An Ugly Winter Revisited...

Winter Revisited:

On November 1^st I released my winter forecast.  I described the upcoming winter with one word: Awesome!  That seems laughable when I read it now.  

Let’s review what a few others had for their winter forecast…

Accuweather: Brutal Winter Ahead for the Midwest, Great Lakes

Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.

The National Weather Service had the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes cold and snowy. 

Every forecast I could read and the few forecasters I could speak with all thought that this past winter would be of the cold and snow variety. 

At least we all busted together.  Breaking down my forecast, I started off thinking that winter was ready to flip the switch on by the middle of November.  October gave signs of a pattern shift that would bring winter like conditions across the region before Thanksgiving. 

In the last half of November, ten days topped 50 degrees with three topping 60 degrees.  At the end of November, we did get a snowstorm which was quite tricky to forecast.  It was an overrunning event where the rain would transition to snow as a cold front overtook the moisture.   

We ended up being just a bit far west to see the best snow but we did record 5 inches of heavy snow.  Sadly it only caused two hour delays for area schools.  The good news is that we seemed to be finally on track for winter.

Nope.

December went warm and almost snowless.  Two events with one being a moisture starved clipper on the 8^th bringing 1/2 inch and another heavy wet snow on the 27^th for 2 inches.  We were also warm with the average temperature 6.2 degrees above normal in Indy. 

By now it was realized the pattern was going to be ugly and January would be warm.  We did squeak out a half dozen snow events but the biggest was 3 inches.  Indy finished with no single digit temperatures and I think Kokomo might have seen one morning with single digits.  By the end of January, Indy had 60 degrees.  Anyone holding on to the cold and snowy forecast now was just delusional.  Indy was 5.6 degrees above normal.  The idea of a second half of January seeing a big snow storm was completely off.  

If I got anything right it was my idea that February would see a moderation of temperatures.  It was.  It started warm and finished warmer.  No big snow and no cold shots.  Single digit temperatures were never realized in Indy for all of the winter and finished the month at 5.2 degrees above normal.  

While meteorological winter ends on the last day of February, I thought winter would still have something left up its sleeve for March.  It did.  Severe weather and way above normal temperatures.  As of the 25^th of March, Indy is 15.7 degrees above normal.  All kinds of records for high temperatures have been broken.  

In the end, I give both my winter outlook and winter a big fat F.  Both are well deserved.  I predicted 35 to 40 inches of snow and we had just 20 inches with that last November snow of 5 inches being the biggest all winter.  I also had forecast 4 snow days and there were two or three school delays depending on which county school you attended. 

We did manage to nickel and dime out way to near average snowfall.  Still below but all things considered, it was better than anyone could expect.  The December to February temperature anomaly was 5.5 degrees above average. 

 

We also did finish with above normal precipitation but it was cold rain rather than the white stuff.  The official write up from NWS Indy is here. 

The look back was not very pretty.  Sorry about that.  Hopefully we can do better next winter.  Hopefully.

Get Ready for Friday...

A reminder that I do many quick updates on the Facebook Page - https://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather

Here are the latest SREF updates outlining the best areas for tornado development. This is for 4 and 7 PM on Friday the 3rd.

Potential Severe Weather Outbreak

This is for Friday March 2 at 4 PM.  Significant Tornado Values are quite high...

Looking Ahead...

It is quite foolish to look almost two weeks forward but we're going to do it anyway...

Around the end of next week into the weekend (2/17 - 2/18), a significant storm looks to impact the area bringing heavy amount of snow.  The set up is near textbook for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions.  Who knows how this plays out but at least there appears to be something brewing...

Nevermind...

The 120 hour snow track on the GFS is in the first image.  Compare this to CIPS top 5 for 120 hours.

(CIPS takes the current atmospheric conditions and finds the most similar conditions from past history.  These are five snow storms which actually happened and closely match our current conditions.)

This pretty much leads me to think we will not see much if any snow this weekend...

A Scary Sunday Night Ahead

Severe weather is a concern anytime but when it happens in the darkness, it is downright scary.  Tonight's storms will still be just a forecast even for those who stay up late to catch the 11 PM news.  Storms likely won't enter western Indiana until after midnight.  Kokomo until 1 to 2 AM and maybe even as late as 3 AM as the front has been slowing down all day.

Here is the latest HRRR forecast for 3 AM and you can see the line extending well up into Michigan.  Temperatures and dew points will have surged to near 50 locally and instability while not nearly as strong the southern portion of the state is more than ample for straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. 

