Rains Staying West (For Now)...

So far the rain staying to our west and has not moved into our area as first forecast. The NWS has lowered the total amounts to around an inch by Saturday morning and no longer see flooding as a primary concern.

I will mention that this precipitation was shown on the GFS model almost for the early runs 16 days ago. It also showed significant cold with the system and until recently, the two systems phasing together. Just imagine if this was a nice snow storm. *grin*

Wet & Windy on Friday

Look for wet and windy for Friday. Gusts up to 35 MPH plus rainfall amount approaching two inches by Saturday morning are all likely.

Lunchtime update on the weather

While the sun is currently shining, the scattered clouds will not allow for full heating potential so I doubt anyone near our area gets about the middle to upper 60's. The storm showers are already falling across extreme western Kentucky, eastern Illinois, and back west. The system will continue to move in our direction with rain arriving by early evening.

Heavy rain will fall overnight into Saturday morning before tapering off. A solid two inches or more could be possible with the rain. (It will make for sloppy sectional football.)

Currently no flood watches have been issued for our region but I know the NWS is monitoring things closely and could likely post them later this afternoon. The ground remain saturated and waterways was already running off excessive amounts of water.

I hope to get home today to change out the battery of the weather station on the roof before it starts raining.

Also, look for the winter weather forecast summary coming Sunday. I will also announce the snow day predictions for area schools at that time.

Wet & Windy...

Rain will last overnight into Wednesday morning. The best day of the week will be Thursday where temperatures will approach 70 with winds building from the south/southeast. A tight gradient around a deep low pressure will track across the plains into Canada bringing strong winds Friday into Saturday.

Overcast will keep the Friday temperatures down while the moisture could be streaming up from the Gulf. At this time severe weather is not expected but a few thunderstorms are possible. If the models continue to show the second phase of energy slower, windy and wet will continue into Saturday.

More seasonal temperatures for Sunday into Monday with gradually falling through the week.

Wet!

We had over 1.5 inches of rain since midnight and near 2 inches since this started yesterday. It looks like we will have several hours of clearing before some additional rain chances will come in tonight along with the cold front. It won't be nearly as much this go around.

A cooler weekend into Monday before we get near 60 for the early part of next week. Looks for a cooler Halloween coming up.

Goodbye dear friend...

I write this morning not to tell you about upcoming weather but to say goodbye to my friend Spencer. Last evening a terrible turn of unfortunate events cause him to be attacked and injured in his own back yard. While we hope it wounds were superficial, they turned out to be more than the little guy would be able to handle.

Spencer was my first dog and it took 45 years for him to come into my life. I was never keen on dogs having been bitten when I was a small child. When my wife started suggesting we get a dog, I tried to convince her otherwise. However I lost that battle and Spencer was brought to us in April of 2007. He was a rescue which had been abused in his life as a puppy. When we got him he still showed signs of frostbite and was very thin. Spencer was thought to be an older dog since he was frail.

He was still pretty skittish his first few days around here. His abuser was a man so he was particularly afraid of me at first. Over time we became friends. He loved his toys and I would steal them and he would steal them back. I was never allowed to squeak any toy.
One of the reasons I didn’t want a dog was the early, too early morning times they needed to go outside. I like sleeping in and am not a morning person. Spencer was the same. He wouldn’t wake you and would sleep as late as you wanted. When we took him out before work, he would come back in and fall back to sleep. I was told he needed 15 hours of sleep per day and he did get every minute of it.

That isn’t to say he slept his life away. He loved the outdoors. Walking and exploring. Even the seemingly endless mundane walks through the neighborhood were always new to him. Frogs and grasshoppers to other canine friends he wanted to check out them all. He sniffed out the tiniest things and I doubt there was a mailbox post he didn’t mark several dozen times. He even found a couple of moles and dug them up ridding the world of those worthless creatures.

His exploring took on all new meanings when we went to new places. Besides local favorites like the dog park or pet store, he love to ride in a car anywhere. His made travels too many states including a trip last fall to Arkansas. He was on a canoe and discovered minnows and chased them up and down the shoreline. He never once batted an eye about being in the camper around the animals. His energy and enthusiasm never ended on that trip until we made the long drive home. He found a comfortable spot among the camping gear in the truck and slept the entire 14 hour drive home only hopping out for potty breaks.

He recently attended dog camp with Jeri, my wife, in Wisconsin for four days. She has a wonderful memory of the two of them together and I am ever so grateful she had a pet photo professionally taken while there.

Last evening started out like so many in our house. I came home Spencer greeted me wanting to hit the outside. We went out and walked down a few houses before he decided needed to go back to sit in his spot in our, no his back yard and watch over it.

