Snow Update (including my final call)

This is a tough forecast for several reasons. The recent history of busted forecasts due to the trend of storms going to the northwest and dry slot weigh on everyone’s mind. We also had a lot of marginal temperatures causing mixing issues with sleet, freezing rain/ice, and rain. This set up is a little different however.

We have cold temperatures in place and they will remain so no mixing issues this time. (There could be mixing issues along the Ohio River.) If there was a northwest trend with this storm, we actually would be better off since the heavy snow bands are south and east of us.

The dry slot concern does remain. The storm is made up of two systems merging together over central Illinois and Indiana. Most of the precipitation is associated storm to our southwest coming up from Missouri. There is another system moving in from Iowa. The two systems could create an area of little precipitation which looks to track right across Lafayette to Kokomo.

The good news is the precipitation ratios will be very good with this storm so a little will go a long way.

My forecast for Howard County and Kokomo is 2-3 inches of the white stuff tapering to flurries by 9 AM Tuesday morning. Schools would likely be on a 2 hour delay.

If you are heading south, expect some great accumulations from Indianapolis on south. Columbus to Seymour could see 8-10 inches.

The NWS has not updated its map and is calling for total accumulations of 3-5 inches for Howard County.

One final note: There is a potential storm for the upcoming weekend (Friday thru Sunday). The details are very sketchy but it is something to look at considering many people will be traveling north for Girls Basketball Regionals on Saturday. Also of note is I will be without Internet access for most of Friday into Sunday morning while on a trip. Details on all that later…

Snow Update

This snow storm looks good for us in the aspect we should not see any mixing with sleet or ice. Cold air is in place and will remain for the entire event. The ratios of snow should also be very good with 15 to 1 very likely. The Indianapolis NWS has issued a snow map and thinks the better accumulations snow will be south of our location.

A little after noon today I will do a lunch update with my forecast for snow and my prediction for area schools. *grin*

Latest Model Runs

Not a lot of change with the latest model runs or nothing that looks really good or really bad. I will let the experts digest the data and give some updates in the morning.

I would like to point out that none of the NWS offices has issued a snow map for the upcoming event. There is one weather map from Indiana Weather Online which has us in the sweet spot for 3-6 inches.

Question on the snow track...

Remember the last time we had a good snow predicted and we busted big? It could happen again. Even the NWS office in Indianapolis reminds us of that with these quotes.

"Remember, the track of the storm is still quite uncertain at this time. Any change in the projected track of the storm will have significant impact on the type and amounts of precipitation received at your location."

"AS FOR AMOUNTS...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOW 10+ INCHES IN THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL NOT GO THIS HIGH YET FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WILL INCLUDE ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN JUST TOO POOR REGARDING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THIS WINTER...AND AM HOPING THAT PERHAPS FURTHER RUNS WILL LET US BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS STORM."

Tomorrow will bring us closer to deciding the track of the low and where the storm will go but last time we went right up to the event and got it wrong. I am not making any call on this storm today and will issue my forecast tomorrow around lunch.

Current HPC Snow Probability

They HPC likes our chances for 4 inches of snow.

Cold & Wind Chill Advosory Remains - Winter Storm Watch For Upcoming Snow

The cold weather remains and the existing wind chill advisory remain in effect through 4 AM Monday.

The NWS has also issue a Winter Storm Watch for Monday evening through Tuesday. The models have been showing a more constant pattern for a snow storm dropping 6+ inches of snow. This storm has been around for a while but temperatures were forecast the 40's and with rain as the precipitation.

The start of the week has been trending colder and now snow seems likely for us with some mixing with sleet in the southern part of Indiana.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Very Cold & Serious Wind Chill

The NWS has a Wind Chill Advisory in effect thru 1 PM Sunday. Single digit temperatures with minus 20 wind chills or more. It remains cold on Sunday with a high just breaking double digits. A below zero temperature is forcast for Sunday night.

Snow seems likely Monday night with a couple of inches. Mixing is still possible bringing sleet and rain. A slight temperature change could deliver an all rain solution to our area as well. Forecasting this will not be simple and could likely change with each model run.

Valentine's Day Repeat

This morning on WZWZ, Allan James very casually mentioned something brewing for Valentine's Day on the weather front and hinted that it might be snow. Last's years Valentines Day blizzard was brought up in the conversation with news personality Elise Shrock.

I just don't see any significant snow next week unless it might be Friday. Right now it seems pretty unlikely.

It be a warmer day today but look for a cold end to the weekend.

Crazy Weather Models...

The snow is gone again. Oh well...

Which Map Is Right?

Or better yet, which map is even close? Here are 2 maps for the same time from the same (GFS) forecast model from 2 runs 6 hours apart. One shows no precipitation and cold across Indiana. The second shows a snow/rain mix with the state split north/south. I wonder which is closer...

(Maps are for 1 AM on 2/14/2008)