Allready 18+ inches in much of the middle Atlantic

That would sure be sweet. Look at this photo...

Less Snow For Us...

Watching the reports coming today and the warm temperatures, I was afraid the "snow hole" which kept showing up on the models was a fluke. it wasn't. Looks like the snow will wait closer to daylight to start and then will accumulate around an inch.

There is a HECS (Historic East Coast Snowstorm) happening this weekend with snow from the Carolinas to New England. The nations capital will see 12 to 24 inches of snow. What a beast of a storm. (I know several who when on a snow chase and had I not had some work commitments, I likely would have went myself!)

There is a big system brewing for next week which should hit a couple of days before Christmas and move out to the east coast by the weekend. Way to many (goofy) model solutions to even consider what path it will take. Look for a better handle on the storm late this weekend or even as late as Monday.

Around an inch or two...

The system moving through Friday evening through Saturday evening will drop around one to two inches of snow. Look for slick roads when leaving the basketball games on Friday night.

This system looks to phase with another system from the gulf to produce what will likely be a crippling storm along the eastern seaboard.

A clipper system will come in Sunday night which looks like it has the potential for another inch or two. Cold weather will keep this snow cover on the ground while a potentially huge system could strike just a day or two before Christmas. This system needs to be watched closely.

Snow for last minute shoppers...

Last minute shoppers could see snow while out Friday PM through Saturday early evening. Accumulations will be light of one to two inches around the area with the mini clipper diving over the area. This will likely double our snow total for the season.

Anopther poteinal clipper system could arrive Monday evening and then a huge late week storm could dump snow over much of the eastern United States including locally. Stay tuned...

Snow in the Forecast?

Twenty four hours ago I had little confidence in getting measurable snow from the weekend clipper system. What a difference a day makes with some better sampling of the system coming onshore and a few models runs. Hey, even the NWS in Indianapolis has jumped on board for a 50% chance of snow for Friday late afternoon to Saturday evening.

The low will track from Quincy, Illinois at 7 AM Friday morning to Evansville by 7 PM Friday evening and then Lexington, KY be 7 AM Saturday morning before continuing east.

This should make for a wide swath of snow squarely dropping one to two inches across our area. One thing I like is we have had pretty good luck with clipper system and it isn't all that uncommon for them to over perform. Spots of three or four inches wouldn't surprise me with the snow being light and fluffy.

This will likely also be a slow duration event which will cause slick roads across the area for 24 or more hours. Get your shopping done early! (I am done already!)

A later update is possible or early tomorrow morning.

Cold...

There seems to be plenty of cold to go around this week and next. However the cold will be wasted with no significant snow in the forecast. Some possible snow flurries may possible Friday evening and Saturday. No accumulations but roadways could become slick so driver should be cautious should precipitation begin falling.

Winding Down...

The wind and the temperatures are winding down. It sounds odd to say this but the winds almost underperformed today given the extremely low pressure and tight gradient around the low.

The official peak gust was measured at 54 MPH.

Temperatures are now falling and we are going to remain cold for the next few days until a slight more moderate/seasonal temperatures arrive.

Several more systems keep popping up on the models but nothing like the storm which rocked much of the country with blizzards, heavy snow, and thunderstorms. Stay tuned.

2009-2010 Snow Totals

This post will be updated with snow totals during the Winter of 2009-2010 for Kokomo, IN.

TOTAL: 32" (thru 2/27)

12-7 1" (first snow)
12-9 T (30 to 50 MPH winds (NWS KOKK Gust 54 mph))
12-10 T
12-19/12-20 2" (first clipper system)
12/21 1" (second clipper system)
12/22 1" (unexpected)
12/26-12/27 3.5" (decent snow in two waves (missed out on a snow day))
12/30-12/31 T (busted forecast, best snows went south)
1/2 T (huge LES event up north)
1/4 0.5" (LES)
1/7 5" (nice clipper system/some schools closed/some dismissed early - Snow Day #1)
1/8-1/9 1" (LES Schools closed on Friday.)
1/25-1/26 1" (Blowing mess across Indiana. We miss out on the big one later this week.)
1/28 - 1" (Terrible, just plain terrible.)
2/2 - T (Nothing much...)
2/5-2/6 - 4" (Big storm system just south of us.)
2/9-2/10 - 5.5" (Busted on snow totals but did get two snow days and still the biggest snow of the season.)
2/12 - 0" (no snow but freezing fog canceled school for eastern.)
2/15-2/16 - 1" (much bigger snow south again.)
2/20 - T (The 2 wave storm system that failed.)
2/23 - T
2/24-2/25 - 2.5" (LES)
2/26 - 1" (reverse system)

WOW!

High Winds Coming/Flakes Reported in Lafayette

Duke Energy Power Outage

Some spotty power outages are possible today with the winds. You can find information and updates from Duke Energy online here - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp

29.017"/982.6mb

The barometer read 29.017" OR 982.6mb 4:11 AM. That is the lowest reading of the year.



