tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34741583742924380302024-03-14T04:59:12.908-04:00Kokomo, IN WeatherWHEN ALL THE LINES ON THE WEATHER MAP OVERLAP...BAD THINGS HAPPEN!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1552125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-38727202479286342912012-03-26T22:52:00.001-04:002012-03-26T22:53:27.310-04:00An Ugly Winter Revisited...<br />
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<b>Winter Revisited:</b></div>
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On November 1<sup>st</sup> I released my <a href="http://kokomo-weather.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-2012-winter-outlook.html" target="_blank">winter forecast</a>. I described the upcoming winter with one
word: Awesome! That seems laughable when
I read it now. </div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Let’s
review what a few others had for their winter forecast…<br />
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<b>Accuweather: Brutal Winter Ahead for the Midwest, Great Lakes</b></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Hands
down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great
Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.</span></i></div>
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<b>The National Weather Service had the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
cold and snowy. </b></div>
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<br />Every forecast I could read and the few forecasters I could speak
with all thought that this past winter would be of the cold and snow
variety. </div>
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At least we all busted together.
Breaking down my forecast, I started off thinking that winter was ready
to flip the switch on by the middle of November. October gave signs of a pattern shift that
would bring winter like conditions across the region before Thanksgiving. <br />
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In the last half of November, ten days topped 50 degrees with
three topping 60 degrees. At the end of
November, we did get a snowstorm which was quite tricky to forecast. It was an overrunning event where the rain
would transition to snow as a cold front overtook the moisture. </div>
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We ended up being just a bit far west to see
the best snow but we did record 5 inches of heavy snow. Sadly it only caused two hour delays for area
schools. The good news is that we seemed
to be finally on track for winter.</div>
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Nope.<br />
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December went warm and almost snowless.
Two events with one being a moisture starved clipper on the 8<sup>th</sup>
bringing 1/2 inch and another heavy wet snow on the 27<sup>th</sup> for 2
inches. We were also warm with the
average temperature 6.2 degrees above normal in Indy. </div>
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By now it was realized the pattern was going to be ugly and January would be
warm. We did squeak out a half dozen
snow events but the biggest was 3 inches.
Indy finished with no single digit temperatures and I think Kokomo might
have seen one morning with single digits.
By the end of January, Indy had 60 degrees. Anyone holding on to the cold and snowy forecast
now was just delusional. Indy was 5.6
degrees above normal. The idea of a second
half of January seeing a big snow storm was completely off. </div>
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If I got anything right it was my idea that February would see a
moderation of temperatures. It was. It started warm and finished warmer. No big snow and no cold shots. Single digit temperatures were never realized
in Indy for all of the winter and finished the month at 5.2 degrees above
normal. </div>
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While meteorological winter ends on the last day of February, I
thought winter would still have something left up its sleeve for March. It did.
Severe weather and way above normal temperatures. As of the 25<sup>th</sup> of March, Indy is
15.7 degrees above normal. All kinds of
records for high temperatures have been broken. </div>
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In the end, I give both my winter outlook and winter a big fat
F. Both are well deserved. I predicted 35 to 40 inches of snow and we
had just 20 inches with that last November snow of 5 inches being the biggest
all winter. I also had forecast 4 snow
days and there were two or three school delays depending on which county school
you attended. </div>
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We did manage to nickel and dime out way to near average snowfall. Still below but all things considered, it was
better than anyone could expect. The December
to February temperature anomaly was 5.5 degrees above average. </div>
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We
also did finish with above normal precipitation but it was cold rain rather
than the white stuff. The official write
up from NWS Indy is <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=80175&source=2" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
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The look back was not very pretty. Sorry
about that. Hopefully we can do better
next winter. Hopefully.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-16595620373388185332012-03-02T00:15:00.001-05:002012-03-02T00:17:37.324-05:00Get Ready for Friday...A reminder that I do many quick updates on the Facebook Page - <a href="https://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather</a><br />
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Here are the latest SREF updates outlining the best areas for tornado development. This is for 4 and 7 PM on Friday the 3rd.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-30387392777203109312012-02-29T16:42:00.002-05:002012-02-29T16:42:40.365-05:00Potential Severe Weather OutbreakThis is for Friday March 2 at 4 PM. Significant Tornado Values are quite high...<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-49372790350222692202012-02-06T12:32:00.001-05:002012-02-06T12:32:22.677-05:00Looking Ahead...It is quite foolish to look almost two weeks forward but we're going to do it anyway...<br />
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Around the end of next week into the weekend (2/17 - 2/18), a significant storm looks to impact the area bringing heavy amount of snow. The set up is near textbook for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. Who knows how this plays out but at least there appears to be something brewing...<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-7622113700362712162012-01-31T08:02:00.000-05:002012-01-31T08:02:26.507-05:00Nevermind...The 120 hour snow track on the GFS is in the first image. Compare this to CIPS top 5 for 120 hours.<br />
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(CIPS takes the current atmospheric conditions and finds the most similar conditions from past history. These are five snow storms which actually happened and closely match our current conditions.)<br />
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This pretty much leads me to think we will not see much if any snow this weekend...<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-539504859095668122012-01-22T15:04:00.000-05:002012-01-22T15:20:04.303-05:00A Scary Sunday Night AheadSevere weather is a concern anytime but when it happens in the darkness, it is downright scary. Tonight's storms will still be just a forecast even for those who stay up late to catch the 11 PM news. Storms likely won't enter western Indiana until after midnight. Kokomo until 1 to 2 AM and maybe even as late as 3 AM as the front has been slowing down all day.<br />
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Here is the latest HRRR forecast for 3 AM and you can see the line extending well up into Michigan. Temperatures and dew points will have surged to near 50 locally and instability while not nearly as strong the southern portion of the state is more than ample for straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. <br />
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Even with just an isolated tornado threat, the likelihood of a significant wind knocking down trees and power likes and weak structures is great.<br />
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Here is the latest SPC outlook. Kokomo is in the slight risk area. It has pretty much been that way all day.<br />
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There won't be much to update until later this evening. We are just awaiting the storm...<br />
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For Monday, we have this to look forward to...<br />
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<pre>...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A </pre>
<pre>WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST </pre>
<pre>MONDAY.
