Cold Days Ahead...

It looks like high pressure will move in and clear our the region allowing for overnight cooling. Sunday night will be single digits followed by Monday night being slightly warmer with a low near 10. Tuesday finally starts the warming trend with 50's be end of the week.

It's Official

Kokomo, Indiana is Mother Nature's official screw zone for snow. It looks like we will be winding down winter with no big snow (or even minor snow) on any of the medium range forecast models. After this weekends cold shot, a warming trend with commence bring more seasonal temperatures in the 40's and then 50's be next weekend.

Our seasonal total seems to be around 12" or so if my memory serves correctly. That would be even less of the late January storm didn't over produce for Howard County dropping 6 to 7 inches of snow.

I declared Kokomo the official screw zone (and Lafayette the honorary screw screw zone) after watching storms go north and south of us. Indianapolis is either at or slightly above their seasonal average. I decided to make the announcement today when it looks like huge imapct snow will cover the south, middle Atlantic state and costal New England, all snow starved regions.

NYC to Beantown could see 10-12"+ from this beauty. We just get to enjoy (not!) the cold being dragged out of Canada by the deep trough.

At this point I am ready to toss in the towel and say bring on spring and warm weather. I wouldn't mind a few 70 degree days in our forecast.

One thing that bears watching right now is the early build up of heat in the Southwest. Arizona and Southern California has been rather warm this past week with 90's for some areas. At some point that energy will get ejected in the Plain States/Midwest/Ohio Valley and could make for some interesting weather.

Rain and Possible Thunderstorms...

It looks like Thursday will be wet for much of the day. Rain chances throughout the daytime increasing to 100% by evening. Afternoon thunderstorms with an increasing potential after 8 PM pose a very slight risk for severe weather as the cold front overtakes the state.

The better severe potential looks to be southeast of our area.

After a couple of warm days, the temperatures will trend back down to winter like and by early next week, expect teens overnight. No snow/precipitation potential after the system moves out during the overnight Thursday. Friday looks to be windy behind the cold front with gust near 30 MPH.

Upcoming Week...

It looks like a quiet start to the work week with a gradual warming trend toward the weeks end. Rain near the end of the week and possible accumulating snow Saturday but we will need to wait before we get excited about it.

I think the most noticeable think showing up on the models for the next two week are no signs of an early spring warm up. This miserable and lackluster winter continues to hang on for a bit longer.

Don't get excited...

Yes, the snow is coming down fast and furious but it won't last but a few hours and with the temperatures several degrees above freezing, it won't pile up. :(

Nothing Good To Report...

Someone earlier today made a great analogy regarding the models showing snow for days and then at the last minute coming up with a different solution...

It's just like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Lucy promises she won't pull it away this time but then she does just like every other time before.


The models backed off on the moisture or moved north. The warm air moved north and will now cause us mixing issues on Saturday. Our air is fairly dry at this point. We are at 76% humidity with a 15 degree dew point. Even when it does start snowing which seems to be going slower than expected, it will take a bit of time to get the lower atmosphere saturated.

I will stand by my first call of 3-4" but I also know I will likely bust high. Just days ago I was hoping to bust low. There are some subtle differences in what was forecast and what is currently happening but I cannot makes heads or tails out of it and predict what will happen. Given I don't expect or see anyone else expecting some overnight magic from these differences, I am not going to wait out the late arrival of the snow.

Have a great night and let's see what the morning brings.

Oh, did I mention there might be another accumulating snow for the end of next week? Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away this time.

Full Update Later But...

Looks like snow totals will be trending down and rain and/or a dry slot will be a problem too. I am on the road but will provide a full update later tonight after I have a chance to better analyze things.

As you can guess, don't expect any advisory from the NWS given the lesser totals.

NAM & GFS Solutions...

Here are the two different solutions from the latest (6z) run of the GFS and NAM. It is pretty obvious the NAM (bottom image) would really make this a non event for central Indiana. of course the GFS (top image) also doesn't give us much wiggle room.

Snow On Track...

The snow is on track but which track remains to be seen. The NAM really has a northerly track and gives us the mother of all dry slots. Ugh! At least the NWS says thinks it is a bit too aggressive with its solution and is not giving it full credence. As you can see below, the NWS has us for a 3" accumulation and I still like my 3-4" first call from Tuesday. (Remember you heard it here first!)

If the NAM trends back and the other models stay on track, we could see a snow advisory issued after the 12z runs this morning. It will be close. (If everything else makes a jump to follow the NAM then snow lovers will be jumping from ledges around here. It will be ugly and disappointing to say the least.)

Pick Your Posion...

So we have a big question mark with the models. You can choose the NAM which has more juice and is a bit north or you can choose the GFS which is broader is scope and south but not as much precipitation and a much better chance for dry slot issues cutting back on our snow.

Quite a problem and I guess I will let the Euro which runs in a couple of hours and the professional forecasters sort it out and surprise me in the morning. (I guess if it was easy, anyone could do it. *grin*)

Snow for Saturday - Check

Still looking like we will see our snow. Even the NAM is now buying it for our area.

Snow Update...

