SNOW? MAYBE!

Yes, there might be some snow on the way in a couple of weeks. Many of the forecast models are showing a strong cold snap the week of November 12th. We are talking 10 to 15 degrees below normal which would get us down into the 20's for lows.

Add the possibility of precipitation and snow could be falling sooner than we think...

30 degrees - Brrrrrr....

We finally saw a sub freezing tempature today. It bottomed out today at 30.9 a7 8:14 AM. Tomorrow morning will be the same...

Winter Forecast

Another winter outlook from an Accuweather forecaster.

Click Here

The 2 second overview is...

Warmer and wetter than normal for Indiana.

Wind Chill Added - Heat Index Removed

With a clear change in the seasons, I updated the mini page for cell phones or PDAs to display the wind chill rather than the heat index. We hit 39 today for the first in a long while.

The weekend looks to be a rainy mess on Friday and Saturday. Yuck!

Another Winter Forecast

A fun winter forecast...

Eleven-year-old Olivia King of Raleigh, NC and her father Tom pose with Armstrong, the woolly worm who outpaced 1,400 other caterpillars Saturday for the honor of proclaiming the official winter weather forecast at the 30th annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk.

Mountain folk use the brown and black stripes on the woolly worm to predict the severity of the coming winter.

According to Armstrong, the first four weeks of winter will be cold and snowy. The 5th and 6th weeks will be cold, while weeks 7 and 8 will be cold with light snow. Armstrong says to expect a mild spell during weeks 10 and 11 with a cold an snowy close to the winter in weeks 12 and 13.

The winter weather forecast is an important subject for the people of Banner Elk, a one-stop-light village nestled between the three largest ski slopes in the High South. For 30 years they have raced the black and brown striped worms to determine which one worm deserves the honor of making the winter weather forecast. Tradition says that the black stripes predict cold and snowy weather while brown stripes point toward milder conditions. Over thirty years, the woolly worm has been all or mostly correct eighty-five percent of the time.

Reference Woolly Worm.com

Recent Severe Weather - Was there too much hype?

I have debated the past couple of days whether or not there was too much hype on the storms and was I partially responsible for some of it. The reason I asked myself that was due to Howard County being a bust for the severe weather but I provided several alerts or warnings for people to be prepared.

In the end I say no, there was not too much hype. Many people ignore the weather except for any forecasted snow causes a run on bread, milk, and eggs but that is a whole different topic for conversation.

Let's look at some of the devastation from Wednesday and Thursday and how widespread it was over many states. Tornadoes on Thursday were reported from the Florida Gulf to the top of Michigan. The real problem is uncertainty on where storms will happen. Communities like Nappanne in northern Indiana took a very hard hit. Unlike many times when storms target smaller areas, this storm set up covered a lot of territory. It meant a lot of people needed to be aware while only a small portion were actually effected.

In the end, while Howard County came out fine in these storms, it was the wise decision to keep people locally notified of the possible dangerous situation and I do not regret doing my part. I also think the time of year warranted a "heads up" since most people don't associate October with a tornado/tornado outbreak.

Things look calm for the next week or so. Some good soaking rains should start on Monday and last much of the week. I would expect 2 to 3 inches before it is all said and done.

Storm Reports

Things took off across multiple states and nearby. Howard County remain pretty quiet sans the one tornado warning for the strom which moved in from Clinton County. It brought some nickle sized hail and 40 to 50 MPH winds.

Mike Prangley, channel 18 meterologist has an excellent recap in his blog with photos and radar images. Click Here to Vist.

StormTrack has a lot of good photos and chase accounts of yesterday. It convers the entire event. Click to Enjoy...

11:05 PM - THREAT DIMINISHED

It seems the threat for severe weather has greatly diminished. We might remain near the very bottom edge for a new Tornado Watch being considered. Overall there was much less severe in our area than expected which is good. However the was a reasonable amount of severe weather to warrant the severe weather discussions for the past few days.

A possible organized wall may have made its way across Howard County but it was difficult for trained spotters to make the call. The 50 MPH plus ground speed also made it difficult to get a good look at it.

In the end we can look for another wave of non-severe thunderstorms around midnight.

7:30 PM - STILL AROUND (ME & THE STORMS)

Things are still happening and Cass County did have a Tornado Warning for some radar indicated rotation. There is a fair amount of activity out there but most of it is not near us at the present time. I would say around 8:30 we should be closer to the action.

5:00 PM - Tornado Watch Issue For Area Until Midnight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until midnight out time. Severe Weather expected after 7 PM in our area. This will be my last post as I am readying myself for a full evening of spotting. You are strongly advised to monitor commercial media (radio & television) or your weather radio for current conditions.

I must stress this system looks to be very severe with strong winds and tornadoes very, very likely. All parties from casual weather enthusiasts to professional chasers to the NWS plus commercial media is extremely concerned about the present conditions. It is thought that a strong outbreak of tornadoes is very possible.

Please take precautions for you and your family.

