Before we talk about this winter, let’s take a brief look
back at last winter. The revisit is not
pleasant for me. There was a blown
forecast, some heartbreak misses, and a physical injury to top it all off.
I thought last winter would be mild and feature no significant
snow storms for Kokomo. For
temperatures, I had forecast a cold start to winter with a warming overall with
us finishing up with slightly above average for winter. While we did start quite cold in December,
January remained below average. February
did climb above normal but the damage was already done. We finished with more than 2 degrees below normal.
I completely fail with the snowfall. A top ten winter was never even in my wildest
dreams but I happened. I measured 34.3” with 6 trace amounts. While Kokomo is not an official reporting location
for climate data, we average about 24” or so.
Indianapolis recorded their 7th snowiest winter on
record. My prediction was slightly below average with
22 to 24”.
Where I totally failed was with my snow day forecast for the
county school. After several successful years
of predictions, I am not even sure I deserve credit for trying. I said there would be no snow days but
instead there were five missed days. However
there were just two instances to get these five days.
The first instance was January 11-12. The first day was not true snow day since
school started on time but they did dismiss very early. It was all planned and while I could have not
counted it, in other years I would have so I took the hit this time. It was just 4.5” overall but it was enough to
get the job done.
What could have been historic for Kokomo ended up being big disappointment
after it was over. Forecast models were
showing 2+ feet of snow. (Yeah,
feet!) While we knew that was overdone,
I did go with 10” plus a couple of inches of sleet. The forecasts for south of here were for an apocalyptic
ice storm. Many heeded the forecast and
bought generators. (I bought one.) This event unfolded with two waves. The first wave was significantly weaker than
expected and the second wave turned out to be a sleet storm. An inch of snow and three inches sleet was
what I decided to recorded for the event.
The mess did result in more three snow days for the season. It
also resulted in my wife falling on the sleet and breaking her arm.
That made for an unpleasant six weeks.
The one bright spot was the very unexpected snow on Saturday
February 5th. Six inches fell
and was the biggest snow of the season.
There were 18 measurable snow events staring on December 1st
and ending on February 25th.
Just a couple of trace amounts were measured after that date.
I do look back on last winter with some frustration. Many places got pounded with snow and we just
missed more than a few times.
So how does the winter of 2011 – 2012 look?
One word: Awesome!
For the record, I am not a trained meteorologist or skilled
in long range forecasting. I am
generally a short range forecaster but love winter. For months, I read and analyze many other forecasts
and weigh each one taking into their past verification records in addition to
their skill set in meteorology. Add in a
few sprinkles of my own here and there and we have my winter outlook. With that said, here we go…
The consensus seems to be cold and snowy for the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will be more volatile this winter compared to
last with deep intrusions of cold pushing down from Canada but then relaxing
with surges of warmth from the south. Many
forecasters have thought winter would start off significantly with December being
much below normal. The models have been
hinting at a big flip to winter in the last half of November so that call looks
like a good one.
January is where we will begin to experience the up and down
swings in temperatures. The swings in
temperatures will produce a variety of weather.
Unlike last winter were we avoided severe weather, the likelihood for severe
weather seems elevated for this winter.
February will see more moderation in temperatures but still
some cold shots.
A volatile season will also likely extend winter into
March. The past two winters didn’t
feature any measurable snow past the last week of February but I expect some snow
in March this year.
So how much snow will we see this winter?
A couple of very favorable snow tracks will be in play this
season. Alberta Clippers will be
responsible for frequent smaller snows of 2 to 4”. Occasionally a clipper can be an over
performer and surprise us with 5 to 6 plus inches. Clippers make light and fluffy snow. It is easy to shovel.
The best snows for Kokomo come from low pressure systems
which originate on the east side of Colorado.
These usually produce the heavy wet snow and have the accompanying winds
to cause considerable drifting. Expect
several of these tracks to be featured this winter.
December’s cold will help with several smaller snow
events. Normal snowfall of 7 to 8” seems
about right.
January snow will see increased chances for snow with the
last half of the month the most likely time frame for a significant snowstorm. Above average snow will 12 to 15” of
accumulating snow. That of course can go
up rapidly with a big system.
February will see just a handful of snows but the first week
will again be the best time for a bigger storm.
Snow will measure 8 to 10” for
the month.
March should see a good snowstorm this year with 4 to 6” of
accumulation.
By winters end, we could see nearly 40” of snow but will
likely be close to 35”. The previous two
winters were 32” and 34” and this once should fall right in line. One thing I do not see is an elevated threat
for ice.
Snow Days
The frequent clipper snows will produce many two hour delays. However the heavier wet snows will close
schools this winter. For the Howard
County Schools, I predict 4 weather related closings this winter.
That is the forecast for the Howard County winter and this
is a high confidence forecast. Enjoy.
