No rain this week...

I don't see any chance for rain this week. The weather will be sunny and hot,

The rain did fall...

I guess some rain showers did arrive this afternoon with 1/10" so far. The spotty rain shows will continue for the rest of the evening.

All the severe weather predictions have vacated IL and IN with no risk for severe weather in our area.

The local NWS office out of Indianapolis has added a 20% chance for thunderstorms for tomorrow after 2 PM. I think most activities including Brickyard qualifying will be fine.

MESSY SET UP

The SPC just updated today's outlook for severe weather and said what many amateur forecasters were thinking (and seeing). The widespread could deck across IL/IN has made a messy set up for predicting where convection, if any, will initiate providing severe weather.

The current SPC outlook for severe weather takes most of Howard county out of the risk area and all areas north and west are now excluded. We just barely stay in the undated risk area.

The radar shows no rainfall threatening the area and the southeast track of what is visible would not bring anything to Kokomo. It would not surprise me to see minimal rain falling through the remainder of the day.

Thunderstorms & Rain Today

A disorganized mess covers northern IL and northwest IN. Everything should move south and during the day with storms spinning up around the lunch hour. The thread for severe weather is slight according to the SPC with wind and hail being the biggest thread with localized flooding also possible.

A Flash Flood Watch covers much of northwest IN reaching down to include Cass & White Counties.

Yesterday evening saw a storm that was building in Howard County become strong over Grant and Blackford Counties knocking down a few trees and power lines and dropping 1/2 to 3/4 inch hail. I would expect similar today with some storms popping up and then spinning down quickly before the storms will likely form linear lines.

More rain and possible severe T'Storms Friday

Around an inch of rain has fallen with the rain in Howard County. Much heavier amounts of rain has fallen to our west with amount reaching over 4" in Royal Center being reported by an Amateur Radio Observer for the NWS.

Additional rain is expected to fall today and tomorrow. A few afternoon and evening storms are possible today.

On Friday there is a slight chance for severe weather in the area with the late afternoon and evening have the strongest possibility for thunderstorms.

The weekend should be dry and warm.

The Weather Settling Down

It looks like this last burst of rain will likely be it. The radar looks clear from this point forward so by 6:30 the rain will be out of the area. The storms overall the past 3 days has dropped about 1.15" of rain with a few areas receiving more.

Look forward to a great weekend of weather.

Storms Overnight

Storms hit overnight around 1 AM and left power outages and down trees in its wake. Several crews for the city were out clearing trees on my drive in to work. Rain will continue today with additional chances for storms. Wind again will be the significant threat.

No warnings were issued with the storms.

The SPC has just a slight risk for today. A new update will be out in the hour.

Moderate Risk & 2% Tornado Risk

The latest SPC update pushed our are into the moderate risk area and 2% chance for tornados. A very good chance for severe wind exists overnight with 45% chance for 70 MPH winds. Severe winds have been reported in IA and IL already with this storm.

Cass County in Severe Thunderstorm Watch Area

Cass County is included in a large watch box covering the northern 3rd of Indiana plus the Chicago area. Storms currently extend from South Bend to Ft Wayne.

Severe Weather Moving This Way

Unstable conditions exist over IL and IN downstream of strong storms in IA and new forming storms on the IL/WI border. Currently a Mesoscale Discussion is over Indiana which would likely point to a watch box coming soon. Storms looks to build and continue through the night.

You know the situation is bad when...

...a warning for agressive bees is issued. Good thing this is in Texas and not here.

TXC179-172245-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
PAMPA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
231 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE PAMPA AND
GRAY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE CITY OF PAMPA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A SWARM OF AGGRESSIVE
BEES. LOCAL OFFICIALS ARE WORKING TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM. TO HELP
PROTECT CITIZENS...DUNCAN STREET BETWEEN 23RD AND 25TH HAS BEEN
CLOSED. CITIZENS IN THIS AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY INDOORS. THE
PAMPA POLICE DEPARTMENT IS ALSO ASKING MOTORISTS TO STAY OUT OF THIS
AREA.

$$

Severe Weather Still Expected Today

The SPC 1300 UCT (8:30 AM EST) updated the slight risk for today and made IA, Northern IL, and a small portion of Northwestern IN a moderate risk. We remain under a slight risk but later afternoon and evening storms could still produce strong winds, large hail, and dangerous lighting. The moderate risk for tornadoes remain in IA and small portion of NE and SD.

