Nevermind...

The 120 hour snow track on the GFS is in the first image.  Compare this to CIPS top 5 for 120 hours.

(CIPS takes the current atmospheric conditions and finds the most similar conditions from past history.  These are five snow storms which actually happened and closely match our current conditions.)

This pretty much leads me to think we will not see much if any snow this weekend...

A Scary Sunday Night Ahead

Severe weather is a concern anytime but when it happens in the darkness, it is downright scary.  Tonight's storms will still be just a forecast even for those who stay up late to catch the 11 PM news.  Storms likely won't enter western Indiana until after midnight.  Kokomo until 1 to 2 AM and maybe even as late as 3 AM as the front has been slowing down all day.

Here is the latest HRRR forecast for 3 AM and you can see the line extending well up into Michigan.  Temperatures and dew points will have surged to near 50 locally and instability while not nearly as strong the southern portion of the state is more than ample for straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. 

Even with just an isolated tornado threat, the likelihood of a significant wind knocking down trees and power likes and weak structures is great.

Here is the latest SPC outlook.  Kokomo is in the slight risk area.  It has pretty much been that way all day.

There won't be much to update until later this evening.  We are just awaiting the storm...

For Monday, we have this to look forward to...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A 

WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST 

MONDAY.

* TIMING...700 AM TO 500 PM

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 

AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED 

OBJECTS  OUTSIDE. SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. 

DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY 

FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Tricky Friday Forecast

Today was a surprise.  While accumulating snow was expected, the 4 inches which fell was not.  Clippers can change track which this did and like we always hope, this one over performed.  Tomorrow could turn out the same.

The weather will be in your face the minute you step out the door on Friday morning.  It will be zero or even colder.  Easily the coldest night of the season.  Other than the cold, the morning should be uneventful.

Snow picks up in the afternoon and will be going as good as it gets by the dinner hour.  While this won't be as big of a snow as today, it will add to it.  There could be mixing issues.  Two systems are coming together and exactly where that converges will have big implications for they type of precipitation we receive.

Snow and mixed precipitation will continue through Saturday morning.  I can see Saturday morning be rather messy for anyone on the road until mid morning. 

Follow along tomorrow on Facebook as we see how this plays out.  I'm thinking a couple of inches of snow and a touch of freezing rain or sleet.

Oh, two hour delay for tomorrow.  Slick roads and cold temps make it seem logical.  :)

Temps Diving...

Remember Friday (or even Tuesday)?

Don't forget to join us on Facebook to share in the conversation.

A True Winter Storm

This should feel like a true winter storm.  Temperatures will plunge until reaching single digits be Saturday morning.  Strong winds will blow snow, reducing visibility and causing sub zero wind chills.

Just before 7 AM, you can see surface temperatures and the thickness line for snow crossing the border into the state.

Don't expect much relief until Monday either.  Hope your ready for a weekend of hunkering down.

[Updated] Snowstorm Alert!

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THUR TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

* TIMING.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT.SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THUR EVENING & FRIDAY  MORNING RUSH HRS.

* OTHER IMPACTS.BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DRIFTING & REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS.3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE N. COUNTIES/2 TO

 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CNTL PORTIONS OF CNTL IN/1 TO 3  INCHES ACROSS THE S. COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

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I must admit, the system up until yesterday seem rather anemic for moisture.  The surface low looked to move a bit faster to the east and the cold was a slower to arrive.  I didn't pay much attention to the system still thinking an inch or two drawn out over a 24 to 36 hour period would really be nothing more than a tease and nuisance.

However the models now seem to agree with a slow moving system with the cold catching up and a deepening sub 990 low pressure.  All of that combined will produce a pretty good snow maker for a large area of the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley.

That said, we still are on the southern edge and are dependent on the slow movement and wrap around moisture enhanced by Lake Michigan.  There is a lot which would go wrong.

Focusing on the positives, the modest amount of snow will be wind blown for a solid 24 to 30 hours.  This snow will be a high ratio snow so limited moisture 12:1 to 17:1 can still produce a fair amount of accumulations.  We won't have to deal with the heavy wet snow knowing down trees and power lines which is good news.

Yesterday, I made the off hand comment on the Facebook page that I didn't expect to see any cancellations or even delays.  That thinking has also changed.

So lets break it down...

At 7 AM on Thursday, we have a lull in precipitation and the rain/snow line is just moving into western Indiana.

By1 PM in the afternoon, snow is cranking as are the winds.  Over the next 6 hours, expect a couple of inches to fall and winds to become sustained near 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH.  I think any evening activities will be cancelled. 

Thursday evening has the rain/snow line through Ohio.  The slow moving low pressure continues to deepen as the wind driven snow makes conditions difficult.  We are also heading for real temperatures in the teen and wind chills below zero.  The 50's from recent will be just a memory.

The bulk of the snow will be over by mid morning on Friday.  The winds will remain strong with gust to near 30 MPH through the afternoon before easing up a bit.  Snow accumulations will be on the order of 4 to 6 inches with drifting.  I just don't see area schools being in session on Friday.

Some flurries could continue through the weekend and no rise above freezing until Monday.

For me, I'm preparing for a 4 day/3 might camping trip in Hoosier National Forest this weekend.  (The wife thinks I am nuts and she will be home nice and warm with the two dogs.)  I say bring it on!  :)

There could be more snow as early as Tuesday of next week too.