* TIMING...700 AM TO 500 PM
* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS </pre>
<pre>AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED </pre>
<pre>OBJECTS OUTSIDE. SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. </pre>
<pre>DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. </pre>
<pre>WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY </pre>
<pre>FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.</pre>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-14954533920992703152012-01-19T22:08:00.001-05:002012-01-19T22:09:43.792-05:00Tricky Friday ForecastToday was a surprise. While accumulating snow was expected, the 4 inches which fell was not. Clippers can change track which this did and like we always hope, this one over performed. Tomorrow could turn out the same.<br />
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The weather will be in your face the minute you step out the door on Friday morning. It will be zero or even colder. Easily the coldest night of the season. Other than the cold, the morning should be uneventful.<br />
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Snow picks up in the afternoon and will be going as good as it gets by the dinner hour. While this won't be as big of a snow as today, it will add to it. There could be mixing issues. Two systems are coming together and exactly where that converges will have big implications for they type of precipitation we receive.<br />
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Snow and mixed precipitation will continue through Saturday morning. I can see Saturday morning be rather messy for anyone on the road until mid morning. <br />
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Follow along tomorrow on Facebook as we see how this plays out. I'm thinking a couple of inches of snow and a touch of freezing rain or sleet.<br />
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Oh, two hour delay for tomorrow. Slick roads and cold temps make it seem logical. :)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-23470320330787207732012-01-12T13:32:00.003-05:002012-01-12T13:32:43.774-05:00Temps Diving...<b>Remember Friday (or even Tuesday)?
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Don't forget to join us on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather" target="_blank">Facebook</a> to share in the conversation.
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-19802045903620299592012-01-12T06:51:00.001-05:002012-01-12T07:00:40.764-05:00A True Winter StormThis should feel like a true winter storm. Temperatures will plunge until reaching single digits be Saturday morning. Strong winds will blow snow, reducing visibility and causing sub zero wind chills.<br />
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Just before 7 AM, you can see surface temperatures and the thickness line for snow crossing the border into the state.<br />
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Don't expect much relief until Monday either. Hope your ready for a weekend of hunkering down.<br />
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<div class="MsoPlainText">
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THUR TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
* TIMING.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
* MAIN IMPACT.SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THUR EVENING &
FRIDAY<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MORNING RUSH HRS.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
* OTHER IMPACTS.BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DRIFTING
& REDUCED VISIBILITIES.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
* ACCUMULATIONS.3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE N. COUNTIES/2 TO</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4 INCHES ACROSS
THE CNTL PORTIONS OF CNTL IN/1 TO 3<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>INCHES ACROSS THE S. COUNTIES.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
------------- </div>
<br />
I must admit, the system up until yesterday seem rather anemic for moisture. The surface low looked to move a bit faster to the east and the cold was a slower to arrive. I didn't pay much attention to the system still thinking an inch or two drawn out over a 24 to 36 hour period would really be nothing more than a tease and nuisance.<br />
<br />
However the models now seem to agree with a slow moving system with the cold catching up and a deepening sub 990 low pressure. All of that combined will produce a pretty good snow maker for a large area of the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley.<br />
<br />
That said, we still are on the southern edge and are dependent on the slow movement and wrap around moisture enhanced by Lake Michigan. There is a lot which would go wrong.<br />
<br />
Focusing on the positives, the modest amount of snow will be wind blown for a solid 24 to 30 hours. This snow will be a high ratio snow so limited moisture 12:1 to 17:1 can still produce a fair amount of accumulations. We won't have to deal with the heavy wet snow knowing down trees and power lines which is good news.<br />
<br />
Yesterday, I made the off hand comment on the Facebook page that I didn't expect to see any cancellations or even delays. That thinking has also changed.<br />
<br />
So lets break it down...<br />
<br />
At 7 AM on Thursday, we have a lull in precipitation and the rain/snow line is just moving into western Indiana.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqNtI6Cb1_XUtuNLe8nSR9MwYgY0qD1p9uWmgv9rJtUsYYxoEpIuowbgUZOPebDqfZm9vcKeZCqMyAR4-t61Q6R4kX_BMxsPR-YKnK5yYwTA5RanV8xzdb9D45Tn0Ge2PTRsGxbaCMmwk/s1600/gfsUS_0_prec_24.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqNtI6Cb1_XUtuNLe8nSR9MwYgY0qD1p9uWmgv9rJtUsYYxoEpIuowbgUZOPebDqfZm9vcKeZCqMyAR4-t61Q6R4kX_BMxsPR-YKnK5yYwTA5RanV8xzdb9D45Tn0Ge2PTRsGxbaCMmwk/s320/gfsUS_0_prec_24.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
By1 PM in the afternoon, snow is cranking as are the winds. Over the next 6 hours, expect a couple of inches to fall and winds to become sustained near 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH. I think any evening activities will be cancelled. <br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6jUOQR1JEoHUajmjkQm_-LTxY_faBzmvbiYXR4Q_E0Fvi_BVOpxRYkP1lU-Gv3Vq8A_XqjkfG1xD49mNyeO8AjJRo4cs5E3KEvCtE3uVdJj0hQldQvqEVoLJcoCSz2B7iu15jJ7K3bnQ/s1600/gfsUS_0_prec_30.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6jUOQR1JEoHUajmjkQm_-LTxY_faBzmvbiYXR4Q_E0Fvi_BVOpxRYkP1lU-Gv3Vq8A_XqjkfG1xD49mNyeO8AjJRo4cs5E3KEvCtE3uVdJj0hQldQvqEVoLJcoCSz2B7iu15jJ7K3bnQ/s320/gfsUS_0_prec_30.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Thursday evening has the rain/snow line through Ohio. The slow moving low pressure continues to deepen as the wind driven snow makes conditions difficult. We are also heading for real temperatures in the teen and wind chills below zero. The 50's from recent will be just a memory.