Kokomo, IN Weather

A Scary Sunday Night Ahead

2012-01-22T15:04:00.000-05:00

Severe weather is a concern anytime but when it happens in the darkness, it is downright scary. Tonight's storms will still be just a forecast even for those who stay up late to catch the 11 PM news. Storms likely won't enter western Indiana until after midnight. Kokomo until 1 to 2 AM and maybe even as late as 3 AM as the front has been slowing down all day.

Here is the latest HRRR forecast for 3 AM and you can see the line extending well up into Michigan. Temperatures and dew points will have surged to near 50 locally and instability while not nearly as strong the southern portion of the state is more than ample for straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.

Even with just an isolated tornado threat, the likelihood of a significant wind knocking down trees and power likes and weak structures is great.

Here is the latest SPC outlook. Kokomo is in the slight risk area. It has pretty much been that way all day.

There won't be much to update until later this evening. We are just awaiting the storm...

For Monday, we have this to look forward to...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST

MONDAY.

* TIMING...700 AM TO 500 PM

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS

AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED

OBJECTS  OUTSIDE. SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY

FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Tricky Friday Forecast

2012-01-19T22:08:00.001-05:00

Today was a surprise. While accumulating snow was expected, the 4 inches which fell was not. Clippers can change track which this did and like we always hope, this one over performed. Tomorrow could turn out the same.

The weather will be in your face the minute you step out the door on Friday morning. It will be zero or even colder. Easily the coldest night of the season. Other than the cold, the morning should be uneventful.

Snow picks up in the afternoon and will be going as good as it gets by the dinner hour. While this won't be as big of a snow as today, it will add to it. There could be mixing issues. Two systems are coming together and exactly where that converges will have big implications for they type of precipitation we receive.

Snow and mixed precipitation will continue through Saturday morning. I can see Saturday morning be rather messy for anyone on the road until mid morning.

Follow along tomorrow on Facebook as we see how this plays out. I'm thinking a couple of inches of snow and a touch of freezing rain or sleet.

Oh, two hour delay for tomorrow. Slick roads and cold temps make it seem logical. :)

Temps Diving...

2012-01-12T13:32:00.003-05:00

Remember Friday (or even Tuesday)?

Don't forget to join us on Facebook to share in the conversation.

A True Winter Storm

2012-01-12T06:51:00.001-05:00

This should feel like a true winter storm. Temperatures will plunge until reaching single digits be Saturday morning. Strong winds will blow snow, reducing visibility and causing sub zero wind chills.

Just before 7 AM, you can see surface temperatures and the thickness line for snow crossing the border into the state.

Don't expect much relief until Monday either. Hope your ready for a weekend of hunkering down.

[Updated] Snowstorm Alert!

2012-01-11T13:45:00.003-05:00

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THUR TO 1 PMEST FRIDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY.

* TIMING.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT.SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THUR EVENING &FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HRS.

* OTHER IMPACTS.BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DRIFTING& REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS.3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE N. COUNTIES/2 TO

4 INCHES ACROSSTHE CNTL PORTIONS OF CNTL IN/1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE S. COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OFSNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVEREDROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THATVISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USECAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

-------------

I must admit, the system up until yesterday seem rather anemic for moisture. The surface low looked to move a bit faster to the east and the cold was a slower to arrive. I didn't pay much attention to the system still thinking an inch or two drawn out over a 24 to 36 hour period would really be nothing more than a tease and nuisance.

However the models now seem to agree with a slow moving system with the cold catching up and a deepening sub 990 low pressure. All of that combined will produce a pretty good snow maker for a large area of the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley.

That said, we still are on the southern edge and are dependent on the slow movement and wrap around moisture enhanced by Lake Michigan. There is a lot which would go wrong.

Focusing on the positives, the modest amount of snow will be wind blown for a solid 24 to 30 hours. This snow will be a high ratio snow so limited moisture 12:1 to 17:1 can still produce a fair amount of accumulations. We won't have to deal with the heavy wet snow knowing down trees and power lines which is good news.

Yesterday, I made the off hand comment on the Facebook page that I didn't expect to see any cancellations or even delays. That thinking has also changed.

So lets break it down...

At 7 AM on Thursday, we have a lull in precipitation and the rain/snow line is just moving into western Indiana.

By1 PM in the afternoon, snow is cranking as are the winds. Over the next 6 hours, expect a couple of inches to fall and winds to become sustained near 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH. I think any evening activities will be cancelled.

Thursday evening has the rain/snow line through Ohio. The slow moving low pressure continues to deepen as the wind driven snow makes conditions difficult. We are also heading for real temperatures in the teen and wind chills below zero. The 50's from recent will be just a memory.

The bulk of the snow will be over by mid morning on Friday. The winds will remain strong with gust to near 30 MPH through the afternoon before easing up a bit. Snow accumulations will be on the order of 4 to 6 inches with drifting. I just don't see area schools being in session on Friday.

Some flurries could continue through the weekend and no rise above freezing until Monday.

For me, I'm preparing for a 4 day/3 might camping trip in Hoosier National Forest this weekend. (The wife thinks I am nuts and she will be home nice and warm with the two dogs.) I say bring it on! :)

There could be more snow as early as Tuesday of next week too.

2011: Looking Back

2011-12-31T15:41:00.000-05:00

A brief recap of 2011 is all that is needed for a year which didn't feature many memorable events for weather in Howard County. While this was a year for extreme weather for many portions of the United States, Kokomo & Howard County pretty such sat out for all but one.

Ground Hog Day Blizzard 2011

After seeing the big snow storms hitting the east coast, it was nice for us to be in the bullseye for once. The talk on the Internet between weather hobbyists began much earlier than any of the public forecast discussions from the National Weather Service or broadcast media.

I hinted at the snow event 9 days in advance and started sharing more detailed forecasts 6 days in advance.

Forecast models had latched on rather early and some of the snow accumulations were very impressive to beyond believable. Some had 2+ feet of snow across our area. The timing was particularity troublesome for such a significant storm. It was to begin Monday evening and on Saturday, the public was still generally unaware a potentially historic snow storm was a little more than 48 hours away.

Synoptically this storm had a remakable resenbence to the Valentines Day Storm of 2007. That should still be fresh enough in most peoples minds to know how bad things got around the area.

I truly felt many would be unprepared including some vital services so for the first time, I contact Howard County Emergency Management's Director and filled him in on what I was thinking. We went back and forth and I know he passed along my forecast to the Howard County Highway Department.

By Sunday morning, the National Weather Service was on board with the idea of a significant weather event and began alerting the public. Broadcast media also followed suit. Besides significant snow amounts, a likely more devastating ice storm event loomed for areas south of a line from Muncie to Indianapolis to Terra Haute.

In the end, warm air and a dry slot staved off the ice storm and locally, we were hammered with sleet. In fact three inches of it fell across the county. A bit north however they were pummeled. Chicago had the infamous shots of Lake Shore Drive being shut down with stranded cars and lake effect snow produced three feet in South Bend.

I did nail the prediction of three snow days for county schools but busted on my call of 6-10 inches of snow with 1-2 inches of sleet.

We also did receive the constellation prize on the following Saturday when we received our biggest snow of the season when 6 inches fell in a very peaceful storm.

Winter 2010-2011 Ends Early

Another potent storm system was forecast for the 25th of February. I had forecast 4-7 inches thinking my 7 could be on the low side. The National Weather Service had us for 6 inches. However dry air again crept in and brought the totals down. I recorded 4 inches and that was the last measurable snow for the season. A couple more trace events occurred leaving us with a season total of 34.3 inches and 5 snow days for the county schools.

Severe Weather Season Starts Early

No sooner had winter breathed it's last gasp of (dry) air did severe weather season begin on February 26th. It did not amount to anything significant locally and March which followed was rather boring. It wasn't until April when severe weather season really kicked in.

While tornadoes and severe weather made headlines across the state with a record with 72 confirmed tornadoes, the closes any came were Cass and Grant Counties which had two each.

