Hope For Snow Lovers...

Without going into detail, we are starting to see a west trend to the storm. While this won't build to superstorm potential, we could get some snow. Not unthinkable at this point for accumulating snow to be very possible. While not the monster storm we had hoped, not bad given we were expecting a complete miss just 12 hours ago.

No Mid Day Miracle...

So we will remain quiet for a while and waste the cold. The poor east cost snow lovers have seen their storm come and go. The latest trends do show it trending weaker and out to sea. You can see the difference between the run six hours ago (6z) and the run just completed (12z).

East Coast Track

The big snow storm looks to track up the east coast. The I-95 cities from Washington, DC/Baltimore to Philly, New York, and Boston are not trying to sort out the details between a great storm, rain, or a near miss. I hope they get to enjoy it and are not missed.

For us, we will have to deal with continued cold temperatures some moderate winds causing blowing and drifting. No warm up looks to be in our future. Also the forecast models show a relatively quiet pattern for us now that the upcoming storm threat is a far wide right miss.

We do have a few chances for light precipitation and given some of the poor road conditions, it should make for slick conditions. The winds also looks to remain on the moderate to strong side which will continue to drift over roads.

Looking Bleak...

It isn't looking good for us who want to get a storm. Unless there is a miracle with tomorrow's mid day run, we can count on no big superstorm.

No Storm...

Well, everyone seems pretty confident that the big storm won't be coming our way anytime soon. I have not had a chance to give anything a careful review so I won't completely abandon ship but I think the ship might be taking on water.

I will officially call it dead after the middle of the day runs tomorrow.

Mid Day Update

The storm still looks very good but clearly is way, way, way east of us to really do anything. Some of the weather fans in the Ohio Valley & Upper Great Lakes are jumping off the storm and giving up.

Just a reminder that 90 hours before the first phase of this weeks storm, the models had the whole thing going from the Southwest to the Middle Atlantic and right out to sea. Data is not very well sampled way out in a Pacific so models likely still don't have a handle on it.

Patience will be key waiting for the models to come into agreement.

Possible Storm Update...

The first model, the NAM, has completed its run. It is short range only going to 84 hours which is 7 AM Monday morning. It shows a nice move west for the storm and would clearly hit Indiana with several inches of snow across our area.

Edit to Add at 11:30: I didn't think I needed another blog entry for the GFS model run. It seems there are some hideous discrepancies in the run. The upper air charts and the surface charts don't even match up with any meteorology logic. That happens sometimes when the models has so much data/energy it just spits out garbage. No point in staying up later for the finish or more refined data.

Some light snow accumulations possible after 4 AM with the passing with the cold front.

FYI - Confidence very high in a 2 hour delay for area schools for Friday.

Good Morning...

The single digit temperatures bottomed out just before midnight and continues to rise. Today will warm up into the twenties but return to colder temperatures for the overnights and Friday.

Snow talk still abounds with the Monday-Tuesday storm. Nothing decided yet on the track...

Also, I mentioned last night the sleepless nights that precede snow for those watch for snow. The numerous statewide school delays and closings reminded me to give a tip of the hat to school administrators who get up early to drive routes and make the all critical call. They are backed up by school personnel which clear parking lots and sidewalks. Another early and thankless task making for a lack of sleep after the storm arrives.

More Sleepless Nights...

That's what happens when there is a snow storm brewing. Model runs and secondary maps and data start to come in around 10 PM and don't really finish until 1 AM. (This pattern repeats at 10 AM to 1 PM.)

I guess this weeks storm had everyone attention and there had not been much discussion or looking at forecast models for next week. Now that things have generally calmed down, everyone is talking about the huge potential for next week. I don't mean some casual chatter but some serious review and comparisons to other historic events. In fact this past storm could play a significant factor in amplifying the upcoming storm.

Currently, we are not in the primary path. However we also were not in the primary path for this storm a week ago. The thinking of those in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes right now is that not being in the bullseye this far out is a good thing. We will let this beast of a storm come to us. Hopefully it will come far enough to be historic for us.

Night all and enjoy what should be a two hour delay for county schools on Thursday.

Overnight Cold / Next Weeks Snow Storm

I guess I was so focused on the snow I missed the downward spiral of temperatures for tonight. An overnight low near zero plus 10 MPH winds will make for a bitter cold windchill. I think this combined with poor road conditions will generate a two hour delay for area schools.

As for the storm next week, the NWS office in Indianapolis made this comment about it in the afternoon AFD (Area Forecast Discussion)...