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxMaV1xTFxpUIWoGNXOEb809pWK796ul9DMVpadanGhgW1G0X11jmMTGEicBAF3mHa6n3j8TdRG8C-xlVzTyNb-s7fUENMm4insTzdqiVtQcvVhBnSnufOQ1FQ41Xdqi_9v3P5QyK468/s1600/gfsUS_0_prec_36.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxMaV1xTFxpUIWoGNXOEb809pWK796ul9DMVpadanGhgW1G0X11jmMTGEicBAF3mHa6n3j8TdRG8C-xlVzTyNb-s7fUENMm4insTzdqiVtQcvVhBnSnufOQ1FQ41Xdqi_9v3P5QyK468/s320/gfsUS_0_prec_36.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6t9P8Eyn4nfJv7Z29dxW9uukPMeZwy12OCq-LQ3WMtucFRJpWHHmsPE2ROvyIgKFyw5j38Xi80D4ROuRy2t-xFlxdviWc_7REud5TPgQjn2oWCIDqK0UxgphUSaUQIuWfil_E8tFfksw/s1600/gfsUS_0_prec_42.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6t9P8Eyn4nfJv7Z29dxW9uukPMeZwy12OCq-LQ3WMtucFRJpWHHmsPE2ROvyIgKFyw5j38Xi80D4ROuRy2t-xFlxdviWc_7REud5TPgQjn2oWCIDqK0UxgphUSaUQIuWfil_E8tFfksw/s320/gfsUS_0_prec_42.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizKv2yfODG4weboEJoGBWDpDmoVhVinPoM6nK5m5YxpjiCblx3N0GRau4-D1kuyroNORzAglqk19VWtf78aOqUy7KERPC0tjaP6roc0DnsCcyx21yayvXXXUaCi3rfhSPmn7fnJJ4AhcY/s1600/gfsUS_0_prec_48.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizKv2yfODG4weboEJoGBWDpDmoVhVinPoM6nK5m5YxpjiCblx3N0GRau4-D1kuyroNORzAglqk19VWtf78aOqUy7KERPC0tjaP6roc0DnsCcyx21yayvXXXUaCi3rfhSPmn7fnJJ4AhcY/s320/gfsUS_0_prec_48.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
The bulk of the snow will be over by mid morning on Friday. The winds will remain strong with gust to near 30 MPH through the afternoon before easing up a bit. <i style="color: red;"><b>Snow accumulations will be on the order of 4 to 6 inches with drifting. I just don't see area schools being in session on Friday.</b></i><br />
<br />
Some flurries could continue through the weekend and no rise above freezing until Monday.<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
For me, I'm preparing for a 4 day/3 might camping trip in Hoosier National Forest this weekend. (The wife thinks I am nuts and she will be home nice and warm with the two dogs.) I say bring it on! :)<br />
<br />
There could be more snow as early as Tuesday of next week too.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-57825562044044306642011-12-31T15:41:00.000-05:002012-01-01T10:09:58.733-05:002011: Looking BackA <i>brief</i> recap of 2011 is all that is needed for a year which didn't feature many memorable events for weather in Howard County. While this was a year for extreme weather for many portions of the United States, Kokomo & Howard County pretty such sat out for all but one. <br />
<br />
<div style="color: red;">
<b>Ground Hog Day Blizzard 2011</b></div>
<br />
After seeing the big snow storms hitting the east coast, it was nice for us to be in the bullseye for once. The talk on the Internet between weather hobbyists began much earlier than any of the public forecast discussions from the National Weather Service or broadcast media. <br />
<br />
I hinted at the snow event 9 days in advance and started sharing more detailed forecasts 6 days in advance.<br />
<br />
Forecast models had latched on rather early and some of the snow accumulations were very impressive to beyond believable. Some had 2+ feet of snow across our area. The timing was particularity troublesome for such a significant storm. It was to begin Monday evening and on Saturday, the public was still generally unaware a potentially historic snow storm was a little more than 48 hours away.<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
Synoptically this storm had a remakable resenbence to the Valentines Day Storm of 2007. That should still be fresh enough in most peoples minds to know how bad things got around the area. <br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
I truly felt many would be unprepared including some vital services so for the first time, I contact Howard County Emergency Management's Director and filled him in on what I was thinking. We went back and forth and I know he passed along my forecast to the Howard County Highway Department.<br />
<br />
By Sunday morning, the National Weather Service was on board with the idea of a significant weather event and began alerting the public. Broadcast media also followed suit. Besides significant snow amounts, a likely more devastating ice storm event loomed for areas south of a line from Muncie to Indianapolis to Terra Haute.<br />
<br />
In the end, warm air and a dry slot staved off the ice storm and locally, we were hammered with sleet. In fact three inches of it fell across the county. A bit north however they were pummeled. Chicago had the infamous shots of Lake Shore Drive being shut down with stranded cars and lake effect snow produced three feet in South Bend.<br />
<br />
I did nail the prediction of three snow days for county schools but busted on my call of 6-10 inches of snow with 1-2 inches of sleet. <br />
<br />
We also did receive the constellation prize on the following Saturday when we received our biggest snow of the season when 6 inches fell in a very peaceful storm.<br />
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<div style="color: red;">
<b>Winter 2010-2011 Ends Early</b></div>
<br />
Another potent storm system was forecast for the 25th of February. I had forecast 4-7 inches thinking my 7 could be on the low side. The National Weather Service had us for 6 inches. However dry air again crept in and brought the totals down. I recorded 4 inches and that was the last measurable snow for the season. A couple more trace events occurred leaving us with a season total of 34.3 inches and 5 snow days for the county schools.<br />
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<div style="color: red;">
<b>Severe Weather Season Starts Early</b></div>
<br />
No sooner had winter breathed it's last gasp of (dry) air did severe weather season begin on February 26th. It did not amount to anything significant locally and March which followed was rather boring. It wasn't until April when severe weather season really kicked in.<br />
<br />
While tornadoes and severe weather made headlines across the state with a record with 72 confirmed tornadoes, the closes any came were Cass and Grant Counties which had two each.<br />
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<br />
Nationally, there was a late start but then several significant outbreaks which caused an unthinkable about of tornado related deaths. I mention it because with spotters, chasers, sophisticated radar, and advanced early warning systems, you would think people would be in shelters when storms hit.<br />
<br />
While many of the deaths can be attributed to unusually violent tornadoes hitting populated areas, many still didn't head the warnings or even pay attention to the watches issued hours in advance. Regular readers of my blog know I preach being alert, situational awareness, and to think about what to do and were to go when severe weather happens. We don't always have the luxury of being home or having a basement when severe weather strikes.<br />
<br />
<div style="color: red;">
<b>A Warm Summer</b></div>
<br />
