Busted Forecast & Colder

I forgot to post it here but shared it with my twitter followers that I was fairly certain the Wednesday into Thursday snow would drop 2 to 4 inches. There were some promising reports out from Peoria Illinois to our west which seemed to support my forecast. Well, it didn't even come close in our area. The heavier snow bands went south with places such as Crawfordsville receiving 3 inches. We had a trace to one tenth of an inch. What snow we did receive ran into a large pocket of dry air and the falling white stuff never hit the ground.

We look to have some melting and compacting of the snow today before we user in much colder temperatures. The weekend will see highs in the low to middle teens with single digit lows. Some lake effect snow could reach as far south as us this weekend too bring just light accumulations. Up near Lake Michigan the snow totals could surpass two feet over the next few days.

Speaking of two feet, the crazy talk I mentioned a few posts ago two to four feet of synoptic snow over a wide portions of the eastern US turned out to be just that. I guess with three memorable if not historic snows in a row, it just seems plausible the pattern and storm which the models kept showing could actually be true. Now the storm will be a more traditional set up over just the upper New England states. (VT, NH, ME) Six plus inches with howling winds will produce sometimes fun wintry conditions for them.

No surprises in the medium to long range for us other than it will remain cold and many nuisance dustings (yes, dustings) are likely. No accumulations of more than an inch here or there is showing up currently. I have held out hope the end of next week would produce a big storm but it doesn't seem as likely as we are drawing closer and it hasn't even shown any solutions which give us a big snow for several model runs. Oh well...

Revised Snow Total

After looking at the reports from the cooperative observers and amateur radio operators to the NWS, I will revise my total for the Saturday night & Sunday storm at 3.5 inches. (I had initially reported 4 inches so I was pretty close.)

Looks like it is going to remain cold. Also looks like we are on the western edge of some lake effect snow for the next few days. Accumulations look to be 1/2 an inch to an inch per day through the weekend.

Sunday Wrap Up & Our Future...

Today was a great surprise snow. Everybody had to keep raising their forecast snow amounts. It started yesterday as the Chicago area received amounts from 5 to nearly 12 inches. It has been difficult for me to have a definitive total but I think I will call it at 4 inches until I hear some additional reports into the NWS tomorrow. (It is never easy to get a measurement at my house.)

Both the short range and long range look to remain cold and volatile with snow chances coming every few days. This week will deliver some snow Wednesday into the weekend. This will likely be a long duration event with a little bit of snow coming each and every day. No real significant accumulations but a couple of inches seems probable right now. A later update will give a more accurate total.

What has my interest comes not this week but around the end of next week. I have seen several runs of the long range GFS showing a nice storm. While it hasn't shown historic snows like so many have seen, a nice 4 to 6 inch system with blowing seems to be floating around our area.

I think it is going to be interesting weather over the next two to three weeks.

Winter Weather Advisory

Looks like an additional two to three inches likely this afternoon. It would be a good time to stay home and watch the Colts.

More details here - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ind&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Crazy Talk...

The holidays and travel has had me somewhat distracted with the weather beyond the immediate system. However some quick looks around at models and some intelligent discussion has uncovered what I would call crazy talk. I find it hard to believe that the discussion of two to four FEET of snow is seriously being talked about for a large swath of the eastern US next weekend or so...

I am really going to have to take some time to digest the complex and volatile weather pattern which has produced three, count 'em three, large scale snow storms already for the US. (Too bad we were a miss for all three here locally.)

Sunday Snow

It looks like a nice snowfall of a couple inches or possibly even as much as four inches if the system can produce as shown on the computer models. Already slick on roadways and I have heard of numerous slide offs on the scanner.

Snowy Update

Some snow fell overnight and flurries are likely throughout the day. After midnight, snow showers will move in and drop another inch of snow before Sunday lunch.

There are some additional snow chances showing up on the models and I will start tomorrow to detail what our future holds.

