Severe Weather

Currently it isn't threatening our area and it doesn't look like anything will happen for us until after midnight at the earliest.  Make sure your weather alert radios are handy.

Watching Severe Weather To Our West...

There currently is a line of thunderstorms entering western Illinois moving east/northeast.  Nothing is eminent for us and suspect by the time the systems reaches here, the evening darkness will limit widespread severe weather but a warning or two would still seem possible.  More severe weather chances tomorrow but better chances south and east of our location. 

Another Weekend Watching Severe Weather

Another difficult forecast for our area this weekend.  Friday looks to remain dry and warm through the dinner hour before some showers could approach the area.  Better chances for rain and thunderstorms come after midnight.  Both Friday and Saturday could have some good nocturnal events. 

A huge question mark for Saturday.  One thing will be the ongoing rain and cloud cover.  Should it break for a few hours and the sun is able to warm up the atmosphere, then things could really explode.

Of course the big story will likely be the rain with more than an inch likely here and more forecast to our south.  The front should stall producing a long duration event this weekend and some areas across central Indiana could exceed three inches or more. 

Enjoy your Friday and then plan on watching movies inside this weekend.  :)

Severe Weather...

Thunderstorms will rule from Friday evening into Sunday.  The severity of these storms is still a bit of a question but look for heavy rain in excess of one inch over this time period.  Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70's for the period.

Another Round of Severe Weather

Looks like there will again be several consecutive days of severe weather for much of the eastern half of the US.  And again like last week/weekend, we will be right on the edge of possible severe weather with better chances south or west this time too.  We will need to keep watch...

Enjoy The Nice Days...

Looks like three nice days are on tap and then rain/thunderstorms move in by Friday and look to hang around into the first of next week and possibly beyond.  Severe weather looks possible for us too so again we will be monitoring the situation. 

Tornado Watch Issued

Howard County is not included but areas west and south are included until 3 AM.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/wou0100.html 

The wait may be over...

A mesoscale discussion has been issued and a watch looks possible...

Still Waiting...

Not out of the woods yet with some tornado warnings on storms in Illinois coming our way.  It will be in the overnight so I hope your weather radio is ready.  I will still continue to monitor.

I think overall a large bullet was dodged with the potential outbreak today.  The high risk issued will verify but mainly to a few large and long tracked tornadoes.  Unfortunately it appears more than a half dozen deaths have been confirmed so far in Mississippi. 

2:25 Update...

I have been following the day carefully.  Things have been bad for many in the LA, MS, and AL states already.  The first tornado watch extending into the tip of very southern Indiana has been issued.  At this point things are going as thought.  We should become active with severe weather a bit later this afternoon and evening.  Please keep paying attention to the conditions. 

Forecast Update

I am not going to do a detailed forecast at this time.  Having been away on vacation for the week plus given the widespread and dangerous conditions both ongoing and continuing for today and the overnight, I see no reason to throw out a haphazard forecast. 

My thoughts and warnings are simple for our area...

Keep alert of changing and developing conditions.  The conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado.  As you move south, this risk greatly increases and the south/deep south is already under numerous watches and warning and for them the high risk potential will verily likely be realized.  I don't hear of anyone taking about a bust today. 

Our threat will continue to increase through the afternoon with the best potential coming from 6 PM until after midnight. I will be attentive to the situation all day and will do nowcasts relating to our area as warranted. 

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR KOKOMO, IN

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather today.
There is a 2% chance for tornadoes for our area.
There is a 5% chance for significant hail for our area.

*Today is a very complex situation and I am working on our forecast.  No threats are eminent right now over our area.*

First High Risk For 2010

Severe Weather Saturday

I am beat from traveling back from NYC this afternoon/evening and will not be providing a detailed update as hoped. A very quick cursory review seems to show the severe weather for our area will note be a threat until the afternoon or evening. Look for a solid update tomorrow morning.

Severe Weather

I am sorry for no update about the severe weather potential for Kokomo tomorrow. I am currently en route back in Indianapolis and will provide a late update when I arrive home. A full compliment of updates all day tomorrow. In the mean time, now would be a good time check your weather radio.

