Where is the snow?

This will not be a complete bust but the models sure didn't get the storm track right. Everyone kept looking for a NW trend which has been the normal all winter. The models never showed the NW trend so it was thought that pattern had been broken.

Well, no. The NW trend did happen and all too well. That combined with a lot of dry air had made nothing but hit or miss flurries in the area.

The thinking of the professional meteorologists is that we still we see snow. It will come later and with less intensity. I have retreated back to my 4-6" forecast I had yesterday. I think when it is finally done tomorrow afternoon that will be the area's snow depth.

Tree Down

I just thought I would take us back a couple of days to when the severe weather blew through the area. Just a few houses away from mine the neighbor had a tree blow down. (I snapped this photo with my new camera phone when I was out walking the dog.)

Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Latest Forecast from the NWS

TONIGHT...NOT AS COLD. SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDDAY...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 8 TO 12 INCHES. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

Update on the Snow

Nothing much to report other than things look on track to start happening after 6 PM. I did include the latest weather story updates from the NWS. Maybe some different thinking between the northern office and the one in Indianapolis. I still like my final call of 6-8" for Howard County and Kokomo.

Detailed GFS Snow Map

The detailed GFS snow map has Howard County anywhere from 8-15 inches. While there will be one more model run finishing just before lunch, the mode will change this afternoon to nowcasting with weather observations coming in and either verifying the models or busting the forecast (with lower or higher totals).

Every county in Indiana under a Winter Storm Warning!

Updated Snow Forecast

The NWS in Indianapolis pin point forecast for Kokomo is 4-8 inches tonight and 1-3 inches on Friday. It also looks to be windy with 15-20 MPH calming to 10 MPH Friday evening into Saturday.

The HPC (Hydrometerorological Prediction Center) provides the following probabilities for our area.

4 inches - 70% or better
8 inches - 40% or better
12 inches - 10% or better

My call is now updated to 6-8 inches with higher amounts possible in localized areas.

NWS: Weather Stories From Around The Area

WINTER STORM WARNING

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM EST FRIDAY. A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

The Real Last Update For Wednesday...

A snow map using the GFS forecast model. You make the call...

Last Update For Wednesday...

The GFS forecast model has ran several days past the upcoming event and can provide a good idea on what it has in mind. In general it is showing about 1" of precipitation equating to 10-15" of snow. While I won’t make any change in my snow forecast of 4-6” until tomorrow, you should consider the possibilities of more significant amounts.

Also with new concerns with winds picking up, the bigger totals plus gusty winds would likely cause an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning sometime tomorrow.

Finally, I wil leave you with what the Indy TV Mets are saying...

Chris Wright (WTHR CH 13) 4-8"
Kevin Gregory (WRTV CH 6) 3-5" central 5-7" north central (10" Chicago area) Thinks freezing precipitation will be a problem.
Angela Buchman (WISH CH 8) 6-9" with frozen over LAF and Kokomo by 7 AM Friday...

Here are the (crazy) maps...

As mentioned in the previous post, this is a crazy snow map with totals again in the 12-18" range. Nothing to do but smile and if you are a snow lover then wish it verifies.


Snow on the ground by 7 PM Friday. Howard County is 13-15 inches. *grin*

Crazy Snow Map

No question the NAM forecast model is overdoing the precipitation amounts. It almost always does so one just learns to cut it back by 40-60%. While the run for tonight is not complete, one can expect a wild and crazy snow map. It really has pushed up the precipitation amounts to almost comedic levels. I should have the snow map in a few minutes.

By the way my call of 4-6" stands as of this point. I don't see any mixing coming this far north so you won't hear the painful ping of sleet against your window.

The snow is coming...

Not a lot of changes to the forecast models or any significant changes by the NWS and their thinking on the storm track or precipitation amounts.

I still believe a 4-6 inch call for Howard County is a good one. If a deformation band crosses over our area then 8-10 inches are possible. While there are some snow maps calling for 12-15 inches, they are more eye candy than legitimate forecasts.