Christmas Day

The overnight rain has made slop of everything outside. Yuk. A heavy band should move through around 9:30 or a bit after. It looks generally clear after 11 AM and temperatures should start to fall this afternoon. Snow flurries should be possible thru Sunday with minimal accumulations around an inch.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Christmas Eve Morning Update

Looks like we should be dry for a few hours locally as a dryslot comes through. Surface temperatures are also rising so the light glaze seen about should melt off or at a minimum stop increasing. Overall I found traveled roads wet with lightly used roads still slick in spots. The police scanner has slowed down with slid offs for now giving law enforcement and tow truck drivers a rest.

Temperatures should continue a slow rise through Christmas morning and nearly an inch of rain possible. (Yes, the snow will melt away.) We should transition back to snow by tomorrow afternoon. A light snow with an inch or so likely into Sunday.

I do think we are nearly done with the freezing rain. That is a good thing for travelers and last minute shoppers. Please note than travel north and west could be much more hazardous so please check conditions before traveling.

Have a great Christmas if you don't happen to stop by again. Also, don't forget to watch Santa and his travels. (He is already on the road delivering presents!) Check here - http://www.noradsanta.org/

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

ICY WEATHER INTO AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN WILL BE COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO PRODUCE GLAZE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT.PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

INZ021-030-031-038>042-049-231900-
/O.NEW.KIND.ZR.Y.0001.091223T1434Z-091223T1900Z/
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DE-RANDOLPH-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.FRANKFORT.KOKOMO.ANDERSON.MUNCIE
934 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

Watch for changing conditions

I don't anticipate any significant icing accumulations with the system across our area. Rather some light patches which can make for slick surfaces. Drive accordingly as you are out and about. Watch the radar for where the rain/snow/freezing rain sets up. (Pink is freezing rain.)

It's coming east...

The models have trended a bit east with the track of the low and secondary low. Now it won't be large enough to have a huge difference on our snow totals but could have an impact on our frozen precipitation. Icing amounts of 1/10" looks possible.

Now look at the forecast track of the low(s)...

Things could get interesting!

Beast!

Looks like a beast of a storm for the high plains...

Miss Opportunity

No doubt today would have been a two hour delay for area schools. Slick snow packed roads that are mainly untreated make for easy delay calls early in the season. Watch for a continued light snow accumulating to around an inch before tapering off by evening.

While not looking to make ice storm criteria, there could be some ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday. Small amount of ice with moderate winds gusting more than 20 MPH could cause some downed trees and power lines. Travel will be slow during this time frame. Thursday evening into Christmas Day should see a change over to all rain before going back to snow for the weekend.

I want to give a plug tor Chad Evans and his weather blog. Chad is the on air meteorologist at WLFI (Channel 18) in Lafayette. He has some great detailed analysis of upcoming weather. Visit him here - http://blogs.wlfi.com/category/chads-wlfi-weather-blog/

Below has to be one of the ugliest low tracks I have seen in quite a while. The warm air from the gulf will be brought up giving us the wintry mix and rain. Bah Humbug!

Ugly Week Ahead

Crummy winter weather is ahead. More snow showers overnight and tomorrow with minimal accumulations. Wednesday and Wednesday night could be problematic with a wintry mix with freezing rain and wind. That could be a lethal combination for the power grid. Expect some outages.

Christmas Eve will continue to have freezing rain before a temperature warm up in the overnight. Christmas day will start out warm before ending with snow and much colder temperatures.

No significant snow with any of this mess.

Wintry Mix

Wednesday and Wednesday are now forecast with a *wintry mix* and then 40 degree temps will being all rain on Thursday before we return to snow for Christmas Day.

Snow & More...

The overnight clipper will provide about an inch of snow and slick roads for the morning. Drive safe.

Later this week is still not a lock but it looks more than likely the snow will track to our west and north. The question is what do we get? While I don't like a cold rain, it is better than the alternative which is freezing rain. The warm layer of air aloft Wednesday evening through Thursday morning could pose some icing threats until surface air warms.

Some rain and then snow will come around on the back end Christmas day. It will likely be a mess and changes to the forecast is likely. Keep coming back...

Ugh...