Nationally, there was a late start but then several significant outbreaks which caused an unthinkable about of tornado related deaths. I mention it because with spotters, chasers, sophisticated radar, and advanced early warning systems, you would think people would be in shelters when storms hit.

While many of the deaths can be attributed to unusually violent tornadoes hitting populated areas, many still didn't head the warnings or even pay attention to the watches issued hours in advance. Regular readers of my blog know I preach being alert, situational awareness, and to think about what to do and were to go when severe weather happens. We don't always have the luxury of being home or having a basement when severe weather strikes.

A Warm Summer

Summer started early with 90 degree readings by the middle of May. Weather became rather boring once summer arrived. About the only thing weather fanatics could do besides lament the boredom with weather was to see if we could break a record or hit the century mark.

Kokomo finally hit 100 degrees on July 21st. It had been more than ten years since the last 100 degree reading.

Indianapolis broke the old record for consecutive 90 degree days. A new record of 23 days in a row was set between July 17th and August 8th. Summer was warm overall and while we didn't see below normal precipitation, much of Indiana did.

For the year, pretty much everything east of the Rockies saw above normal above average temperatures.

The summer months of June, July, & August were dry but the other months have made up for it pushing us well above normal for year.

Fall was pretty quiet on the weather front too. So quiet I didn't write much about it.

The Start of Winter

I did put out my Composite Winter Outlook for 2011-2012 on November 1st. Like most, I went with a cold and snow start for December. It has been anything but. While the precipitation was there, the cold has never materialized.

There is pretty good bet too that the long term patter stays warm for January too. The first part of shows continued warmth for the most part. A short term cold show will user in the 2012 though.

Social Media

If you have not done so already, I want to encourage you to Like Kokomo Weather on Facebook. While I continue to use the blog for bigger events, short term musings usually end up there or on Twitter where I can banter in 140 characters or less.

Acknowledgements & Friends

No doubt there are others who share my passion for the weather. Locally I speak often with a handful of users and want to share their websites with you.

765 Weather - Over in Lafayette, they are blessed with Tim and his vast knowledge of weather history. About any kind of weather phenomenon, Tim can crunch the numbers and tell you the extremes or averages for dates, years, seasons, or storms. I encourage you to check out his blog from time to time.

Indiana Tornadoes - The title should give away the focus of Ryan's blog. He keeps track of tornado events in Indiana plus other weather facts.

(Thank goodness for Tim and Ryan and their memory for weather. I am blessed with their knowledge often.)

Maurice Shammel - is a trained meteorologist in Evansville and shared his deep knowledge of the weather with the Tri-State area and Indiana. Not enough can be said about his invaluable expertise.

IndyWX - Bill also is a regular forecaster for this area of Indiana. Always enjoy reading his take on the weather and evolving patterns.

About Me

For those who don't know, I work full time in K-12 education in Information Technology, am active in Howard County EMA in communications, am a licensed amateur radio operator beginning in 1975, and work part time professionally in photography. If I'm not on the sideline of a sporting event, I'm usually somewhere at a marching band or winter guard event.

I also enjoy the weather even though I have no formal training, I can do a good job with short term forecasting and focus on Kokomo and Howard County. You may have already guess but I am not a fan of boring weather. While some find it odd, at 50 years old, I still love snow and lots of it too. I also maintain a weather station at my home and that is where the updates on the main webpage some originate from.

Most importantly, thanks for being a visitor to Kokomo-Weather.

2011-12-29T15:25:00.001-05:00

A rather quiet month for winter. Also quite warm. The good news is the patter looks to be changing for the better (if you are a winter lover).

Quick Observation

2011-11-30T01:43:00.001-05:00

The HRRR Model was pretty consistent all day with its hourly forecasts. You can see the how the heaviest snow forecast and the current IDHS (Indiana Department of Homeland Security) restricted travel map lines up rather nicely.

I updated it to add the snowcover and cooperative snowfall map. Again, the HRRR rocked this one.

Here is the NWS story on this system.

Updated Forecast: 4-8"

2011-11-29T12:07:00.001-05:00

All things point to Howard County getting right into the heaviest snow path. It isn't very wide so it was difficult to forecast but everything is lining up very nicely. At this point, I think 4-8" us likely across the county. Enjoy!

Join us on Facebook or Twitter too!

Rain & Snow

2011-11-28T22:38:00.001-05:00

Am impressive amount of rain will continue to fall through Tuesday afternoon when it changes to snow. The NAM model continues to impress with 8+ inches of snow. I so think it is high and this banding for the best snow will be rather narrow and the cut off quite sharp. Small shifts or thermal differences will have huge implications.

At this point I am forecasting 1-3" of snow and will continue to monitor the progress tomorrow as the event unfolds. Mini updates on Facebook and Twitter.

Possible Snow Event...

2011-11-25T19:58:00.001-05:00

November may end with a small rain changing over to snow event. The bulk of the precipitation passes as rain as the cold air hurries to catch up. However it does produce a small amount of snow. We are about 3 1/2 days away from the main event so the fine details remain uncertain. It will be the fine details which will mean the difference between a dusting to several inches. A delay for school on Tuesday is somewhat probable at this point...

Here the the two most recent runs of the GFS (12z (7 am) and 18z (1 PM)). You can see the snow band is rather narrow and it is moving around between model runs. That can make or break on what we score.

I won't be around on Saturday until the evening. I'll update the forecast then but don't be surprised if you start to see other forecasters start to mention it more seriously tomorrow.

2011-2012 Snowfall Totals

2011-11-12T16:59:00.001-05:00

Snow Total: 16" & 1 Trace | Snow Days: 0
Winter Forecast: 35" | Snow Days Predicted: 4

11/10/11 - T
11/29/11 - 5" (School Delay)
12/8/11 - 0.5" (Overnight/Moisture Starved Clipper)
12/27/11 - 2" (Heavy/Wet Snow)
1/2/12 - 0.5" (LES)
1/12-13/12 - 2" (School Delay)
1/13-14/12 - 0.5" (Flurries)
1/19/12 - 3" (Daytime Clipper)
1/20/12 - 2.5" (Messy)

The 2011 - 2012 Winter Outlook

2011-11-02T22:01:00.001-04:00

Before we talk about this winter, let’s take a brief lookback at last winter. The revisit is notpleasant for me. There was a blownforecast, some heartbreak misses, and a physical injury to top it all off.

I thought last winter would be mild and feature no significantsnow storms for Kokomo. Fortemperatures, I had forecast a cold start to winter with a warming overall withus finishing up with slightly above average for winter. While we did start quite cold in December,January remained below average. Februarydid climb above normal but the damage was already done. We finished with more than 2 degrees below normal.

I completely fail with the snowfall. A top ten winter was never even in my wildestdreams but I happened. I measured 34.3” with 6 trace amounts. While Kokomo is not an official reporting locationfor climate data, we average about 24” or so. Indianapolis recorded their 7^th snowiest winter onrecord. My prediction was slightly below average with22 to 24”.

Where I totally failed was with my snow day forecast for thecounty school. After several successful yearsof predictions, I am not even sure I deserve credit for trying. I said there would be no snow days butinstead there were five missed days. Howeverthere were just two instances to get these five days.

The first instance was January 11-12. The first day was not true snow day sinceschool started on time but they did dismiss very early. It was all planned and while I could have notcounted it, in other years I would have so I took the hit this time. It was just 4.5” overall but it was enough toget the job done.

What could have been historic for Kokomo ended up being big disappointmentafter it was over. Forecast models wereshowing 2+ feet of snow. (Yeah,feet!) While we knew that was overdone,I did go with 10” plus a couple of inches of sleet. The forecasts for south of here were for an apocalypticice storm. Many heeded the forecast andbought generators. (I bought one.) This event unfolded with two waves. The first wave was significantly weaker thanexpected and the second wave turned out to be a sleet storm. An inch of snow and three inches sleet waswhat I decided to recorded for the event. The mess did result in more three snow days for the season. It also resulted in my wife falling on the sleet and breaking her arm. That made for an unpleasant six weeks.