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A BIG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WHAT IS IN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS BASICALLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT INDIANA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. BUT THE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SO IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER IF THIS LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INSTEAD IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

The NWS Office in northern Indiana had this to say in their AFD...

AS SUGGESTED BY HPC THIS MORNING...THIS EVOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN. RIGHT NOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD STILL MISS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TO THE EAST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SHSN LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL RECENT TRENDS AND THE PROPENSITY THIS SEASON FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN STORM TRACK WITH TIME...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

7.5 Inches...

I measured a couple of spots and have 7.5 inches for the storm total. Overall pretty good but I admit a small amount of jealousy when looking at Indianapolis. They finished with 12.5 inches.

So enjoy this and lets look for the next snow storm which could be as early as next week. About 120 hours out there is some potential for another snowfall. Yes, it won't be a juicy as this but still a snow day maker. The winds do look much better too. (The "Big Daddy" talk for the east cost is already happening for the new storm. While it currently doesn't look at powerful when it passes over here, it should be nice and get me my fourth snow day.)

Good Morning Snow Lovers...

Looks like a snow day for the school kids! Congrats! It looks like snow will last through late morning before ending. No measurement taken but we did make the 4 inches and then some.

Night All...

I am leaving the night to the snow and public safety workers out tonight. (A reminder you can listen to the area police and fire runs online at ScanKokomo.) My call of 4 inches is solid and should bust low by noon tomorrow. Already 2 inches measured at my home.

Also, I am quite confident of 2 hour delays for tomorrow and think a snow day for area schools is also very likely.

BIG STORM

You can get an idea how large this system is by looking at the Winter Warnings & Advisories and the radar image. It is disastrous for those receiving ice. There will be a lot of devastation from the ice taking weeks and months and maybe years in some cases to recover.



Also, I have been playing with a new page to display local weather station readings. The problem has been some stations are not always uploading current data. Version 2 of the script now parses any reading more than one hour old.

Check out the new page here - http://kokomo-weather.com/WU_HC2.php

Latest Snow Map

The GFS is unreal with the snow totals now. I'd settle for half.

Also, if you happen to check radar, the Paducah, Kentucky NWS office is offline due to the ice storm. There will be a hole in radar coverage which might look like a hole in the precipitation but isn't.

NWS Winter Storm Blog

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=21431&source=0

Look Out - SNOW!

Ok, so the first wave did go south and we missed out. But wave two is right on track for us. I like my 4" call and if I was bold, I would even push it up a fuzz. The latest runs of the GFS shows nearly 9 inches and the NAM is over 6 inches. I say bring it on.

Snow Still On Tap...

It looks like the system will come in a bit slower which will allow it to come north and bring us our snow. Plan on snow coming in after lunch and lasting into Wednesday morning. I think the 4" call will be good. (Sorry to anyone who thought I was going to bust!)

It's Going South...

I think I might have to deal with a significant storm going south of our area. *nuts*

I still think 4 inches is doable but it is going to take bits and pieces from now until Wednesday to get there. At least we are not going to see a big ice storm like to many places.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A COUPLE OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT.& A SECOND ONE WILL BRING MORE SNOW TUES AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SO. IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE REFINED AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Snow Call

It is a busy day so I doubt there will be a lunch time post but I am very confident in my call for 4 inches. I did see the NWS move the watch area up to I-70 but didn't come north with any advisory. I guess they still are not buying into the northern track.

Snow Amounts...

The decision on whether or now we see significant snow of still up for discussion. The forecasting professionals seem to be holding on to the earlier southern track of the storm. The models have been trending north all day.

I will throw out a first call of 4 inches for this storm. (I would think it wouldn't be a stretch given the light precipitation which moved through today and leaving us with an inch of snow.)

Another GFS Snow Map...

You have to give some credence to the GFS with 3 relatively consistent runs. The 0z runs tonight should give us enough of a consensus to bring the Winter Storm Watch further north.

From the NWS...

...SNOW TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON TO GREENSBURG LINE.

THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH IT. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

A Second Snow Map...

So the 12z run of the GFS shows similar to the previous 06z run. I would guess the NWS in Indianapolis would wait for some guidance and the update from the HPC.

White Outside...

It is snowing nicely outside. Before this ends mid afternoon, I think we will be at an inch or slightly above.

A good snow maker looks likely for Tuesday. I would anticipate the NWS issuing a Winter Weather Advisory later today with a Winter Storm Watch for Indianapolis and areas south.