There does not look to be any strong gusty winds with this snow so I think road crews will be able to get a handle on it pretty quick once it ends. Seasonal temperatures 35 to 45 degrees will also help with clearing the roads.

Potential Snowfall Map

Here is a snowfall map using the latest GFS computer model. Our area of Indiana shows 10-15 inches.

Winter Storm Watch

Winter Storm Watch

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE. SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

Friday Snow

Now that this weather event is over, we can focus on Friday's snow. It is still on track. I heard a TV forecast calling for 1-3 inches. That seems low by all model accounts. A call of 4-6 inches would be a safe call in my opinion. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that 8+ inches could fall locally.

Also, while we have been focusing on Friday's snow, jumping back to tomorrow morning will likely see school delays. Friday being a snow day almost is a done deal.

Windy & Cold...

The winds at the Kokomo Airport are 40-50 MPH with 60 MPH gusts. Temperatures are in the teens and will drop to single digits overnight. Expect flash freezing on roadways and parking lots. It looks like most of the snow has past over our area.

Severe Weather Proceeds the Cold Front

Some severe weather proceeded the cold front. In general some strong winds and pea sized hail along with rain. The temperature made a dramatic drop...

7:15p   52.4
7:20p   43.6
7:25p   37.9

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 PM tonight. Numerous warnings already in place in Illinois.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Cold Weather, Thunderstorms, Snow

The cold weather is approaching and when it comes, a rapid temperature fall can be expected. If you plan on being out this evening, take a winter weather gear. Strong winds are associated with the passing cold front. Ahead of the front are thunderstorms and behind it are snow showers.

Thursday Night/Friday Snow Map

Here is a 12 hour snow map from 1 AM Friday morning to 1 PM Friday afternoon. It shows 6-9 inches for our area.

Tuesday Mid Day Short Term

The SPC has added a moderate risk for some portions of the slight risk areas previously mentioned. It does not include our area.

It does seem neither NWS is budging on their current watches, warnings, and advisories. It will be interesting to see how their mid day forecast discussions are worded. The snow looks like it won't be much overnight but a quick heavy band could drop a couple of inches in a very short amount of time. I am not sure how anyone will get a measurement however with the winds so strong.

Update: The Northern Indiana NWS did scale back their call for snow to an inch or less and have dropped the Winter Storm Warning or Snow Advisory for counties just north of Howard.



The snow for Friday looks right on track. I am almost ready to call a snow day already given the model runs.

Tuesday's Outlook

The SPC has a very large area under a slight risk for severe weather. We are included in the slight risk. The NWS offices in Northern Indiana and Indianapolis have a much different view on the timing of the moisture in relationship to the cold rushing in. In Cass Co the Northern Indiana NWS has 1-3 inches expected and in Howard County the Indianapolis NWS call is for a 1/2 inch or less. It will be interesting to see who is correct or if they come to an agreement today.

A significant temperature change will happen today with near 50 for the high dropping to single digits readings overnight. This will be a wild weather pattern for the next 24 hours. Stay tuned...

Tuesday & Tuesday Night Will Rock...

Tuesday and Tuesday Night will bring a broad range of weather to our area. The day will start off warm and with rain. Thunderstorms are possible but would likely be isolated.

After the evening drive home from work temperatures will begin to fall. The Northern Indiana NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings for Cass County and Winter Weather Advisories for Miami and Grant Counties. The NWS in Indianapolis will likely place Howard County under one of those by morning.

While snow will be 1-3 inches locally, a dramatic and rapid temperature drop will flash freeze rain from earlier in the day, 30 to 40 MPH winds will make for whiteout conditions. It will be very hazardous on the roads tomorrow into Wednesday.

Temperature Tomorrow Night...

While we wait for the 0z runs to see how the storms are shaping up, I took a quick look at the approaching cold front tomorrow evening. Tuesday's high is 47. By Wednesday morning, it will be 17. The very tight temperature gradient will move through fast pushing some possible severe weather ahead of it. The quicker it gets through the area, the better chance for some backside snow.

NWS: WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Severe Weather Tuesday

There will be a slight chance for severe weather on Tuesday. This goes right along with a destabilized atmosphere which could produce some decent snow unexpectedly.