The one bright spot was the very unexpected snow on SaturdayFebruary 5^th. Six inches felland was the biggest snow of the season. There were 18 measurable snow events staring on December 1^stand ending on February 25^th. Just a couple of trace amounts were measured after that date.

I do look back on last winter with some frustration. Many places got pounded with snow and we justmissed more than a few times.

So how does the winter of 2011 – 2012 look?

One word: Awesome!

For the record, I am not a trained meteorologist or skilledin long range forecasting. I amgenerally a short range forecaster but love winter. For months, I read and analyze many other forecastsand weigh each one taking into their past verification records in addition totheir skill set in meteorology. Add in afew sprinkles of my own here and there and we have my winter outlook. With that said, here we go…

The consensus seems to be cold and snowy for the Ohio Valleyand lower Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will be more volatile this winter compared tolast with deep intrusions of cold pushing down from Canada but then relaxingwith surges of warmth from the south. Manyforecasters have thought winter would start off significantly with December beingmuch below normal. The models have beenhinting at a big flip to winter in the last half of November so that call lookslike a good one.

January is where we will begin to experience the up and downswings in temperatures. The swings intemperatures will produce a variety of weather. Unlike last winter were we avoided severe weather, the likelihood for severeweather seems elevated for this winter.

February will see more moderation in temperatures but stillsome cold shots.

A volatile season will also likely extend winter intoMarch. The past two winters didn’tfeature any measurable snow past the last week of February but I expect some snowin March this year.

So how much snow will we see this winter?

A couple of very favorable snow tracks will be in play thisseason. Alberta Clippers will beresponsible for frequent smaller snows of 2 to 4”. Occasionally a clipper can be an overperformer and surprise us with 5 to 6 plus inches. Clippers make light and fluffy snow. It is easy to shovel.

The best snows for Kokomo come from low pressure systemswhich originate on the east side of Colorado. These usually produce the heavy wet snow and have the accompanying windsto cause considerable drifting. Expectseveral of these tracks to be featured this winter.

December’s cold will help with several smaller snowevents. Normal snowfall of 7 to 8” seemsabout right.

January snow will see increased chances for snow with thelast half of the month the most likely time frame for a significant snowstorm. Above average snow will 12 to 15” ofaccumulating snow. That of course can goup rapidly with a big system.

February will see just a handful of snows but the first weekwill again be the best time for a bigger storm. Snow will measure 8 to 10” forthe month.

March should see a good snowstorm this year with 4 to 6” ofaccumulation.

By winters end, we could see nearly 40” of snow but willlikely be close to 35”. The previous twowinters were 32” and 34” and this once should fall right in line. One thing I do not see is an elevated threatfor ice.

Snow Days

The frequent clipper snows will produce many two hour delays. However the heavier wet snows will closeschools this winter. For the HowardCounty Schools, I predict 4 weather related closings this winter.

That is the forecast for the Howard County winter and thisis a high confidence forecast. Enjoy.

Century Mark

2011-07-21T21:41:00.000-04:00

The heat wave is miserable and today it seems we have recorded our first triple digit temperature in more than 10 years.

Severe Weather & Heat

2011-07-10T20:45:00.001-04:00

It's been a while since we chatted about the weather. Other than the storms which rolled through Saturday of July 2nd weekend, it has been pretty boring weather. It has been hot and for some parts of the country, it has been record setting. Locally though it has been just +2 to +4 degrees above normal since June 1.

More heat is on the way for Monday & Tuesday. While the actual temperature will just be in the low 90s, heat indexes will be in the 100s approaching 110. Take it easy if outdoors. Below are the Monday and Tuesday heat indexes. Quite a large area is oppressive heat.

Heat isn't the only thing happening this week. Monday & Tuesday will feature scattered thunderstorms. Some will reach severe limits as there is ample instability available. CAPE values, a measure of instability, are quite high for both days. I will be watching anything that forms tomorrow. The SPC has already placed us in a slight risk for both days.

Please Attend Amateur Radio Field Day

2011-06-24T15:27:00.000-04:00

Kokomo area “hams” will join with thousands of Amateur Radio operators who will be showing off their emergency capabilities this weekend. Over the past year, the news has been full of reports of ham radio operators providing critical communications during unexpected emergencies in towns across America including the California wildfires, winter storms, tornadoes and other events worldwide. During Hurricane Katrina, Amateur Radio – often called “Ham Radio” - was often the ONLY way people could communicate, and hundreds of volunteer “hams” traveled south to save lives and property.

When trouble is brewing, Amateur Radio’s people are often the first to provide rescuers with critical information and communications. On the weekend of June 25-26, the public will have a chance to meet and talk with Kokomo area ham radio operators and see for themselves what the Amateur Radio Service is about. Showing the newest digital and satellite capabilities, voice communications and even historical Morse code, hams from across the USA will be holding public demonstrations of emergency communications abilities.

This annual event, called "Field Day" is the climax of the week long "Amateur Radio Week" sponsored by the ARRL, the national association for Amateur Radio. Using only emergency power supplies, ham operators will construct emergency stations in parks, shopping malls, schools and backyards around the country. Their slogan, "When All Else Fails, Ham Radio Works” is more than just words to the hams as they prove they can send messages in many forms without the use of phone systems, internet or any other infrastructure that can be compromised in a crisis.

The Howard County Kokomo Amateur Radio Club Field Day will be held at Northwestern High School in the area of the football stadium. On-air operations will begin on Saturday, June 25th at 1:00 p.m. and will be ongoing around the clock until approximately noon on Sunday June 26th. Everyone is invited to observe operations or even try their hand at the microphone as we contact other "hams" across the United States and Canada. For more information, contact Ron Julius at 765-628-3520.

Here are some photos from 2010 when we operated from EMA on Berkley Road.

Tuesday Noon Update

2011-06-21T12:38:00.002-04:00

Severe weather is likely this afternoon with damaging winds and hail being the largest threat. A small tornado threat exists but is not the main concern for our area.

The advancing upper level low and slightly negative trough will influence the weather for our area today and tomorrow. Storms should begin forming sometime later this afternoon and continue through the evening.

Clearing is allowing the atmosphere to become charged and unlike yesterday where there was a strong cap to inhibit convection, today's cap is much weaker and should be broken easily. CAPE valuse, a sign of instability, are already extremely high for the area. The significant severe index is also high and you can see some storm activity in Illinois already.

Also the KIND radar is Indianapolis remains offline after a direct lightning hit yesterday. No word on its return to service.

Severe Weather for Tuesday

2011-06-21T07:02:00.000-04:00

Late last week, if anyone had told me that the City-County Major League Championship would be on schedule after three days of action, I would have laughed and said no way. Even yesterday morning when the rains were moving across the county I was thinking postponements were eminent.

Instead mother nature didn't produce over the weekend and yesterday, games were moved to diamonds that were not submerged and play continued on Monday evening. Still I think that today we will see some postponements for thunderstorms action later this afternoon.

An upper level low will slowly makes it way across the upper great lakes today and tomorrow and will drag with it chances for severe weather and of course, more rain. Storms will pinwheel around the low pressure system bringing multiple rounds of convection.

I don't think either the RUC or HRRR models have a good handle on the afternoon and evening convection. Like the previous three days, it will be a lot of nowcasting but unlike yesterday, the CAP will be minimal to things should get going today.

Quick updates on Facebook and twitter...

Severe Weather Monday Afternoon & Evening?

2011-06-20T13:00:00.000-04:00

Usually this much heavy rain early in the day settles down the atmosphere so later day convection doesn't happen. However the RUC shows a different story as does the SERF for later today.

Chad at Channel 18 is also on board the severe weather idea for later today. He has a nice write up on his blog about it.

Rain? Yes! Severe? Probably Not...

2011-06-18T13:41:00.000-04:00

Things have changed with this morning model runs. The severe weather threat had drastically diminished for today and most importantly tomorrow. The tornado threat is gone. The most recent Day 2 shows the change in thinking from the SPC.

Severe Weather & Rain

2011-06-18T09:56:00.001-04:00

There will be plenty of rain over the course of the next 5 to 7 days. Amounts ranging from nearly a couple of inches on the low side to 4+ inches in isolated areas.

