Cold Days Ahead...

It looks like high pressure will move in and clear our the region allowing for overnight cooling. Sunday night will be single digits followed by Monday night being slightly warmer with a low near 10. Tuesday finally starts the warming trend with 50's be end of the week.

It's Official

Kokomo, Indiana is Mother Nature's official screw zone for snow. It looks like we will be winding down winter with no big snow (or even minor snow) on any of the medium range forecast models. After this weekends cold shot, a warming trend with commence bring more seasonal temperatures in the 40's and then 50's be next weekend.

Our seasonal total seems to be around 12" or so if my memory serves correctly. That would be even less of the late January storm didn't over produce for Howard County dropping 6 to 7 inches of snow.

I declared Kokomo the official screw zone (and Lafayette the honorary screw screw zone) after watching storms go north and south of us. Indianapolis is either at or slightly above their seasonal average. I decided to make the announcement today when it looks like huge imapct snow will cover the south, middle Atlantic state and costal New England, all snow starved regions.

NYC to Beantown could see 10-12"+ from this beauty. We just get to enjoy (not!) the cold being dragged out of Canada by the deep trough.

At this point I am ready to toss in the towel and say bring on spring and warm weather. I wouldn't mind a few 70 degree days in our forecast.

One thing that bears watching right now is the early build up of heat in the Southwest. Arizona and Southern California has been rather warm this past week with 90's for some areas. At some point that energy will get ejected in the Plain States/Midwest/Ohio Valley and could make for some interesting weather.

Rain and Possible Thunderstorms...

It looks like Thursday will be wet for much of the day. Rain chances throughout the daytime increasing to 100% by evening. Afternoon thunderstorms with an increasing potential after 8 PM pose a very slight risk for severe weather as the cold front overtakes the state.

The better severe potential looks to be southeast of our area.

After a couple of warm days, the temperatures will trend back down to winter like and by early next week, expect teens overnight. No snow/precipitation potential after the system moves out during the overnight Thursday. Friday looks to be windy behind the cold front with gust near 30 MPH.

Upcoming Week...

It looks like a quiet start to the work week with a gradual warming trend toward the weeks end. Rain near the end of the week and possible accumulating snow Saturday but we will need to wait before we get excited about it.

I think the most noticeable think showing up on the models for the next two week are no signs of an early spring warm up. This miserable and lackluster winter continues to hang on for a bit longer.

Don't get excited...

Yes, the snow is coming down fast and furious but it won't last but a few hours and with the temperatures several degrees above freezing, it won't pile up. :(

Nothing Good To Report...

Someone earlier today made a great analogy regarding the models showing snow for days and then at the last minute coming up with a different solution...

It's just like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Lucy promises she won't pull it away this time but then she does just like every other time before.


The models backed off on the moisture or moved north. The warm air moved north and will now cause us mixing issues on Saturday. Our air is fairly dry at this point. We are at 76% humidity with a 15 degree dew point. Even when it does start snowing which seems to be going slower than expected, it will take a bit of time to get the lower atmosphere saturated.

I will stand by my first call of 3-4" but I also know I will likely bust high. Just days ago I was hoping to bust low. There are some subtle differences in what was forecast and what is currently happening but I cannot makes heads or tails out of it and predict what will happen. Given I don't expect or see anyone else expecting some overnight magic from these differences, I am not going to wait out the late arrival of the snow.

Have a great night and let's see what the morning brings.

Oh, did I mention there might be another accumulating snow for the end of next week? Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away this time.

Full Update Later But...

Looks like snow totals will be trending down and rain and/or a dry slot will be a problem too. I am on the road but will provide a full update later tonight after I have a chance to better analyze things.

As you can guess, don't expect any advisory from the NWS given the lesser totals.

NAM & GFS Solutions...

Here are the two different solutions from the latest (6z) run of the GFS and NAM. It is pretty obvious the NAM (bottom image) would really make this a non event for central Indiana. of course the GFS (top image) also doesn't give us much wiggle room.

Snow On Track...

The snow is on track but which track remains to be seen. The NAM really has a northerly track and gives us the mother of all dry slots. Ugh! At least the NWS says thinks it is a bit too aggressive with its solution and is not giving it full credence. As you can see below, the NWS has us for a 3" accumulation and I still like my 3-4" first call from Tuesday. (Remember you heard it here first!)

If the NAM trends back and the other models stay on track, we could see a snow advisory issued after the 12z runs this morning. It will be close. (If everything else makes a jump to follow the NAM then snow lovers will be jumping from ledges around here. It will be ugly and disappointing to say the least.)

Pick Your Posion...

So we have a big question mark with the models. You can choose the NAM which has more juice and is a bit north or you can choose the GFS which is broader is scope and south but not as much precipitation and a much better chance for dry slot issues cutting back on our snow.

Quite a problem and I guess I will let the Euro which runs in a couple of hours and the professional forecasters sort it out and surprise me in the morning. (I guess if it was easy, anyone could do it. *grin*)