2:55 PM MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR IN/IL

It looks like the tornado threat will be around 6 PM according to the SPC and their thinking. Look for a watch box around 4 PM.

Reference Here

2:45 PM - First Afternoon Watch Box

The first watch box of the afternoon has been issues and is more than twice the size of a typical box. It includes portions of 8 states including south/southwest Indiana.

Things are still looking active for our area but the big show might be a little later than expected with much of the activity happening after dark. Darkness makes even mildly dangerous situation very bad as it is nearly impossible to track things very well.

Otherwise we have a very windy day happening right now.

8:50 AM - Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook

This is their thoughts on the day...

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH INTO ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND OZARKS YESTERDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. THE IOWA LOW WILL DRAW A BROAD CURRENT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.

AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IOWA LOW.

WITH JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SERVE AS FUEL...THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. WITH A BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE ROTATING STORMS COULD BECOME LONG-LIVED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

8:15 AM - Rain Ending - Clear Until Afternoon

The rain is ending and clearing should be on tap for the rest of the morning into the afternoon hours. The dry slot ahead of the cold front should increase instability in the atmosphere by late afternoon into the evening.

This will be the most severe round of weather. Expect the current Tornado Watch to be cancelled before 9 AM. Southwest areas of the box have already been let to expire.

What is the key factor for later storms? Dew Points. 60-65+ will increase intensity. Dew Points falling down into the 50's will keep some of the energy these storms need from being available.

TORNADO WATCH

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 535 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719...WW 720...

DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH MO INTO
IL. THIS SYSTEM IS FORCING A LINE OF STORMS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 50
KT THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND
THE FAST MOTION OF THE STORMS SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF 1 KM SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.

SEVERE WEATHER ON TAP TODAY

Yesterday's dynamic storms produced severe weather over the nations breadbasket states and south has continued to produce severe weather all night. Severe weather is in IL now and will be here mid to late morning.

This is a powerful system!

From the Indianapolis NWS Office

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING...


FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHCS OF SVR WX TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACRS THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD.
SPC HAS CONCERNS ABOUT ONGOING SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. TIMING
AND LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY WOULD ARGUE AGAINST THIS BUT WITH A
STRONG LL JET OF AROUND 60 KTS AND AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF SHEAR
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SVR STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
SHUD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. LAYER RH VALUES SHOW A
DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE FA AT THIS TIME AND THIS MATCHES NICELY
WITH THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEHIND THE
STORMS. THUS EXPECT CLOUD CVR TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
DECREASE IN CLD CVR WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND GFS/NAM
HAVE SFC BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1000 OR MORE ACRS THE AREA BY 0Z. JET
MAX OF OVR 100 KTS WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROF AND BE
SWINGING UP THRU INDIANA FROM 0Z-12Z FRI. LL JET STILL LOOKS LIKE
ABOUT 50KTS OUT OF THE SW DURING THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 70-80 KTS. 0-3KM SRH IS OVR 300 UNTIL AFTER 6Z.
SPC SREFS GIVE A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 AT 0Z. LCLS AND LFCS ARE LOW. SIG TOR PARAMETER IS
OVER 4 ACRS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME AS WELL. ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING
TO TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING. BOW ECHOES WITH SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO FAVORED. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT BEST CHCS WILL BE FROM 0-6Z...BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS
BACK TO 21Z IN CASE THINGS GET STARTED A LITTLE EARLY.

Tornado Threat Creeps In For Indiana

A 2% to 5% tornado risk has been issued for Indiana overnight. Weather in IL moving our way seems pretty quiet for now. All wcurrent arnings are in the South or Plain States.

Today Lives Up To The Hype

This storm system has been hyped for several days and today was Day 1 for the plain states. There were a few doubts here and there but no more. This system is living up to the hype.

There are multiple tornado warnings with actual touchdowns plus countless wind and hail events. This system is as much dynamic as anything and dynamics can keep storms fueled through the night. Dynamic storms don't need heating from the sun but they can explode with it.

Experienced chasers that have a history of being where storms fire are talking Northern Indiana with Lafayette being a great starting point for Thursday.

Stay tuned for Day 2...

Some Strong Wording from the NWS

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND 
NORTHWEST INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING NOW FOR 
THIS SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER. GATHER 
VALUABLES AND YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND KEEP TUNED 
TO TV AND RADIO TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING 
SEVERE STORM THREAT.

Reference: HERE

The Final Day Two Outlook is Out

We are on track for a major hit if everything happens as the forecast models predict. To pinpoint even a little more, Champain, IL to South Bend, IN looks to be the best place to catch the best part of the outbreak.

Day 2 Outlook

The next outlook will be day one in about 12 hours...

Severe Storms On Track (plus Morning Fog)

Some early morning fog is over much of Indiana. Drive safe...

Severe weather is on track and the SPC keeps the Moderate Risk squarly over Indiana for Thursday. Most money is it will go High Risk on Thursday. (The same holds true for the Moderate Risk areas today.)

