Thanks to the NWS in Indianapolis

Just a short note of thank you to the Indianapolis office of the National Weather Service. I was critical of their AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) yesterday with its weak information and lack of an update. Today they have done an excellent job with the AFD and the detail. Thanks again.

Snow by Morning with Wind!

Some additional snow will fall overnight and should still be falling for the morning travel. (Expect chaos on the roads.) Conditions will also be hampered with wind causing blowing snow and limited visibility. Given the information above, I am very, very confident there will be a 2 hour delay for area schools.

Power On - Fog Setting In

The power is on and I have everything at work and home back online. I did see the fog rolling in making for low visibility while I was out. Drivers need to remember to turn on their headlights.

Power Outage

There are 4700 customer in Howard County without power.

See here - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana-business/outages/current.asp

The Good News & The Bad...

The good news is we did pretty good all things considered. More good news is the cloud deck seems to still be in place even with the precipitation stopping so I don't think the sun will pop out to melt our snow. The bad news is temperatures are rising and will likely be in the middle 30's later and some melting could happen.

The even worse news is the old northwest trend which was in full effect from last winter is back. This storm started has went northwest on the models all week long and is still tracking northwest even today. This will not make for either easy winter forecasting and will likely disappoint many all winter long.

Three Inches

I measured 3 inches in several spots around the yard. I must admit I had doubts given the continued track forecast to move northwest of our area. Now the dry slot is moving in and warmer temps could cause some melting before a second wave come in later today.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH INDIANA IS
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WET
SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET IS CREATING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

NWS Indianapolis

The NWS in Indianapolis is the last office to make any changes to the forecast. There is a Winter Weather Advisory to our north and west. If you wanted to fill in the gaps, then the NWS in Indianapolis needs to issue an advisory northwest of a line from Kokomo to Terra Haute.

A Near Miss...

It appears this storm will be cranking up but it is going be north and west of our location. I wouldn't be surprised to see some places over 8 inches. A slight shift to the east would be sweet but I guess we just take our 1-3 inches and enjoy it.

Nothing New...

Not anything new to report with the forecast. The 1-3 inch snow total still holds. Temperatures are right at freezing so there could be some mixing early on. Overall the NWS is being pretty quiet with storm hype. Given the number of busts last season, it doesn't surprise me.

Is there a snow day in our near future?

Oh, I don't know about a full snow day but I feel pretty good about a 2 hour delay for Monday morning. I have been away today without Internet access (bad story about that) so I am catching up quickly. I

t seems there still is not a consensus with the models on where the final storm track will happen. That leaves some uncertainly on the final snow amounts. There also is a large and dreaded dry slot to contend with if it moves up from the southeast area of the state.

I will remain with my 1-3" call for now and leave you with a special weather statement from the NWS in northern Indiana.

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DICTATE THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. SINCE IT IS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANYONE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM.THIS STATEMENT IS AN OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF AS IGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. AS INFORMATION AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED. YOU SHOULD BEGIN THINKING ABOUT PREPARATIONS NOW...WELL BEFORE THE EVENT IS SET TO BEGIN. TAKE TIME TO ORGANIZE A PLAN OF ACTION AND CREATE A PREPAREDNESS KIT WITH SUPPLIES SO YOU ARE NOT CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

More Snow Talk

The NWS in Northern Indiana has the first snow graphic out. Again I remain confident in my 1-3" prediction but will likely make updates later today or tomorrow.

Snow Still Forecasted

The model runs this evening have the snow on a track for our area. Still some details to be worked out but now with the system on shore getting better sampling, the models should come into better agreement. For now I feel very confident in my 1-3 inch forecast.

Snow Update (for Sunday & Monday)

It looks like the possibility for accumulating snow is about at good as can be forecast with models in varying disagreement on the final storm track. Still, I won't hesitate to say there will be some snow for us by the end of the day Monday. A conservative guess would be 1-3 inches. Some models show more but I don't think anything will be nailed down until Saturday morning.

Snow Solutions...

If you look at the previous 4 model runs of the GFS, you can see snow seems very likely. Snow totals show 3 to 10" depending on the run.

OK, We need to talk...

The end of the weekend to the start or next week looks like a potentially good snow storm. Yes, I said snow storm. There has been some discussion brewing for more than a week and now the GFS is showing the solution. Well, we hope it is the solution but the last two runs today have it.

Now we do need to pin down the final track and that won't probably happen until tomorrow evening but people in IL, IN, and OH need to be alert. Snow totals could range from 2 to 6 inches with a few isolated areas receiving even more.

I will write a bit more later and show some maps.

Patterns...

