Debating...

I have debated since my 6 am review of the severe weather forecast and data on what to write.  The cloud deck has been keeping things cool and for me that leads me to believe there will not be a lot of help to get things fired up.  Many of my online weather enthusiasts also share in my concerns.  However the Storm Prediction Center is thinking otherwise.  Here is the portion relating to Indiana...

...IL/IND...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTUREIS ALSO INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG IN THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A
RE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...BOTH
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARMSECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MESOSCALE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS REGION IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
DISCRETE INITIATION.LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A RISKOF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD INTO IND.

So now what do I say. I do see a non severe warned cell coming alive west of Urbana but that should track to our north.  Some partial clearing is also taking place in central and southern IL. hhhmmm.....

I say stay tuned and in a couple more hours we should have a better idea how today might play out.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR KOKOMO, IN

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather today.

There is a 5% chance for tornadoes.
There is a 15% chance for signficant hail.
There is a 15% chance for damaging wind.

Change account settings at http://www.cellwarn.com

Stormy Wednesday

Another record today.  We almost hit 83.  Very warm but a cooling down is coming.  So are more storms on Wednesday.  Look for mostly a squall line scenario with a few strong cells embedded in the system.  I think the strongest portion of the system will stay south of I-70.  More details tomorrow morning...

Tuesday: Sunny & Windy

That is the headline for Tuesday.  Strong winds will come from the southwest all day bring warm temperatures.  Gusts could be near 40 MPH with sustained winds near 20 MPH.  A minimal threat from severe weather for Tuesday over our area.  A return to severe weather looks likely for Wednesday.

Severe Weather Threat...

The bigger threat for severe weather is for an area south of I-70 were a tornado watch has been issued thru midnight.  Some severe weather could reach our area as well.

Streaming Video: I might be out streaming some video from my cell phone.  You can see the video here if I am out storm spotting...

http://qik.com/kokomoweather

Stormy Week Ahead...

Looks like Spring Break for Howard County schools will include a bit of storminess.  Today's chances for severe weather in Indiana are mainly south of I-70 but will move north as we approach evening.  Currently temperatures and dew points are 10 to 12 degrees warmer in southern Indiana versus here.  However we are warming up nicely and should continue to do so under mainly clear skies.  Our primary threat today would be from wind and hail.  Winds are very unidirectional across all of the area so the threat from tornadoes are minimal. 

A better severe weather threat looks likely for Wednesday and into Thursday.

Storms Possible Overnight

There is a line of thunderstorms draped from Chicago/NW Indiana to St. Louis.  Occasional hail, wind, and tornado warnings have been associated with this system.  It should be arrive sometime after 1 AM tonight.  An isolated warning is possible. 

Some Odds & Ends...

The winter forecast still is producing results.  I mentioned there would be an early and warm spring with March being above normal.  You can see we were 3 to 6 degrees above normal for the month.  Of course record temperatures were reached for the first two days of April with 80+ was achieved both days.

My prediction of an early severe weather season is busting.  However the consensus from many severe weather experts is that the season will be delayed and will then shift east.  You can read the Accuweather forecast here.

Back to winter for a second and some personal horn tooting, I participated in a snow forecast contest that covered an area from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and a bit of Canada.  In a straight up comparison of snow totals forecast versus actual, I finished fourth.  I was 88.2 inches too much but a just 6 inches better would have given me second place.  No professional meteorologist finished higher. 

My overall forecast error of individual locations put me in first place and some complex formula that is supposed to really take into account a combination of many factors showing true forecasting skill had me finish in third overall.  As I said to some fellow contestants, not bad for wild guesses.  My biggest downfall was Ottawa and Toronto Canada which has near record low snowfall.  Just over 60 inches of my 88 inch error can be attributed to these two locations. 

Severe weather looks to be active this week.  I think Indiana will see some bits and pieces from the bigger show out to our west.  West central and northern Illinois looks to be a good battleground right now.  You can see today, Monday, and Tuesday all have slight risk factors.  I am sure I will be updating more about this as the week goes on.

Saturday Storms

Look for scattered rain on Saturday morning with better chances for rain in the afternoon.  Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with the best chances occurring from 3 to 7 PM.  Likely strong straight line winds and small hail are the main threats besides lightning.  Expect around one quarter to one half inch of rain with this system.

Sunday will be warm again with a high over 70 degrees.  (We did break a record a second day in a row despite some cloud deck off and on today.)

Monday and Tuesday could get interesting with severe weather possibilities across Indiana. 

Fire Watch

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1213 AM EDT FRI APR 2 2010

...FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL RISE FRIDAY...

A STRONG AND DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER 
INDIANA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BOTH FAR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW DEW POINTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

1213 AM EDT FRI APR 2 2010

FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT 
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOT CERTAIN YET A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED 
FRIDAY. HOWEVER FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER 
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.