Severe Weather For Friday

There is some quiet discussion from the area forecast offices and the SPC about severe weather in Indiana and other portions of the Midwest and Southern States. The current timing will starts the severe weather show after the 6 PM supper hour and through the overnight.

The moisture and temperatures should be ripe for a severe weather outbreak. Given some recent history where predicted outbreaks delivered less than advertised, some forecasters are being cautious with their comments. My only concern would be the Tennessee Valley taking the energy from the gulf and not allowing it to reach us.

Pea Sized Hail Reported...

I heard on the scanner some pea sized hail was reported in Cass County around 8 PM.

Slight Risk Lifted Over Indiana (& Kentucky)

I guess we were the reason the 16:30 outlook was delayed. As you can see, the slight risk which covered our area down through KY has been lifted. We remain in a general risk for some small hail but nothing significant should be on tap for today. Thursday looks to be the next possible threat.

Slight Risk Today For Severe Weather

An upper level trough of cold air is setting the stage for possible isolated thundershowers this afternoon across central and southern Indiana into Kentucky. Hail and wind be the main threats today.

I have been holding this post for 45 minutes waiting on the SPC update at 12:30 but they are still working on it. I don't see anything for a new concern in our area so some other portion of the country must be having significant changes. I will update when they post in a bit...

Severe Weather Approaching

The cold front is pushing across Illinois bring with it a squall line of thunderstorms. Storms should arrive after 10 tonight and push across the state before 3 AM.

Servere Weather for Friday

It defiantly looks like the chances for severe weather on Friday evening and the overnight are increasing. We are under a slight risk already and the hatched box over the Illinois and Wisconsin borders looks somewhat interesting. More to come after the late morning forecast model runs and the noon day 2 update from the SPC.

Almost 80 today, Thunderstorms Possible Thursday and Friday

First a warm welcome to any new readers that found the website after a good write up in the local paper. It has been a slow week with relatively calm weather so the blog has not been very active.

As for upcoming weather, the temperature made it to 79.6 locally. The warm up seems to be in high gear after the extended winter. If you have not noticed, we have been virtually rain free since the 10th when almost an inch fell over the area.

Some thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Friday night. The simulated radar shows a squall line crossing Indiana after 9 PM on Friday. Squall lines normally are ahead of a cold front and this one is no different. Damaging winds and hail are possible and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Nice Weather...

The nice weather or occasional shower has not made interesting topics for the weather blog. Actually that is great as I think we can all say we just want some nice sunny weather. Today I did see a number of farmers in the fields working the soil and planting. I am sure they are anxious to get going.

The are some chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the week but nothing looks severe. The temperature will remain pleasant too.

Earthquake Hits Central Indiana

Yes, a quake was felt this morning all across central Indiana. it lasted about 20 to 30 seconds according to what I can figure out. (It woke both my wife and myself plus the dog.)

It looks like West Salem, IL was the center and is rated at a 5.4.

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/shake/cus/

182 Days

It took 182 days between seventy degree days. The last time we saw 70 was October 18th and finally today we broke the 70 degree barrier. I sure hope spring is here to last.

Great Week Ahead

The weather looks great for the week ahead. After a quick cursory look of the forecast models, I don't see any possible precipitation until Friday and that looks marginal. No real threat for rain show up until the end of next week! (It is going to make for a boring week to blog about the weather.)

Just Clouds...

The clouds are a little rowdy too see but nothing is likely to happen for us tonight. There is a tornado watch to our northwest into Ohio and Michigan. Some additional storms are active in eastern Kentucky and Tennessee down to the Gulf of Mexico.

Windy Then Turning Cooler...

it looks like everyone dodges the severe outbreak bullet. Some slight risk remains to our east for today. The cold front will push through over the afternoon ushering in a weekend of throwback temperatures and precipitation. The push will bring some gusty conditions this afternoon with winds 25 to 40 MPH.

Cold and Snow Flurries are on tap with some rain as well. It will be ugly but the good news is things look warm and sunning next week. Also the severe weather system has taken most of the unstable moisture with it and it will take much of next week to reload so look for a quieter weather pattern overall for a while.

Cold Core Tornado In Iowa Today

Storms Moving In...