Winds are the concern of the day and watch the road for debris as you drive about. About anything not secured today will be blowing around. I already saw a small limb in the road on my way to work.

Wind...

Wind remains the headline for our area. Look for a memorable wind event tomorrow with sustained winds over 25 MPH with gust over 50 MPH likely. The one inch of snow will likely be blown completely away.

The temperatures will also drop significantly as the cold front passes. Temperature will begin to start falling by 9 AM with the passing of the cold front and will bottom out to 12 degrees by dawn on Thursday. Winds will remain on Thursday but down to 10 to 15 MPH sustained. Not much warming either with highs in the teens for Thursday.

Another cold night near 10 for Friday morning before warming to near 30. Looks for another dusting of snow Saturday evening with nominal accumulations.

Nothing Has Changed...

It looks like the warm air was way underdone on the forecast models. The rain/snow line keeps moving north/northwest. Zero chance we see any snow until tomorrow afternoon when a bit of the wrap around snow could fall. Accumulations of one inch at best.

The winds do remain a concern and I expect it to dominate local weather headlines through Thursday morning. Tomorrow during the daylight hours, I fully expect some wind damage to weak structures, uprooted trees, and power outages.

Now looking ahead to a smaller weekend storm which might bring a few flakes.

No Changes

Click for the whole picture...

It looks like there have been no shifts to the system which will impact our area. The winds will begin to ramp up today gusting to near 25 MPH and then will be double that tomorrow with 50 MPH plus wind gusts and 30 MPH sustained winds.

Monday Night Update

No significant changes to the forecast. It is going to really turn into a nowcast type of situation to see if there are changes to the track which would bring it further south.

Be advised the winds will be a significant problem in Wednesday with the strongest gusts around 10 AM to 4 PM where gusts over 50 MPH are likely.

If you are twitter savvy, please be sure and follow KokomoWeather for the very latest here - http://twitter.com/KokomoWeather

High Winds Watch For Wednesday

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.

315 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


* TIMING: THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 7 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS: HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY HAVE DIFFICULTIES TRAVELLING AND COULD BE BLOWN OFF THE ROAD. LOOSE FURNITURE OR LAWN ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AWAY.

Hope! (Forecast Update)

There is some hope we can pull out more snow than first thought. The cold and high pressure are a tad further south than originally forecast. This should cause the low pressure which is just inside of Nevada and training back into California to dip a bit lower into Texas.

From the Wichita, KS weather office an hour or so ago, then mention this too...

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AIRCRAFT DATA IS EVEN SHOWING 130KT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PV ANOMALY. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE IT TOO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. WE ARE STARTING SEE HINTS OF THIS ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS.

Let's take a second to look at the various forecast ensembles you can see that a significant number are southeast of the projected track favored by the NWS.

So while a track more slightly to the south and east would help us, it won't bring the blizzard to us. However we could potentially see our snow totals jump up to 3 to 5 inches rather than the minor 1 to 2 inches currently forecast.

Speaking of snow, system might bring a small front end dump of 1 to 2 inches before the rain comes. Watch for that just after the lunch hour tomorrow. Then rain before a quick swipe of another inch before dawn on Thursday morning.

I guess we still need to keep an eye on the system...

It Snowed!

We finally have done it! We have our first snow!

As mentioned, there was some wild driving and the scanner was going crazy with slid offs. I did hear of one possible accident which included a car stuck on tracks. You can catch all of the action at ScanKokomo - http://www.scankokomo.com/. (Mobile/Cell Phone users can listen here - http://m.radioreference.com/?feedId=127)

No big changes for the mid week storm for our area. Dubuque, Davenport, & Cedar Rapids, IA are now under a Blizzard Watch.

Mid Week Mayhem...

The big snow being talked about will be a miss for our area but the system will be a big influence for us in other ways. The low pressure will track from the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon to northwest Indiana by 7 AM on Wednesday.

Rapid deepening of the low will cause the winds to ramp up on Tuesday with afternoon winds near 20 MPH. By 7 PM, the winds will remain strong bringing up warm temperatures ans some thunder will be possible. Rain will be prevalent with amounts from 1/2" to 3/4" before a change over to a bit of back end snow of about an inch.

The winds will be strong through Wednesday with gusts near 40 MPH before tapering off on Thursday. There will be a possible freeze issue Wednesday night when temperatures finally drop below freezing. Thursday could offer school delays.

Overall I don't expect any ice accumulation or associated problems (down trees or power lines) from this storm.

If you are unlucky enough to be traveling into Wisconsin or Iowa or the western half of Michigan this week, you will probably run into big snow storm which will likely dominate news headlines.

If something changes, I will keep everyone informed.

