Hope For Snow Lovers...

Without going into detail, we are starting to see a west trend to the storm. While this won't build to superstorm potential, we could get some snow. Not unthinkable at this point for accumulating snow to be very possible. While not the monster storm we had hoped, not bad given we were expecting a complete miss just 12 hours ago.

No Mid Day Miracle...

So we will remain quiet for a while and waste the cold. The poor east cost snow lovers have seen their storm come and go. The latest trends do show it trending weaker and out to sea. You can see the difference between the run six hours ago (6z) and the run just completed (12z).

East Coast Track

The big snow storm looks to track up the east coast. The I-95 cities from Washington, DC/Baltimore to Philly, New York, and Boston are not trying to sort out the details between a great storm, rain, or a near miss. I hope they get to enjoy it and are not missed.

For us, we will have to deal with continued cold temperatures some moderate winds causing blowing and drifting. No warm up looks to be in our future. Also the forecast models show a relatively quiet pattern for us now that the upcoming storm threat is a far wide right miss.

We do have a few chances for light precipitation and given some of the poor road conditions, it should make for slick conditions. The winds also looks to remain on the moderate to strong side which will continue to drift over roads.

Looking Bleak...

It isn't looking good for us who want to get a storm. Unless there is a miracle with tomorrow's mid day run, we can count on no big superstorm.

No Storm...

Well, everyone seems pretty confident that the big storm won't be coming our way anytime soon. I have not had a chance to give anything a careful review so I won't completely abandon ship but I think the ship might be taking on water.

I will officially call it dead after the middle of the day runs tomorrow.

Mid Day Update

The storm still looks very good but clearly is way, way, way east of us to really do anything. Some of the weather fans in the Ohio Valley & Upper Great Lakes are jumping off the storm and giving up.

Just a reminder that 90 hours before the first phase of this weeks storm, the models had the whole thing going from the Southwest to the Middle Atlantic and right out to sea. Data is not very well sampled way out in a Pacific so models likely still don't have a handle on it.

Patience will be key waiting for the models to come into agreement.

Possible Storm Update...

The first model, the NAM, has completed its run. It is short range only going to 84 hours which is 7 AM Monday morning. It shows a nice move west for the storm and would clearly hit Indiana with several inches of snow across our area.

Edit to Add at 11:30: I didn't think I needed another blog entry for the GFS model run. It seems there are some hideous discrepancies in the run. The upper air charts and the surface charts don't even match up with any meteorology logic. That happens sometimes when the models has so much data/energy it just spits out garbage. No point in staying up later for the finish or more refined data.

Some light snow accumulations possible after 4 AM with the passing with the cold front.

FYI - Confidence very high in a 2 hour delay for area schools for Friday.

Good Morning...

The single digit temperatures bottomed out just before midnight and continues to rise. Today will warm up into the twenties but return to colder temperatures for the overnights and Friday.

Snow talk still abounds with the Monday-Tuesday storm. Nothing decided yet on the track...

Also, I mentioned last night the sleepless nights that precede snow for those watch for snow. The numerous statewide school delays and closings reminded me to give a tip of the hat to school administrators who get up early to drive routes and make the all critical call. They are backed up by school personnel which clear parking lots and sidewalks. Another early and thankless task making for a lack of sleep after the storm arrives.

More Sleepless Nights...

That's what happens when there is a snow storm brewing. Model runs and secondary maps and data start to come in around 10 PM and don't really finish until 1 AM. (This pattern repeats at 10 AM to 1 PM.)

I guess this weeks storm had everyone attention and there had not been much discussion or looking at forecast models for next week. Now that things have generally calmed down, everyone is talking about the huge potential for next week. I don't mean some casual chatter but some serious review and comparisons to other historic events. In fact this past storm could play a significant factor in amplifying the upcoming storm.

Currently, we are not in the primary path. However we also were not in the primary path for this storm a week ago. The thinking of those in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes right now is that not being in the bullseye this far out is a good thing. We will let this beast of a storm come to us. Hopefully it will come far enough to be historic for us.

Night all and enjoy what should be a two hour delay for county schools on Thursday.

Overnight Cold / Next Weeks Snow Storm

I guess I was so focused on the snow I missed the downward spiral of temperatures for tonight. An overnight low near zero plus 10 MPH winds will make for a bitter cold windchill. I think this combined with poor road conditions will generate a two hour delay for area schools.

As for the storm next week, the NWS office in Indianapolis made this comment about it in the afternoon AFD (Area Forecast Discussion)...

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A BIG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WHAT IS IN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS BASICALLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT INDIANA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. BUT THE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SO IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER IF THIS LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INSTEAD IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

The NWS Office in northern Indiana had this to say in their AFD...

AS SUGGESTED BY HPC THIS MORNING...THIS EVOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN. RIGHT NOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD STILL MISS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TO THE EAST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SHSN LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL RECENT TRENDS AND THE PROPENSITY THIS SEASON FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN STORM TRACK WITH TIME...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.