It looks like storms are lined up to the Illinois line. No watches or warnings are active but a few hail signatures have been showing up. Storms have been active in Iowa, Missouri, and western Illinois but have been moving into a more stable environment and have lost their punch by central Illinois.

A second line is now in Iowa which should be here after 2 AM. Some increase in severe potential is possible over Indiana but not clear if it will allow the storms to remain severe.

The day over has been a bust since many people expected an outbreak but over a dozen reported tornadoes before.

Holding Pattern

It looks like a lot of wait and see across the areas forecast to see severe weather today. Some spotty wind damage has been reported. Things do look to be coming together south of the Ohio River but we have been overcast and not really warming up substantially for things to really kick into a major outbreak.

There still is some possible severe weather after 6 PM locally but mother nature is not showing her hand yet on things so we will have to wait and see...

First Look At Thursday By The SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their first Day 1 maps for Thursday. It looks like some of the truly scary potential for severe weather is not quite coming together. At this point one might say the "Historic Outbreak" many were forecasting might have been averted. Of course it is difficult to say with 100% certainty that we are out of the woods.

For us in Kokomo, the potential for damaging winds remains high. Likely squall line thunderstorms in the overnight will bring with it strong winds. Potential remains for an isolated tornado of course.

Tomorrow will require a lot of monitoring and nowcasting. Hopefully things will settle down before reaching Indiana. (Hey, did you see some TV forecasts mentioning snow flurries next week? Sounds crazy to even be thinking snow about now.)

7 AM Edit: It looks like the storm system continued to increase intensity overnight. Tornado watch boxes now all the way up into southern Illinois, the bootheel of Mossuiri, and western Tennesse and Kentucky. Click here to see a nice overnight derecho. Scary stuff...

This is why you need a weather radio...

Here it is at 2 AM and I cannot sleep so I decided to peek at my computer and see what the weather is doing. At 2 AM there are three tornado watches and one thunderstorm watch box. Some extend all the way thru 6 AM.

As of this moment, we have three tornado warnings and eight severe thunderstorm warnings in effect. Storm reports continue to trickle in with damaging winds in excess of 80 MPH overturning cars and uprooting trees. No tornado reports in the last couple of hours but...

Remember the storm system that passed over Illinois, Indiana, and lower Michigan on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning? Seemingly an innocent line of storms? A confirmed F1 tornado tracked 3.8 miles near Plainwell, Michigan at 1:39 AM. Most sensible people are sleeping at that time. What would/could save your life? A weather radio!

Severe Weather & Flooding

The heavy rain potential is making more headlines from the National Weather Service Offices in Indianapolis and North Webster. Rain totaling 1 to 3 inches seems likely in a very short period of time over the area. With rivers and streams already near flood stages in many locations due to recent rain events over the past month, it will not take a significant amount of precipitation to being levels back up above flood stage.

Severe weather is possible but our potential is not as favorable as locations to our south and west. Our critical times looks to be after dark through the Friday morning. Again I wish to mention that overnight storms are some of the most deadly as people are sleeping and not aware of watches or warnings.

Things are rather active tonight in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. That system is what will move our way tomorrow and into Ohio Friday morning.

Keep tuned to local radio and TV tomorrow plus check back here for updates when possible. I unfortunately have some projects at work tomorrow that will not keep me as available to watch the weather as I would like.

As always, keep your weather radio handy too.

[NWS] FLOOD WATCH

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FRONT THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

This includes Kokomo and Howard County.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EMINENT ACROSS US

An outbreak of severe weather over the next three days is an almost certainty for much of the central US. This includes Indiana! A moderate risk was issued at Day 3 for Thursday. There have been only 6 previous moderate risk outlooks issued for Day 3 and all of those days verified with severe weather including tornadoes. The most recent was October 18, 2007 where 67 tornadoes were reported.

The current set up has seen a lot of comparisons to the 1974 Super Outbreak. If you compare the analogs maps of one to the other, it is not hard to see why those comparisons are being made. However, severe weather/tornadoes can be influenced by a wide variety of parameters and while comparisons can be made to past events, it of course does not dictate how this event will play out.

With that out of the way, one can and should expect a mulit-state event featuring tornadoes over 2 or 3 days. Indiana would likely see some chances for severe weather Thursday afternoon with much greater chances Thursday evening through the overnight hours into Friday morning. It has been seen with several recent events that severe weather has been continuing through the darkness into the following morning.

