August Rain Suprise...

Oddly enough August has proven to be another rainy month. In 2006, we had 5.15" and this month we have had 4.31" as of the time of this writing. Since last August, only June has had more rain with 4.5". With the chances for rain over the next week, we might be able to top June.

Less Than Advertised

That is how I would describe the weather event for today. Things were generally mild in the area and for most of Indiana. A few scattered reports of wind damage or small hail were reported buy nothing like what was forecasted.

Oddly enough both sides of the state did see more powerful effects of the storm with IL seeing mostly wind and MI seeing wind and 3 reported tornadoes.

The big loser tonight was prep football. Some area games were rescheduled after a long delay and some did play with interruptions. Lightning is the main concern for outdoor sports.

Limited chances early for storms possible before clearing.

Storms Nearby!

The line has been building since 3 PM and is getting stronger. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are in Cass & Carrol Counties and by 6 PM Howard County should be seeing some activity...

Trigger Pulled - Moderate Risk (High Winds)

The 9 AM convective update was slightly delayed and I was pretty sure there was a discussion to see if the SPC would adjust our area to a moderate risk for severe weather. There was an upgrade and it is due to mainly high winds which were over much of the northern areas yesterday. Those storms did drop a a couple of tornadoes in IL and MI and potentially could do the same today.

Rough Weather Possible Today

Yesterday saw a strong storms move across northern IL and IN plus lower WI and most of MI. The storms were both linear and discrete and brought with it dozens and dozens of reports of damaging winds and a confirm tornado in Chicago during the early rush hour.

That same set up is in place but slightly south today and looks in include our area. Damaging winds from the storm development will potentially cause several waves to cross our area. It is expected these storms could start by early afternoon and continue past sunset include several bow echos.

Friday night football might be interrupted due to the weather as well.

Slight to Moderate Risk Today

We have been included in a slight risk for severe weather and portions of IN, IL, MI, and WI are in a moderate risk. There is a good cluster of severe storms in IA and IL and moving east. They will miss us but anything building south could drag across our area.

We also have been included in a slight risk for tomorrow. Tomorrow could potentially be upgraded to a moderate risk day as well given the current forecast models.

No Risk Thunderstorms

The next three days (Wed-Fri) has a slight risk from Nebraska to Michigan. A few northern counties of Indiana is included but nothing in this area of the state. Some pop up thunderstorms are possible but nothing severe is expected.

Hurricane Josh

No related to local weather but I found an interesting topic I want to share. There is a fellow named Hurricane Josh which purposely put himself in Mexico to feel Hurricane Dean which is now a full fledged CAT 5.

It is an interesting read if you have some spare time...

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139960

FYI: we might not know what happens to Josh for a few days (or more) after he takes a hit...

It just keeps raining...

The rain keeps falling cancelling/postponing many outdoor sporting events. Over 2" recorded already at my location.

The SPC still remains confident about the possibility of severe weather in our area. A thunderstorm watch has been in effect in OH for a couple of hours this afternoon.

One inch of RAIN!

Wow! I finally have recorded more than 1" of rainfall for a single day at the west side reporting and observation station since back in May. I honestly would not be shocked if we got near 2" before all is said and done.

There is lots of cloud cover here and in IL and that might keep things more stable which would be good.

Stormy Monday Ahead

The overnight brought some isolated and scattered storms in Indiana. Howard county didn't see any of the rough stuff as the famous Brick Wall of 2007 diverted it right around us. Overnight reports of 1/2" to 1/1/2" of rainfall were reported in surrounding counties with 1/10" measured locally.

Today has the potential for afternoon and evening storms with agreements from the Storm Prediction Center, the local NWS office, and amateur forecasters such as myself. A Slight Risk for severe weather currently is in place for today. Remnants of the tropical storm Erin could bring a lot of moisture into play for our area today and flash flooding is possible. (Additional blog entries today as conditions warrant.)