We are in or very near the slight risk areas outlined by the SPC for severe weather through Tuesday. It could extend past that too.

For Saturday, the risk is wind and hail and the threat remains rather scattered. A very low (2%) risk for tornadoes on Saturday. The current incoming mess is slow and should give us several hours to get in some activities outside. Simulated short range models do show storms moving back in later afternoon.

Sunday has an increased threat for severe weather with tornadoes being possible. The SERF has been highlighting an area in Indiana and Western Ohio as the location for tornadic activity. The timing has been mid afternoon and evening.

Again, the treat is not as ominous as many of the recent events. Still however one should be prepared to take action should severe weather threaten.

The 90 degree temperatures have been pulled from the NWS forecast for the early week. By weeks end, we will be back to cooler weather with highs in the 70's again. Severe weather should continue through mid week and there could be a much great threat for tornadoes on Wednesday if the GFS and its forecast is correct.

I do think it will be a challenging week for the 55th Annual David A. Kasey Memorial Tournament. Major league play will likely see a few rain outs or delays. I say the odds of the tournament being extended an extra day to Friday seems high given the forecast. It wouldn't be the first time in recent years.

Record Summer Warmth?

2011-06-06T12:21:00.001-04:00

The months of June, July, & August make up meteorological summer. Channel 18 Meteorologist Chad Evans has made a forecast for a hot summer. So hot in fact it would break 1933 record where we averaged 79.3 degrees with a new average of 80.1 degrees. A rather bold prediction.

Tim, a fellow weather enthusiast in Lafayette had decided to keep detailed track of the heat just to see how this all pans out. (He is a wizard with old weather data.)

I think this will be interesting to follow and I will update you occasionally. Feel free to directly source the progress here.

What an evening...

2011-06-04T23:20:00.000-04:00

A lot of wind damage across the county. I was how and saw hail several times while spotting. A measured wind gust of 73 MPH at 5:20 on the north side of Kokomo. There was a 62 MPH gust at the airport before the station went offline.

A lot of rain has also fallen. I have seen 2.5 to 3.5 inch reports this evening.

We also broke a record with a high of 95 today. Sunday should be better and severe weather should be south of Kokomo.

HRRR Model

2011-06-04T13:15:00.003-04:00

Show initiation just before 3 PM and then building. A slight lull before a second wave hits at 8 PM.

Saturday Wind Threat

2011-06-04T10:05:00.000-04:00

Severe weather will break out across the northern half of Indiana today where there is a threat of high damaging winds. Conditions for development are mid to late afternoon into the evening.

Saturday Severe Weather...

2011-06-03T06:18:00.001-04:00

We might have some action to discuss...

Death Ridge = Hot & Dry

2011-05-30T13:29:00.001-04:00

A ridge will set up over the over our area bring hot temperatures and dry weather. The unstable weather has pushed north into the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Canada. However when the ridge breaks down, expect severe weather to return. That doesn't look to happen anytime for the next 7 days so enjoy it.

While we didn't see any truly severe weather on Wednesday, we did a several rounds of weather including a very photogenic cell. Craig Trott captured this amazing photo over Kokomo.

PDS Tornado Watch Until 2 AM

2011-05-25T18:45:00.000-04:00

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

          LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA

   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON
   INDIANA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MUNCIE INDIANA. FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 368. WATCH NUMBER 368 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   635 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 370...WW 371...WW 372...WW 373...WW
   374...

   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
   THE WATCH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
   COUPLED WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. E/W BOUNDARY
   ACROSS CENTRAL IND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE.
   TORNADOS POSSIBLY STRONG TO VIOLENT WILL BE A THREAT WELL INTO THE
   EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

[UPDATED WED 10:15 AM] Wednesday: Possible Tornado Outbreak In Indiana

2011-05-24T21:23:00.004-04:00

Update 10:15 AM: Tornado Watch until 7 PM this evening.

Update 9 AM: As forecast below, we were upgraded locally to a moderate risk and a high risk was issued south. (I almost drew a map last evening for the moderate and high risk areas. If I did, it would have been almost dead on with the SPC map this morning.)

The SERF continues to paint a scary picture for tornadic activity today.

Already some convection with warnings to our west but this wave is not the real show. It starts this afternoon. The NWS in Indianapolis has issued a Special Weather Statement which would be good for you to review.

Previous:

Portions of Indiana is likely to see a significant severe weather event on Wednesday including tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be long tracked and violent.

The SERF model from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed a bullseye over our region including Kokomo. Unlike in winter when we love to be the center of the bullseye, this is one time when you want to be missed. These maps are 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.

The SERF model has had a good history of outlining the area of tornadoes in the past couple of months. the higher number of 40 or 50 which are depicted here are strong indicators of a large scale event. It happened in in the south at the end of April, it happened on Sunday for Joplin, and it happened tonight for Oklahoma.

While I am hopeful we won't see anything of that magnitude, I cannot rule that out. It is extremely important that you follow local media tomorrow along with checking in here and on my social media stream on Twitter and Facebook.

(Please note that during active times, I am usually out Skywarn spotting and reporting back via Amateur radio to the National Weather Service. I usually cannot answer questions but will try to tweet information as often as I can.)

Twitter followers should also consider watching the #INwx hashtag for info from many weather enthusiasts, individuals, and trained meteorologists.

These maps show that tomorrow during the dinner hour, Cape values exceed 1500+, EHI is 4+, Helicity is 300+, and strong winds turning at carious levels of the atmosphere. All signs of severe weather and tornadic activity.

I cannot stress enough that you need to be alert of ever changing conditions. You need to be responsible for your own safety and have a plan in place for home, work, and anywhere else you happen to be. There is an excellent chance things will be rocking before you get home from work. I would suggest one or more of the free alerting services for your cell phone or email:

CellWarn
WeatherUSA
The Weather Channel
Emergency Email & Wireless Network
WISH-TV Channel 8

While not free, I personally use StormNow and at a cost of $2 per month, it is the best money spent. I almost always receive a warning email before the weather radio goes off.

Besides severe weather, heavy rain is possible through Thursday. Area where cells set up could bring several inches of rain rather quickly and cause flash flooding.

My thoughts for tomorrow believe that we will be on the top edge of a moderate risk and a high risk will be issued to our south. Keep alert and there should be plenty to talk about tomorrow...

Possible Tornado Outbreak for Wednesday in Indiana

2011-05-24T13:34:00.001-04:00

The headline should serve as your heads up. Wednesday afternoon and evening seem favorable for a an outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes. This severe weather season has been rather active and violent and it shows no signs of letting up.

There already is a moderate risk out and we are very near the currently outlined area. I do think a shift north and east is warranted and will likely come on the new Day 1 Outlook maps. I put my own line on the map.

The SERF shows favorable tornado ingredients as well for tomorrow. These high numbers (30+) have been associated with recent violent outbreaks so this model currently has a good track record for forecasting. These maps are for 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.

I cannot stress enough how you need a plan to protect yourself and your family. Warning times have been good with 15 to 20 minute lead times but that is not enough time if you do not get the warning or fail to have a plan. You need to allow extra time trying to exit ball parks. This year has seen 481 tornado related deaths. Mother Nature means business!

Wednesday's Severe Weather

2011-05-23T23:00:00.001-04:00

The SERF paints a rather scary picture for severe weather and specifically, tornadoes. More to come as things develop.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

2011-05-23T14:02:00.000-04:00

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:00 PM FOR KOKOMO ***

Quick updates from me on Twitter - http://twitter.com/#!/KokomoWeather

and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather

2011-05-23T08:50:00.001-04:00

The weather complex which produced devastation is Joplin, Mo is set to be active over our area today. Please be prepared.

Severe Weather Watching Coming Soon...

2011-05-22T15:05:00.000-04:00

The question is will it be a severe or tornado watch...

Looks like a busy day in Tornado Alley...