The big storm for Christmas looks like it will be wet rather than snowy. Still some time but the models are starting to come together with similar solutions and none of them bring anything more than a light snow mix with mainly rain Wednesday thru Saturday. :(

Hope Santa Brings You A Generator...

The GFS is advertising a widespread devastating ice storm for Christmas Eve and Day. Sure hope that does not verify...

Possible Tracks of Christmas Low

Credit: Scott Dimmich from ABC News 25 Evansville

Allready 18+ inches in much of the middle Atlantic

That would sure be sweet. Look at this photo...

Less Snow For Us...

Watching the reports coming today and the warm temperatures, I was afraid the "snow hole" which kept showing up on the models was a fluke. it wasn't. Looks like the snow will wait closer to daylight to start and then will accumulate around an inch.

There is a HECS (Historic East Coast Snowstorm) happening this weekend with snow from the Carolinas to New England. The nations capital will see 12 to 24 inches of snow. What a beast of a storm. (I know several who when on a snow chase and had I not had some work commitments, I likely would have went myself!)

There is a big system brewing for next week which should hit a couple of days before Christmas and move out to the east coast by the weekend. Way to many (goofy) model solutions to even consider what path it will take. Look for a better handle on the storm late this weekend or even as late as Monday.

Around an inch or two...

The system moving through Friday evening through Saturday evening will drop around one to two inches of snow. Look for slick roads when leaving the basketball games on Friday night.

This system looks to phase with another system from the gulf to produce what will likely be a crippling storm along the eastern seaboard.

A clipper system will come in Sunday night which looks like it has the potential for another inch or two. Cold weather will keep this snow cover on the ground while a potentially huge system could strike just a day or two before Christmas. This system needs to be watched closely.

Snow for last minute shoppers...

Last minute shoppers could see snow while out Friday PM through Saturday early evening. Accumulations will be light of one to two inches around the area with the mini clipper diving over the area. This will likely double our snow total for the season.

Anopther poteinal clipper system could arrive Monday evening and then a huge late week storm could dump snow over much of the eastern United States including locally. Stay tuned...

Snow in the Forecast?

Twenty four hours ago I had little confidence in getting measurable snow from the weekend clipper system. What a difference a day makes with some better sampling of the system coming onshore and a few models runs. Hey, even the NWS in Indianapolis has jumped on board for a 50% chance of snow for Friday late afternoon to Saturday evening.

The low will track from Quincy, Illinois at 7 AM Friday morning to Evansville by 7 PM Friday evening and then Lexington, KY be 7 AM Saturday morning before continuing east.

This should make for a wide swath of snow squarely dropping one to two inches across our area. One thing I like is we have had pretty good luck with clipper system and it isn't all that uncommon for them to over perform. Spots of three or four inches wouldn't surprise me with the snow being light and fluffy.

This will likely also be a slow duration event which will cause slick roads across the area for 24 or more hours. Get your shopping done early! (I am done already!)

A later update is possible or early tomorrow morning.

Cold...

There seems to be plenty of cold to go around this week and next. However the cold will be wasted with no significant snow in the forecast. Some possible snow flurries may possible Friday evening and Saturday. No accumulations but roadways could become slick so driver should be cautious should precipitation begin falling.

Winding Down...

The wind and the temperatures are winding down. It sounds odd to say this but the winds almost underperformed today given the extremely low pressure and tight gradient around the low.

The official peak gust was measured at 54 MPH.

Temperatures are now falling and we are going to remain cold for the next few days until a slight more moderate/seasonal temperatures arrive.

Several more systems keep popping up on the models but nothing like the storm which rocked much of the country with blizzards, heavy snow, and thunderstorms. Stay tuned.

2009-2010 Snow Totals

This post will be updated with snow totals during the Winter of 2009-2010 for Kokomo, IN.