Summer started early with 90 degree readings by the middle of May. Weather became rather boring once summer arrived. About the only thing weather fanatics could do besides lament the boredom with weather was to see if we could break a record or hit the century mark.<br />
<br />
Kokomo finally hit 100 degrees on July 21st. It had been more than ten years since the last 100 degree reading.<br />
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<br />
Indianapolis broke the old record for consecutive 90 degree days. A new record of 23 days in a row was set between July 17th and August 8th. Summer was warm overall and while we didn't see below normal precipitation, much of Indiana did.<br />
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For the <i>year</i>, pretty much everything east of the Rockies saw above normal above average temperatures. <br />
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The summer months of June, July, & August were dry but the other months have made up for it pushing us well above normal for year.<br />
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Fall was pretty quiet on the weather front too. So quiet I didn't write much about it.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">The Start of Winter</span> </b><br />
<br />
I did put out my <a href="http://kokomo-weather.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-2012-winter-outlook.html" target="_blank">Composite Winter Outlook for 2011-2012</a> on November 1st. Like most, I went with a cold and snow start for December. It has been anything but. While the precipitation was there, the cold has never materialized.<br />
<br />
There is pretty good bet too that the long term patter stays warm for January too. The first part of shows continued warmth for the most part. A short term cold show will user in the 2012 though.<br />
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<div style="color: red;">
<b>Social Media</b></div>
<br />
If you have not done so already, I want to encourage you to Like <a href="https://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather" target="_blank">Kokomo Weather</a> on Facebook. While I continue to use the blog for bigger events, short term musings usually end up there or on <a href="http://twitter.com/kokomoweather" target="_blank">Twitter</a> where I can banter in 140 characters or less.<br />
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<div style="color: red;">
<b>Acknowledgements & Friends</b></div>
<br />
No doubt there are others who share my passion for the weather. Locally I speak often with a handful of users and want to share their websites with you.<br />
<br />
<b>7<a href="http://765weather.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">65 Weather</a></b> - Over in Lafayette, they are blessed with Tim and his vast knowledge of weather history. About any kind of weather phenomenon, Tim can crunch the numbers and tell you the extremes or averages for dates, years, seasons, or storms. I encourage you to check out his blog from time to time.<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://indianadoes.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Indiana Tornadoes</a></b> - The title should give away the focus of Ryan's blog. He keeps track of tornado events in Indiana plus other weather facts. <br />
<br />
(Thank goodness for Tim and Ryan and their memory for weather. I am blessed with their knowledge often.)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://moewx.com/" target="_blank"><b>Maurice Shammel</b></a> - is a trained meteorologist in Evansville and shared his deep knowledge of the weather with the Tri-State area and Indiana. Not enough can be said about his invaluable expertise.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.indywx.com/" target="_blank"><b>IndyWX</b></a> - Bill also is a regular forecaster for this area of Indiana. Always enjoy reading his take on the weather and evolving patterns.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">About Me</span> </b><br />
<br />
For those who don't know, I work full time in K-12 education in Information Technology, am active in Howard County EMA in communications, am a licensed amateur radio operator beginning in 1975, and work part time professionally in photography. If I'm not on the sideline of a sporting event, I'm usually somewhere at a marching band or winter guard event.<br />
<br />
I also enjoy the weather even though I have no formal training, I can do a good job with short term forecasting and focus on Kokomo and Howard County. You may have already guess but I am not a fan of boring weather. While some find it odd, at 50 years old, I still love snow and lots of it too. I also maintain a weather station at my home and that is where the updates on the main webpage some originate from. <br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: yellow;">Most importantly, thanks for being a visitor to Kokomo-Weather. </span></b></i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-83036354768789402112011-12-29T15:25:00.001-05:002011-12-29T15:25:30.737-05:00A rather quiet month for winter. Also quite warm. The good news is the patter looks to be changing for the better (if you are a winter lover).<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-16886670506438709192011-11-30T01:43:00.001-05:002011-11-30T19:11:21.479-05:00Quick ObservationThe HRRR Model was pretty consistent all day with its hourly forecasts. You can see the how the heaviest snow forecast and the current IDHS (Indiana Department of Homeland Security) restricted travel map lines up rather nicely.<br />
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I updated it to add the snowcover and cooperative snowfall map. Again, the HRRR rocked this one.<br />
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Here is the NWS <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=nov292011snow" target="_blank">story</a> on this system. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXa_oiZiDNRKwT5mV2vKuaV8G4m2Ox7MLrXQ5Ixm2tdBW5RlWE6QeVvJX7s6zxek9vq7W6aQZXwIk4HDj0pExzCilOLMteerHsGmYTnYADscMDR_4HLgGwMcSBLwCaKD21dYeO6Y_LmuI/s1600/_____HRRR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXa_oiZiDNRKwT5mV2vKuaV8G4m2Ox7MLrXQ5Ixm2tdBW5RlWE6QeVvJX7s6zxek9vq7W6aQZXwIk4HDj0pExzCilOLMteerHsGmYTnYADscMDR_4HLgGwMcSBLwCaKD21dYeO6Y_LmuI/s320/_____HRRR.png" width="303" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik5SRvotwVpcj6s5NUBRSjsLDaphSjZQDb9Lok8me1aqdZgdAvKdw2F5VA61VMF9wZnoofAOT9_zE2fu4kfdMX61E1wCsN2xTJ-tsgM4i-C2PhVnsztw-QuJbS8sq3lwaBfFs0mo29jdg/s1600/__IDHS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik5SRvotwVpcj6s5NUBRSjsLDaphSjZQDb9Lok8me1aqdZgdAvKdw2F5VA61VMF9wZnoofAOT9_zE2fu4kfdMX61E1wCsN2xTJ-tsgM4i-C2PhVnsztw-QuJbS8sq3lwaBfFs0mo29jdg/s320/__IDHS.png" width="238" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-24726543236051455742011-11-29T12:07:00.001-05:002011-11-29T12:09:28.981-05:00Updated Forecast: 4-8"All things point to Howard County getting right into the heaviest snow path. It isn't very wide so it was difficult to forecast but everything is lining up very nicely. At this point, I think 4-8" us likely across the county. Enjoy!<br />