Snow Map

The 06z GFS is one to drool over...

Winter Weather...

There was finally some model consensus yesterday between most of them. It was almost apparent on Friday. This system looks to be the big hit south of us with snow and frozen precipitation. However we still could see several inches of snow Monday night through Tuesday. Of course a shift north could put us in the thick of it. However with a large area of high pressure overhead, that seems not likely.

Back Online...

The battery in the outdoor weather station was replaced this afternoon. We are back online.

SNOW...

After a couple of cold days this weekend and a single digit low Saturday night, we should see some snow come Sunday night into Monday morning. The GFS has been pretty consistent with this for some time so I have a moderate confidence level for this event.

The bad news is this will just be 1 or maybe 2 inches.

The middle of the week is a different story. No real consensus on the precipitation from the models but they are not swinging as wildly as earlier this past week. The huge monsters we have been seeing are gone for the Midwest so now we wait and see who might get a more modest snow dump from the system.

The NWS on next week's storm...

I guess I can take some comfort that after a week of model runs they remain as uncertain as me. Here is the latest HWO (Hazardous Weather Outlook).

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

More Uncertainty

Nothing seems very certain for next week other than we will have some kind of weather. *grin* No model agreement and no agreement of any single model from run to run. The good news for me is I do this as a hobby and have no pressure to produce a forecast. The bad news is some people do have to produce forecasts and they are frustrated with no real clear picture.

I do think we won't be as dry as a few of the GFS runs have shown. The question becomes in what form will the moisture fall? Again we seem to be on a rain/snow line and a couple of dozen miles could make a world of difference. I really did think there would be some clear pattern to the weather by this time but I guess the end of the week will come and we won't know anymore than when we started.

On another topic, the warm temperatures did cause some melting today but my roof is still snow covered. I won't be able to change out the weather station battery anytime soon.

Finally, I managed to join Facebook and create a Kokomo-Weather group. Please join!

Lake Michigan

This is a great image of Lake Michigan. You can sort of see how the long fetch of the lake will generate lake effect snow.

Still Waiting

No answer on what is going to happen. Models still are showing various solutions. The latest GFS run is very dry through 2/7. Some light icing events more reminiscent of December look more probable.

The Storm..

It is on again, off again, early next week, late next week, who knows. I do feel we are going to see some snow sometime next week. Now the map below is pure fantasy if it verified for the end of next week. You could expect heavy snow on the order of 18+ inches. Would that not be sweet? Well, the early part would be ice which would be bad and some severe weather would likely be south so it would not be all sweet.

Another Mention...

The Indianapolis NWS office had this to say overnight...

FOR THE STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IT LOOKS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT. THE GFS NOW IS NOT SHOWING MUCH AT ALL AND 12Z ECMWF WAS STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM IMPACTING INDIANA. HPC NOTED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME AND SO HAVE OPTED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW SINCE THE OUTCOME IS STILL VERY MUCH UNDECIDED.

Bah!

The crazy GFS lost next weeks big storm with the 12z run today, had it stronger than ever at 18z and now lost it again with the 00z run. Maybe it can decide tomorrow what it wants to do.

First Mention...

The 3 AM AFD from the Indianapolis NWS Office has this mention...

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Snow Day Update

I just thought I would cap off the night be saying the model runs look excellent for the big snow next week. That reminded me I should update the snow day prediction I made for area schools too.

Remember that the term "snow day" is a general term for any winter weather related cancellation of school. Anything from snow to ice to freezing fog to arctic cold gets counted.

So I predicted four days and have counted up two so far. I feel moderate confidence that I will have my four by the end of next week if not more. *sweet*

Next Week...

This is the storm I am speaking about. Look how nice this is setting up.

Take a Break...

That is what the weather is saying this week. It looks pretty dry and cold (but compared to last week it might seem like spring or summer). If there is any snow, it will fall as a trace but nothing to get worked up about.

With that said, it won't be quiet forever. There is a lot of forecast models showing various version of one really, really nice snow storm come the weekend into next week. When I say nice, I mean 6 to 12+ inches and it will run across the Midwest like a bowling ball.

The last one of these was the Valentines Day Storm in 2007. That dropped 17" in Lafayette, 12" in Kokomo and 8" in Indianapolis. That brings back some sweet memories.

Freezing Drizzle Overnight...