Watch the plain state activities today for some insight into tomorrow. The already have seen some early storms and watch boxes are in effect.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Upcoming Severe Event Explained

I have to admit I am not weather geeky enough to really dig down deep into forecast models and such to come up with original ideas on the weather patterns. I hang out where the weather nerds talk about the weather and I read and learn on the fly.

Usually the conversation is difficult to understand and goes off topic many times so I don't link to it but provide very quick cliff notes on what will impact Kokomo and Indiana. This upcoming event really is pretty unique and could honestly be very dangerous across many states over many days.

I really wanted to find a way to convey the possible upcoming weather event and think the explanation by Accuweather Meteorologist Henry Margusity does an excellent job. I highly suggest taking a few minutes and playing the video at the bottom of this blog entry. You will learn a lot...

Click Here To Read and Watch Henry's Explnation.

Severe Weather Late Wednesday & Thursday

It looks like severe weather might arrive late on Wednesday and last through Thursday. This event still looks big and while there might be a few possible bust scenarios, the best bust possibility would be significant cloud cover on Thursday so no heating to get convection going.

There is a possibility this could go High Risk for Wednesday in the plain states and Thursday for us.

This was the last High Risk in October for Indiana - Click Here.

Active Severe Weather Pattern (Lookout Thursday!)

An active pattern of severe weather has been building in the plain states since last week. It tried to get off the ground and do something but never managed to get beyond a few thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two.

However the parameters to go big have all come together and have everyone from TV forecasters to Internet weather geeks to the NWS buying into the big Wednesday/Thursday (and maybe beyond) severe weather outbreak. The SPC is predicting this to hold together and has a day 4 (Friday) alert for the eastern portion of the US. Usually we are the last area of risk before storms die out.

It would seem unlikely we will miss the hail and wind threat from the storms. Much of the storms could be linear in fashion which is what Indiana sees a lot of with severe weather. Even with that forecast, discreet storms will be very possible and a few tornadoes likely as well.

Here are the 3 Day Outlooks...

Possible Rare Fall Severe Outbreak

All the (severe) weather forums and the NWS are buzzing about possible huge set up for severe weather across the plain states on Tuesday and Wednesday and the great lakes region late Wednesday and Thursday.

It will be an interesting next few days to see if the forecast materializes or busts like to many severe set ups like this.

The three day outlook due out in six hours will give us our first real peek at what the SPC is thinking...

Good News...

The weather sensor will be repaired tonight when I get home from work pending no weather issues crop up with rain/lightning. I have the batteries in hand that should keep it going even after dark.

UPDATE: The new batteries are in, it is dark, and the sensors are still sending data. Woo Hoo...

Weather Data Issue

The wireless solar powered sensor needs new batteries or possible a capacitor. It will be a few days before I can get to it to replace parts. Sorry the data is offline when there is no sunshine.

Weather Data Logging Error

The weather station is not working correctly and will need attention later. Sorry for the problem.

NOAA (NWS) Long Range Winter Forecast

As mentioned before, I promised to bring you some long range winter forecasts as they come out. This week the Climate Prediction Center division of the NWS issue their forecast.

The news for us is simple...

In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.

So I guess we well see some snow this season.

Reference: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html

Record Highs and an October First...

Sunday and Monday had record highs for the NWS in Indianapolis. Both days were over 90 and that also was the first time in weather recorded history there were two 90 degree days back to back in October.

The cool down is now in progress and the one half inch of rain overnight was a welcome surprise. Welcome to fall, finally.

Record Highs Possible

Date	Record High
October 6	88 set in 1946
October 7	87 set in 1916
October 8	89 set in 1939

You can see the old records. We are expected to break one or more over the next few days. I guess sunscreen is still suggested for the weekend. (Go Boilers!)

Weekend Weather

The earlier talk about a big weather event seems is gone for our area and is now more isolated to the upper plain states. Monday and Tuesday of next week will see some showers but nothing severe is forested at this time.

The temperatures will remain warm through the weekend.

Long Range Winter Forecast

Some of the long range forecasts for the upcoming winter weather are popping up on the Internet. As I find more interesting ones, I will bring them to your attention.

The first one is from Henry Margusity; AccuWeather.com's Sr. Meteorologist. You can read the entire forecast here but I will condense it for our area.

Most major snow storms will go north of Indiana as they move from Nebraska and Kansas to the upper New England States. Indiana will receive better chances for ice storms. Snowfall for our area will be below normal but precipitation will be above normal.

Temperatures will be normal and and expect 5 to 7 storms with 2" or more of snowfall (or significant ice).

There you have it. The first of many forecasts to come I am sure.

Upcoming Weekend Weather

The weather geeks and even the NWS are hinting about something big brewing. The best guess today is for Sunday in Indiana but it all is very hard to predict at this point. However a possible fall outbreak could be coming together this week so keep alert for weekend activities. (The Purdue v. Ohio State game might become interesting on Saturday night if the weather acts up. *Go Boilers*)