The good snow track for the end of the week remains after a second model run today.

Let's Talk Snow...

Today through tomorrow will be warm with a quick drop in overnight temperatures into Wednesday morning. After the warm rain, some snow on the back side will fall before Wednesday morning being 1-2 inches with it and likely some slick roads with black ice from the previous rain freezing. Once we get past that, the end of the week does look to have some serious potential as discussed yesterday.

The latest runs show 6-10 inches for Thursday night with another 2-4 inches on Friday morning before tapering off. The track has been somewhat variable from run to run and the models themselves are on some slight disagreements but even if the worst of it misses us, expect 3-5 inches with this storm; more then enough for a snow day for area schools.

The map below shows the total snowfall accumulation from both storms through Saturday morning. That has Kokomo & Howard County in the 12-15 inch range.



And like a commercial selling you something on TV - But wait, there's more...

A Big Daddy snow storm looks possible with 12+ inches for Tuesday or Wednesday. I won't dwell on it for now but I just want to throw it out there...

Friday's Snow...

Here is the latest GFS runs for the Feb 1 storm. It is pretty typical of what the models are showing. I have taken the liberty to show the freezing line in the first two maps. It should be noted the freeze line is shown at 850 mb or 1500 meters above the surface. That makes the surface temperature warmer.

The question is how long we see rain before the the change over to snow comes. The earlier the better if you want a good snow storm. Also worth a mention is the northwest trend doesn't seem to come into play with this storm since it surface low is moving almost straight north somewhat like the blizzard of 99. However the blizzard of 99 had colder temperatures to work with from the very start.

All week will spent watching this system to see how it tracks. I will keep you updated...

Upcoming Weather and a look back at the Blizzard of 1978

The upcoming week will feature a variety of weather patterns. Most notable will be the warm, wet, and windy start to the work week. Temperatures will be above normal with mid to upper 40's for Monday and Tuesday. Accompanying that will windy conditions along with moderate rain on Monday night and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms could also be associated with the rain.

A drop in temperatures Tuesday evening will turn the remaining moisture into a light snow. After a couple more seasonal days, we need to turn our attention to Friday and Saturday where we could see either a heavy snow (6-10") or severe thunderstorms.

The Blizzard of 1978

What a memory for everyone who was around at that time. There are many great stories being told. Mine is rather tame in general. I was a senior and living in Frankfort. I did a lot of shoveling of our drive and many city fire hydrants and followed that up with some sledding behind a car. (Yes, dangerous to say the least.) Of course we missed a week of school. Much less time off than the 3 county schools.

The snowfall recorded was heavy for our area but not really noteworthy with 12-15" recorded centrally and 24-36" in the northern portions of Indiana. Of course that was followed with 24+ hours of 50 MPH winds and zero temperatures. Drifts ranged from 3' in town to 20' in the country. At that time, hardly anybody in Indiana had equipment to deal with such snow. (We probably are only marginally better off today.) Clearing the roads and streets took forever with what equipment was available.

Food and other items hard to find as trucks making deliveries couldn't get through. I think this was the start of the phenomenon where people rush to buy milk, eggs, and toilet paper anytime someone mentions snow.

One thing to remember between then and now however is the difference in forecasting and passing information. In 1978 the computer forecast models were still in their infancy and overall forecasting was only accurate to 24-36 hours with educated guesses doubling that and wild guessing was anything beyond 72 hours.

Computer models today are better with more information to work with and can do a decent job out to 4 or 5 days and still be OK out to 7 days. Long range models while not able to be as accurate with the details are good showing patterns and trends out 15 days. Even additional longer range models can go several months out predicting some basic weather patterns.

We also have global weather readings taken 4 times each day at the exact same time and can provide much more accurate data to the forecast models to begin their predictions. of course no model is perfect and it is always best a trained meteorologist review the data and tweak it accordingly.

Communications are also much better today than in 1978. People involved in public safety to energy and trucking companies have in house forecasting staff and can put manpower and equipment in places to stage for weather events. Everyone can get on the Internet and get 90% of the same data in raw or finished format and make their own forecasts or read what others have to say about upcoming events.