2011-05-11T16:04:00.000-04:00

Tornado Watch until 3 AM for Kokomo/Howard County

2011-04-27T19:44:00.000-04:00

An amazing outbreak of tornadoes.

Welcome to a Wet Wednesday

2011-04-27T06:51:00.000-04:00

Yesterday was pretty much as bust for our area. The conditions were ripe for severe weather but then something finally materialized late, convective conditions were waning and as fast as something popped, it faded away.

The south has been pretty active and today looks no different for them. At least things are moving east and will hopefully exit the region by tomorrow.

Our day will feature another round of rain later with limited chances of severe weather. Probably a lengthy window of clearing (sun) might change that but at this time is not expected. Some embedded storms but no outbreak of sorts. Very low tornado threat for Kokomo.

The good news is we are going to have back to back great weather days on Friday and Saturday. While some storm chance move in Saturday night, the day will be sunny and in the 70's. Get out and enjoy.

Severe Weather & More Rain

2011-04-26T07:54:00.001-04:00

More rain is forecast. Still another 1-2 inches before we get to a dry day on Thursday. Today's rain will be limited with mostly pop up thunderstorms. These will be numerous but scattered along left over boundaries from the overnight storms.

Today will be a lot of watching for a combination of sun/heating and instability to see if we can get anything started.

Monday Update...

2011-04-25T14:55:00.002-04:00

We should dodge the severe weather today but will still see the heavy rain in excess if an inch tonight. Pretty quiet otherwise.

Rain | Severe Weather

2011-04-24T18:41:00.000-04:00

Rain will overtake the region tonight and bring significant rainfall amounts. One to three inches by Tuesday evening will bring a flash flood threat for Kokomo. I mowed yesterday and the ground was saturated before the Saturday night rains. Rain will continue to through mid week and more rain is forecast for the next two weeks.

Severe weather is also on tap through Wednesday. The only good news is we are not in the bullseye but are under a significant threat each day. Be prepared each day for severe weather. I will be nowcasting each day with updated forecasts and the day unfolds.

Take a moment and look back at last week where we had 26 tornadoes. Quite amazing when you think about. Check out Ryan's blog where he outlines all 26 of them.

http://indianadoes.blogspot.com/2011/04/26-tornadoes-confirmed-in-tuesday.html

We will be seeing a lot more of each other this week. I look forward to keeping you informed.

Taking a break...

2011-04-23T10:39:00.000-04:00

It has been a busy week and we got rather luck on Friday to just see rain and not any of the severe weather. Some significant damage in the St. Louis metro area and at Lambert Field. Amazing watching the reports last evening as they trickled out.

We will again see more chances for severe weather starting as early as tomorrow and continuing on through the middle of the week. Rain will continue and I can see another 3 to 5 inches in the next couple of weeks for our area. I also am not seeing any real spring warm up. A few warmer days (like today) sprinkled in through the same two week period but no sustained signs of spring.

I am going to take the day off from forecasting and weather and will be back tomorrow. Enjoy the weather if you can and take care.

Which Bad News Do You Want?

2011-04-21T16:24:00.028-04:00

I have a lot of bad news with the forecast.

We already have too much rain and we are going to get more. Another 2 to 4 inches is likely over the next week. Probably more but it is difficult to pinpoint the localized amounts.

The next bad news involves severe weather for Friday. While we might not get the brunt of the severe weather, we will again see a warm front lifting north across Indiana followed by a cold front pushing east overnight. A similar scenario could play out to the recent Tuesday event. Indiana now has 14 or 15 confirmed tornadoes with the system which swept across almost the entire state. Winds again will have fast storm motion and you should get to safety when warnings are issued. If you wait, it might be too late.

But wait, there's more...

There are chances for rain and thunderstorms through the end of next week. The early to middle part of the week could be very rough. No exact details or locations yet but everything in our region is in play for severe weather.

Youth baseball is also starting up. I will put together a few tips this weekend for both venue managers, players & coaches, and fans/parents to better prepare yourselves for the upcoming season. I suspect it will be rocky all season long.

Seven Confirmed Tornadoes

2011-04-20T19:05:00.000-04:00

There were six confirmed tornadoes nearby and one by the Ohio River. Two were in Cass and two in Grant Counties plus one in Boone and Tippecanoe Counties.

Here are a few rather poor lightning photos I took with my cell phone last evening.

We got lucky...

2011-04-20T06:21:00.000-04:00

Sounds crazy but we really did get lucky yesterday. The first round of severe weather never materialized as the warm front made slow progression northward. While we were primed to go, the fuse never got lit. There was evidence on how juiced the atmosphere was as the squall line rolled through.

If you were watching radar, the bow echo was back in Tippecanoe and Montgomery Counties but a cell ahead of the line in Clinton County went from nothing to huge in just a few minutes. It cut across Howard County going through Galveston and into Miami County.

I wonder if the 20 damaged cars at the Miami County Correctional Facility were the result of that isolated cell. It produced some very dramatic cloud to ground lightning which I witnessed.

We did miss out on some tornadoes unlike Illinois and even Ohio. I think the SREF which had shown strong indication for tornadoes was generally spot on.

Take a couple of days to clean up and rest. The atmosphere is reloading and the SPC already has us in a slight risk and the SREF is already highlighting another tornado threat for our area.

And this isn't the end to the severe weather threats. There is a large threat looming for early next week. Too early for specifics but Tuesday has temperatures near 80, dewpoints in the 60's and another surface low tracking to our west just like so many other times we have had severe outbreaks.

Bow Echo Heading This Way

2011-04-19T20:51:00.000-04:00

Widespread wind damage with storm system. Some tornadoes and hail has also been reported. Watch the radar live. Have your weather radio on! Be ready!

Tornado Watch until 3 AM

2011-04-19T19:50:00.001-04:00

Be alert. Storms will be crossing the state line about 9-10 PM...

That was nothing...

2011-04-19T13:08:00.000-04:00

The few boomers we had around lunch are nothing compared to later. The clearing to our west will grow and move over central Illinois & Indiana. Add in an advancing warm front and you will have trouble...

Round 1: Warm Front

2011-04-19T09:40:00.000-04:00

The warm front should move north and be the afternoon/early evening trigger for storms. Currently you can see the tight temperature gradient with 70 in Evansville and 41 in Kokomo.

Good Morning...

2011-04-19T06:54:00.000-04:00

Today is already starting off wet and in some places, rocking. Thunderstorms are in progress in MO & IL and overnight there were a couple of tornado warnings in southwestern Indiana. Things should be quiet through lunch.

Overall the forecast has not changed so look for more activity later this afternoon....

Tuesday is the Real Deal

2011-04-18T20:55:00.000-04:00

There is a lot of talk about Tuesday and severe weather across the region. One thing absent from the conversation is the work bust. I have not heard anyone talk about a bust. While that is no guarantee of severe weather, it does give all forecasters more confidence.

So how will this play out?

First, this system and the system to follow at the end of the week will deliver a good soaking. Rain totals from 2 to 4 inches seems with isolated higher amounts seem quite reasonable. The ground is already saturated and new rain will case minor flooding and standing water. Farmers will not be having an early planting season.

Severe weather will be in two main phases on Tuesday. A warm front will move north across the state. This should provide the trigger for the first round of initiation for severe weather. The question is how strong is the cap. While better tornado parameters are south/southwest of here, they have a stronger cap. We have less inhibition so we might be more favorable.

The first severe will likely feature more isolated supercells with strong potential to produce tornadoes. These should pop first to our west in Illinois so there will be some warning. Anytime after 3 or 4 PM should be watched carefully.

The second round will a west to east squall line with embedded supercells. While straight line winds will cause widespread concern, nocturnal tornadoes after midnight will be a significant concern.

Both waves will feature large damaging hail, lightning and as highlighted before, rain.

The threat is very real and hopefully there was a bit of a wake up call this past weekend with 240 tornadoes across the south with 44 deaths. Mother nature has several rounds of serious business for us the next two weeks.

I cannot stress enough the importance of a weather radio. Supplement that with with text alerts to your cell phone using a service such as Cell Warn or Weather USA which are free or my personal favorite of Storm Now which is $2 per month.