There has been a lot of model watching looking for our first snow. We have had several show up 7-10 days out only to disappear and never materialize. That is somewhat disappointing but then again, we have not even had Thanksgiving yet and real winter hasn't even started.

The good in all of this if the favorable pattern which has been forecast and is coming to fruition. At some point this cold pattern with a -NAO has to produce some good snows and not the lake effect trickle of flurries we have been seeing.

I do think there will be on kick butt snow storm by Christmas. My only hope is it comes across the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes and not just for the New England or Middle Atlantic area.

[UPDATE] Latest Forecast Models

The NAM has remain showing rain but the GFS has flipped back to light snow flurries. Either one could be true given the timing of the cold front and moisture will be so close. Unlikely there will be an school delays with this system.

Cold and Snowless For Kokomo

It is cold and will remain cold for quite some time ahead. Temperatures are well below normal and it feels cold. The even worse news is the NAO is going negative which usually is a very good indicator for a storm.

Tonight through Monday should see a rain with some possible mixing. Cold surfaces could freeze making driving or walking a bit tricky for Monday. I did see yesterday the highways were pretreated with the liquid salt mixture in anticipation of the rain/snow/mix.

Snow Sunday Night & Monday

It appears there will be some snow Sunday night into Monday. The accumulations will be on the low side with 1 inch likely over the area. The temperatures are borderline and both the NAM and GFS model show a rain snow mix. Nothing looks to be significant at this time for our area.

9 PM Radar

The snow is coming nicely off the lake but a bit too much to the southeast to get us any. I do expect a small west shift as we progress through the evening. (Click on image to view animation.)

Snow Tonight (Bring it on!)

The models are forecasting some decent lake effect bands making their way down her in the overnight. Some models are thinking 3+ inches but an inch with some scatter amounts of 2 inches across norther Howard county seems more likely.

Either way it will likely make a mess of tomorrow mornings commute. I suggest an early start and sensible driving. The first slick morning of the season usually ends up as a painful reminder to so many drivers.

More Long Range Dreaming For Early December

The closed low on the 500mb chart and lake cutter on the surface chart. Potentially a snow lovers delight.

Of course more model mayhem but it does show there are plenty of solutions for an early December storm somewhere on the eastern portions of the US.

Looking Long Range

There has been a lot of discussion about a significant storm just after the start of December. It has been pretty regular on the long range models. We could get a nice dump of 3 to 6 inches in our area from the system below. The negative tilt to the trough is nice to see but a bit late for us. I do think the GFS is under doing the cold and has a too warm for the start of the systems passage. if so, we could even see more snow. Just a fantasy storm for now but snow believers can always dream. *smile*

COLD!

The models are still all over the road with possible storms but there is good agreement to the cold weather. Another cold shot will come down from northern Canada tomorrow bringing lows into the teens on Thursday night. Some light associated flurries will be possible from extended lake effect snow in our area.

The weekend also looks to remain cold with some showers Sunday into Monday. There is some storminess showing up Tuesday/Wednesday of next week which could include some severe weather across area.

Tease...

Still teasing us with some flurries but no real accumulation. Those further north will see some real lake effect snow with accumulations from 5 to 12+ inches.

Around one inch possible....

Forecast Models Look Interesting

There has been a lot of flip flops between each run but there looks to be some potential for a good snow in somebodies future by Thanksgiving. I guess it is time to really look a little harder at the model runs and find the pattern.

No, you were not seeing things...

There was snow flurries this afternoon. I ran into them on the just north of Howard county on US 31. I also heard a report of freezing rain south of Kokomo. A great shot of cold looks to be coming our way in a few weeks and could last through Christmas.

One energy forecaster which was one of the few who went warm with December has now done a reversal and is going cold. In fact significantly cold with a -3 TO -7 below normal. (Sweet.)

2008-2009 Winter Outlook/Snow Day Prediction

Kokomo-Weather's 2008-2009 Winter Outlook

Many have asked and here it is, the official 2008-2009 Winter Outlook from Kokomo-Weather. Before we get into the meat of the outlook and to the all important snow day prediction for area schools, let me talk about how this forecast came to be, offer some personal commentary, and to review some of last winter.

For many years, I gave into the peer pressure of adulthood and looked to each forecast of snow with despise and dread. That said I knew there was something inside of me that still loved the snow with its splendor and beauty. A couple of years ago, I found out I was not alone with those feelings and decided to allow the snow lover in me come out for all to see. I now look forward to forecasts of snow.

If you have thought as an adult you must despise snow, allow me to set you free. Enjoy each and every snow as if it were your first. Don't curse the slow drive into work but enjoy the extra time you have to enjoy the pristine white landscape. Do it! You will feel better.

I guess I should let you know how this forecast came about. You should know up front I am not trained as a meteorologist or any physical science which might be helpful. I am still a budding amateur with novice skills. While I can do moderately well with understanding short term forecasting, the mysteries of long term forecasting are just that, a mystery.

Even weather professionals politely and sometimes not so politely disagree on how to come up with seasonal outlooks knowing that this isn't an exact science. However the base theory is pretty simple. Find a variety of factors you deem important and look for previous years which were similar and then see what the weather did following. The bad part is weather data collection is still fairly new. Records before 1895 are not comprehensive enough to be useful. Better recorded data started around 1950 and some believe the years of 1970 and beyond are all that can be reliably used to model seasonal data. Remember we need to use data from around the globe and some areas where not technologically advanced to collect and record data until the last half century or so.

What I have done for my forecast is create a composite forecast for north central Indiana from dozens and dozens of other winter outlooks. The forecasters who I selected vary in backgrounds from advanced amateur to national weather service government forecasts to professional meteorologists from energy and agricultural fields. I weeded out forecasts that where just wishcasting for their backyard or ones which had no (sound) reasoning behind them. I think overall I ended up with a good mix but a definite pattern to the winter outlook.

I also did some of my own checking and limited forecasting using some of the information available. However before I present my composite below, lets take a final look at last winter.

The winter of 2007-2008 was one if heartbreak for many in central Indiana. Before I took a more active interest in following winter weather, I never realized how localized snow is to a particular area. For example central Indiana might receive an overnight snow but there can be huge swings in the totals between two locations less than an hour apart by car.

One of the nicest snows of the season came on Saturday December 15th with 4 to 5 inches locally. It sneaked up on us with the final track not revealing itself until the late evening model runs on Thursday. The storm track ended up several hundred miles northwest of originally forecast. In face this storm showed us something we saw all winter long, the northwest trend.

The northwest trend caused much frustration with forecasters and snow lovers alike. About the only thing you can say for sure about the northwest trend is it gave an area of Wisconsin including Madison and Milwaukee more than 100 inches of snow.

We busted on numerous snows including the New Years Day snow and the infamous February 1st bust which was most embarrassing and frustrating to everyone. Everyone had predicted a huge storm which should have crippled the entire region. There had been no northwestern trend with the forecast models and many believed the trend was broken.

Not! The storms low pressure tracked a good 100 to 150 miles northwest. That combined with a dryslot which hovered over Howard County made our predictions of 8-12 inches bust horribly. Just 1 to 2 inches ultimately fell before the storm ended.

A surprise clipper system dropped 4 to 5 inches on the 20th. In reality it should not have been a surprise but confidence levels were pretty low with the forecast models I think most people discounted the system.

There were a few rounds of severe weather thrown in besides the snow to keep everything interesting.

In the end, I busted on the number of snow days Howard County area schools predicting 6 and receiving only 3. However there were two storms which if they didn't hit on a weekend or break would have made my prediction perfect.

So with that said, let's get on with the forecast...

Official Winter Outlook for Howard County, Indiana

Most forecasts consulted speak of a “bookend winter” where we have cold followed by warmth finished by cold again.

Spring will get a late start with cooler than average temperature hanging on through March and April.

Temperature Averages and Forecast (for Kokomo)

December:
Max: 35.8
Min: 21.8
Mean: 28.5

Forecast : Below Average

January:
Max: 30.5
Min: 15
Mean: 22.8

Forecast : Average to Above Average

February:
Max: 35.5
Min: 18.8
Mean: 27

Forecast : Below Average

While there will be a warming in January possibly lasting into the first of February, that doesn't mean we cannot see snow during the warm. Also I believe we will get the snow going possibly as early as Thanksgiving.

Snowfall Averages and Forecast (for Kokomo)

November thru March: 43.10 inches

Forecast: Above Average 50 to 60 inches

Summary: Look for a cold start and finish to winter with a late spring with several weeks of a warm pattern in the middle. There will be several significant snows with December and February looking like the snowiest months.

Neither overall snowfall or overall temperatures will be record breaking.

Something to consider is the early November warmth of last week. We had 6 days of 70 degree temperatures. While no daily record was set, there have been just a few years which had such a warm start to November. They include the notable winters of 71-72, 77-78, and 78-79.

>>>Snow Day Prediction (for Howard County Area Schools): 4 snow days by March 15, 2009.

Credits/Reference:

John Ruggiano
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Allen Hoffman
Wes, Chuck, HM, Brandon, and many more.