In the end, it is possible that we could see another storm like the Blizzard of 1978 or then again, we might not see it in our lifetimes. For me, I am hopeful we see some good snows but not at the cost of human life.

There are many excellent articles anniversary articles including personal accounts published recently. Please take some time to relive the memories.

Kokomo Tribune Photo Essay
NWS Indianapolis
NWS Northern Indiana
Channel 8
A Collection for Blizzard of 78 Websites

Overnight Snow

There will be an inch or less of accumulating snow overnight. A warming trend continues tomorrow.

COLD! COLD! COLD!

It is very cold this morning. The good news is today will be warmer than yesterday and tonight will be significantly warmer by 15+ degrees. A weekend warm up is on tap that will continue into the first part of next week and will bring with it rain for Monday and Tuesday. A return to normal temperatures will follow for the end of next week.

It's a Cold Morning

Cold this morning and a little colder tomorrow. After we get past this cold spell a warm up is heading our way for the weekend and the first few days of next week. Monday will be very near 50. Parts south could seem some thunderstorms with the warm up and rain.

Superbowl Weekend: On several long range models there is a Superbowl Weekend snowstorm that looks like it could drop significant amounts of snow from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to New England and the Mid Atlantic States. I hope this one pans out for the snow lovers.

Another Cold Snap...

Another cold shot to finish the week. Single digit lows for Thursday and Friday mornings. Expect some some snow overnight with an inch or less. There will be a weekend warm up coming too.

Dew Points, Relative Humidity, & Snow

The snow which occurred overnight was a great performer in some places and not in others. The greatest snowfall occurred in Wisconsin where they have 8 to 12 inches or more. We received an inch or less. If you look at the maps from last night at 9 PM, you should notice several important features.

Temperatures were good enough to support snow here but it was colder in Wisconsin. They also had a much tighter temperature gradient. One problem we had were the dew points here were about the same as Wisconsin but were much further apart from the surface temperatures. That caused the snow to fall at the higher elevations in the atmosphere but not reach the ground.

Also noticeably different was the surface humidity was half as much as Wisconsin. They had 80% versus out 40%. Less moisture meant less snow potential. It is worth noting that the typical snowfall ratio provides 10-12 inches of snow for every inch of water. High ratios of 15-20 inches for each inch of water are a snow lovers dream. Last evening Wisconsin measured twice that with the NWS coming up with a 47 inch to one ratio. They even did the test twice to confirm it. Reports online said it was some of the biggest and fluffiest flakes every seen. Of course compaction came quick today and while there was no melting, snow levels are 1/2 of what there were at 4 or 5 AM.

The snow...

The snow has generally tapered off and moved east of our area. About an inch or less has fallen around my house. Nothing of consequence other than some slick spots. The winds have picked up and this will drift but since there is not much to start with, the drifting should not be a huge concern.

I do hear some accidents on the police scanner which I suspect were the result of too much speed. Slow down and drive safe!

Additional snow tapering off today and returning tomorrow afternoon. Neither should provide much accumulations. Winds will remain strong for the next 36 hours and usher in colder temperatures. Thursday and Friday mornings will be single digit lows and Thursday will see a high in the low teens.

Another storm will arrive for the weekend but will not be significant.

Snow on Radar

The snow is on radar but isn't hitting the ground everywhere yet. We should see snow after midnight with 1-2 inches by morning. Winds will pick up for tomorrow causing some hazardous driving conditions.

Nothing new to update...

The snow for the overnight into tomorrow looks to be a solid 1-2" performer and nothing more. The only question is how much and exactly when in the overnight. If the timing was right, there could be some school delays but the odds are still pretty slim for that happening at this point.

The week looks to be mainly cold with another possible round of snow later in the week. Like this round, there won't be much accumulation.

Early Week Snowfall

No big snow for our area. The warm moist air will overrun the Arctic air and not start delivering significant snow until Wisconsin and Michigan. By Tuesday evening we will have 1-2 inches on the ground making slick roads, parking lots, and sidewalks.