The neighbor has two dogs including a large back lab which would stroll through our yard. Spencer didn’t like that at all. The lab knew Spencer put on a fierce show and would always walk a wide berth around his area. However Spencer thought the yard next door was his too. He would watch over it until the two dogs were back inside.

He was out keeping watch when a dog a on the street behind us broke though the door and took off. The owner gave a good chase but he zipped with into Spencer territory. Without hesitation, Spencer defended what was his and the large dog attacked right back. It was just a few seconds before the other dogs owner was there trying to hold back her dog. A few seconds after that Jeri and I were outside helping Spencer inside that even with his injuries wanted to stay out and defend both his space, us, and the other dogs owner.

We knew he was bleeding badly when we got him inside and he wanted to hide and be left alone. Jeri coaxed him out as I found an emergency animal hospital open late in Carmel. I drove as fast as possible. We could see he was in pain.

While there, he was a trouper. He stood up so people could see his wounds and when he was put into his cage and before he received any pain medication, he came to me and wagged his tail trying to say he was going to be ok. He had much more than superficial wounds. His recovery if he made it through surgery to repair damaged internal organs would be slow and painful and he likely would not ever be the same. When we came back to see him several hours later, he was in severe pain even with his morphine drip and antibiotics. He knew we were there and allowed up to say a tearful goodbye never once being angry with us or snapping.

Today he is sleeping in before starting his first day with the big dogs in the sky. I hope the place is filled with squirrels and rabbits he can catch and maybe some flowing creeks with minnows jump after. He will always be missed with his comfort and companionship. Spencer, I love you.

Warm Week Ahead

Looks for more seasonal week with temperature in the 60's to near 70. Overnight lows will hover just below 50. It will be a good early in the week to finish up the outdoor chores since rain should hold off until the end of the week. Possible severe weather somewhere in the Plains to Ohio Valley late in the week also. Lots of late season uncertainty so nobody has a prediction out yet but many eyes are on the potential.

Did WWKI Say Snow?

Yes, several people in the office just had their jaw drop to the floor when WWKI mentioned a chance for a rain/snow mix on Friday morning. It wont be an accumulating snow but some mixed in heavy wet flakes.

The 850 mb (5000 ft) temperatures are -3 to -5 Celsius with thickness values in the 533 to 538 range. Surface temperatures are still above freezing so it won't stick at least.

I hope you like rain...

While the rain amounts won't be anything like last week, it looks like each day/night through Friday will carry with it the chance of rain. By the end if the week, expect a total of 3/4" to an inch. The temperature will also remain seasonally cool with highs only mid to upper 40's.

October Cold

There has been a large portion of the continental US with below normal temperatures for the first 1/3 of the month. It looks to continue with local temperatures not getting anywhere near normal through end of the month.

Rain Continues...

The rain continues but should end by evening. Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches has fallen so far and less than an additional half inch is likely. While it continues to rain, there is some good news to report.

The rain has been slow & steady which has allowed the dry ground to absorb the water so I have seen little evidence of standing water. While we remain under a flood watch, I don't foresee any flood warnings in our near future.

Additional good news relating to the temperatures. While the forecast models have been advertising a deep plunge of cold air in the long and medium range, the more accurate short range portion of the models has backed way off. While we will still see seasonal readings with slightly cooler than normal mornings, the deep freeze which looked eminent is now on hold for a little while longer.

More Rain...

We have reached an inch of rain so far with this wet system over the region. The rain will continue through the night with an additional inch possible before noon tomorrow. The heaviest rain has remained south and east and that trend should continue.

One item of concern is 22 West has new pavement and just a temporary center line. It was not fun driving on it during the daytime. Anyone traveling it overnight should slow down and be alert.

Flood Watch

We are under a Flood Watch from the NWS from this afternoon into Friday afternoon. A significant rain making system will be across the area with with widespread 1 to 2 inches across much of Indiana with areas south of I-70 seeing the potential for twice that amount.

To our southwest in Illinois into Missouri will see potential amounts of 4 plus inches. I wouldn't be surprised to find some Indiana schools on a delay tomorrow due to the excessive rain causing flooded roads.

The threat for severe weather across our area is minimal but cannot be ruled out 100%. A strong cell could possibly pop up amongst the mess.

Cold & Wet Weather Coming Soon...

It looks like the end of the week will be a wet one with heavy rains from Missouri into Indiana. Models indicate amounts of 1 to 2 inches in Indiana with possible localized heavy rain of 3 inches or more.

A cold shot is going to follow with temperatures across the weekend into next week with low temperature near freezing. While I do not expect any snow in our area, some light coatings could occur Iowa and northwestern Illinois.

Winter Forecasts

Winter Forecasts: Make it cold and snowy...