Info: 2010-2011 Composite Winter Outlook

I am 99% sure I will not be able to get my 2010-2011 Composite Winter Outlook completed by November 1 as I had hoped.  Just too much to do between now and then.  However I am pretty confident I can complete it by November 7th if not before.  This will include the much anticipated Snow Day forecast for Howard County Schools. 

So in the meantime, enjoy the weekend.  While it will be rather cool at night, the daytime should be sunny and near 60.  Not the ugly mess I was predicting a week or two ago. 

Tornado Watch Out/High Wind Warning/High Risk

Today looks to be huge...

Low Pressure Update...

3 PM (984mb)

4 PM (983mb)

5 PM (983mb)

6PM (983mn)

7PM (983mb)

8PM (983mb)

9PM (893mb)

10PM (982mb)

11PM (981mb)

12AM (980mb)

1 AM (976mb)

2 AM (977mb)

3 AM (975mb)

4 AM (974mb)

5 AM (973mb)

6 AM (972mb)

7 AM (970mb)

8AM (969mb)

Winds on Tuesday will be Historic...

I am not sure the general public is really aware of the widespread magnitude of wind event for tomorrow and lasting in Wednesday.  There is a very good chance the lowest pressure reading outside of a tropical system (hurricane) will be set tomorrow with this upcoming low pressure system. 

The current record is the 1978 blizzard with the Cleveland recording a low pressure of 958mb.  Almost every computer model had this bombing out below 960mb.  A few have went as low as 956mb.  The winds associated from such a deep low will be extremely strong.

While we are hundreds of miles away, we could easily see sustained winds in excess of 20 mph for 24 to 36 hours.  Gusts over 40 mph common. 

Closer to the low pressure, hurricane force winds are likely for 24+ hours. This will be one to remember...

High Wind Watch Issued for Tuesday

WINDS: WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NWS Link Here

High Winds on Tuesday

Tuesday could see a widespread wind event across our area.  A very deepening low pressure near the Canadian border in Minnesota and Wisconsin will produce a historic wind event.  High wind warnings are in effect for much the upper plains and great lakes area.  Locally, expect winds on Tuesday to be 20 to 30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH.  Some models have indicated stronger.

A squall line event is anticipated Tuesday afternoon will will move very fast given the strong winds.  Severe cells could be embedded in the line so be alert for warnings.  If something materializes, the speed of the storm will leave little time to take cover. 

I would anticipate some wind advisory to be issued for Tuesday. 

Some good news, Halloween is not trending quite as cool as expected.  Maybe 40's now for the low rather than 30's.

Interesting AFD from IWX

The northern Indiana National Weather Service Office has made a rather bullish AFD for next week...

TUE-WED...VERY INTERESTING WX SCENARIO IN THIS PERIOD AS A POTENT /LIKELY 200 KNOT/ UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A VERY STRONG SFC REFLECTION IN THE MIDWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. TRACK/SPEED/AND LL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN  THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM TO RUN TO RUN PER THESE DETAILS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF TREND BEING FOR A MUCH MORE NORTHERN BIASED TRACK. AM CONCERNED THAT THIS MAY BE   TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER JET WITH MUCH MORE INTENSE HEIGHT DIGGING PREFERRED AS STATED ABOVE IN LINE WITH  UKMET/GEM/AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MEAN GEFS. ANOTHER DETAIL THAT WILL PLAY A SIG ROLE IN THE STORM TRACK WILL BE THE DEGREE OF CAA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONGER CAA SUPPORTING A SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE STORM TRACK. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND HAVE ADDED THE NEW DAY 7 IN LINE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOL BIASED TEMPS. DID INCREASE POPS TUE IN THE WESTERN HALF WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND LL FORCING EXPECTED PER THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

It's about to get interesting...

After an excruciatingly long wait for the weather pattern to change, it looks like huge changes are right around the corner.

Let me begin by saying something I have mentioned a couple of times on twitter and Facebook - Halloween looks to be chilly and costumes should be sized accordingly to allow for winter coats.  Historical averages has 57/36 for the high and low and I think we will be a 10-12 degrees cooler.

Rain chances increase beginning this weekend and it will kick off what will be a wet winter.  (This drought will be a distant memory come spring 2011.)  The fall severe weather season will also be starting back up too.  While I am not very confident of our severe chances locally, some strong gust winds from an associated low pressure will make Tuesday miserable.

A similar set up produced a few late season tornadoes and lots of wind reports in 2001.

Jumping ahead to Halloween, you can see the cold shot of air over much of the area.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes early in November.  Not to give away the Winter Outlook scheduled for a November 1 release but Winter is going to come early this year.

Waiting on the weather...

I have not abandoned my weather blog.  It's just a combination of being really busy plus really boring weather.  I sure hope winter is not as mundane as summer.  While I have not been posting, I have been reading a lot of Winter Forecasts and thinking about my own composite forecast.  It should be a good one and I plan to have it out on November 1 or thereabouts.  Otherwise, just check back now and then to see if the weather has inspired me to write...