TOTAL: 32" (thru 2/27)

12-7 1" (first snow)
12-9 T (30 to 50 MPH winds (NWS KOKK Gust 54 mph))
12-10 T
12-19/12-20 2" (first clipper system)
12/21 1" (second clipper system)
12/22 1" (unexpected)
12/26-12/27 3.5" (decent snow in two waves (missed out on a snow day))
12/30-12/31 T (busted forecast, best snows went south)
1/2 T (huge LES event up north)
1/4 0.5" (LES)
1/7 5" (nice clipper system/some schools closed/some dismissed early - Snow Day #1)
1/8-1/9 1" (LES Schools closed on Friday.)
1/25-1/26 1" (Blowing mess across Indiana. We miss out on the big one later this week.)
1/28 - 1" (Terrible, just plain terrible.)
2/2 - T (Nothing much...)
2/5-2/6 - 4" (Big storm system just south of us.)
2/9-2/10 - 5.5" (Busted on snow totals but did get two snow days and still the biggest snow of the season.)
2/12 - 0" (no snow but freezing fog canceled school for eastern.)
2/15-2/16 - 1" (much bigger snow south again.)
2/20 - T (The 2 wave storm system that failed.)
2/23 - T
2/24-2/25 - 2.5" (LES)
2/26 - 1" (reverse system)

WOW!

High Winds Coming/Flakes Reported in Lafayette

Duke Energy Power Outage

Some spotty power outages are possible today with the winds. You can find information and updates from Duke Energy online here - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp

29.017"/982.6mb

The barometer read 29.017" OR 982.6mb 4:11 AM. That is the lowest reading of the year.



Winds are the concern of the day and watch the road for debris as you drive about. About anything not secured today will be blowing around. I already saw a small limb in the road on my way to work.

Wind...

Wind remains the headline for our area. Look for a memorable wind event tomorrow with sustained winds over 25 MPH with gust over 50 MPH likely. The one inch of snow will likely be blown completely away.

The temperatures will also drop significantly as the cold front passes. Temperature will begin to start falling by 9 AM with the passing of the cold front and will bottom out to 12 degrees by dawn on Thursday. Winds will remain on Thursday but down to 10 to 15 MPH sustained. Not much warming either with highs in the teens for Thursday.

Another cold night near 10 for Friday morning before warming to near 30. Looks for another dusting of snow Saturday evening with nominal accumulations.

Nothing Has Changed...

It looks like the warm air was way underdone on the forecast models. The rain/snow line keeps moving north/northwest. Zero chance we see any snow until tomorrow afternoon when a bit of the wrap around snow could fall. Accumulations of one inch at best.

The winds do remain a concern and I expect it to dominate local weather headlines through Thursday morning. Tomorrow during the daylight hours, I fully expect some wind damage to weak structures, uprooted trees, and power outages.

Now looking ahead to a smaller weekend storm which might bring a few flakes.

No Changes

Click for the whole picture...

It looks like there have been no shifts to the system which will impact our area. The winds will begin to ramp up today gusting to near 25 MPH and then will be double that tomorrow with 50 MPH plus wind gusts and 30 MPH sustained winds.

Monday Night Update

No significant changes to the forecast. It is going to really turn into a nowcast type of situation to see if there are changes to the track which would bring it further south.

Be advised the winds will be a significant problem in Wednesday with the strongest gusts around 10 AM to 4 PM where gusts over 50 MPH are likely.

If you are twitter savvy, please be sure and follow KokomoWeather for the very latest here - http://twitter.com/KokomoWeather

High Winds Watch For Wednesday

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.

315 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


* TIMING: THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 7 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS: HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY HAVE DIFFICULTIES TRAVELLING AND COULD BE BLOWN OFF THE ROAD. LOOSE FURNITURE OR LAWN ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AWAY.

Hope! (Forecast Update)

There is some hope we can pull out more snow than first thought. The cold and high pressure are a tad further south than originally forecast. This should cause the low pressure which is just inside of Nevada and training back into California to dip a bit lower into Texas.

From the Wichita, KS weather office an hour or so ago, then mention this too...

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AIRCRAFT DATA IS EVEN SHOWING 130KT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PV ANOMALY. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE IT TOO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. WE ARE STARTING SEE HINTS OF THIS ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS.