Snow later in the week also but nothing significant either. It is a shame the cold weather is here and we cannot get a good snow storm to come along with it. The only good new is there are a lot of storms ejecting out of the west and one of these storms will surely be a monster. If not the snow lovers will be disappointed. But hey, there still are 2 months of winter left so no "Winter Cancel" talk yet.

Cold but...

It isn't quite as bad as thought. We just hit -1.0 degrees which is much better than expected.

The snow expected for Monday evening into Tuesday won't be a big one unless something unexpected. A couple of inches for our area. The real meat of the storm is north through IA, WI, and MI. (Lucky devils.)

The COLD is here!

It is cold this morning. At 9 AM I am reporting 3 degrees on 2 thermometers. The NWS at Kokomo Airport has 9 degrees. The do see a bit high with their very cold temperatures from my observations. I notice it shows up even on the Indianapolis newscasts. The weather will remain very cold into Monday.

Next weeks snow seems to be north of our area and the models have been pretty consistent. I think we will not see much in the way of accumulations. An early call would be 1-3" of snow by Tuesday noon.

Next's Weeks Snow...

Yeah, let's hype it a little. *grin* Some of the ADFs (Area Forecast Discussions) by the NWS (National Weather Service) are starting to bite into the possibility of accumulating snow. Currently the heaviest snow arrives Monday evening and lasts into Tuesday. This won't be a monster storm but should bring 2+ inches locally. A better idea of the amounts will be as we draw closer to the event.

Also, do I need to mention the very cold weekend? Our dog Spencer already is starting to show his reluctance on going outside. This is from a dog that likes/expects several big walks each day. Poor fella...

The weekend cold is coming...

No denying this one. It is going to be cold! Friday night will see 10 degrees and that will be Saturday's high as temperatures drop all day and thru the night to below zero. Sunday morning will be -5 to -8 in our area. Moderate winds of 10-15 MPH will bring bitter wind chills.

The start of next week will not be as cold but high will just be in the 20's. The on again, off again snow storm for next week is back on. Hooray! Tuesday and Wednesday could see some decent accumulating snowfall amounts. The colder temperatures with some warm air advection will bring higher ratios for the snow.

A normal ratio is 10/12 inches of snow for every inch of water. This should be 15/20 to 1 if not slightly higher. That will make a good snow with just a fair amount of moisture. No predictions just yet for the totals but I do think a snow day could be very likely from early indications. The timing will determine if it is Tuesday or Wednesday.

Overnight Snow

Trace amounts to 1/2" was reported across the area. Additional trace amounts of snow are possible over the next couple of days. The weekend still will be very cold.

Snow on the Radar...

Snow For Thursday and Friday

The storms look pretty weak with an inch overnight and maybe another inch on Friday. A little rain could be on tap for Thursday afternoon melting away the first round of snow. Some spotty snow showers with little to no accumulation is possible over the weekend. The bitter cold is going anyplace for the weekend and will be a factor for any outdoor plans. Bundle up!

Next weeks storm systems are now pathetic little events that won't do anything to get me any snow days towards my prediction of six. (So far I stand at just one and feel a big time bust happening with that prediction.)

Snow for Thursday/Friday

Snow will be an inch for Thursday. Some snow will linger into Friday and then across the weekend. I don't see anything of consequence in the forecast for snow.

It will be better cold over the weekend and would have made for a great weekend to watch Colts football but that is another sad story.

Bleak Snow Forecast

The forecast models have shown a nice cold shot of air but the snow storms are moisture starved. No big dumps but smaller 1-2" amounts. Next weeks "big daddy" of a storm looks nothing like it did 24 hours ago. Now it is just another blip...

Hope is fading fast...

Do Not Be Afraid...

The bright yellow object in the sky which will be visible late afternoon is called the sun. It is a perfectly normal phenomenon which occurs many times throughout the year. *grin*

Thursday's snow seems to be for widespread 1-2" with more accumulation in IA and WI.