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Join us on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather">Facebook</a> or <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/KokomoWeather">Twitter</a> too! <br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-73526184783403595652011-11-28T22:38:00.001-05:002011-11-28T22:42:01.580-05:00Rain & SnowAm impressive amount of rain will continue to fall through Tuesday afternoon when it changes to snow. The NAM model continues to impress with 8+ inches of snow. I so think it is high and this banding for the best snow will be rather narrow and the cut off quite sharp. Small shifts or thermal differences will have huge implications. <br />
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At this point I am forecasting 1-3" of snow and will continue to monitor the progress tomorrow as the event unfolds. Mini updates on Facebook and Twitter.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-865354279734104182011-11-25T19:58:00.001-05:002011-11-25T20:03:51.540-05:00Possible Snow Event...November may end with a small rain changing over to snow event. The bulk of the precipitation passes as rain as the cold air hurries to catch up. However it does produce a small amount of snow. We are about 3 1/2 days away from the main event so the fine details remain uncertain. It will be the fine details which will mean the difference between a dusting to several inches. A delay for school on Tuesday is somewhat probable at this point...<br />
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Here the the two most recent runs of the GFS (12z (7 am) and 18z (1 PM)). You can see the snow band is rather narrow and it is moving around between model runs. That can make or break on what we score. <br />
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I won't be around on Saturday until the evening. I'll update the forecast then but don't be surprised if you start to see other forecasters start to mention it more seriously tomorrow. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-68986264807217351502011-11-12T16:59:00.001-05:002012-02-14T08:27:45.503-05:002011-2012 Snowfall TotalsSnow Total: 20" & 2 Trace | Snow Days: 0<br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i style="color: yellow;">Winter Forecast: 35" | Snow Days Predicted: 4</i></span><br />
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11/10/11 - T<br />
<a href="http://kokomo-weather.blogspot.com/2011/11/quick-observation.html" target="_blank">11/29/11</a> - 5" (School Delay)<br />
12/8/11 - 0.5" (Overnight/Moisture Starved Clipper)<br />
12/27/11 - 2" (Heavy/Wet Snow)<br />
1/2/12 - 0.5" (LES)<br />
1/12-13/12 - 2" (School Delay)<br />
1/13-14/12 - 0.5" (Flurries)<br />
1/19/12 - 3" (Daytime Clipper)<br />
1/20/12 - 2.5" (Messy)<br />
1/25/12 - 0.5"<br />
1/27/12 - T<br />
2/8/12 - 1" (NW School Delay)<br />
2/10-11/12 - 1" (Includes LES)<br />
2/13-14/12 - 1.5" (Quite different from 5 years ago.) <br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-6206881871564796772011-11-02T22:01:00.001-04:002011-11-02T22:01:24.254-04:00The 2011 - 2012 Winter Outlook<div class="MsoNormal">
Before we talk about this winter, let’s take a brief look
back at last winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The revisit is not
pleasant for me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was a blown
forecast, some heartbreak misses, and a physical injury to top it all off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I thought last winter would be mild and feature no significant
snow storms for Kokomo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
temperatures, I had forecast a cold start to winter with a warming overall with
us finishing up with slightly above average for winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While we did start quite cold in December,
January remained below average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>February
did climb above normal but the damage was already done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We finished with more than 2 degrees below normal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I completely fail with the snowfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A top ten winter was never even in my wildest
dreams but I happened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>I measured 34.3” with 6 trace amounts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Kokomo is not an official reporting location
for climate data, we average about 24” or so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Indianapolis recorded their 7<sup>th</sup> snowiest winter on
record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My prediction was slightly below average with
22 to 24”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Where I totally failed was with my snow day forecast for the
county school.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After several successful years
of predictions, I am not even sure I deserve credit for trying.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I said there would be no snow days but
instead there were five missed days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However
there were just two instances to get these five days.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first instance was January 11-12.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first day was not true snow day since
school started on time but they did dismiss very early. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was all planned and while I could have not
counted it, in other years I would have so I took the hit this time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was just 4.5” overall but it was enough to
get the job done.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What could have been historic for Kokomo ended up being big disappointment
after it was over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forecast models were
showing 2+ feet of snow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Yeah,
feet!)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While we knew that was overdone,
I did go with 10” plus a couple of inches of sleet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The forecasts for south of here were for an apocalyptic
ice storm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many heeded the forecast and
bought generators.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I bought one.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This event unfolded with two waves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first wave was significantly weaker than
expected and the second wave turned out to be a sleet storm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An inch of snow and three inches sleet was
what I decided to recorded for the event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The mess did result in more three snow days for the season. It
also resulted in my wife falling on the sleet and breaking her arm.