I will do updates tomorrow as needed and plan to have a careful watch on the system and evolution. As always, my forecast will be mainly for Kokomo and Howard County.

Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Looms

2011-04-18T08:03:00.001-04:00

Tuesday both daytime and evening should have a severe weather threat over all of Indiana. The evening and overnight threat looks especially serious. Tornadoes are very likely! Updates later...

Strong Indication for Severe Weather on Tuesday Evening and Overnight

2011-04-17T17:16:00.000-04:00

Everything necessary to product a significant outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes is coming together for a Tuesday into Wednesday event. The show will start back in Missouri and if the current timing is correct, be a threat for our area in the evening into the overnight.

The SPC is already highlighting this area and I could very well see a moderate day two risk issued for our area and to our southwest.

I shouldn't have to tell you to importance of having a NOAA weather radio and a plan for your safety. Even with long lead times and advanced radar and a network of spotters/chasers, around 40 people have been confirmed dead in the most recent Thursday-Saturday outbreak.

This year mother nature means business.

Additional forecasts leading up to the event will follow.

Busy Week | Past / Ahead

2011-04-16T21:42:00.001-04:00

It has been a busy week for me and I have not posted much even on Facebook or Twitter. That isn't to say I have not been following the weather. A significant outbreak started Thursday in the plain states and moved to the east coast producing more than 200 tornadoes and sadly 20 deaths. This outbreak rivals many of the big ones we all know.

The active pattern should continue and I would suspect our ticket will get punched for the big show in the near future. Possible as early as Tuesday.

The significant tornado ingredients from the SREF model already has placed bullseye over the region including Indiana. I will be following this system and forecasting frequently.

Rumbles Tonight...

2011-04-10T08:38:00.000-04:00

Straight line wind and hail with a few embedded tornadoes will be the overnight threat. While conditions will be favorable for tornadoes this afternoon and early evening, there will not be any trigger mechanism unlike first thought. All the action will be midnight or later with the main line moving through just ahead of sunrise.

You can see the RUC has the line back in Illinois at 9 PM and the WRF has it just passed at 8 AM.

The SPC has kept a moderate risk for Wisconsin for today. Possible upgrade later but there does seem to be a lot of bust potential with this system.

Usually big days have to so many things just right that anything slightly not in place can make a forecast bust.

Severe Weather Threat...

2011-04-09T20:35:00.000-04:00

The severe weather threat for Kokomo will again be nocturnal. While Sunday will be very warm, the ingredients to produce severe weather will likely not come together until well after midnight. By then the tornado threat will be lower as a squall line moves across the state ahead of the cold front. Best timing would be 3 to 5 AM.

It is important to make sure your weather radio is working at all times but especially for the overnight events. I highlighted this a few days ago on the Facebook page for Kokomo-Weather but want to let you know the NWS transmitter which serves Howard County has been problematic recently. It normally transmits with 1000 watts of power. However various issues has cause it to fail over to a low power option with the 100 watts. Weather radios not receiving a good signal will not trigger from the alert tones. I urge you to check the location of your weather radio and position it for the best reception possible.

Here are a couple of maps showing the Monday squall line.

Please note the big outbreak potential mentioned earlier in the week is now more focused to the eastern edge of Iowa, north of I-80 in Illinois and the southern half of Wisconsin. Those areas could see a significant outbreak tomorrow and a High Risk area from the SPC will likely be issued for Sunday. Chicago looks to also be in line for a severe threat from the system.

Monday looks interesting.

2011-04-08T12:55:00.001-04:00

Monday could also play out with some severe weather. Keeping watch.

Another Severe Sunday Night...

2011-04-08T07:38:00.001-04:00

Unlike last week, the severe weather should arrive much sooner even with things slowing down. With the slower progression, we'll miss the better daytime heating but dynamics and instability will make up for it.

I'm out of town today but will be back on Saturday with the details.

Severe Weather...

2011-04-07T06:30:00.000-04:00

The weekend continues to look potent for severe weather. Possibly will see our first high risk of 2011.

Weekend Looking Severe....

2011-04-06T22:57:00.000-04:00

Keeping watch for big potential..

Local NWS Support for Severe Weather...

2011-04-05T21:39:00.003-04:00

The office in Indianapolis had this to say...

THE MAIN SHOW THOUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 100 PLUS KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EVENING. UNLIKE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING...THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS DYNAMICS.

The northern Indiana office has this in the discussion...

VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUPPORTED A RATHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION.

And from the Chicago NWS...

There is still a lot of time to figure this out but expect some sort of strong or severe weather this weekend.

Record Setting Day | More Severe Coming

2011-04-05T11:10:00.001-04:00

Yesterday was a record setting day for severe weather. Not in the number of tornadoes which jut numbered 20 but in the number of severe reports. To be exact, there were 1080 of them. Mainly damaging winds associated with a squall line. More than 1400 reports for the two days. Rather amazing. Just imagine had there be a little bit of spin to the atmosphere. Likely would have been another super outbreak.

As mentioned yesterday, the SPC is not highlighting the upcoming weekend activity. It looks to be another possible outbreak.

Early Morning Wake Up Call | More Severe Next Weekend

2011-04-04T22:38:00.000-04:00

I am not a fan of 5 AM thunderstorm warnings. It is just too early. This morning saw the remnant convection from the system in Iowa, Missouri, & Illinois move through. No tornadoes were reported with the system. Today has seen more than a dozen and the action continues. It is a big system.

Next weekend has some severe potential and I suspect the SPC will start to highlight the potential as early as tomorrow with the Day 4-8 Outlook.

Wednesday will be the best day in the next seven so get out and enjoy it.

Nocturnal Threat

2011-04-03T13:12:00.000-04:00

Timing of the severe weather moving east should produce a nocturnal threat for our area. Arriving after the dinner hour today and lasting through tomorrow mid day. The speed of the system should get things through here tomorrow without much time for daytime heating available to destabilize the atmosphere.

Illinois will be under the gun starting late afternoon through the night too.

Severe Weather Sunday & Monday

2011-04-02T16:17:00.000-04:00

Widespread severe weather is likely for Sunday and Monday. This event will sweep across Texas to Iowa and points eastward. Sunday evening will see a battle between moderate tornado parameters verses a cap. If the cap can be overcome, central MO to central/northern IL will could see numerous tornadoes late afternoon into the evening. This system will lose some punch as it moves east towards Indiana but will regain some strength Monday mid day to late afternoon.

The tornado parameters are not as high in Indiana but we could still see some isolated tornadoes along with a strong linear threat on Monday. Storms should be east by early evening as much colder air will take over.

Any slow down in the eastward progression which was advertised a couple of days ago could again produce a much stronger outbreak including Indiana and Ohio.

There will be a lot of nowcasting with this event. Stay tuned...

Severe Weather Monday

2011-03-31T21:59:00.000-04:00

Monday in the PM hours should be very active. I will be keeping you updated as we draw closer to this event.

Worst Possible Situation...

2011-03-30T17:28:00.000-04:00

The weather has been not very spring link. In fact I sometimes have to remind myself it is spring. Some more crummy wintry mix Friday into Saturday morning. While the weekend will be warmer, it won't sunny and inviting for outdoor activities.

You might be wondering what is the worst possible situation headline. That revolves around Monday and severe weather. A pretty good chance for widespread severe weather. No specifics but it coincide with the Monday night NCAA game. (Hopefully Butler will be in it!) I hope it settles down before game time.

I'm keeping watch and will update as warranted.

Saturday Night Heads Up...

2011-03-24T06:46:00.001-04:00

It is an important night Saturday with the Kokomo High School Wildkats playing for the 4A State Championship at Conseco Fieldhouse. I am rooting for them all the way and hope they bring the victory back to Kokomo.

Unfortunately even with a win, things might not be good for the drive home. The GFS, NAM, & Euro are all forecasting snow to hit during the game and the trip home. Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of the white stuff. The GFS with its northern solution would impact us the most. The NAM is Indy and south while the Euro is drier and south a bit more.