Potential Overnight Storms

There already has been some severe thunderstorms south of us in Clinton and Tipton counties. No watch is being issued but some warnings will follow this storm over the next few hours. The SPC has added a 5% risk for wind and hail for our area and a 2% risk for tornadoes but no overall slight risk for today.

Monday does include a slight risk overall.

Rain Showers & Thunderstorms

It looks like the next few days will bring some rain and possible thunderstorms. Monday is a slight risk day for severe weather according to the SPC 3 day forecast.

Tornado Touchdown Reported

Most of the big stuff missed Howard county. A tornado touchdown was reported near Sweetser in Grant co. There were a lot of wind and hail reports along the path.

Lightning was the best part of the show in Howard county.

Things look clear now so sleep well.

Storms Close

Turn on a radio or telelvision and be alert! Things are going to be hard to see at night so don't take chances.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 AM

It does not include Howard County but includes Cass, Miami,
Grant Counties...


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TORNADO WATCH 600 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-160800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0600.070816T0230Z-070816T0800Z/

IN
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEN               BLACKFORD
CASS                 DE KALB             ELKHART
FULTON               GRANT               HUNTINGTON
JAY                  KOSCIUSKO           LAGRANGE
LA PORTE             MARSHALL            MIAMI
NOBLE                PULASKI             ST. JOSEPH
STARKE               STEUBEN             WABASH
WELLS                WHITE               WHITLEY

Late Evening Storms

There is a large storm in NW Indiana moving SE. It is quite powerful producing golfball sized hail and storm tops at 60,000 feet. Quite impressive height for night time when there is no heating from the sun. I guess the earlier mention about plenty of energy in the atmosphere holds true.

The storm has now receive a tornado warning as I write this blog entry.

If the path holds, it should be in our area after midnight.

Destabilization and High Cape Values

The almost stationary front running from IA through central IN could make things interesting if the atmospheric cap would break. Dew points and heating even with the intermittent cloud deck has produced destabilization along the front. Combine that with high cape values and things could break loose for some severe weather. The SPC has even move the 2% tornado risk over to include our area.

The radar remains clear for our area at this moment but does show some activity along an east/west line near Chicago.

The Thursday risk from the SPC has changed to not include our area.

Slight Risk Wednesday & Thursday

The SPC has Indiana under a slight risk for 2 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Slight Risk Pulled Back

The slight risk has been pulled back and moved west to the IN/IL border. I think we will have a good chance for scattered storms tomorrow but the severity looks to be less.

Tuesday is a Slight Risk Day

Tuesday has become a slight risk day for severe weather according to the SPC. Another update from the for tomorrow should be in a couple of hours with additional information.

Slight Risk Cancelled

I watched various weather models and forecasts for today and really didn't see anything that made me think we had much chance for severe weather. After the latest update from the SPC, they apparently agree and have removed the entire slight risk area over MI, OH, and IN.

A chance remains for a pop up thunderstorm this afternoon and evening but they will be isolated and very spotty.

Slight Risk For Sunday

I am not sure why I mention it but there is a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow (Sunday). The SPC did have a slight risk for the lower half of MI and a smidgen of IN and OH. The 2nd update has pushed the slight risk down to cover the top half of IN and OH as well as the lower half of MI.

All we can do is wait for tomorrow since nothing seems very concrete with the forecast.

Kokomo in the Clear

It appears Kokomo will remain dry and free of any storms. The SPC has moved the slight risk area south and east away from us. It looks like watering the yard will be needed.

August has seen 0.19 inches. The 2006 total for August was 5.14 inches.

Nothing for Kokomo...

But as earlier mentioned, the storms are continuing to build and Randolph County has a severe storm warning. The SPC is considering a watch along that line in Indiana. I would not expect our area to be included. I cannot see anything heading our way.

We sure could use some rain.

STORMS BUILDING IN INDIANA

A cluster of severe storms, including a tornado warned storm, near Lima, OH has a trail to Spencer, IN. The storms in Indiana have been building over the last 30 to 45 minutes and radar imagery shows a well defined line of potential severe weather waiting to fire. I would expect an active storm line by 4 PM including a couple of isolated warnings.