That made for an unpleasant six weeks. <br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The one bright spot was the very unexpected snow on Saturday
February 5<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Six inches fell
and was the biggest snow of the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There were 18 measurable snow events staring on December 1<sup>st</sup>
and ending on February 25<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just a couple of trace amounts were measured after that date.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I do look back on last winter with some frustration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many places got pounded with snow and we just
missed more than a few times.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red;">
<b>So how does the winter of 2011 – 2012 look?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One word: Awesome!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For the record, I am not a trained meteorologist or skilled
in long range forecasting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am
generally a short range forecaster but love winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For months, I read and analyze many other forecasts
and weigh each one taking into their past verification records in addition to
their skill set in meteorology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Add in a
few sprinkles of my own here and there and we have my winter outlook.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With that said, here we go…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The consensus seems to be cold and snowy for the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Temperatures will be more volatile this winter compared to
last with deep intrusions of cold pushing down from Canada but then relaxing
with surges of warmth from the south.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many
forecasters have thought winter would start off significantly with December being
much below normal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The models have been
hinting at a big flip to winter in the last half of November so that call looks
like a good one.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
January is where we will begin to experience the up and down
swings in temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The swings in
temperatures will produce a variety of weather.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Unlike last winter were we avoided severe weather, the likelihood for severe
weather seems elevated for this winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
February will see more moderation in temperatures but still
some cold shots.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A volatile season will also likely extend winter into
March.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The past two winters didn’t
feature any measurable snow past the last week of February but I expect some snow
in March this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So how much snow will we see this winter?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A couple of very favorable snow tracks will be in play this
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alberta Clippers will be
responsible for frequent smaller snows of 2 to 4”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Occasionally a clipper can be an over
performer and surprise us with 5 to 6 plus inches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clippers make light and fluffy snow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is easy to shovel.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The best snows for Kokomo come from low pressure systems
which originate on the east side of Colorado.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These usually produce the heavy wet snow and have the accompanying winds
to cause considerable drifting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Expect
several of these tracks to be featured this winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
December’s cold will help with several smaller snow
events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Normal snowfall of 7 to 8” seems
about right.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
January snow will see increased chances for snow with the
last half of the month the most likely time frame for a significant snowstorm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Above average snow will 12 to 15” of
accumulating snow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That of course can go
up rapidly with a big system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
February will see just a handful of snows but the first week
will again be the best time for a bigger storm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Snow will measure 8 to 10” for
the month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
March should see a good snowstorm this year with 4 to 6” of
accumulation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By winters end, we could see nearly 40” of snow but will
likely be close to 35”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The previous two
winters were 32” and 34” and this once should fall right in line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One thing I do not see is an elevated threat
for ice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red;">
<b>Snow Days</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The frequent clipper snows will produce many two hour delays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However the heavier wet snows will close
schools this winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the Howard
County Schools, I predict 4 weather related closings this winter.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That is the forecast for the Howard County winter and this