I urge everyone to be prepared for a slow and cautious trip back to Kokomo after the game.

We also need to touch on Monday into Tuesday potential. Lots of model differences but something wintry might be looming. :(

What's with the weather?

2011-03-22T21:28:00.000-04:00

It's been a while but I have been busy and the weather has not been all that exciting. It still isn't all that exciting but there are a few things coming up that we need to talk about.

There will be a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday. A widespread outbreak is not expected for the area but a few storms could bring strong winds and hail. It should be done evening when a cold front will deliver possible snow showers.

That won't be our only snow chances. Saturday and Monday could also see snow. Not sure I am on board with significant accumulations but I could see the Monday system providing a couple of inches. Still though I am taking a wait and see approach.

What I do see is more rain (or snow) making for moist soil. This will be another part of the active severe season.

Nothing Exciting This Week...

2011-03-06T19:47:00.000-05:00

Temps will be best Monday, Tuesday, & Friday but they not spectacular. Rain comes back and hopefully we can again dodge the main bullet. We got lucky this weekend when the heaviest ran took a path from Terre Haute to Indianapolis to Muncie. Some back end snow Wednesday into Thursday but not much more than another trace.

Very slim chance we could see some severe weather Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Very slim.

All Aboard

2011-03-02T21:42:00.000-05:00

The rain train is about to leave the station. Friday and Saturday will see another 1 to 2 inches of rain across a huge potion of the Ohio Valley and in fact, large portions east of the Mississippi River will be rained upon.

There does appear to be a bit of back end snow late Saturday evening and Sunday but accumulations will be less than an inch. Just enough to make for some slick spots. Overall nothing significant with this weather pattern other than rain for now. Oh well, maybe more to report in a few days...

Big Forecast Day Tomorrow...

2011-03-01T21:47:00.001-05:00

I won't detail much today but the weekend will start wet. How it ends is still a huge question mark. Anything from flooding to heavy snow seems possible. I will hope for some better model consensus tomorrow. If not that, maybe they can all at least begin to trend from their current solutions towards a consensus.

Also, the dog while has not been reunited with its owner, a new potential owner has been found. The dog is in great shape and had a beautiful personality. She will make someone very happy.

Found Dog

2011-02-28T19:50:00.000-05:00

FOUND DOG: Please help reunite me with my owner. I was found at 3075 N Washington St in Kokomo. I had been rolled by a car and was a bit shaken and have some road rash but am going to be fine. I have no ID tag or chip and am a female about 12 weeks old. I am very friendly. Please share this with your Kokomo friends.... (Also feel free to leave a comment in case I need a new home.)

You can call me at work during the day at 452-3060 and ask for Jim (and the dog) too to claim (or adopt if the owner is not found)...

Southern/Central Indiana: Tornado Watch

2011-02-28T00:59:00.000-05:00

Howard County is not included in the current tornado watch. Still, keep alert for severe weather and expect a lot of rain and flooding.

Watch Boxes West...

2011-02-27T23:06:00.000-05:00

An Overnight Severe Threat

2011-02-27T19:07:00.000-05:00

The threat for severe weather will be with us overnight but should exit the area by mid morning tomorrow. Heavy rains if 1 to 2 inches is likely. Given the saturated ground from the snow melt, some flooding and ponding of water is possible.

Right now the severe threat will be greatest from 11 PM to 6 AM.

Severe Weather Season Starts Early...

2011-02-26T23:35:00.001-05:00

Our severe weather season should kick off tomorrow. The main threat will be from 7 PM through Monday morning. Storms will transition from a more discrete solution into a linear solutions. Here are the 3 AM and 7 AM simulated radars for Monday morning.

The SPC has us under a slight risk already. I could see an area from Little Rock to Springfield Mo to Paduch, KY to Nashville upgraded to High Risk before this is all said and done.

I will be watching and updating this threat throughout Sunday. It would be a good time to check your weather radio and batteries. You don't want to be asleep if this hits and you need to take shelter.

No matter how the severe weather plays out, we are going to see quite a bit or rain.

Dry Air

2011-02-25T07:58:00.000-05:00

When I finally went to bed at 2:45 Am with just a trace of snow after several hours of nice radar returns, I know my updated forecast was in trouble. The dry air just kept eating away at the snow.

I kept seeing higher snow amounts on the short range yesterday and finally decided to up my forecast to 4-7". The higher end didn't verify at all. My original 3-5" call (and a snow day for area schools) was perfect. I honestly think I might have to count the forecast as a bust.

More fun ahead. I'll detail that in a later forecast...

Patience - It will be worth it...

2011-02-24T22:58:00.001-05:00

The heavy snow is still coming. It has taken a while to fully saturate the column but things should be starting up soon locally. The heaviest snow was not expected until after midnight. The best news is we should avoid any mixing issues here and remain all snow.

Forecast: 4-7" Snow

2011-02-24T14:07:00.002-05:00

Lots of Moisture...

2011-02-24T13:37:00.002-05:00

This system looks juicy and I think I need to update my forecast to 4 to 7 inches for this storm. (Our biggest storm system of the season was just 6 inches.)

3-5" Snowfall & No School Friday...

2011-02-24T07:55:00.005-05:00

My call remains the same!

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

2011-02-24T07:06:00.002-05:00

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAFAYETTE AND
KOKOMO AREAS.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
DRIFTS...BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY
BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
SNOW BECOMING HEAVY OVERNIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS: A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH EARLY FRIDAY WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Snow...

2011-02-23T22:35:00.002-05:00

The wet and snowy weather pattern will also produce a narrow band of freezing rain. It will be close but I am expecting us to see a minimum problems from freezing rain. We should stay mostly snow. I still like my 3-5 inch call.

The band of the best snow is pretty narrow so this will be a storm which will need to be closely watched.

GFS is a bit broader with its precipitation.

I have not mentioned it since are far enough north to be out of harms way but tomorrow will be a wicked day for severe weather. Keep those people in your prayers.

Winter Storm Watch

2011-02-23T16:04:00.002-05:00

...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a Winter
Storm Watch...which is in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning.

* Main impact: roads may become impassable due to heavy snow and
drifts...blowing snow may reduce visibility...travel may become
very hazardous.

* Accumulations: snowfall amounts of up to 6 inches are
possible...especially across far northern portions of central
Indiana.

* Timing: rain will change over to all snow during the evening
hours tomorrow night...with this changeover progressing
southward with time.

* Other impacts: a very brief period of freezing rain or sleet may
accompany the changeover to snow. Snow and blowing snow may
linger into the morning rush hour on Friday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Updated: 3-5" Snowfall & No School Friday...

2011-02-23T06:16:00.002-05:00

Update: The 12z GFS and NAM models are in and look great for my 3-5" call. The NAM was more bullish with upwards of 10-12" but I will keep my 3-5" call for now.

I am going to either be a hero or a zero with this one. The swath of snow will be narrow. The cold air needs to plunge in at the right moment to catch the end of the rain to make this happen.

GFS

NAM

More Snow & More Snow Days

2011-02-22T21:47:00.000-05:00

I admit I caught spring fever last week like everyone else. I even said I was done with snow and ready to move on. However it appears winter isn't ready to go so we are going to get drug back into this wintry mess.

Monday was a bit messy. We were in a precarious spot where we teetered between rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The thought was we would be mainly rain and instead things turned the other way. Conditions quickly deteriorated catching many off guard.

We are going to be riding that line again Thursday evening into Friday. However this time we should do a quick change from rain on Thursday to snow Thursday evening. All models are showing ample precipitation. The change over should be quick without much transitional precipitation.

Now don't think this is some magical moment where the models all agree and all meteorologists are singing songs around a campfire. There is still a substantial amount of disagreement. So at this point one needs to select which solution looks best.

The NAM and SREF both seem to produce a narrow but intense swath of snow across Howard County from Thursday evening to Friday morning. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches looks possible during this short window.

The call is pretty bold at this point but I will say area schools will cancel on Friday making for a long weekend. More updates as needed...