Let's take a second to look at the various forecast ensembles you can see that a significant number are southeast of the projected track favored by the NWS.

So while a track more slightly to the south and east would help us, it won't bring the blizzard to us. However we could potentially see our snow totals jump up to 3 to 5 inches rather than the minor 1 to 2 inches currently forecast.

Speaking of snow, system might bring a small front end dump of 1 to 2 inches before the rain comes. Watch for that just after the lunch hour tomorrow. Then rain before a quick swipe of another inch before dawn on Thursday morning.

I guess we still need to keep an eye on the system...

It Snowed!

We finally have done it! We have our first snow!

As mentioned, there was some wild driving and the scanner was going crazy with slid offs. I did hear of one possible accident which included a car stuck on tracks. You can catch all of the action at ScanKokomo - http://www.scankokomo.com/. (Mobile/Cell Phone users can listen here - http://m.radioreference.com/?feedId=127)

No big changes for the mid week storm for our area. Dubuque, Davenport, & Cedar Rapids, IA are now under a Blizzard Watch.

Mid Week Mayhem...

The big snow being talked about will be a miss for our area but the system will be a big influence for us in other ways. The low pressure will track from the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon to northwest Indiana by 7 AM on Wednesday.

Rapid deepening of the low will cause the winds to ramp up on Tuesday with afternoon winds near 20 MPH. By 7 PM, the winds will remain strong bringing up warm temperatures ans some thunder will be possible. Rain will be prevalent with amounts from 1/2" to 3/4" before a change over to a bit of back end snow of about an inch.

The winds will be strong through Wednesday with gusts near 40 MPH before tapering off on Thursday. There will be a possible freeze issue Wednesday night when temperatures finally drop below freezing. Thursday could offer school delays.

Overall I don't expect any ice accumulation or associated problems (down trees or power lines) from this storm.

If you are unlucky enough to be traveling into Wisconsin or Iowa or the western half of Michigan this week, you will probably run into big snow storm which will likely dominate news headlines.

If something changes, I will keep everyone informed.

We're done...

I was going to do a more detailed and technical update showing what I had hoped was the small amount of remaining potential for the mid week system. However after the latest model reviews, it would just be an effort in futility and losing some sleep. Yes, I am bitter and there is no hiding it. Too often the models show potential and then take it away.

In general, the warm air is coming in and making a wreck of everything. Right now the temperatures at 850mb (5000 ft.) range from -10 t0 -13 Celsius. By Monday, they have risen to about -5 Celsius and continue the climb. When the storm is going, we are several degrees above freezing at 5000 ft.

Surface temperatures which have been cold also rise to middle 30's. Combining the two results in a cold and miserable rain. Of course after most of the system has passed, the surface and 850mb temperatures fall possibly producing a couple of inches at best on the back end. Otherwise the storm will be a bust for our area.

If we do get a big snow producer from this storm, then the models will need to be wrong and the storm's low pressure would need to dig deeper south before ejecting northeast. That will (need to) happen on Tuesday. I will follow the low track to see how it verifies.

Monday Morning Alert: While the focus has been on bigger mid week storm, there is a smaller system moving through late Sunday evening into Monday. It should being us a nominal amount of snow of an inch or less. Like was thought last week, the snow will fall early morning and through the rush hour. Expect possible hazardous and wild driving conditions on Monday morning with people relearning how to drive on snow covered roads. School delays are possible.

Forecast Coming Later...

I will begin to detail the upcoming possible snows with a forecast later tonight. Lots to sort out...

Houston, we have a problem...

Winter Storm Warning in the Houston metro area. They are looking for 2-4 inches which will make for impossible driving conditions. (Here we would just day heh and continue on.)

Also some great lake effect snow in Michigan where more than nine inches has already fallen.

It is good to know someone is getting snow. I am hopeful that we will have some snow with the next system on Sunday evening into Monday.

The system which follows for Tuesday night into Wednesday has a lot more questions than answers at this point. Time will tell...

Next Week...