is a high confidence forecast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Enjoy.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-34874470411555798362011-07-21T21:41:00.000-04:002011-07-21T21:41:05.099-04:00Century MarkThe heat wave is miserable and today it seems we have recorded our first triple digit temperature in more than 10 years.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG1Ct9Mkj1AQMy94tH4vgOCAGn-f-yk0ohOJrK-dIcaBgi9LUvnKXfDBP0350Dxqzm1l8gnsdCf2nkTiRiGo4zIXRnLA2JvWM6AZKXprgSyba0p8_azrK3Sd6TuCRUZrf4-TTc1GKIu5o/s1600/100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG1Ct9Mkj1AQMy94tH4vgOCAGn-f-yk0ohOJrK-dIcaBgi9LUvnKXfDBP0350Dxqzm1l8gnsdCf2nkTiRiGo4zIXRnLA2JvWM6AZKXprgSyba0p8_azrK3Sd6TuCRUZrf4-TTc1GKIu5o/s320/100.jpg" width="311" /></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-27123648002413248702011-07-10T20:45:00.001-04:002011-07-10T20:48:57.152-04:00Severe Weather & HeatIt's been a while since we chatted about the weather. Other than the storms which rolled through Saturday of July 2nd weekend, it has been pretty boring weather. It has been hot and for some parts of the country, it has been record setting. Locally though it has been just +2 to +4 degrees above normal since June 1.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyVPDb3zPzG0TvU9D8bCAa3FtHeUPJjzYHZz2yB07F8PwHxD42h3hs9kVhxvHoVjdzPNV14J80vtlinfcaF1kEa__Rk8JWMJfCIjZJW64X79WAcz0-IHpx7lXuwcP1xqyWOrzB1CBtR_8/s1600/Last1mTDeptMRCC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyVPDb3zPzG0TvU9D8bCAa3FtHeUPJjzYHZz2yB07F8PwHxD42h3hs9kVhxvHoVjdzPNV14J80vtlinfcaF1kEa__Rk8JWMJfCIjZJW64X79WAcz0-IHpx7lXuwcP1xqyWOrzB1CBtR_8/s320/Last1mTDeptMRCC.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWx1vDObhaOFfAlttXBkOuC8CSHdAC0D9Sj8PRQIANJ3JUmOOtWGl-c2Y-3qp7SQYCa-UtuSYqttl3FbPnLqERJvfWpaedu-4266yehkUre3MF5DnwFm4SN-vNjlk87SZZzrMlfkhd3pM/s1600/MonthTDeptMRCC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWx1vDObhaOFfAlttXBkOuC8CSHdAC0D9Sj8PRQIANJ3JUmOOtWGl-c2Y-3qp7SQYCa-UtuSYqttl3FbPnLqERJvfWpaedu-4266yehkUre3MF5DnwFm4SN-vNjlk87SZZzrMlfkhd3pM/s320/MonthTDeptMRCC.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
More heat is on the way for Monday & Tuesday. While the actual temperature will just be in the low 90s, heat indexes will be in the 100s approaching 110. Take it easy if outdoors. Below are the Monday and Tuesday heat indexes. Quite a large area is oppressive heat.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgurqoNLImXV-ihHQfJ9RZOTiu4upp62Ql3R_F4S45AV_Z8bIRMVrOtHQmTC1GAesKseuPGW8yB2WykD3i7hDquaukgw35xhAmiJNS1al7Vm-S_BU7OyjxdktDHcLxJ4IO0QHojAk9S5d0/s1600/HOT-MONDAY.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgurqoNLImXV-ihHQfJ9RZOTiu4upp62Ql3R_F4S45AV_Z8bIRMVrOtHQmTC1GAesKseuPGW8yB2WykD3i7hDquaukgw35xhAmiJNS1al7Vm-S_BU7OyjxdktDHcLxJ4IO0QHojAk9S5d0/s320/HOT-MONDAY.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO5ff3wgw58lbthFOX1SaqkkMyEFTbmHNKKZ-N8Jo4boLv4CPAFAMf6eDGY8j4nHIsPQC5iH7qYKLku_4NiTGrlrK9dSqG-HB-5-J1k19ObelRwu7YjfN2HoSecpUFQZduUvVttpzIFq4/s1600/HOT-TUESDAY.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO5ff3wgw58lbthFOX1SaqkkMyEFTbmHNKKZ-N8Jo4boLv4CPAFAMf6eDGY8j4nHIsPQC5iH7qYKLku_4NiTGrlrK9dSqG-HB-5-J1k19ObelRwu7YjfN2HoSecpUFQZduUvVttpzIFq4/s320/HOT-TUESDAY.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Heat isn't the only thing happening this week. Monday & Tuesday will feature scattered thunderstorms. Some will reach severe limits as there is ample instability available. CAPE values, a measure of instability, are quite high for both days. I will be watching anything that forms tomorrow. The SPC has already placed us in a slight risk for both days.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIOmi2NzvhIJdmtGXC2KLwKKGjF1Jzy3RnG8PpzlKnhFuVxqirgihELyzr0ojmTjduZCuXT3K-NscevUFOjXJfwHzJIpKTOpiaKYdvH1UAlHfskOg_Im6sP520ePJFk3uUL11IihjneAk/s1600/USA_CAPE_sfc_030.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIOmi2NzvhIJdmtGXC2KLwKKGjF1Jzy3RnG8PpzlKnhFuVxqirgihELyzr0ojmTjduZCuXT3K-NscevUFOjXJfwHzJIpKTOpiaKYdvH1UAlHfskOg_Im6sP520ePJFk3uUL11IihjneAk/s320/USA_CAPE_sfc_030.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivORzVpZDmbxIwhDqE9E4mVzDZ0u5ct51pt-M0yXmXGjvwV3VWx7V2xyjZKeRKyFyb9m1xVCfhz2zw32jXlgi8VQmA1F2FXHG3IvuY49k4-HlCMj1igsimy9-LJMEt-1202t5KKVtfVoc/s1600/USA_CAPE_sfc_054.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivORzVpZDmbxIwhDqE9E4mVzDZ0u5ct51pt-M0yXmXGjvwV3VWx7V2xyjZKeRKyFyb9m1xVCfhz2zw32jXlgi8VQmA1F2FXHG3IvuY49k4-HlCMj1igsimy9-LJMEt-1202t5KKVtfVoc/s320/USA_CAPE_sfc_054.gif" width="320" /></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-14724159983420846612011-06-24T15:27:00.000-04:002011-06-24T15:27:24.296-04:00Please Attend Amateur Radio Field DayKokomo area “hams” will join with thousands of Amateur Radio operators who will be showing off their emergency capabilities this weekend. Over the past year, the news has been full of reports of ham radio operators providing critical communications during unexpected emergencies in towns across America including the California wildfires, winter storms, tornadoes and other events worldwide. During Hurricane Katrina, Amateur Radio – often called “Ham Radio” - was often the ONLY way people could communicate, and hundreds of volunteer “hams” traveled south to save lives and property. <br />
<br />
When trouble is brewing, Amateur Radio’s people are often the first to provide rescuers with critical information and communications. On the weekend of June 25-26, the public will have a chance to meet and talk with Kokomo area ham radio operators and see for themselves what the Amateur Radio Service is about. Showing the newest digital and satellite capabilities, voice communications and even historical Morse code, hams from across the USA will be holding public demonstrations of emergency communications abilities.<br />
<br />
This annual event, called "Field Day" is the climax of the week long "Amateur Radio Week" sponsored by the ARRL, the national association for Amateur Radio. Using only emergency power supplies, ham operators will construct emergency stations in parks, shopping malls, schools and backyards around the country. Their slogan, "When All Else Fails, Ham Radio Works” is more than just words to the hams as they prove they can send messages in many forms without the use of phone systems, internet or any other infrastructure that can be compromised in a crisis.<br />
<br />
The Howard County Kokomo Amateur Radio Club Field Day will be held at Northwestern High School in the area of the football stadium. On-air operations will begin on Saturday, June 25th at 1:00 p.m. and will be ongoing around the clock until approximately noon on Sunday June 26th. Everyone is invited to observe operations or even try their hand at the microphone as we contact other "hams" across the United States and Canada. For more information, contact Ron Julius at 765-628-3520.<br />