The real weather story is the weekend Arctic chill which will bring very cold temperatures. Sunday morning at 7 AM should bottom out below zero with both days seeing highs in the low teens.

Next weeks storm is still on the map but in typical weather model fashion, they have waffled on the precipitation amounts and are showing much, much less. The good news is the cold weather will still remain in place so no marginal temperature issues with this storm. The hope would be a NW trend as has happened with the past few storms. That would bring better precipitation amounts our way and make for much higher snowfall totals. Let's note give up hope for the big one next week...

One reason to never give up hope is busting in a good way. Rather than predicting snow and getting none, sometimes the actual amount goes over the prediction. The "thumb" area of Michigan expected a couple of inches overnight but people waking up this morning received five inches with a couple more coming. A snow advisory was also issued overnight. Surprise but in a very good way...

Thursday Snow...

Snow looks likely for Thursday starting in the morning through midnight. The best snow will be northwest but Indiana will see an inch with a couple of spots seeing 2 inches. Nothing spectacular but it will add some snow to the ground in preparation for next week.

Snow Flurries Continue - A Quick Forecast Preview

Expect more of the same tonight with snow flurries spitting here and here. I did notice a couple of slick spots in the parking lot at work. It was black ice. Slow down and watch where you walk.

The big news is the forecast. Wednesday will be the warmest day we will see for a while. Temperatures will plunge into teens and by week weekend with an overnight low very near or below.

There will be several snow shots over the 10 days. Thursday into Friday will being a couple of inches and it might bring school delays on Friday. No snow day however. Now next week shows a bigger snow event.

I really think next week might bring a multi day snow event for area schools. Tuesday through Thursday look like the best chances A single snow day seems very likely at this point given the solid cold shot and current forecast models.

Of course the bust potential always remains for every storm, severe or snow. While you might not have been following it but the east coast had a major snow storm forecast for the weekend. New York City had forecasts for 10" over the weekend and ended up with rain. Opps...

More Snow Coming...

There are chances for flurries/light snow through Tuesday. Some more are moving in overnight and are on the western edge of IL as of 10:45 PM.

It's Snowing...

The snowflakes are huge and it is really coming down at a rate of nearly 1" per hour. The good news or bad news depending on you point of view is it will only last a short bit accoring to radar...

Sunday & Monday Snow

The snow will fall for Sunday and Monday in sporadic areas and times. There is no organized storm or front with the system. Since the storms will be scatters over a large area of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, the snow amounts will be difficult to pinpoint but expect 1-2" each day.

The concern at this time would be snowfall on Sunday and Sunday night where it will be light and snow plow crews might not come out due to the overtime issue. Quite possible road and bridges will be slick from the light snowfall.

Another small snow will come later in the week. The long range shows a much larger system about 10 days out. That system early on looks to be a 8-12" of snowfall for our area and is a very organized storm.

Clear Tomorrow

As I first thought, the snow flurries threat for tomorrow has vaporized. In fact there is no precipitation on tap tomorrow according to the NWS, forecast models, and radar. Saturday also looks to be cold and clear into the overnight where a possible snow threat. Sunday and Monday will see some accumulating snow with a couple of inches likely.

Snow sooner than later

Well, the later models seem to show snow late Thursday night and Friday. It is somewhat marginal with temperatures and there is not a lot of precipitation available. Don't look any any real impact other than the "yahoo" drivers which don't slow down with slick roads. A trace is the most likely amounts with some eastern counties seeing an inch.

Plain Ordinary Winter Returns

Yes, old winter returns with nothing really brewing in terms of a winter snow storm. Looking at weather models 7 to 10 days show no hint of significant snow. There do look to be a couple of chances for an inch here or there. Sunday/Monday would be the first time that happens.

In reality, we do need to allow for some of the recent precipitation to flow downstream before we add to the already overloaded stream and rivers. The good new is there is some pretty heavy flooding in counties to our east and north but the early worries about the damns breaking near Monticello have been put to rest. Nobody thinks a catastrophic failure will happen which is amazing considering these dams were built in the 1920's. Very impressive engineering.