The severe storm line is not on any path toward Kokomo or surrounding counties.

Downdrafts & Storms

It looks to be another scorcher today. There is already some strong downdrafts in northern IN from a bow echo. Thunderstorms should build over the afternoon over IN and eastward and continue into the evening.

Storms East and West But...

There are watch boxes to the west and east of Indiana and some storms east of Indianapolis dumping heavy rain but it seems a bubble over Kokomo is keeping the storms/rain away.

Thursday also is a slight risk day for our area.

Slight Risk for Wednesday

The slight risk remains in place for today and tomorrow has been added. Tomorow looks more likely since the storms firing today are in IA. Nothing is threatening in our area at this time.

Tuesday's Storm Risk

The slight risk for storms covers much of Indiana for today but the larger threat is across MI, the very northeast corner of IN and an upper sliver of Ohio (and Ontario Canada). Overall I would expect storms to be later in the afternoon or early evening. Storms will be scattered and like yesterday could build and dissipate quickly but produce heavy rain while active.

Yesterday had areas receiving 1 to 3 inches of rain and other areas just a county away receiving nothing.

Sprinkles & Sunshine

It looks like all that will happen to Kokomo is sprinkles and sunshine. Everything broke apart or split the county. Much like yesterday, no rain to speak about.

Storms in the area...

Some storms are in the area. The SPC does have a discussion taking place for our area but no plans for a watch.


DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG SURFACE FRONT/LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...EAST OF THE
MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND HEATING TO
NEAR 90F OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITHIN LIGHT UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS WEAK...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE PROBABLY UNSATURATED ENOUGH AT MID-LEVELS
TO PROMOTE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG OUTWARD SPREADING OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE ...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

Storm Loses Steam

The approaching storm lost steam as it kept inching closer. Finally over Cass County it went to nothing on the radar and no rain has fallen. Have a good evenings sleep.

No Watch But...

The SPC ended the mesoscale discussion and didn't issue a watch box. The storm which has been heading this was has lost its intensity but has grown to cover a larger area. It seem that unless it falls apart that Howard County will see some activity around midnight to 1 AM.

Severe storms heading this way...

A strong cell has been making its way into Indiana and its present course does look to bring it in the area in before midnight. It is moving slow and could lose steam before reaching the area. This storm has produced wind and a reported tornado near Romeoville, IL.

The SPC does have an ongoing discussion about the severe weather in the area and has raised the tornado threat to 5%. It is unclear if a watch box will be issued but warnings can be issued as warranted. I suggest staying tuned to radio or television for further developments.

Unsteady Weather Conditions Remain

The threat for severe weather thread remains in place but nothing is building over the OH valley at this time. Satellite imagery shows a could deck cover the northern half of IN. IL and southern IA shows some clearing over the region. Storms should build late in the day with an afternoon sun providing heating.

Rain showers will be early evening and scattered.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather

The SPC has increased the risk area to include IA through OH including the upper half of IN. The strongest area for severe weather would be the northern third of IL and IN. A low pressure will move east along the frontal boundary providing instability.

Conditions are favorable for severe storms along the boundary with the likely hood for the most damaging will be along the IN/MI border.

While conditions are in place for severe weather, it is unlikely any severe weather will be widespread. Storms will be isolated and move quickly across any area. Longer, non severe storms may cover a much broader area and bring much needed rain.

Please anticipate an additional update after lunch hour. A better handle on activity should be available by then.

SUNDAY - SUNDAY - SUNDAY

Interestingly the SPC took the day 2 outlook from no risk to slight risk with the 1730Z update. The primary threat currently targeted is squarely the top half of Indiana and small portions of adjacent states. Isolated supercell possibility is likely for our area ahead of the low.

Small Thunder Boomer Goes South

I was outside and could see some darkening and hear some rumble but it all is going south my house. Maybe you gor lucky and saw some rain...

Radar west of Chicago shows some stuff moving this way...