This makes it obvious that everyone needs to have a weather alert radio to keep themselves and their families save. If you do not have a weather radio today, make an effort to go pick one up somewhere. If you do, make sure it is plugged in, has a fresh battery, and is receiving signal.

Later today I will outline this event in greater detail.

Thunderstorm Update

The line of thunderstorms is crossing into western Indiana. The intensity has diminished overall with the system. No watches or warnings have been issued with this squall line. Right now it looks like the heavier structure will go to our north. Everything will be moved out by morning allowing for another sunny day.

Storms On Radar For The Overnight

It took a while and is a good 6 to 8 hours slower than I expected but the storms are finally happening. Besides the larger storm events in Texas and Oklahoma, Illinois and Indiana are primed and ready.

A squall line has formed across Illinois and should be able to sustain its energy or slowly intensify as it moves into more unstable air which is over eastern Illinois and most of Indiana. The SPC did extend the slight risk area on the last update in include most of Indiana including Kokomo.

Look for storms to be over our area around midnight. This squall line has the potential for 1/2" hail. A possible watch box might be issued in the next hour.

Tuesday Chase Cancelled - Storms Locally Tonight

I definitely made the right decision to cancel the chase into central Illinois today. Central Illinois was selected as the chase location for a couple of reasons. It did appear the the lower 1/3 of Illinois would see clouds for most of the day and that would restrict heating. The middle 1/3 looked to be clear allowing sunshine to create heat and better instability. The only variable would be moisture and I was banking on enough of it combined with the sun to get things fired up by 3 PM.

Fast forward to this morning and the clouds covered the chase area and even extended over into Indiana. Precipitation in the form of rain has moved in to Illinois over the morning keeping temperatures down. The dewpoints also have not risen to an acceptable level. It looks like nothing everyone expected yesterday will come to fruition today.

We will still see a fast moving squall line set up hit the west edge of Indiana sometime around 8 PM and clear the state a few hours after midnight. Some strong winds and hail look to be the real threat with a possible tornado.

Stay tuned for a later update and some information about an uncoming outbreak for Thursday and Friday.

Chase Update

It looks like I will be holding back from chasing in Illinois today. Things do not look as favorable this morning so I am going to stay around home and make a noon time decision on any chase plans.

Tuesday Severe Weather Update (& Chase)

Severe weather should be over our area in the evening and overnight. As usual you can expect more of a squall line type of scenario. I will give a better update tomorrow around noon.

Also I will be out tomorrow doing a chase in Illinois. I anticipate better chances tomorrow for tornadoes and will be start in Normal around 1 PM.

Severe Weather Tuesday

This update will focus on the potential for severe weather Tuesday across our area. A slight risk covers a portion of the western area of Indiana and to the south. This includes a large portion of Illinois.

Storms should move into Indiana late afternoon into the evening and cross the state during the overnight. Storms will likely be ahead of a weak cold front and most will be linear in nature. Some isolated cells could proceed the squall line.

Hail and wind in addition to lightning look to the the predominant threat with tornadoes always possible. Severe weather will be very dependent on dew points and clear skies across Illinois allowing afternoon heating providing enough energy to get storms going before they run into cooler evening weather in Indiana.

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday & Thursday

Several waves of severe weather will make their way across the US this week. Those waves look to cross our area on Tuesday and Thursday even though a small potential exists other days as well. It will be a week of watching the SPC forecasts and models and seeing how predictions verify.

Where are we?

I know many times people read a forecast and and hear generic geographic terms used and are never quite sure where they are. For us, we are right on the boundary between Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes.

Great Weather for the Weekend

The rain is moving out was wasn't a soaker here like in the south. The weekend is shaping up with 60 degree temperatures and sunshine for both days. Enjoy them as Monday looks to flip back on the rain switch.

The active severe weather pattern looks to make it up our way by the middle of next week.

To all of the spring break people heading south, watch out for severe weather as it will continue through the weekend across large portions of the Dixie and plain states.

Cold Front Pushing Through

A cold front will push across the state this morning allowing a high pressure to move in and clear out the rain by noon. Look for a cooler and drier afternoon and tomorrow with highs near 50. Tonight the clear skies bring rapid cooling to the upper 20's. Rain moves back in for Thursday and Friday.