Overnight

2011-02-21T22:25:00.000-05:00

Another wave will move through overnight. Not much accumulation but slick roads will be a real possibility. Could be two hour delays for schools in the morning.

Freezing Rain

2011-02-21T13:54:00.001-05:00

It is really close. It will sag over the area probably before 4 PM and make for a very slick evening.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

2011-02-21T08:58:00.002-05:00

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT:ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY TO DUE TO FREEZING RAIN.ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES & OVERPASSES & ON SOME SECONDARY ROADS. BECAUSE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING SOME ROAD SURFACES WILL FREEZE. HOWEVER MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO CHANGING DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON TREES.POWER LINES.

* TIMING: THE WORST IMPACT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON & VERY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS.PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS: PERSONS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SLIPPERY SPOTS WHEN WALKING ON SIDE WALKS & IN PARKING LOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW.SLEET.OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Wintry Mix

2011-02-21T06:43:00.000-05:00

A wintry mix along for late afternoon through the overnight. Mostly rain with some back end snow. We will be right on the line and just a few miles will make a large difference. For example 2.4" is forecast for Bunker Hill while just 0.6" is forecast for Kokomo. No freezing rain here but 0.2" possible for Bunker Hill.

Basically this is a nowcast type of situation for tonight so be prepared for changing conditions and possible school delays tomorrow.

Active Weather Pattern...

2011-02-20T21:38:00.001-05:00

The large scale pattern continues to be active. Hopefully some of the activity will trickle down to some local activity. Up first is the second wave of the current system hammering areas from the Dakotas to the East Coast. Snow, sleet, & ice and a lot of it. Temperatures will fall Monday producing a borderline opportunity for snow Monday evening. Accumulations will likely be an inch or less. However a minor adjustment could produce two to three inches. Very, very slim chance but possible

Later this week is the next large system. We are looking at Thursday evening into Friday morning. The GFS and Euro agree on the large scale idea but differ on where the axis of snow will set up. The GFS pictured below has the low pressure following a perfect path for our area to receive the best snows. The Euro is a bit further north with the snow axis bringing 40-50 degree temps into Indiana. Could be nothing or could be 6-8 inches for us. At least it is something to track. :)

The warmer temps could translate to some potential for severe weather for us. However either the GFS or the Euro looks to produce a significant severe weather outbreak for areas south. It is defiantly worth keeping an eye on the situation.

March 1 might come in like a lion is the advertised system materializes.

Lots of moisture being advertised. If it can move up into the cold sector, then BOOM goes the snow!

Additional activity on the long range.

Oh Well...

2011-02-19T22:25:00.002-05:00

I think any real chance for accumulating snow is gone. Look for some rain and a little but of frozen white stuff Monday evening but accumulations will be light.

Quick Update

2011-02-18T21:38:00.000-05:00

Interesting to see how low key some of tonight's forecasts were about the Monday evening/overnight snow. Yes it is not a certainty but it seems like some snow is plausible. One stations didn't even mention it and have temps in the 40's and 50's.

The HPC gives us a 10% chance for 4" of snow. I think a couple of inches will likely be our lot. A better update tomorrow when hopefully we have some model consensus.

Models Are Clueless

2011-02-17T21:11:00.000-05:00

All kinds of solutions and the same model will even throw out drastically different solutions from one run to the next. Snow lovers experience a lot of emotions looking at models.

Even with all of the craziness, a handful of things seem to be exposing themselves.

There will be two storms back to back.
There will be a lot of moisture with both systems.
We will have rain for the first storm.

With that, I deliver the DGEX.

More tomorrow...

To Snow or Not To Snow...

2011-02-16T22:34:00.001-05:00

That is the question...

A few times you have heard me mention the various numerical computer models which produce weather maps. We have a huge battle ongoing right now with next weeks storm. The GFS which is many times suspect is north, way north and produces warm and rain for Sunday into Tuesday. It has plenty of moisture but isn't even close on producing snow.

On the other hand the ECMWF (Euro) which is typically the first to sniff out the correct storm track and has been many times crowned King has less moisture but is a solid snow event. Other models show everything from compromise/blended solutions to even more whacky solutions.

The JMA does seem to be pretty close match to the Euro.

What concerns me a little bit is some sleet and ice as a threat. Not like recent problems Indy south experienced but enough that I am paying close attention to that aspect.

More info as it become clear. Sooner or later one of the models will blink and we should have a better idea of a solution.

No specific amounts but nothing historic should it be snow. Just a good old fashioned snow maker.

Heh...

2011-02-15T21:11:00.003-05:00

That is about how excited I am about the weather right now. Heh. It will warm up and it will melt the dirty snow but it won't be sunny or enjoyable. What snow the warm up misses will get taken down by some drizzle and rain showers. The weekend will be colder but not enough for fresh snow so it really is a rather blah forecast.

Lots of action in the medium and long range but low confidence on any of it working out to anything that more blah. La Niña has finally showed up and she doesn't look pretty.

Maybe something will peak my interest in a few days. For now, heh.

The streak is broken...

2011-02-13T12:00:00.000-05:00

We finally broke 40 degrees since January 1. It has been a long time coming. While I initially thought we might just get over the 40 degree mark, it looks like we should be well above it today. Here is the 11 AM reading for the state.

Today also marks the 24th day in a row with snow on the ground. The NWS in Indianapolis has a little write up here. We are in the top 10. Looking at the list, there are some very memorable years in that list.

Also, on this day in 2007, the Valentines Day II snowstorm hit much of the US. Kokomo received 21 inches over three days (2/13-2/15) with 16.4 inches falling on Valentines Day. That was an amazing storm.

Look for a warm week to melt our snow pack but winter is going to return as early as next week. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Warm but Cold?

2011-02-12T20:13:00.000-05:00

It will be close to 40 or maybe even a touch above. However the temperature a couple of thousand feet up will be low to middle 50's. The deep snow pack will continue to temper surface temperatures but as the week goes on, the snow pack will melt and surface temperatures will warm nicely. Don't get used to it, cold and snow will be making a return.

In The Deep Freeze

2011-02-09T19:38:00.000-05:00

Thursday morning will be one of the coldest temperatures in years. The good news is we will be leaving the basement and heading to warmer temperatures as early as the weekend. I even have some hope that we will continue the climb into true spring like temperatures in 7 to 10 days. Yeah, I'm talking - wait for it - 60's! Just some long range temps and I would expect some snap back to winter before everything is done but a taste of spring would sure be nice after tomorrow morning.

Grading Winter

2011-02-07T19:44:00.002-05:00

Since there is a bit of a break from following our next snow system, I thought what better time to do a mid winter grade.

Winter locally has been rather busy. Kokomo has seen 15 measurable snow events with 7 of those recording 2 inches or more. Our current snow total is an even 30 inches. It seems like we have done well but Indy is at 33.4 inches and Lafayette has been the areas sweet spot recording 44.9 inches.

To reach our 30 inch total, we have been seem mostly smaller events. Only one topped 6 inches and two topped 4 inches.

We have an amazing 10 inches of snow depth but that total is tempered by the sleet storm which could have us at 2 feet of snow depth. That would have been historic. (Kids would still be out of school!) Illinois, Missouri, & Indiana are experiencing top 10 winter snow fall totals. Some are at number one. We are not there yet but might make it before winter ends.

(Unfortunately Kokomo (ICAO: KOKK) is not available with detailed climate information. There is some data available but it is not 100% and would take weeks to make it usable. Still someday I hope to tally the snowfall totals.)

This winter has also featured cold temperatures and there have even been some below zero readings. (We will see a couple of more subzero temps this week.) But there has not been any memorable cold.

The sleet storm was memorable but it would have been much more memorable had it been snow. So unlike last winter where I had a mid winter grade of F, this one has earned a much better mark. I award it a solid A-. Hopefully it can pull out an A+. That will require a 10+ inch snowfall. Maybe there is one of those still waiting in the wings.

I will fess up and say I am really done with the nuisance snows. If we cannot get 6+ inches, then let's just skip it. Also, just 22 days until meteorological spring and the start of severe weather season. Woo Hoo!