Late Afternoon Update

Here is one messy update. Let's begin with the HPC winter composite. The Day 2 Map begins at 7 PM Monday evening and shows us with a 10% chance for 4 or more inches of snow as well as 1/4 inch of ice being a 40% chance.

Most of the NWS forecast offices in the region have differing ideas on a storm system which still has the models stymied. It also has the forecasters mentioning a lot of uncertainty with their forecasts. Some are being aggressive and issuing winter watches and advisories and some are remaining conservative. At this point I don't fault either camp and can see the reasoning for their decisions.

Here is a run down what local NWS offices have issued and are thinking.

Indianapolis has issued a Flood Watch for all counties in their coverage area.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT FROM NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CAUSE RISES IN AREA RIVERS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OTHER AREAS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREETS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

The Northern Indiana NWS Office has went and issued a Winter Storm Watch for many counties in their coverage area including Miami and Grant. Cass is NOT included however.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN FFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHIFTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY ICING EXISTS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW AMOUNTS OF ICING TO BE MAXIMIZED AT OR ABOVE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAUSEON OHIO TO FORT WAYNE TO PERU INDIANA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY ACCUMULATED AN INCH OR TWO INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY TO TRAVEL.

They also have a Flood Watch in effect for almost all of their coverage are.

Here are some key comments directly from the Indianapolis NWS discussion issued at 4 PM.

THINGS GET TRICKY ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTEDNED FREEZING RAIN EVENT ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM MUNCIE...ANDERSON TO CARMEL.

WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

As you can see, they are being conservative with issuing a watch or advisory. All I can say is to pay attention as this system could bring a little bit of everything and decided at the last second where.