Not a lot of time for a full review of information but things still seem on track for the 3-4" first call I made a few days ago. The Indianapolis NWS office did mention some issues with mixing sleet but I have to *guess* they are talking about their southern counties.

The NAM still short changes us on precipitation but otherwise seems close with its pattern.

Saturday...

Not many really changes in the GFS solution but the NAM (not shown) has went north with the snow making it an I-80 and above event. Still, the Euro is also on our side and things should be on track for the 3-4" accumulations (or possible more).

Some lovin' from the Indianapolis Evening AFD...

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE OR STRONGER UVM IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 06Z-18Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THAT TIME. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN THE 3 IS AROUND 2 INCHES INVOF INTERSTATE 70 WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
LAF-OKK-MIE.

I still like my first call of 3-4" with possible more in some areas depending on the clippers exact path.

Euro...

Not much change with the Euro other than an ugly dry slot shooting from Lafayette into Kokomo. Assuming/Hoping the dry slot is wrong, then we still likely could see my first call. Otherwise we might be trending down in accumulations.

GFS Model Update

I won't post the snow maps since they are not 100% complete but overall I like my initial 3-4" call for Saturday and think it still will be good. The best snow will be near 1-80 and some north and I am not sure the bigger snow I saw on models yesterday and the night before will verify but I do think the 1-2" call by the NWS is low for our area.

Dose of Reality...

Here is the tail end of the Area Forecast Discussion from Indianapolis. Much sadness for snow lovers...

FRI NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO TOPS.

I do not approve. *grin*

NAM Model (6z and 12z)

Here is the current and previous run of the NAM forecast model for snow. The 6z has us in the best spot 10-12" of pure joy but the 12z has us in the 4-6" range. No doubt the 6z run is more fantasy that fact. As you can see, the gradient is pretty sharp so just a couple of counties will make the difference between good snow and a dusting. I still like my first call and do think the better/heavier snow will be north again. I will post the GFS in a couple of hours when it completes.

Rev Up The Hype Machine...

The mid week storm just doesn't seem to develop into anything other than a good rain and maybe a little convection to our south. A dusting of snow is possible on the back end but nothing to get excited about.

Now for the hype...

If has been advertised for a while on the medium range models and I think it is time to bring it up for discussion. Friday night into Saturday look like a solid hit from a clipper. Both moisture and cold are present for this event. I hate putting out accumulation totals so early but I know people like to have an idea as early as possible.

A solid 3 to 4 inches seems quite likely with winds 10 to 15 MPH should make for decent event. I will say it is too early to get real excited but it wouldn't be at all a surprise of see double that amount either. This looks like a really decent snow event and the models have been pretty consistent with enough moisture to do the higher amount.

Mid Week Rain/Snow

It looks like a low pressure will track nearby and bring with it rain and a little backside snow in the middle of the week. There is enough moisture for several inches of accumulating snow if the cold could push down quick enough. However we have no snow pack or deep arctic chill to offer any help so things looks pretty iffy for now so plan on accumulations similar to what we had when we woke up this morning but without the almost instant melting.

There are several upcoming events advertised on the GFS and Euro models but all have the problem described above. Maybe winter is not going to give us one last hurrah. If so, then I say let the warm weather commence.

Don't Give Up On Winter Yet...

I think old man winter still has a little life left in him this season and we could possible see several additional accumulating snows. The first of which will come Friday night into Saturday. A one or possibly two inch snowfall will make for slick road conditions on Saturday.

Another possible storm looks to happen mid to late next week and the following week could also see a rather impressive snow if the models are even close. One thing I don't see is any warm up in the couple of weeks.

Wind & Rain & No Power

The rain has made for flooding across roads and in yards and basements. The wind has caused countless power outages across the state. What a wonderful mess...

HIGH WIND WARNING

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE VERY STRONG WINDS TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WIND OF THIS STRENGTH CAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. WITH A SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TREES COULD EASILY BE TOPPLED IN THE STRONG WIND. IN ADDITION TO TREE DAMAGE...POWER OUTAGES COULD ALSO OCCUR AS LOOSE TREE BRANCHES AND TREES COULD FALL INTO POWER LINES.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WINDS. TRAVELERS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS WHEN MAKING TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL FIND TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Severe Weather Ahead...

A line of thunderstorms will pass through tonight. More rain Tuesday night into a stormy day on Wednesday. A high near 60 will make for a possible organized severe weather event. Strong winds will accompany the cold front Wednesday afternoon along with a passing low pressure. It could be our first severe weather event of 2009.

The upcoming weekend could bring snow to our area. Several inches seems quite likely and could hamper Girls Sectional Basketball Games across the state.

Kentucky Ice Storm & Our Forecast

Our forecast will be relatively quiet. Warmer temperatures with chances for rain on Saturday. A little colder but dry for Sunday and then more warm weather and rain for start of next week. Next week could be one of those classic weeks in Indiana when the phrase "don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes and it will change" could very well apply. Warm and rain to start the week with possible thunderstorms in the middle of the week and turning colder with possible accumulating snow by the weekend.

