Snow Still Coming...

After the early morning scare with the models showing a decline is an already moisture starved system, things are back on track for our Thursday snow. As you likely have heard if you have caught any TV meteorologist, there wont be any huge snow from the system.

However we are looking good with the ratios and I think a call of 2-4" seems solid for Thursday into Friday. Now I have a good feeling about a snow day delay for Friday but with the light fluffy nature of the snow, I don't have much confidence in full snow day for Friday.

Expect a late update but I did want to make sure my early call for 2-4" was out there and people didn't think I had given up on the system.

Moisture Drying Up

After my previous post outlining a decent (not historic) hit of snow for the end of the week, the latest models show a shift north and less moisture. A shift north means less chance for Gulf moisture being injected into the system and this thing taking off and of course less mositure being brought in with the system means less snow. Not planning to panic just yet but already a bit discouraged by the latest developments.

However the National Weather Service in Indianapolis offers some encouraging words...

STILL USING ABOUT A 18 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEAR LIKELY AROUND THURSDAY. BITTER COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

Breaking Down the Snow and Cold...

If we had a word list for the upcoming week, it would be snow and cold. The good news is we are going to be a bit warmer the next few day as compared to the previous few days. Tonight should be the last single digit lows until the end of the week. Still no highs above the middle 20's all week. That means there will be no borderline temperatures and the associated mixing issues we so many times have to worry about.

This is going to be a tough week for school administrators and athletic directors who have to make decisions regarding school delays and closing and the postponement or cancellation of athletic events. (This week is the Howard County Girls Basketball Tournament.) I say a tough week due to the timing of the snow and the borderline amounts for school closings.

Lets break down the snow...

Some lake effect snow will continue and there could be as much as a fresh inch by Tuesday morning. With an overnight low near 10, I doubt there will be any problem with school on Tuesday. Wednesday will be a dry day so another day with everything continuing as scheduled.

Thursday becomes a real mess...

I want to say I am pretty excited to have called this storm system just a couple of days after Christmas. However I was hoping it would have cranked up to be a monster system but instead it look more like a widespread system which will deliver accumulating snow for many including those who have missed out on much snow so far. (We have 8.5 inches locally already which isn't bad considering we have not had a significant system hit our area.)

Things will just be getting started Thursday morning. Unless the system speeds up, I don't see any delay for schools at this time. (Timing will be everything for Thursday morning's call.) As the day progresses, snow will fall at a moderate rate through noon with a high rate in the afternoon to early evening. School activities will likely be called off for Thursday evening but the question is does school dismiss early? Tough call but 2-3 inches of fluffy snow is likely by the time dismisses. One thing which might help are the winds don't seem to be much of a factor for this storm.

By Friday morning, snow will begin winding down by noon and all but complete by Friday evening. No matter what happens, my confidence for a school delay on Friday is high. Friday night will bring back the deep freeze with single digit lows and highs in the middle teens for the weekend.

One positive for now is the snow ratios look to be high. Not the typical 10:1 ratio which is common but more of a 15:1 to 20:1 ratio with some near 30:1 possible someplace with the system. Also the heaviest snow is a bit south and things many times do sneak north so that would be good for us.

I don't see any chance for a miss with this storm.

Finally I think the door is still open if only slightly for the moisture train to open up from the Gulf and to make this one a decent 6 to 10+ inch plus storm. However I think 4 inches is not an unreasonable call at this time but 2 to 4 inches seems like the safe call this far out.

I do wish a good surface low would form before the system passes to our east. That could make a world of difference for everyone.

Overnight Deep Freeze

Temperatures are continuing to fall. We are already at three degrees and I anticipate near zero if not below by morning. Be sure and bundle up for church and warm up car if it is parked outside.

Still Watching Next Week...

I did mention it on December 27th that I liked the end of next week for a storm and I am still on board with that idea. I am a tiny bit concerned we just get a small portion of the storm before it becomes another epic monster out east but I think it might come west a bit which would help. We just need some ridging in the southeast so the storms are driven more our way.

Review...

We need to take some time to review 2009 and the 09-10 Winter Outlook. Let's start with my winter outlook...