We're done...

I was going to do a more detailed and technical update showing what I had hoped was the small amount of remaining potential for the mid week system. However after the latest model reviews, it would just be an effort in futility and losing some sleep. Yes, I am bitter and there is no hiding it. Too often the models show potential and then take it away.

In general, the warm air is coming in and making a wreck of everything. Right now the temperatures at 850mb (5000 ft.) range from -10 t0 -13 Celsius. By Monday, they have risen to about -5 Celsius and continue the climb. When the storm is going, we are several degrees above freezing at 5000 ft.

Surface temperatures which have been cold also rise to middle 30's. Combining the two results in a cold and miserable rain. Of course after most of the system has passed, the surface and 850mb temperatures fall possibly producing a couple of inches at best on the back end. Otherwise the storm will be a bust for our area.

If we do get a big snow producer from this storm, then the models will need to be wrong and the storm's low pressure would need to dig deeper south before ejecting northeast. That will (need to) happen on Tuesday. I will follow the low track to see how it verifies.

Monday Morning Alert: While the focus has been on bigger mid week storm, there is a smaller system moving through late Sunday evening into Monday. It should being us a nominal amount of snow of an inch or less. Like was thought last week, the snow will fall early morning and through the rush hour. Expect possible hazardous and wild driving conditions on Monday morning with people relearning how to drive on snow covered roads. School delays are possible.

Forecast Coming Later...

I will begin to detail the upcoming possible snows with a forecast later tonight. Lots to sort out...

Houston, we have a problem...

Winter Storm Warning in the Houston metro area. They are looking for 2-4 inches which will make for impossible driving conditions. (Here we would just day heh and continue on.)

Also some great lake effect snow in Michigan where more than nine inches has already fallen.

It is good to know someone is getting snow. I am hopeful that we will have some snow with the next system on Sunday evening into Monday.

The system which follows for Tuesday night into Wednesday has a lot more questions than answers at this point. Time will tell...

Next Week...

Next week could bring good potential for snow. Given the history of the forecast models, I will hold off on predicting any forecast details but will mention that the first storm on Monday should give us our first flakes of the season while the middle of the week has potential to bring someone a great snow; hopefully us!

Enjoy the cold weekend and check for updates about next week.

The Surface Low (& Snow Reports)

It is almost painful how perfect this low is tracking. Some reports of snow in Montgomery County. Still at 38/39 here...

Uncle...

I surrender to the storm system and am not expecting anything but a few mixed in flakes. It is going to remain just warm enough as the precipitation slides through that we will received a cold rain. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1/3" for the system.

There will be colder temperatures in store for the end of the week through the weekend but the deep cold advertised on the long range models for next week has disappeared. If that happens. then the upcoming storms riding the fence whether if they are going to bring rain or snow.

There is one positive thing about this system is the track of the low is about perfect for good snows for our area. If later systems can keep this track when there is ample cold air, then we should get some decent snows!

Am I alone here???

I think I might be the only person still thinking we will receive any snow. Most believe the precipitation will move out before the cold arrives. I will continue to believe in my forecast while I sleep but I might waffle tomorrow and change my mind.

The one thing I can guarantee is colder and wetter weather.

Not much to update...

The models have seemed to bring a nice axis of QPF over us tomorrow night into Thursday AM. The question is when does the cold air arrive and the change over to snow occur. I am still thinking sometime around the late news the change over will be occurring with it picking up steam a few hours later. By sunrise, it will be all but done and I think the inch will have fallen. If we can get a nice deformation band over the top of us, two to three inches might just surprise us come Thursday morning even though there is more wishcasting in that than any science. *grin*

Looking Back at November & Ahead to Thursday's Snow

Let's look back at November first. The Indianapolis NWS did a nice write up but even the most casual weather observer knows that November was warm and dry. The many days with an above normal temperature allowed people complete outdoor chores and to continue to enjoy outdoor activities.

We averaged about three to four degrees above normal. The high of 73 came early on 11/8 and we dropped to 28 on 11/12. (Last year we dropped to 14 on 11/22.)

The warm weather was accompanied by sunshine much of the time. Only about half as much rain as normal fell for November. While there were some observation of snow flakes mixed in with the rain over the Thanksgiving holiday, I am declaring November to be snow free. I don't consider anything less than a trace amount to even count.

December does look to start out cooler with temperatures falling to seasonal later this week and it looks like lows will dip into the teen by the middle of the month. Our first snow this week will be light and stay around an inch. I do feel rather confident that there will be a two hour delay for the county schools in the area. The snow will fall mainly after 2 AM lasting up until the normal start of school. The previous rain will freeze on some surfaces too including bridges and sidewalks. I think that combination and with this being the first hazardous conditions of the season, administrators will error on the side of caution and delay school. (If this were later into the season and we had a few snows under our belt, I might not be as confident.)