Flooding has also been associated with these storms.

More Rain & Risk

Additional rain is on track for today with everyone waking to light showers covering the area. The track is moving SE and we are along the top edge so showers will come and go for most of the day.

The SPC has us under a slight risk for severe weather but much like yesterday, I would expect things to be west and south of us for the most part. The slight risk continues for tomorrow.

Slow & Steady She Comes...

It looks like a slow and steady rain is here for the morning hours. A break will happen mid day with additional rain coming later in the afternoon and possibly evening. Rainfall totaling could top 1/2" today.

A slight risk for severe weather is in effect for much of Indiana today and virtually all of the state on Wednesday and Thursday.

Indianapolis NWS Forecast

The 3:30 PM updated forecast out of the Indianapolis National Weather Service Office thinks Wednesday will be the only severe day this week. We will just have to wait and see...

No significant updated forecasts or maps from the SPC for Tueday and beyond will be available until 2 AM Tuesday.

SPC Adjustment for Tuesday

You can see the midday SPC update for Tuesday move the slight risk of 15% to the northern half of our state. The set up for severe weather should be hindered by the moderate drought conditions which will not provide a lot of evaporation needed to produce a significant number of super cell storms.

Severe Risk For Tuesday and Wednesday

Of course I write about the slight risk for today and everything takes a few steps west and just like that, the slight risk is gone for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday now are the predicted days for severe weather in the area with all 5 days this week seeing a chance for storms and rainfall.

Today is the 18th day without rain.

Slight Risk for Monday

I have been reluctant to post about Monday being a slight risk day since things have been pretty weak and nothing has materialized with the past few forecasts by the SPC. However this set up looks pretty good. There is some directional wind-sheer and could make for an interesting set up for eastern IA to Indiana.

Tomorrow will be worth watching pretty closely. Wednesday and Thursday also might be something to keep an eye as the week progresses.

SPC Lowers Our Risk

It looks like the afternoon update significantly moved the risk area back west. We look generally in the clear but some isolated thunderstorms are just inside the IL border heading this way.

Minor Risk For Severe Weather Today

The SPC has place our area under a very slight risk today for severe weather including a 2% tornado risk. The risk area is very large and I wouldn't be overly concerned but it might be worthwhile to keep your eye on the weather forecasts as the day progresses.

Lack of Rain Continues

June 28th was last day of rain other than a couple of trace amounts in July. The rain shortage continues to grow and it doesn't look like rain is coming anytime soon.

2 Days Data Lost

Due to some glitch in the console logger, it had to be reset which dumped any data not downloaded by the computer. So from Sunday (7/8) around 5pm to today (7/10) 8pm the data is gone. Sorry...

Historical Images are generating on a normal schedule and will be all done by midnight.

Weather Graphics Not Working

The weather graphics are not working on the site. They are generating with old data. The text only webpages are updating fine. I will work to resolve the issue later tonight.

Hot (Again) Today & Showers Later

Another hot day before some cooling off on Tuesday through the weekend. Thunderstorms are possible tonight through Wednesday but are not anticipated to be severe. There were a few locations which received a pop up shower on July 4th, however no rain has been the case for most of the area since June 28th.

Only 0.02" has been recorded in July on the west side of Kokomo.

Drink plenty of liquids and wear sunscreen (SPF 30+) if you are outside.

Storm Risk Increases

The SPC has updated the area to have between a 5% and 15% risk for severe weather. A nice storm has materialized from nothing to a solid (non warned) thunderstorm in Tipton Co in about an hour. The overall appearance outside during my lunch break shows building clouds which could bring possible isolated thundershowers. Storms will likely have short down bursts and dangerous lightning.

No Risk Today

The SPC has dropped any risk for our area today for severe weather. The radar looks clear but widely scattered thunderstorms could appear still given the conditions could still support a couple. They would likely be weak and short lived and the biggest danger will be lightning.