The ice storm experienced last week in Kentucky was an absolute mess for everyone. An online weather enthusiast and friend who does emergency weather coordination for several counties kept a nice blog of the experience with dozens of photos. I encourage you to check it out here...

http://blog.usawx.com/2009/02/05/february-5-2009-historic-ice-storm-hits-western-kentucky/

National Weatherman's Day

Thursday, February 5 is National Weatherman's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe.

Below Zero Tonight...

The forecast is for a below zero low. Somewhere from -2 to -5 should be where we bottom out.

The warming trend starting Friday doesn't look quite as strong as earlier forecast. Maybe we can stay cold for next weeks storm.

Lake Effect Snow

0558 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 E CHESTERTON 41.60N 86.96W
02/04/2009 E29.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

Yes, that storm report is for 29 inches. Wow!

Check out this link for photos - http://www.post-trib.com/1413217,gallery-portsnow.photogallery

I am jealous; so very jealous.

LES Overnight...

The band of LES should produce some accumulating snow for us overnight. A couple of inches seems likely in western Howard County and just under an inch on the eastern side.

Lake Effect Snow

The people of Laporte County are seeing significant LES (lake effect snow) which will end tomorrow giving them 16+ inches. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour have been falling over the county. A large band is reaching down to just west of Howard County and could possible provide some light snow and flurries overnight keeping roads and walkways very slick.

Combine the slick roads with some drifting and cold temperatures and you have the makings for a two hour delay for area county schools.

The quick and very heavy bust of snow was caused by a strong upper level low. Early last week that disturbance was forecast to merge in with the low which came out of the Gulf of Mexico and make our superstorm. As you know, it didn't happen and there was a lot of disappointment from the snow lovers.

The good news is while we should see a nice warm up over the starting Friday and lasting into the next week, it won't last forever and we should see some stormy weather in the second half of February.

I am hopeful we will see a really good snow storm yet this winter. While we did have a good snow last week, it still feels like we got cheated with the best snow going south. Today was another example of snow going south. Of course earlier this winter we saw snow to our north and west. There just has to be one storm to track across Howard County before this winter is said and done. There has to be...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED HEADLINE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1255 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

.NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE NEW SNOWFALL MAY CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL THIS AFTERNOON.

1216 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE NEW SNOWFALL MAY CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG AND EAST OF A SHELBYVILLE TO MUNCIE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

Snow Ended...

The snow has all but ended for our area. Strong blustery winds will remain through the overnight as colder air moves in.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN826 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

.A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE AN ARTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSSCENTTRAL INDIANA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. GUSTYNORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF THE DRY SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTORIENTED ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SLICK CONDITIONSALONG WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL MAKETRAVELING DANGEROUS THIS MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THATVISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPENAREAS.

BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...ANDUSE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Snow, WInd, Rain, Warm....

Today and tonight will see some light snow. Around one inch total. It will also be windy for the next 24 hours and blowing and drifting snow could be an issue again on the roads (which finally look decent).

The forecast models keep advertising a warm up starting this weekend. Temperatures in the 40's and 50's through much of next week seem like a real possibility. However there also have been a fair amount of rain on the models too. Combine a couple of inches of rain with melting snow and flooding looks like a real possibility for many areas. Of course if the temperatures could turn colder, we could have more significant snow.

the Blizzard of 1978...

What a great storm that was...

Punxsutawney Phil Says: "Six More Weeks Of Winter"

The official word from Punxsutawney Phil is six more weeks of winter. Visit the official site for additional information.

http://www.groundhog.org/

On a more local note: the HPC gave up on the strong lake effect snow forecast which was to bring us several inches of snow. Now we look to get less than in ince today and maybe another inch by Wednesday morning. Enjoy the quiet start to the work week.

Everyone Busted This Time...

Just about everyone who put out a forecast with the current storm moving up the eastern seaboard over the next few days. The models were all over the place and one would assume if 2 or 3 or sometimes 4 models were in agreement over a could of runs that you could start to make some sort of forecast from that information.

Nothing could have been further from the truth this time. It has been a nightmare and many professional meteorologists throwing their hands up. Those who work for private companies that have to produce a forecast busted several times as they flip flopped with the models. Many of the NWS offices used the word "uncertainty" in their AFDs.

As of now, there are no watches, warnings, or advisories out for the snow. It is very much a possibility the lake effect snow which could whip across out state could drop more snow than many east coast locations.

The rest of our weeks looks pretty quiet and our snow pack won't make it through next weekend with the warm temperatures. The better look for a return to a stormy weather pattern will be around the 10th of this month. The 5 day period following shows a lot of moisture and possible snow or rain.

From the HPC on our possible snow...

It looks like the HPC has not yet given up on some accumulating snow in our area. If we received 4", I would be extra surprised however.

Snow...

There remains a lot of uncertainty with the upcoming storm but I think it is certain we won't see a significant impact from it. We are just way too far west of whatever track it decides to take. There should be a small amount of accumulating snow on the other of 1 to 2 inches over the next few days but more would be highly unlikely.

It is interesting to see no watches, warnings, or advisories across the east coast for the storm. The current New York City impact this morning shows 8 to 12 inches depending on which model you want to follow. That would be a very significant event for them and yet reading this mornings AFD they remain unsure of the storms impact.