A first round of freezing drizzle has passed over the area leaving surfaces quite slick. The local police scanner is very active with accidents including a jack knifed truck and trailer plus several roll overs. A second round appears to be on our doorstep.

If you are going out, drive with caution.

Freezing Drizzle & Cold...

A slight chance for slight freezing drizzle is possible this afternoon and evening. It won't be much but it also won't take much to make the roads and walks very slick with the existing snow pack.

Temperatures will remain cooler with not above freezing warm up now on tap for the upcoming week. The precipitation amounts are light for the week but several days could see a dusting or slightly more of snow.

I replaced the battery on the weather station last month and I guess the new one was bad. It isn't working so only daytime readings are available when the solar panel is producing electricity. I will try to get it replaced when the weather/roof conditions allow.

As an alternate option, you can get the latest data from a new station online at Nothwestern school here - http://www.nwsc.k12.in.us/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=112

I also am working on an option to show the data from personal weather stations all over the area here - http://www.kokomo-weather.com/WU_HC.php

Area Temperature Readings...

No question it is cold today. While I do enjoy snow, I am not too keen on these temperatures. I could not fathom living in a climate where this was the norm.

The area reading from personal weather stations vary -16 to -19 below. The record for Kokomo was -26 which happened on 1/20 and 1/21 in 1985.

An interesting list of record low temperatures for Indiana is available here - http://www.agry.purdue.edu/climate/climatechange/lowmaxmintemp.pdf

A balmy high of 2 will be today's warm temperature.

Warmer Weekend...

If you can call low 20's warm, then we will have a warm weekend. Saturday will start below zero before climbing to the low 20's. Tuesday or Wednesday should see temperatures finally reaching slightly above freezing.

There are chances for snow starting Saturday into the first of the week but no significant accumulations.

COLD! COLD! COLD!

Not much elaborate on other than it is going to be very cold over the next couple of days. We are not expected to go above zero on Thursday and only a couple of degrees above zero on Friday.

Looks like another clipper could bring snow as early as Friday night and more for the weekend. Sunday and Monday could see even more snow. I will sort out the details tomorrow and just enjoy the fresh white stuff we received today.

Looks Like 4 Inches

I think we are going to finish right at 4 inches for this snow. A whole lot better than I would have thought. The snow should end by end late afternoon.

Looks like the surface low is going to cross Indiana in the next couple of hours and then the winds and colder temperatures will arrive.

Snow Today...

Looks like the snow will continue today. Forecast accumulations are 2-5 inches but I think the low side is my call. Disappointing overnight snowfall amount. Heaviest snow appears to be going south.

Temperatures are continuing to trend colder for Thursday and Friday.

Snow Coming...

It looks like the snow will arrive sometimes after 5 AM. I will not increase my forecast for 2-3 inches. This time it looks like we will either be in the best track or just north.

Anticipate school delays for Wednesday or maybe a snow day if the timing and amount is correct.

Wednesday Snow

Many low confidence forecasts around given the bad computer models and unpredictable weather. Wednesday should be a snowy day with snow arriving around 6 AM continuing for the next 18 hours. The heaviest snow looks to be last afternoon/early evening.

The storm has shown signs of being weaker as it gets closer so will keep my forecast for snow on the lower side of the models for now. I think 2-3 inches is my call for now.

Warm Tongue - Ugh!

The snow which fell last evening was great but it wasn't much and warm tongue drove north and drove the snow away. It even appeared to rain overnight. Old Mother Nature just won't give us a break.

The next snow comes in tomorrow with another unpredictable clipper system. Early call would be a couple of inches but unreliable forecast models have been showing 4 to 6 inches.

About the only thing that seems assured is the cold weather.

Overnight Snow

The overnight snow doesn't look overly impressive. Expect 1 inch to be the most we should see. Strong winds however will blow it around causing hazardous driving conditions.

Bring It On...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WIND WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN SPEED AND WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE ANY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OR IS FALLING TO BLOW AROUND CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY IN THE BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP BELOW ONEMILE AT TIMES ON TUESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BY NOON TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY LUNCH TIME.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS

Good Morning...

This will be the best day of the week with temperatures near 30. Low 20's overnight with snow later tonight becoming moderate by Tuesday morning. Expect 1-2 inches.

Falling temperatures tomorrow to overnight lows below zero for Wednesday morning. Wednesday brings a better snow chance with much colder temperatures to follow.

Jim's Tip: The bitter cold will give your furnace a workout this week. It might be a good time to replace your filters and give everything a once over. I'm sure getting a serviceman for your furnace later in the week will be a frustrating effort.