Like so many, I haven't done so well with my forecast. But I also am not completely off base either. For temperatures, I had said November and December would be warm. I had even said there would be a few days where coats wouldn't be needed in December. That didn't happen but it was rather warm in late November where it was warm enough to wear shorts and leave the coat at home. Only three days in December made it to 50 or above.

November was warmer than normal but December ended up colder. That said I think I was close to the mark. The prediction of a deep cold snap January does seem on target. No significant warm up in sight.



The precipitation faucet was shut off in November after several very wet months. November was very dry. However December got a bit wetter but the overall average is below normal. I am still thinking we are on track for wetter overall and my thought that some of the precipitation would be rain have unfortunately correct. More snow would have been nicer.




The snowfall for December in Kokomo is 8.5 inches which isn't bad considering we have not had a significant storm system produce snow over our area. The El Niño has blown a lot of snow forecasts with wild and wacky snow systems producing historic amounts of snow for the Eastern Seaboard and Upper Slain states and Western Great Lakes. The Ohio Valley however has been missed by the big systems. Hopefully our time will come...

2009: A Look Back

The year was wetter and cooler overall. I don't recall many days over 90 degrees this past summer. Not much severe weather locally and even nationally the number of tornadoes is down from previous seasons. Overall we the generally poor snow amounts in Jan-Feb and then December there isn't much to remember. Overall 2009 was a very mundane year of weather.



We also need to take a look back at the previous decade and I will do that in later post.

Busted Forecast & Colder

I forgot to post it here but shared it with my twitter followers that I was fairly certain the Wednesday into Thursday snow would drop 2 to 4 inches. There were some promising reports out from Peoria Illinois to our west which seemed to support my forecast. Well, it didn't even come close in our area. The heavier snow bands went south with places such as Crawfordsville receiving 3 inches. We had a trace to one tenth of an inch. What snow we did receive ran into a large pocket of dry air and the falling white stuff never hit the ground.

We look to have some melting and compacting of the snow today before we user in much colder temperatures. The weekend will see highs in the low to middle teens with single digit lows. Some lake effect snow could reach as far south as us this weekend too bring just light accumulations. Up near Lake Michigan the snow totals could surpass two feet over the next few days.

Speaking of two feet, the crazy talk I mentioned a few posts ago two to four feet of synoptic snow over a wide portions of the eastern US turned out to be just that. I guess with three memorable if not historic snows in a row, it just seems plausible the pattern and storm which the models kept showing could actually be true. Now the storm will be a more traditional set up over just the upper New England states. (VT, NH, ME) Six plus inches with howling winds will produce sometimes fun wintry conditions for them.

No surprises in the medium to long range for us other than it will remain cold and many nuisance dustings (yes, dustings) are likely. No accumulations of more than an inch here or there is showing up currently. I have held out hope the end of next week would produce a big storm but it doesn't seem as likely as we are drawing closer and it hasn't even shown any solutions which give us a big snow for several model runs. Oh well...

Revised Snow Total

After looking at the reports from the cooperative observers and amateur radio operators to the NWS, I will revise my total for the Saturday night & Sunday storm at 3.5 inches. (I had initially reported 4 inches so I was pretty close.)

Looks like it is going to remain cold. Also looks like we are on the western edge of some lake effect snow for the next few days. Accumulations look to be 1/2 an inch to an inch per day through the weekend.

Sunday Wrap Up & Our Future...

Today was a great surprise snow. Everybody had to keep raising their forecast snow amounts. It started yesterday as the Chicago area received amounts from 5 to nearly 12 inches. It has been difficult for me to have a definitive total but I think I will call it at 4 inches until I hear some additional reports into the NWS tomorrow. (It is never easy to get a measurement at my house.)

Both the short range and long range look to remain cold and volatile with snow chances coming every few days. This week will deliver some snow Wednesday into the weekend. This will likely be a long duration event with a little bit of snow coming each and every day. No real significant accumulations but a couple of inches seems probable right now. A later update will give a more accurate total.

What has my interest comes not this week but around the end of next week. I have seen several runs of the long range GFS showing a nice storm. While it hasn't shown historic snows like so many have seen, a nice 4 to 6 inch system with blowing seems to be floating around our area.

I think it is going to be interesting weather over the next two to three weeks.

Winter Weather Advisory

Looks like an additional two to three inches likely this afternoon. It would be a good time to stay home and watch the Colts.

More details here - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ind&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory