Precipitation This Weekend...

Well, I think some sleet will fall around the area on Saturday afternoon into overnight but the snow will be a bust. Rain will follow with amounts 1/2" expected. This soggy weekend will be a good one to stay inside.

Busted Forecast...

I am just going ahead and say the forecast for snow, good snow accumulations anyway, is gone. Unless there is a drastic reversal in the model trends, we will likely see some sleet and flurries but mainly rain from this storm. The cold shot just doesn't look to hang around like first thought.

The storm isn't a bust for everyone as a northern track will bring snow to the upper great lakes with some significant accumulation and ME,NH,VT will see a powerful punch to this storm too.

Snow or Rain or Freezing Rain?

That is the question everyone is asking today. Models still show some discrepancies and the runs themselves of the same model are waffling. I think the most disappointment currently are the I-95 east coast weather weenies thinking they were going to get an early December snow storm.

It looks now to be more Ohio Valley, Great Lakes focused. The question for us will be the temperatures. They seem to keep going up so rain seems to be the precipitation choice now in the Kokomo area. The storm also looks to start late Saturday night now rather than Sunday afternoon which was earlier shown.

I think it might take another 24 to 36 hours to get a good handle on everything so keep watching/reading and keep doing the snow dance. *grin*

Darn Forecast Models!

What a tough day to write in the blog. Usually I would have had a noon update with the weather pattern being active but time was limited and the forecast models were not were anyone expected them to be today.

Let's pause and talk briefly about the forecast models. There are many versions out there but the GFS and Euro are a couple of the more popular ones that do longer range forecasts. These are what most people are looking at when talking about a storm 7 or more days away. Twice each day at 00z and 12z or 7 AM and 7 PM Indiana time weather reading are taken around the world using all types of instruments including weather balloons which measure tens of thousands of feet in the air.

This data is then feed into the models and new forecasts are churned out three hours later. Usually around 10 AM or 10 PM people start analyzing the data and update forecasts. Then discussion takes place and forecasts are tweaked. It is acknowledged that models are not perfect so people will use their expertise to fine tune the forecasts.

So where does that leave us? Well I personally am not blessed with expertise forecasting the weather so I take several sources from amateur weather weenies to meteorologists to professional forecasters to the National Weather Service and come up with some basic predictions.

Back to the specifics of today and I can say after several consistent model runs forecasting snow, the models didn't bring the cold air in and a huge portion of yesterdays snow map was now rain or ice. Nobody seemed to believe it and all types of theories were tossed about. So that made me rethink what I was going to post.

In the end I will post the map from the NWS with Hazards Assessment for the upcoming storm. I will be like everyone else watching the new model run coming out in a few hours and will post what I know.

Flurries This Week/Real Snow Next

It looks like a few evenings could see some flurries overnight but the big storm should hit Sunday/Monday time frame. Several runs of the GFS model and other have consistent snow across our area with 4-8" falling. That could play havoc with the start of the work week.

Using Long Range Forecasts Correctly...

There are many models that are available to weather enthusiasts and professional forecasters to use. Some are short range and a few are long range going out 15+ days. The details in anything put past 5 days is suspect and anything out beyond 10 days is almost useless.

So while the details are useless the patterns are priceless. Those patterns show cold shots, warming trends, moisture flow, changes to the jet stream and many other things. So the tip is to get excited from the pattern but not in the details.

Cold Shot Coming

The Thanksgiving storm lacked one significant parameter which ultimately left the storm dropping rain and not snow. Cold. The reality is we need cold weather to set up and then wait for the moisture to come.

as some It looks like the cold shot is coming by the end of next week. The long range forecasts (or wishcastspeople call them) shows a great cold shot the week of December 3rd. Funny thing is a great shot of moisture also shows up too. Maybe the early significant snowfall will come soon enough.

Flurries

I was just out on a dog walk and can report very lite flurries are falling and the temperature is falling too with a small wind from the NW.

The snow is a bust for many people...

The cold just never seemed to be in the right spot where the best moisture was at except for the beginning of the storm. The early snowfall in Iowa on Wednesday afternoon really had people excited since that was exceeding the forecasted amounts. However things just never remain as strong or powerful as the storm tracked east/northeast into Canada.

Some of the Canadian weather (snow) lovers near the US border in Ontario were expecting 4 to 8 inches and maybe more but that fizzled for them to be off and on snow mixed with pellets as one described them.

There still will be some chances for some scattered flurries for our area today but overall I think we are done. Now lets focus our attention on the task at hand of eating the wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoying the company of friends and family. Happy Thanksgiving - Gobble, Gobble!

Where did the snow go?

The cold line didn't get here before the moisture left so we are ending the day at 1.58" of rain. There might be some snowflakes tomorrow but doubtful we will see any accumulation. The latest winter radar picture for our area.

Rain Falling

Over an inch has fallen at Kokomo-Weather and that makes for two things...

A soggy yard and an unhappy dog. :) Poor Spencer keeps wanting to go for a walk but it just keep raining and he doesn't like that either.