Even with just an isolated tornado threat, the likelihood of a significant wind knocking down trees and power likes and weak structures is great.

Here is the latest SPC outlook.  Kokomo is in the slight risk area.  It has pretty much been that way all day.

There won't be much to update until later this evening.  We are just awaiting the storm...

For Monday, we have this to look forward to...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A 

WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST 

MONDAY.

* TIMING...700 AM TO 500 PM

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 

AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED 

OBJECTS  OUTSIDE. SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. 

DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY 

FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Tricky Friday Forecast

Today was a surprise.  While accumulating snow was expected, the 4 inches which fell was not.  Clippers can change track which this did and like we always hope, this one over performed.  Tomorrow could turn out the same.

The weather will be in your face the minute you step out the door on Friday morning.  It will be zero or even colder.  Easily the coldest night of the season.  Other than the cold, the morning should be uneventful.

Snow picks up in the afternoon and will be going as good as it gets by the dinner hour.  While this won't be as big of a snow as today, it will add to it.  There could be mixing issues.  Two systems are coming together and exactly where that converges will have big implications for they type of precipitation we receive.

Snow and mixed precipitation will continue through Saturday morning.  I can see Saturday morning be rather messy for anyone on the road until mid morning. 

Follow along tomorrow on Facebook as we see how this plays out.  I'm thinking a couple of inches of snow and a touch of freezing rain or sleet.

Oh, two hour delay for tomorrow.  Slick roads and cold temps make it seem logical.  :)

Temps Diving...

Remember Friday (or even Tuesday)?

Don't forget to join us on Facebook to share in the conversation.

A True Winter Storm

This should feel like a true winter storm.  Temperatures will plunge until reaching single digits be Saturday morning.  Strong winds will blow snow, reducing visibility and causing sub zero wind chills.

Just before 7 AM, you can see surface temperatures and the thickness line for snow crossing the border into the state.

Don't expect much relief until Monday either.  Hope your ready for a weekend of hunkering down.

[Updated] Snowstorm Alert!

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THUR TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

* TIMING.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT.SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THUR EVENING & FRIDAY  MORNING RUSH HRS.

* OTHER IMPACTS.BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DRIFTING & REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS.3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE N. COUNTIES/2 TO

 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTL PORTIONS OF CNTL IN/1 TO 3  INCHES ACROSS THE S. COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

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I must admit, the system up until yesterday seem rather anemic for moisture.  The surface low looked to move a bit faster to the east and the cold was a slower to arrive.  I didn't pay much attention to the system still thinking an inch or two drawn out over a 24 to 36 hour period would really be nothing more than a tease and nuisance.

However the models now seem to agree with a slow moving system with the cold catching up and a deepening sub 990 low pressure.  All of that combined will produce a pretty good snow maker for a large area of the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley.

That said, we still are on the southern edge and are dependent on the slow movement and wrap around moisture enhanced by Lake Michigan.  There is a lot which would go wrong.

Focusing on the positives, the modest amount of snow will be wind blown for a solid 24 to 30 hours.  This snow will be a high ratio snow so limited moisture 12:1 to 17:1 can still produce a fair amount of accumulations.  We won't have to deal with the heavy wet snow knowing down trees and power lines which is good news.

Yesterday, I made the off hand comment on the Facebook page that I didn't expect to see any cancellations or even delays.  That thinking has also changed.

So lets break it down...

At 7 AM on Thursday, we have a lull in precipitation and the rain/snow line is just moving into western Indiana.

By1 PM in the afternoon, snow is cranking as are the winds.  Over the next 6 hours, expect a couple of inches to fall and winds to become sustained near 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH.  I think any evening activities will be cancelled. 

Thursday evening has the rain/snow line through Ohio.  The slow moving low pressure continues to deepen as the wind driven snow makes conditions difficult.  We are also heading for real temperatures in the teen and wind chills below zero.  The 50's from recent will be just a memory.

The bulk of the snow will be over by mid morning on Friday.  The winds will remain strong with gust to near 30 MPH through the afternoon before easing up a bit.  Snow accumulations will be on the order of 4 to 6 inches with drifting.  I just don't see area schools being in session on Friday.

Some flurries could continue through the weekend and no rise above freezing until Monday.

For me, I'm preparing for a 4 day/3 might camping trip in Hoosier National Forest this weekend.  (The wife thinks I am nuts and she will be home nice and warm with the two dogs.)  I say bring it on!  :)

There could be more snow as early as Tuesday of next week too.