Welcome Back Winter Temperatures

Temperatures Falling - Still Raining

The rain is falling and the temperatures are following. The good news is the rain will stop overnight but the temperatures will fall into the middle 30's. Tomorrow will see a more seasonal rebound into the low to middle 40's. You can see the temperature gradients are bunched up along the cold front pushing the remaining instability ahead of it.

We can put the warm and severe spring weather behind us and look to some snow possibilities in the near and long term future in the next update tomorrow.

Soggy but not severe for tonight...

The weather has made a soggy mess around Howard County and Kokomo. As I drove home from work, I saw every side ditch and low spot in the fields with standing water. The storm train has storms moving up from the south while the whole train shifts slowly eastward. This is why there were so many tornado tracks over the same place last night and why parts of north central Indiana received so much rain and the resultant flooding.

It does seem the severe weather making its way into Indiana around Evansville should follow up the storm train exiting over east central Indiana. I am hopeful it will be a quiet night here with just some more rain.

Calmer Weather Today & Flooding

Overall the severe weather seems calmer than yesterday around this time. We are generally expecting to see additional rain and some non severe storms but it should not be anything like was witnessed yesterday in many parts of the midwest and plain states.

Flooding is a major concern and Carroll, White, and Tippecanoe Counties are doing evacuations as water is rising in many low lying areas.

Heavy Rain Reported Overnight

There has been significant rain with the almost stationary storm with 4" plus being reported just to our northwest.

Severe Weather Continued Overnight

The severe weather stalled over the Ozarks overnight. It appears 2 twisters hit Springfield, Missouri and numerous other tornadoes have been reported from Wisconsin to Illinois. This system has the likely potential to being severe weather to our area today including into the evening however early forecasts seem to think the most severe weather will stay south of I-70.

Heavy rainfall is still a distinct possibility with 1-2" by tomorrow morning possible. Howard Co remains under a Flood Watch through evening.

Thunderstorms Pushing Northeast

It looks like the storms are moving northeast just skirting across the area. It has been a bit since storm warnings have been issued with the current line dragging back into Illinois. The radar does show a lot if storms but the organization seems to less. While I wouldn't say it will be a quiet evening, I think we might dodge the first wave today but I still believe tomorrow will bring another round and we should be squarely in bullseye.

Even with my comments about the strength of the storm weakening, you owe it to yourself and your family to keep abreast of every changing conditions by monitoring local TV or radio and you should have your weather radio ready.

Tornado Watch for Miami & Grant Counties

We are surrounded by the new watch area but Howard County is not specifically in it. The tight temperature gradient is where all the severe activity is focused.

Historic Severe Weather Event

Today will be a historic severe weather day. We look to be in the thick of it by around 10 PM. A mesoscale discussion is now covering the central portion of Indiana. This is a precursor to what will likely be a tornado watch.

Numerous severe storm producing tornadoes have been all across the midwest where this storm has been is in the cooler evening hours is still producing tornadoes.

Be alert all night during this event.

Tornado Watch For Miami & Cass Counties

A tornado watch has been issued until 2 AM for Cass and Miami counties and counties north and west. This is part of a larger tornado watch grouping stretching from Oklahoma to Michigan. Numerous reports of severe weather has been reported including damaging tornadoes.

This severe weather event is ongoing and I will report more as it becomes available.

Thunderstorms Possible in the Overnight

A weekend of warmth continues today with highs expected to be in the upper 60's. An approaching cold front with warm moist air from the gulf will bring a good chance for thunderstorms during the overnight into Tuesday morning.

A slight risk has been issued for our area for severe weather for the mentioned time above. Today the risk area extends to our west and south. There have been several severe weather outbreaks under conditions such as this. The time of the year, winter, means nothing so keep alert with your weather radio or local media.



Also, pardon the short post and recent lack of posts. I have been sick and missing out on the fine weather and posting about it too.

Rain, Warm, Repeat...

That will be the forecast for the next 4 days. Rain will be possible each day as temperatures rise to near 60 by Monday. Monday or Tuesday has some small potential for thunderstorms. It is more likely severe weather will be south of our area but it in not all that uncommon for strong/severe storms with cold air instability.