By the way, see the winter precipitation creeping into IL on the radar? It looks to be coming our way.

Radar Images

More rain changing over to sleet...

Some sleet could occur overnight before the change to snow/snow flurries. A new surface low has formed over Arkansas which might be a whammy for someone with this storm. It could kick up some of the unstable moist air from the southern states which are seeing a slight risk for severe weather.

About 1/2" of rain has fallen here with more on the way.

Rain Now, Snow Later

The rain is well underway and will continue all day with a change over to snow overnight. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day with an overnight low of 34. I think my last snow forecast map is still accurate for our area with Michigan possible receiving another inch or two than earlier thought.

The snow/rain line and accumulation totals are still changing as the storm takes shape. Any slight slow down with the moisture or any slight change in speed in the cold air could mean the difference between all rain/no snow or moderate amounts of accumulating snow.

More update during the day as things become more apparent.

Updated Thursday Forecast

Thursday Snow Line

Heatwave!

OK, maybe that is a slight exaggeration but we are still warming up with the steady SSW flow of air. The warm day started slow but continues to rise even tonight after sunset. An 8:30 PM temperature of 60.1 was recorded.

Everyone is still watching to see what if any will materialize with the snow for the holiday travel. There is still a lot of different ideas from the models but tomorrow will make people commit to snow or rain or a mix.

Jim's Thanksgiving Snow Track

My own forecast leads me to beleive the accumulating snow 2-4 inches with 4-6 inches around the lake will be in the blue area. The yellow area will see some mixed flurries with a trace sticking but mostly rain.

Thanksgiving Snow Possible

While it won't be snow storm of any great magnitude in the central portions of Indiana, there is a very good chance for a white Thanksgiving. Many forecasts have been on again and off again with snow/flurries possible throughout the holiday weekend, it seems more likely Wednesday evening through Friday morning would be the best timing for us.

The first part of the week will being much above normal temperatures with mid sixties to near 70 in the central area of the state. It would not surprise me to see a possible thunderstorm or two with the warm weather should the front get moving a little earlier than predicted.

Some of the long range models show better changes for snow/accumulating snow the following week. However the seasonal change has the weather models confused so there have been some wide range of forecasts with some wild swings from runs just 6 to 12 hours apart. At this point anything can happen if you ask me and I thing the better forecasts will be 72 hours or less.

Will this winter be a repeat of 05-06?

Take a look at the maps below for temperatures for the US from September 1 to today. They look very, very similar.

2007

2005

Mike Prangley's Winter Weather Forecast

Mike Prangley, head meterologist at Channel 18, has offered up his Winter Outlook for the 2007-2008 season a couple of days ago. In case you missed it, here it is for you to enjoy.

2008 Winter Forecast - Look for the 2008 Winter Forecast under the Featured Videos

Graphical Weather Page

I am tinkering with a new graphical weather page for the website. Feel free to look and leave comments...

http://www.kokomo-weather.com/GraphicalWeather.htm

Before next weeks snow...

It looks like we might get very near 70 on Wednesday. I guess we will take it.

Thanksgiving Week Snow...

More and more computer models and weather weenies seem to like the possibilities of snow hitting a large portion of the US with one or two storms over Thanksgiving week. All the models seem to agree on snow but where and exactly how much seems to still be undecided. Interesting is this map shows a 4 to 8 inch covering. hhhmmm....

Average Snowfall For Kokomo

For 1970 to current, the average is 43.3". The high year was the 81-82 winter where 106.8" of the white stuff came down.

This winter should bring above average precipitation according to many long range forecast models.

I am not making a prediction but I expect a good storm will blow through the area causing several days of disruption.

Winter Preparedness Week

It is Winter Preparedness Week. Visit the NWS for some information including safety tips.

This week looks to be rain for several days. That is good since we have been dry for 2 weeks. If we had a cold shot, we could have had a decent snow.

Snow Days (Jim's Prediction For Area Schools)

Ok, I just want to post my snow day predictions for county schools for the 07-08 school year. These days will be full days off from school and not the 2 hour delays. This prediction will run through March 31st.

Disclaimer: If you are a school administrator, you cannot hold me responsible for what I am about to say. I am just predicting the weather and not controlling it. (Well, I am building a machine in my backyard to do that but it won't be ready for a couple more months. *grin*)

So here we go...

Six Snow Days! I think one will be a big one of three or four days. (Fear not Kokomo-Center students, you will get at least half as many as the county schools.)

One last note to school administrators, why don't you go ahead and call it at night so the young ones can sleep in. They will love you for that decision. :)

Windy Through Tomorrow AM

It looks like a blustery forecast with wind and colder temps in store. Some counties north of us have wind advisories in effect.

Snow Less Likely Now...

It looks like the first snow threat has been taken away by the forecasters. But it still remains cold so who knows...

Snow....

Tuesday, Nov 13
High: 39 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Cold; cloudy in the morning with a flurry followed by periods of snow and rain in the afternoon

Tuesday Night, Nov 13
Low: 23 °F RealFeel®: 13 °F
Very cold with snow much of the time