This Week in Snow...

I have been beating the drum about the cold for this upcoming week but I have not mentioned the snow. There will be chances almost every day for snow from clippers. Yes, every day! Now don't expect a double digit dumping but in the end there could be a nice snow cover for us.

The first clipper hit will come as early as tomorrow with 1 to 2 inches in the overnight.

Some key things to keep in mind...

Clippers can over perform. This past weekend was just such a storm. (It just didn't hit us.)

Snow ratios can be very high with very cold weather. Single digit to below zero can make ratios go from a typical 10/12 to 1 to 15/20 to 1.

The surprise clipper from last February I recently highlighted was classic over performance due to cold temperatures. We had single digits the night when the clipper came through.

Area School Update: I think there will be 2 hour delays from Tuesday through end if the week.

[NWS] ...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HEADED FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...

...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HEADED FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS COMING WEEK. ARCTIC AIR FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS IN TWO SEPARATE WAVES. THE FIRST ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF LESS THAN TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE SECOND... AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS AS COLD AS TEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD ON THURSDAY AS WELL...FALLING TO LESS THAN TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO AGAIN. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS VERY COLD WEATHER.

COLD EVERYWHERE...

hope everyone is ready to stay bundled up this week. It is unlikely we will reach above freezing through next weekend. Significant cold will arrive as early we Wednesday morning with single digit lows and continue with even colder temperatures with sub zero lows and single digit highs for Thursday and Friday.

The cold weather will accompany several chances for snow. There are no large snow dumps coming but multiple light accumulations are possible almost every day. A couple of inches seems most likely on Wednesday.

Snowfall accumulation maps show a total of 4-8 inches falling by weeks end.

Inauguration Weather Information

Next Tuesday (1/20) will be another Presidential Inauguration and weather has been a factor many times. Some interesting facts can be found on the NWS office covering the DC area. Before you look, answer this fun question...

What was the warmest temperature for an Inauguration?

a.) 51
b.) 89
c.) 48

And name the President...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/Inauguration/Inauguration.html

Great Little System...

For some anyway. Lots of reports of 6+ inches and a few approaching 10 inches. Nothing like that here of course. Just some freezing rain and light snow.

Another Screw Job...

No snow but some Zr (frozen precipitation) outside making slick roads according reports on the scanner. Duke Energy is reporting just a couple of outages in their coverage area for the state so it isn't very bad.

I am not anticipating much in the way of snow so I am going to bust big on my 2-4 inch call. The Zr should change over to snow as colder air works its way in. Accumulations will be light.

Those in the narrow band of the clipper to out north are getting a good hit. Reports range from 5 to 9 inches and it is still coming down as the system is moving st a snails pace. For us, the snow drought continues.

Very Narrow Band

The clipper band is pretty narrow. It is about 4 counties tall at the moment. The rain back in IL and MO should mix into the clipper's snow as it drops a little south and provide us with some of the white stuff.

My Call Stands...

I still like my 2-4" call for this snow event. The NWS is calling for 3-5". Either way will be a nice change from the cold snowless drab we have been having.

My thoughts...

I will stick with my 2-4" call for snow. I hope to bust low but I know there is a very sharp cut off on the snow amounts and we are on the edge.

Indy Weather Story

NWS: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER FROM TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL INDIANA...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. THE CHANCES FOR SLEET ARE MAINLY OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW BY AROUND 7 AM SATURDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Quick Update...

Just a quick update about the Saturday snow. The system has pulled a little more south on the models tonight. The runs are not completed but the general thinking is the 1-3" might be a tad low but not too much. Maybe a 2-4" call for snow. More details in the morning.

NWS: Special Weather Statement

...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LAFAYETTE TO KOKOMO TO MUNCIE. FARTHER SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE INDIANAPOLIS AND TERRE HAUTE AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. PERSONS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER SYSTEM.

Saturday Snow

Yes, there has been some hinting of snow for Saturday. A nice clipper system will bring with it a chance for 1-3 inches of snow from Friday night into Sunday. The forecast models show a strong gradient with the snow totals and minor shifts could make large differences in our totals.

The good news is this storm doesn't look to have issues we have seen with the recent storms. Ice is not expected to be a problem. (Well, maybe it will be given the afternoon model runs and soundings.)

A more detailed forecast should be ready later tonight after the evening model runs. Those runs will include the first full sampling of upper air data for this storm.

