90 degree days

I wished the 90 degree days were behind us as the pattern looks to have relaxed a small amount.  However I think this is only temporary. 

So far the Kokomo Airport has recorded 17 days of 90 or above.  Lafayette is showing 25 and like us most came in July and August. 

For us, the dates are

5-30
6-18
7-4
7-6
7-7
7-8
7-14
7-15
7-23
7-24
7-28
8-4
8-9
8-10
8-11
8-12
8-15

I think after a brief cool down next week, we probably will heat up again.  Look for a very warm Labor Day.

Quite a storm...

As I prepare for the opening of another school year, things are always a bit hectic getting ready for the return of teachers and faculty.  It has keep me from doing much writing about the weather. 

The main weather story has been the heat.  It has been a long time since we had this many days with temperatures over 90.  We are running a good 3 to 4 degrees above normal since May 1st.  It has been a good 10 years since we have seen a good hot summer like this one.

Today saw a pretty good storm system blow through this morning.  Unfortunately I was tied up at work and unable to follow it.  However this evening while showing some out of town relatives the city, I noticed several downed trees and lots of limbs and leaves everywhere.  One house locally in the Devon Woods area lot a complete tree and another was cutting up one that crashed into the house and knock off some gutter.

A lot of the home around Howard County lost power and I saw Duke still out doing repairs.  At 9:30, 450 customers are still shown without power.  Shelby County has about the same amount of customers.

This weekend could deliver some additional thunderstorms but it is too early to tell the impact they will have locally.  Sunday should begin the cool down.  Of course temps will still be in the 80's and don't think we are done with the hot temps.  They will a few more warm spells on the horizon.   Hopefully they won't be as bad as this stretch however.

Great Weather Ahead...

After some sticky weather and strong/severe thunderstorms across the area, we can finally catch our breath and put our thoughts elsewhere.  There has been a lot of rain the past 24 hours across Howard County.  Anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 inches already for August.

Thursday will be a transition day where there are some lingering showers moving out in the morning and humidity levels coming down to much more tolerable levels.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look to be beautiful.  Warm but not stifling hot, manageable humidity levels and no threats from rain or storms. 

It is perfect opening weekend weather for the Indiana State Fair!

Don't get too used to it however.  The warm pattern returns early next week and with it the chance for rain and severe weather.  The month of August looks to have long stretches of warmth.  Yes, August is usually hot but this will be hotter than usual.

Hopefully the warm weather now will reap some benefits come winter with snow, lots and lots of snow.  Recently I have been reading several of the preliminary winter forecasts from both weather enthusiasts like me and the pros.  A common theme seems to have the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with above average snowfall.  You know I love that!  :)

I want to take a minute to acknowledge a weather enthusiast Matt G. with his preliminary winter forecast.  Matt is over near Noblesville so his weather pattern is our weather pattern.  Take a moment and give his blog a read - http://rockster11.wordpress.com/

For my new readers and followers, my own winter forecast if officially released on November 1 and includes the ever popular Snow Day prediction for Howard County Schools.  That always is a lot of fun.

Enjoy the weekend and I'll be back soon.

Wednesday Storms

The outflow boundary is out running the main system so I expect things to settle down shortly.  I did have a report of four large 80 to 100' trees fall about a mile east of Galveston.

A day of *WOW* weather...

Today was a *WOW* weather day. You might not be thinking that but we have an impressive dewpoint or 80 degrees at nearly 11 PM at night. After flirting with 80+ just after lunch, it went above and stayed at 3:25 this afternoon.

Another *WOW* has been the severe weather potential. It has been a powder-keg situation with CAPE values over 7000 and still is but there has been no fuse to get it going. The cap which inhibits storm initiation has been stout all day. Nothing has broken the cap all day so we sit here with warm weather and not much else to talk about.

Wednesday will be a hot one. The GFS continues to deliver very warm temps into the middle of August. The only good news is the weekend looks to moderate with middle 80's and lower humidity. If you are considering a trip to the state fair, this would be the weekend. It should be perfect.

For Summer Lovers...

The above average summer temps continue.  No relief in sight.  The 6 to 10, 8 to 14, one month and three month outlooks all have large portions of the US including Indiana with above average temperatures.  I keep seeing some occasional triple digit temperatures popping up on the 16 day forecasts of the GFS.