The weekend looks hot and muggy.

Severe Storms Staying South

The latest SPC update did push the 15% severe risk line south to about I-70. This seems to mirror the radar activity which has just a single cell in Benton Co and everything else south of I-70. There are Tornado and Thunderstorm Watches in southern Indiana and extend east to the Jersey coast and back to central Kansas.

The good weather outside continues but the Benton Co storm looks to move through Clinton Co around 6 PM. A slight shift could have Howard Co see some rainfall as well.

5:40 Update

It looks like Burlington, Russiaville, Tipton, Sharpsville, Windfall will catch some rain from the Benton Co cell as it passes through by 7 PM.

SPC Increases The Risk Area West

In a reversal of the morning Day 1 Outlook, the SPC has expended the 15% risk area further west from IL into MO. There was no further southern movement of the risk area. Some storms have popped up in the south and eastern areas of Indiana. Nothing is on radar threatening the Howard County area.

My own observation while outside shows it to be a beautiful day.

SPC Risk Area Sliding South

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) moved the 30% risk which covered our area yesterday to OH and PA and left us with a 15% risk for severe weather. Now that has slid south with our area remaining along the northern edge of the 15% are. The areas north of here are now covered with a 5%. That is the lowest risk given.

What do these percentages mean? The SPC defines risk as the likelihood of severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) from any given point to a radius of 25 miles. If we interpret that today, the SPC thinks severe weather in Kokomo or within 25 miles of any direction is just 15%. (That can change with the next forecast around 1 PM.) As we know, thunderstorms are isolated and can be severe in Greentown or Tipton but not Kokomo. So now we just watch and wait...

Sadly the chance for storms (severe and non severe) remain at 60% so expect some rain to fall this afternoon and evening. Fireworks shows going off "at dusk" might also be a few minutes early if we have a good cloud deck blocking the sun.

Happy July 4th!

Storms Remain In The Forecast

Thunderstorms remain in the forecast today. The chance for storms has increased but the chance for severe storms has decreased. Overall I think the activity will be this afternoon and evening. Don't be surprised if there are not any watch boxes are issued for our area but anticipate some warnings as storms pop up.

Storms will linger in Indiana through Thursday morning. Rainfall will be 1/4-1/2" with more expected from storms in spots.

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

July 4th Hazardous Weather Possible

The Storm Prediction Center has a 30% chance for severe weather across northern IN & IL. The main severe weather will be damaging wind and hail events associated with the thunderstorms. Storms should arrive in the afternoon and continue through the evening. The storms will exit Indiana by Thursday morning.

Dangerous could to ground lightning will also be associated with these storms. Lightning can kill. Remember the 30/30 rule.

The 30/30 Rule states that people should seek shelter if the "Flash-To-Bang" delay (length of time in seconds between a lightning flash and its subsequent thunder), is 30 seconds or less, and that they remain under cover until 30 minutes after the final clap of thunder.

Storm spotter activation could be needed after 2 PM on Wednesday.

2 PM Update:

The SPC is quite confident about the severe weather outlook for Wednesday. I think this map shows Indiana is in for some thunderstorm activity.

July 4 & 5: Severe Storms

All indications have severe weather in the area on July 4th and the 5th. Conditions appear ripe for linear storms ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW during the day. Storms will also be remnants of the possible derecho event from Tuesday across IA, WI, MN, and IL where strong winds and unstable conditions in the atmosphere support widespread wind damage and severe hail. Tornadoes are less likely with these storms but are always a potential.

I storngly suggest monitoring weather conditions during any outdoor activities on the 4th and be prepared to take cover quickly.

Funnel Cloud (6/28/2007)

You might have missed it but Thursday evening brought some excitment to the local Skywarn spotters and law enforcement. A short lived funnel appeared on the western side of Kokomo. It was weak and disorganized. However the NWS didn't think radar or conditions could support a funnel cloud so our "ground truth" was not enough to warrant a warning. At least Scott B. was in a position to get off a photo of the funnel before it went away. Thank you for allowing kokomo-weather.com to use it.