FYI - The cold still looks like a very real possibility for next week.

Bring On The Cold...

It seems all of the models are supporting the heavy duty cold shot for next week...

Cold Shot Coming Next Week...

Both the GFS and Euro Forecast Models have been showing a cold shot for the middle of next week. It looks brutal with single digits for most of Wednesday.

Slick Roads

Expect some possible precipitation overnight in the likely form of snow. Not much in accumulations however.

School delays seem likely given the poor road conditions and possible fog.

What a tease...

The weather isn't doing much but making slick roadways. Be careful when driving as you might be OK but the other guy might not be. The scanner is busy with accident calls.

Look for some additional intermittent precipitation through tomorrow. The wintry mix today should change over to all snow by late evening. Accumulations will be around an inch.

No excitement...

It looks like a couple of inches possible with a little mixing and some rain. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no snow either. Overall this looks to be an annoying mess spread out over Tuesday and Wednesday. Still I hold a little hope for a two hour delay for Wednesday with the area schools but it isn't not very probable.

Night all...

More Observations Coming...

I have been tinkering with a new layout to bring a second weather station online. This station will be just like mine plus have UV and Solar Radiation measurements.

However when I was tinkering with the php code for the site, I stumbled on a way to add some additional data from other local personal weather stations. This will be more cool that I could have imagined. My goal is to have this online by Superbowl Sunday.

We Wait...

The model runs starting now and very the next couple of hours will have the best sampling so far of the system ejecting out if the southwest. Will the system remain moisture starved? Maybe it will strengthen and go northwest. The trend to warmer could continue to make ice a much bigger threat.

Stay tuned...

We Need Moisture...

The track of the low to our south and east would make for a great snow maker if we had some good moisture to go with it. Instead we likely will have a light accumulations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Upcoming Snow...

The temperatures look to be seasonal for January for the following week. A couple of systems are on tap this week. Neither will be memorable storms.

The middle of the week storm will be Tuesday and Wednesday. A possibility of some mixing at the start but it overall looks like snow for the majority of the event. However there will be just 2 or 3 inches likely which will spread out over the entire duration. A possible two hour delay for Wednesday would be the only disruption I can foresee now.

Another clipper will arrive for the weekend. Another system that doesn't look to be an over performer.

Quick Thunderstorm

If you were like me, you were still awake thinking about the Colts loss in San Diego. However, I was a bit surprised when this pop up thunderstorm came roaring through. Also note: I managed to find a time when I was home and the conditions were favorable to get on the roof and clean out the rain gauge. We are once again recording rain.

OK, I'll Bite...

The forecast models have been showing a storm for Monday evening into Wednesday next week for a while. The storm isn't going away like so many have. Now the details have flopped around quite a bit and there is no certainty we will see a huge storm but I think there will be some snow/icing issues with this that could cause some school delays or rescheduling of sports activities.

The forecast should be much more clear after the weekend system bringing rain comes through.

December Cold & Wet Plus Looking Ahead

Despite the blowtorch warmth the last seven days of December with +9 to +12 above normal temperatures, the month still finish -2 to -4 below normal. Precipitation was +200 to +300 percent above normal too.

However that equated to around 3 inches of snow and a couple of ice storms. When we did get the precipitation, we had warm temperatures. It was a month to make snow lovers bitter and realize Mother Nature is a cruel and uncaring mistress.

Just some additional salt in our open wounds:

Chicago - 7th snowiest December on record
Detroit - 6th snowiest December on record
Rockford - 2nd snowiest December on record

I could list dozens of places in Wisconsin that had their snowiest December ever. Remember last winter was a record setting winter for much of Wisconsin. They are significantly ahead of that already.

So what is ahead in our forecast? Before I answer, let's take a look at a Area Forecast Discussion put out earlier this week my the Indianapolis Office of the National Weather Service.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE AND BRING SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE TRACK OF THIS HISTORICALLY DOESNT TRANSLATE INTO BIG SNOW AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AND A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SOME MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR.

They were pretty confident for several days about the snow for tonight into tomorrow. So were the models and so was I. The snow threat evaporated and now we are going to remain dry. There are more threats on the forecast models but they don't seem to be handling the weather pattern correctly. There was a huge threat for the weekend into the first of next week. It looked to shut down the east coast from DC to Maine. But it evaporated too.

There look to be several hits of snow for us in the next couple of weeks but until we get closer and confidence is extremely high, then I will just go about business as normal and quit getting excited about nothing.