Another Nice Day & Then...

Another nice day ahead with temperatures more seasonal like Monday.  Rain moves in tomorrow and stays around for the weekend.  While there is severe weather moving from the middle of the US to the east coast, it should stay south of us/Indiana for the most part. 

Nice start to the week...

A great start to the week.  Sunny and in the 60's for Monday-Wednesday.  Some rain moving in on Thursday and then possible thunderstorms to finish the week.  Nothing is decided enough to warrant further discussion but stay tuned should severe weather be possible...

Rain & Thunderstorms

A bit of rain and a bit of thunderstorms around the state.  The thunderstorms will be mainly east/southeast.  Rain amounts of 1/4" with 1/2" amounts for the pop up thunderstorms.

A cooler and dry weekend with a gradual warming trend and dry for next week.  Frost is possible Saturday and Sunday nights.

Thursday = Great but Friday = Rain

Another beautiful day ahead with our 5th day of 80+ degrees.  After midnight, rain and thundershowers move in and will make for a cooler and of course wetter day to end the week.  The nest chance for a thunderstorm will be late afternoon and evening with everything moving out before midnight.  Severe weather is not expected but a storm or two could bring wind and hail and might trigger a warning. 

Cooler temperatures for the weekend with highs in the 60's.  We should be back to the 70's by the middle of the week. 

The National Weather Service has said this is the warmest start to April since records have been kept in 1871.  I wonder what summer will have in store for us...

Prefect Week

Well, almost.  There could be some thunderstorms by Friday and Saturday but it is awfully early to decide that now.  Otherwise enjoy warm and sunny for the week. 

IN - Howard County Weather Alert 9:05:25 PM Apr, 09, 2010, Fri

IN - Howard County Weather Alert 9:05:25 PM Apr, 09, 2010, Fri

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Winding Down

Things are finishing up with our rain and thunderstorm maker today.  A few thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning or two but no reports of a touchdown.  Some straight line wind damage near Fort Wayne where some mobile homes were damaged.  Other scattered wind and hail reports including .88" hail at the intersection of Dixon Rd and Defenbaugh.  It was rather isolated.  I was at Dixon and Sycamore at the same time and there were strong winds and rain but no hail. 

Thursday looks cool a with a small chance for a pop up thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon and early evening.  We then warm up for the weekend.

Just maybe...

We have been missed by the severe weather so far but just maybe the one cell currently just west of Crawfordsville could rake over Howard County *if* it can hold together.  It would likely start to threaten the area around 7 PM.  Stay tuned...

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL WED AT 8:00 PM FOR KOKOMO, IN

WWUS63 KIND 071824
WCNIND
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 61
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EDT WED APR 7 2010
INC011-015-021-023-045-067-083-107-121-133-153-157-165-167-171-
080000-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.A.0061.100407T1825Z-100408T0000Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 61 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BOONE CLINTON HOWARD
IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
CARROLL
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
KNOX SULLIVAN
IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
CLAY FOUNTAIN MONTGOMERY
PARKE PUTNAM TIPPECANOE
VERMILLION VIGO WARREN
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CRAWFORDSVILLE...FRANKFORT...
KOKOMO...LAFAYETTE...TERRE HAUTE AND VINCENNES.
$$

Debating...

I have debated since my 6 am review of the severe weather forecast and data on what to write.  The cloud deck has been keeping things cool and for me that leads me to believe there will not be a lot of help to get things fired up.  Many of my online weather enthusiasts also share in my concerns.  However the Storm Prediction Center is thinking otherwise.  Here is the portion relating to Indiana...

...IL/IND...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTUREIS ALSO INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG IN THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A
RE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...BOTH
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARMSECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MESOSCALE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS REGION IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
DISCRETE INITIATION.LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A RISKOF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD INTO IND.

So now what do I say. I do see a non severe warned cell coming alive west of Urbana but that should track to our north.  Some partial clearing is also taking place in central and southern IL. hhhmmm.....

I say stay tuned and in a couple more hours we should have a better idea how today might play out.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR KOKOMO, IN

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather today.

