Severe Threat Minimized For Tonight

It looks like a bust for severe weather across Indiana and Illinois. A few warnings were issued in Illinois but things never quite came together for a large scale severe weather threat. Even the areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas that saw severe weather off and on all day never really saw a significant outbreak.

It does looks like some non-severe thunderstorms will pass through in the overnight and rain looks to hand around well past midnight but I doubt any warning will be issued unless they are flood related.

Tuesday will be cooler and Wednesday will be the best day with sunshine. Thursday and Friday being another possible severe weather threat and rain of course. I am sure the farmers are starting to get a little nervous about so much wet weather. I know I would be at this point.

The Sun Is Out!

For a brief while the sun is shining and may start to get a few things going. The temperature has jumped into the 60's and while I was a little off on my call of yesterday about the warm front tornado threat, the SPC is also showing come concern with a new MCD issued.

Compare with this map I drew yesterday. Remarkably similar.

Cloud Deck Prohibiting Storms

It looks like the widespread cloud deck across Illinois and Indiana is not allowing initiation of thunderstorms. There is severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

No change to the slight risk areas but the moderate risk did creep somewhat north and east a bit.

We are at 57 currently so we may well get our 3rd 60 degree day of 2008.

Severe Weather Likely Tonight

The NWS has is very near the slight risk to start off the day. I suspect with the updated outlooks today that it might shift over us ever so slightly. Maybe not. The moderate risk is a little further south than I expected.


Our area should see the most severe weather in the late evening and overnight. It would be an excellent day to pick up a weather radio if you didn't have one since this looks to be a long duration event and I doubt anyone will be awake all night monitoring television or radio. The NWS as asked spotters to be available from 9 PM to 4 AM. (That will make for a long day.)

The composite radar page is now active. - http://kokomo-weather.com/radar.htm

You can see the large number of lightning strikes and when Oklahoma saw the severe weather remain active all night with warning after warning. Upper Iowa and lower Minnesota are receiving heavy snow at the rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

Hook Echo Tonight

A classic hook echo on an after dark storm in Oklahoma tonight.

[Update #2] Severe Weather Forecast (Sunday - Tuesday)

Today started out a little rocky but died down before lunch. However I would not be the least bit surprised to see an evening of thunderstorms across Texas and Oklahoma. Monday looks rather ominous with a very large area of slight risk stretching into western Indiana. Missouri has the potential to be a moderate risk tomorrow.

A somewhat overlook area of concern is the northern Illinois area highlighted in pink below. Severe potential associated with warm fronts can be difficult to understand and reliably predict. However some notable severe weather outbreaks have been associated with a warm front including the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak which devastated many places in Indiana.

For our area on Monday, expect some isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. This activity will in the evening and after dark which seems to happen a lot in Indiana. Nothing is more fun than trying to spot severe weather in the dark.

[Update #1] Severe Weather Forecast (Sunday - Tuesday)

Last evening after I posted thing got fired up in Texas and Arkansas in the overnight. Mainly hail and some wind damage reports. Today already is busy with thunderstorm warnings Texas and Louisiana. You can see slight risk areas over the next 2 days do not include Indiana. We are under a general risk however and I would anticipate some thunderstorms today in fact.

Monday evening and overnight will be our best time for Thunderstorms and rain. There could be some lingering pockets of Thunderstorms remaining into Tuesday. The passing cold front might be a little slower than current forecast models are showing.

We also might be under the severe weather gun metaphorically speaking later in the week too.

Severe Weather Forecast (Sunday - Tuesday)

It looks to an active couple of days coming up starting with Sunday. Things will happen Sunday in the Texas Panhandle, across Oklahoma and into Kansas and possible a little more north and east. Monday will bring severe weather closer with parts of Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois being in the thick of things. Kentucky and Indiana will also see some possible severe weather.

Things for our area will be in the evening into the overnight. At this point it doesn't look like a major outbreak for us but things can always change. Northern Illinois and northwest Indiana seem to be a better place for severe weather.

The good news is Monday should break 60 for only the third time this year and the rain over the next three days will remain at a reasonable amount of 1 inch or so.

More updates tomorrow as things begin to happen and as information for our area become more clear.

Severe Weather & 70 degrees

We have not reached 70 degrees yet in 2008! Also, I see any forecast thru next week showing temperatures even into the 60's for Kokomo. Our only days recorded above 60 were January 6th and 7th. Last year we had already seen an 80 degree day by now. This weather pattern is very depressing.

Today will remain cool but no precipitation should fall. Saturday looks to be sunny but still chilly. Sunday and Monday bring in a serious rain threat potential of several inches across an area of the county already saturated with rain and snow melt. Look for flooding conditions to remain for many people.

The rain threat also carries with it the potential for severe weather. We are at the top of the Day 4 risk area. That is mainly for Monday afternoon into the overnight hours. I will watch for additional information and should have a better idea on the specifics starting on Sunday afternoon one the updated Day 2 forecast is presented by the SPC.

Zonal Jet Stream Divides Country

The jet stream has been in a zonal flow across the mid section of the country for several days now. The cold weather has been north with wamer temps south. It should move a little bit north the first of next week.