I do not believe those will happen but plenty of middle ninety degree temperatures look likely.  The only think which might keep temperatures down would be some occasional thunderstorms moving through the area.

I am thinking the Indiana State Fair will be one of the warmest on record.  Take care if attending and be extra vigilant if you have animals down there.

These maps show the above average temperature departures we have experienced the past month and three months.

The NWS in Indianapolis reports July is the warmest since July 1999. 

Hope you like it hot...

If you don't like hot weather, then you are not going to like Friday and Saturday.  A heat advisory has been issued for Friday afternoon.  Temperatures in the low 90s with the heat index over 100+ degrees.  Saturday could be a tiny bit cooler.

Saturday will be the better day of the two for severe weather.

So far, no rain & no severe...

At my home on the west side of Kokomo, only 1/100th of an inch has been recorded over the past three days.  It has been pretty much a miss not on all accounts for severe and wet weather.  Looking at an early Tuesday models, I am not overly excited at all with the severe potential for today.  It looks like rain showers at best and I sort of suspect then will dive south again.

9 AM Update: New SPC update slides the slight risk for Indiana to areas south of I-70.  We are officially done.

The good news is the heat wave is more moderate than forecast.  No excessive temperatures above 90 so that is good.

Besides today we have slight risk potential for Wednesday and Thursday.  That will make five consecutive slight risk days for much of Indiana.  That doesn't happen very often. Hopefully we won't bust on all five days.

More Hot Weather...

July really looks to finish hotter then it started.  Yeah, I said hotter.  While there might be a few cooler days here or there, look for several days with temperatures at or above 90 degrees.  Some early forecasts show the latter part of next week into the weekend could be over 95 degrees.  The dewpoints will remain high and that in turn will drive heat indexes well into 100+ for many days.  I did see readings over 120 degrees for the heat index.  I hope that is wrong.

Speaking as a homeowner and general handyman, I strongly urge you to take an hour or two this weekend to give some TLC to your air conditioning system.  Get the weeds and grass away from the outside system.  Take the garden hose and clean the coils.  You may want to shut off power to the unit and spray from the inside out.  Be careful and call a professional if you don't feel confident.  Do not use a power washer of any kind.  That may seem like a quick and easy solution but the coils are fragile and will bend right over.  Then you will have problems.  You might consider getting some coil cleaner.  I picked mine up at Lowes but other places will likely have it.  While there, get a new furnace filter too.  You do not want your unit going down in the middle of the heat wave.  A clean AC unit works better and costs less to run.

Some severe weather could also be a problem with the heat.  However the really hot days have a high bust potential too.  Today was a good example where we have lots of instability but nothing really set it off.  Just a few hit or miss problems across the state.  I recorded about 3/4 of an inch of rain today.  Most of it in a very short amount of time.

Friday evening and Saturday look to be the best time of the weekend for outdoor activities and chores.  They will be very warm however.  Sunday brings back the threat of thundershowers with some possibly being severe.

I will keep an eye on the upcoming heat wave and there is maybe a 5% chance we could temperatures top the century mark before this month is done.

Let's cool off for a moment and talk about the 2010-2011 winter.  I am already seeing a few rough forecasts.  They are pretty much all over the road and I am just reading and making mental notes when I see them.  However here is one I really like from the Climate Prediction Center division of the NWS. See the December, January, February bullseye for above average precipitation for Indiana.  Sweet! 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 is in effect until 900 PM CDT

In .    Indiana counties included are

Adams                Allen               Benton             
Blackford            Boone               Carroll            
Cass                 Clay                Clinton            
Delaware             De Kalb             Elkhart            
Fountain             Fulton              Grant              
Hamilton             Hancock             Hendricks          
Henry                Howard              Huntington         
Jasper               Jay                 Johnson            
Kosciusko            LaGrange            lake               
La Porte             Madison             Marion             
Marshall             Miami               Montgomery         
Morgan               Newton              Noble              
Owen                 Parke               Porter             
Pulaski              Putnam              Randolph           
Shelby               St. Joseph          Starke             
Steuben              Tippecanoe          Tipton             
Vermillion           Vigo                Wabash             
Warren               Wells               white              
Whitley