There is a 5% chance for tornadoes.
There is a 15% chance for signficant hail.
There is a 15% chance for damaging wind.

Change account settings at http://www.cellwarn.com

Stormy Wednesday

Another record today.  We almost hit 83.  Very warm but a cooling down is coming.  So are more storms on Wednesday.  Look for mostly a squall line scenario with a few strong cells embedded in the system.  I think the strongest portion of the system will stay south of I-70.  More details tomorrow morning...

Tuesday: Sunny & Windy

That is the headline for Tuesday.  Strong winds will come from the southwest all day bring warm temperatures.  Gusts could be near 40 MPH with sustained winds near 20 MPH.  A minimal threat from severe weather for Tuesday over our area.  A return to severe weather looks likely for Wednesday.

Severe Weather Threat...

The bigger threat for severe weather is for an area south of I-70 were a tornado watch has been issued thru midnight.  Some severe weather could reach our area as well.

Streaming Video: I might be out streaming some video from my cell phone.  You can see the video here if I am out storm spotting...

http://qik.com/kokomoweather

Stormy Week Ahead...

Looks like Spring Break for Howard County schools will include a bit of storminess.  Today's chances for severe weather in Indiana are mainly south of I-70 but will move north as we approach evening.  Currently temperatures and dew points are 10 to 12 degrees warmer in southern Indiana versus here.  However we are warming up nicely and should continue to do so under mainly clear skies.  Our primary threat today would be from wind and hail.  Winds are very unidirectional across all of the area so the threat from tornadoes are minimal. 

A better severe weather threat looks likely for Wednesday and into Thursday.

Storms Possible Overnight

There is a line of thunderstorms draped from Chicago/NW Indiana to St. Louis.  Occasional hail, wind, and tornado warnings have been associated with this system.  It should be arrive sometime after 1 AM tonight.  An isolated warning is possible. 

Some Odds & Ends...

The winter forecast still is producing results.  I mentioned there would be an early and warm spring with March being above normal.  You can see we were 3 to 6 degrees above normal for the month.  Of course record temperatures were reached for the first two days of April with 80+ was achieved both days.

My prediction of an early severe weather season is busting.  However the consensus from many severe weather experts is that the season will be delayed and will then shift east.  You can read the Accuweather forecast here.

Back to winter for a second and some personal horn tooting, I participated in a snow forecast contest that covered an area from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and a bit of Canada.  In a straight up comparison of snow totals forecast versus actual, I finished fourth.  I was 88.2 inches too much but a just 6 inches better would have given me second place.  No professional meteorologist finished higher. 

My overall forecast error of individual locations put me in first place and some complex formula that is supposed to really take into account a combination of many factors showing true forecasting skill had me finish in third overall.  As I said to some fellow contestants, not bad for wild guesses.  My biggest downfall was Ottawa and Toronto Canada which has near record low snowfall.  Just over 60 inches of my 88 inch error can be attributed to these two locations. 

Severe weather looks to be active this week.  I think Indiana will see some bits and pieces from the bigger show out to our west.  West central and northern Illinois looks to be a good battleground right now.  You can see today, Monday, and Tuesday all have slight risk factors.  I am sure I will be updating more about this as the week goes on.

Saturday Storms

Look for scattered rain on Saturday morning with better chances for rain in the afternoon.  Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with the best chances occurring from 3 to 7 PM.  Likely strong straight line winds and small hail are the main threats besides lightning.  Expect around one quarter to one half inch of rain with this system.

Sunday will be warm again with a high over 70 degrees.  (We did break a record a second day in a row despite some cloud deck off and on today.)

Monday and Tuesday could get interesting with severe weather possibilities across Indiana. 

Fire Watch

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1213 AM EDT FRI APR 2 2010

...FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL RISE FRIDAY...

A STRONG AND DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER 
INDIANA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BOTH FAR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW DEW POINTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

1213 AM EDT FRI APR 2 2010

FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT 
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOT CERTAIN YET A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED 
FRIDAY. HOWEVER FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER 
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.