In fact, there was a recent event in April 20, 2004 where a small amount of instability with cold air created a tornado outbreak that produced 30 tornadoes in 4 1/2 hours. One of those was right here in Kokomo and destroyed the local skating rink near Morgan and US 31.

Just remember one can never be complacent and severe weather can happen anytime of the year.

Rain and Warm for the Weekend

Saturday will begin with some freezing rain before turning to all rain. Sunday will be middle 50's with less chances for rain. Expect 1/4 to 1/2 inch of precipitation each day with some street and low level flooding with the snow melt and already saturated ground.


Rain and warm temperatures will continue into the first part of next week. Seasonal temperatures will make their return by end of the week.

What a Snow Forecast for Mamoth Lake, California...

Tonight: Periods of snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to between 80 and 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Friday: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind between 80 and 85 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 39 to 45 inches possible.

Friday Night: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to between 55 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 38 to 44 inches possible.

OK, that makes nearly 100" of snow in 36 hours with winds 80-145 MPH.

Warming Trend Ahead

It will warm up today into the 20's and continue the trend into next week where 50's and 60's are on tap. With the warm up will come rain and possible severe weather. Kiss the current snow pack goodbye.

Lake Effect Snow

Yes, the heavy lake effect snow which is dumping on Benton Harbor, MI and South Bend is providing some snow for us as well. Don't look for any accumulations however but slick roads and sidewalks are very probable.

One Last Hurrah For Some Snow

The snow is still around. Lake effect snows are producing anther 2-4" for northern Indiana. For us another inch is possible this afternoon before 6 PM. Single digit temperatures for today and zero or below for tonight. The start of a warming trend begins tomorrow.

COLD!

It is 3 degrees outside and feels even colder with the wind (chill). Look for minimal warming today to the low teens and an even colder night ahead. Watch for slick roads and be prepared should you slide off. (Throw a blanket in the car and don't forget a hat and gloves.)

Single Digit Temperatures Tonight

While not expected until tomorrow night, the single digit temperatures are now in store for tonight. Tomorrow night will likely still be colder with clear skies and a decent snow pack.

Colder with Snow

Overnight will be colder with low teens plus another inch or two of snow possible. Temperatures will remain nearly steady with it falling to single digits for Thursday morning. Look for warmer temperature for the weekend into next week where 60's are very likely!

Snow Did Arrive - A Little More Coming

Well, I admit I had little faith in the wrap around snow materializing. The hopes and dreams of snow lovers were crushed as far as I was concerned. The NWS seems to be back peddling last night too. Well, surprise... We received was looks to be a1 to 2" of the white stuff and another 1-2" are coming this afternoon and evening. Winds are modest but should pick up today blowing the snow around into some drifts.

The forecast was not a complete bust. For our area, we busted on temperatures before the snow. At 10 AM yesterday the NWS zone forecast for Kokomo said we would remain steady in the low 30's before falling late in the day. Instead we climbed into the low 40's before a slow decline in temperatures. However before the NWS realized the temperatures were going to be significantly higher, they had already went with the Snow Advisory across their area. (Then of course we all got hyped for the snow.)

I mentioned last night but we did received 1/4" of rain that would have produced 3" of snow or so for us. Combine that with the 1-2" we did received and the snow forecast would not have busted. Just a little further north were they were not as warm and had a little more time to cool before the precipitation began to fall, they did received their snow. Early totals of 6 to 12" before lake effect snow fired up have been reported across northern Indiana.

The far northeastern edge of the state into Ohio did bust however on snow. However we were all warned that the snow band would be narrow and a small shift in the track of the low, about 70 miles in this case, would make a huge difference. Sometimes we just don't want to acknowledge those tiny but important details.

For today expect another 1-2" this afternoon through the overnight. Significant lake effect snow is occurring and will continue for the South Bend area over to Ft Wayne. Winds will pick up making visibility poor with blowing and drifting. Also watch for colder temperature to follow before the weekend warm up. (The warming trend will deserve a whole discussion in itself.)