<br />
Here are some photos from 2010 when we operated from EMA on Berkley Road.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAXmv52nxaZFxhvgY-0Jpjul3a837WrQeEEgbZT3yjTB6rFzkZcAhHP6_78pKr2MvUXS1f6n1SxuPTShPNYRnoxMbYjU361vDgc2btiUO6_ewVehTMigwd5a9AB8e7HZ_8M6wqLVQCyhU/s1600/FD1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAXmv52nxaZFxhvgY-0Jpjul3a837WrQeEEgbZT3yjTB6rFzkZcAhHP6_78pKr2MvUXS1f6n1SxuPTShPNYRnoxMbYjU361vDgc2btiUO6_ewVehTMigwd5a9AB8e7HZ_8M6wqLVQCyhU/s320/FD1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1axPusOTpCRWK045J0twgqXrEju_vdAxvlMCBYv5wk_eu_C757vuCyQoaVM1D8pl5Z7ec0_jnwp839IdbItdsi6pSHabE6OLb6MwTNpfHk3rwArqn1wgYyOI7RL852I62m9UCanDtSsQ/s1600/FD8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1axPusOTpCRWK045J0twgqXrEju_vdAxvlMCBYv5wk_eu_C757vuCyQoaVM1D8pl5Z7ec0_jnwp839IdbItdsi6pSHabE6OLb6MwTNpfHk3rwArqn1wgYyOI7RL852I62m9UCanDtSsQ/s320/FD8.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-49585266308592870982011-06-21T12:38:00.002-04:002011-06-21T12:40:04.704-04:00Tuesday Noon UpdateSevere weather is likely this afternoon with damaging winds and hail being the largest threat. A small tornado threat exists but is not the main concern for our area.<br />
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The advancing upper level low and slightly negative trough will influence the weather for our area today and tomorrow. Storms should begin forming sometime later this afternoon and continue through the evening.<br />
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Clearing is allowing the atmosphere to become charged and unlike yesterday where there was a strong cap to inhibit convection, today's cap is much weaker and should be broken easily. CAPE valuse, a sign of instability, are already extremely high for the area. The significant severe index is also high and you can see some storm activity in Illinois already.<br />
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Also the KIND radar is Indianapolis remains offline after a direct lightning hit yesterday. No word on its return to service. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ63z3JcxbHp7Ykt2sKBHwPnCKfWyyudM6lS167amyQ9bkrXShPesAit_MzwWaysDU5nIYbDW8pjdW-AFYc_-vxmZdsO9ti0lcxj1HGfYyOKZlSW71K65sxN1CkIMf4UeW3fjrrg0Yqdc/s1600/Neg-Tilt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ63z3JcxbHp7Ykt2sKBHwPnCKfWyyudM6lS167amyQ9bkrXShPesAit_MzwWaysDU5nIYbDW8pjdW-AFYc_-vxmZdsO9ti0lcxj1HGfYyOKZlSW71K65sxN1CkIMf4UeW3fjrrg0Yqdc/s320/Neg-Tilt.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0naw1X-FtO4B0zvUS28nMusYAfKOP6oREU0UHtF9Tf-uJTKhQRlYLcAC8YxuedF-sc_KegVn_2CwEQ0JWlJ2WAWRkuKiuqMbVKFOhunTk4-VvU6wqxYZC6lExWvveOZtDcmD0tlL6vQ/s1600/SigSevere.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0naw1X-FtO4B0zvUS28nMusYAfKOP6oREU0UHtF9Tf-uJTKhQRlYLcAC8YxuedF-sc_KegVn_2CwEQ0JWlJ2WAWRkuKiuqMbVKFOhunTk4-VvU6wqxYZC6lExWvveOZtDcmD0tlL6vQ/s320/SigSevere.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTfQBUEte38LL_vAkXqsN6KzPWJ7YCKk8WBSL_kDZgbfUBxlA1wrdSflEq7CywGAfbpCDEB3m-2hyphenhyphen3ruUw4Qo0sxybE7PlcAnFPJRdtVIm6rX-nWL0okpAnh3mnoTdmzi4OKh9HCNEbyc/s1600/Radar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTfQBUEte38LL_vAkXqsN6KzPWJ7YCKk8WBSL_kDZgbfUBxlA1wrdSflEq7CywGAfbpCDEB3m-2hyphenhyphen3ruUw4Qo0sxybE7PlcAnFPJRdtVIm6rX-nWL0okpAnh3mnoTdmzi4OKh9HCNEbyc/s320/Radar.png" width="320" /></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-31964358914059855982011-06-21T07:02:00.000-04:002011-06-21T08:02:54.205-04:00Severe Weather for TuesdayLate last week, if anyone had told me that the City-County Major League Championship would be on schedule after three days of action, I would have laughed and said no way. Even yesterday morning when the rains were moving across the county I was thinking postponements were eminent. <br />
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Instead mother nature didn't produce over the weekend and yesterday, games were moved to diamonds that were not submerged and play continued on Monday evening. Still I think that today we will see some postponements for thunderstorms action later this afternoon.<br />
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An upper level low will slowly makes it way across the upper great lakes today and tomorrow and will drag with it chances for severe weather and of course, more rain. Storms will pinwheel around the low pressure system bringing multiple rounds of convection.<br />
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I don't think either the RUC or HRRR models have a good handle on the afternoon and evening convection. Like the previous three days, it will be a lot of nowcasting but unlike yesterday, the CAP will be minimal to things should get going today.<br />
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Quick updates on Facebook and twitter...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-27693761927387995122011-06-20T13:00:00.000-04:002011-06-20T13:00:39.257-04:00Severe Weather Monday Afternoon & Evening?Usually this much heavy rain early in the day settles down the atmosphere so later day convection doesn't happen. However the <a href="http://www.kokomo-weather.com/RUC/ruc_run_IWX.php?rucstation=KGVS">RUC</a> shows a different story as does the SERF for later today.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgggwuKYe-IllSr8ghW1KRAnZPp1e5CGfeoy5DbwFV88HuiW4-wOWHGoxYaytR36qvfYWsAxUqxUtGViw4ov-zlelQDJmnhuanR74trgGLoMX5vmOFQ4vAcjpvedJSAA3friT5t2BkeFvU/s1600/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgggwuKYe-IllSr8ghW1KRAnZPp1e5CGfeoy5DbwFV88HuiW4-wOWHGoxYaytR36qvfYWsAxUqxUtGViw4ov-zlelQDJmnhuanR74trgGLoMX5vmOFQ4vAcjpvedJSAA3friT5t2BkeFvU/s320/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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Chad at Channel 18 is also on board the severe weather idea for later today. He has a nice write up on his <a href="http://blogs.wlfi.com/2011/06/20/37801/">blog</a> about it.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3474158374292438030.post-60551058383757740462011-06-18T13:41:00.000-04:002011-06-18T13:41:02.451-04:00Rain? Yes! Severe? Probably Not...Things have changed with this morning model runs. The severe weather threat had drastically diminished for today and most importantly tomorrow. The tornado threat is gone. The most recent Day 2 shows the change in thinking from the SPC. <br />
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