Next week could bring good potential for snow. Given the history of the forecast models, I will hold off on predicting any forecast details but will mention that the first storm on Monday should give us our first flakes of the season while the middle of the week has potential to bring someone a great snow; hopefully us!

Enjoy the cold weekend and check for updates about next week.

The Surface Low (& Snow Reports)

It is almost painful how perfect this low is tracking. Some reports of snow in Montgomery County. Still at 38/39 here...

Uncle...

I surrender to the storm system and am not expecting anything but a few mixed in flakes. It is going to remain just warm enough as the precipitation slides through that we will received a cold rain. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1/3" for the system.

There will be colder temperatures in store for the end of the week through the weekend but the deep cold advertised on the long range models for next week has disappeared. If that happens. then the upcoming storms riding the fence whether if they are going to bring rain or snow.

There is one positive thing about this system is the track of the low is about perfect for good snows for our area. If later systems can keep this track when there is ample cold air, then we should get some decent snows!

Am I alone here???

I think I might be the only person still thinking we will receive any snow. Most believe the precipitation will move out before the cold arrives. I will continue to believe in my forecast while I sleep but I might waffle tomorrow and change my mind.

The one thing I can guarantee is colder and wetter weather.

Not much to update...

The models have seemed to bring a nice axis of QPF over us tomorrow night into Thursday AM. The question is when does the cold air arrive and the change over to snow occur. I am still thinking sometime around the late news the change over will be occurring with it picking up steam a few hours later. By sunrise, it will be all but done and I think the inch will have fallen. If we can get a nice deformation band over the top of us, two to three inches might just surprise us come Thursday morning even though there is more wishcasting in that than any science. *grin*

Looking Back at November & Ahead to Thursday's Snow

Let's look back at November first. The Indianapolis NWS did a nice write up but even the most casual weather observer knows that November was warm and dry. The many days with an above normal temperature allowed people complete outdoor chores and to continue to enjoy outdoor activities.

We averaged about three to four degrees above normal. The high of 73 came early on 11/8 and we dropped to 28 on 11/12. (Last year we dropped to 14 on 11/22.)

The warm weather was accompanied by sunshine much of the time. Only about half as much rain as normal fell for November. While there were some observation of snow flakes mixed in with the rain over the Thanksgiving holiday, I am declaring November to be snow free. I don't consider anything less than a trace amount to even count.

December does look to start out cooler with temperatures falling to seasonal later this week and it looks like lows will dip into the teen by the middle of the month. Our first snow this week will be light and stay around an inch. I do feel rather confident that there will be a two hour delay for the county schools in the area. The snow will fall mainly after 2 AM lasting up until the normal start of school. The previous rain will freeze on some surfaces too including bridges and sidewalks. I think that combination and with this being the first hazardous conditions of the season, administrators will error on the side of caution and delay school. (If this were later into the season and we had a few snows under our belt, I might not be as confident.)

Taking a real look for snow...

This is frustrating storm to figure out and I sure hope they are not all this hard this winter or there will be a lot of late nights watching model runs and then still not knowing anything for certain. What I do know right now is the storm is shown all over the place and that it is very unlikely to be a major hit for anyone.

There are a multitude of issue with this system besides the track too. We are going to be warm. Tuesday looks to be a tick above 50 and sunny. We have not had any sustained cold so the ground is also warm so anything falling will melt early on.

The system is a fast mover so no matter where it tracks, nobody will receive a long duration snow storm however there could be some pretty heavy rates as it falls and it will be wet and heavy.

If the storm comes to us, then the southern stream of moisture won't mix in with the northern stream early enough so we will receive a cold and miserable rain before the transition to snow.

If there is a good phase of the two, the storm will most likely pull west and give us a trace amount or slightly more. It would be doubtful we would even see an inch of the white stuff.

One problem we have is the sampling of weather is poorly done over Mexico where the southern stream is currently tracking. A better indicator of the track and hopefully some consensus will happen with the Tuesday morning model runs and I should think a solid idea on where it is going will be in place by this time tomorrow.

I still like the chances for a 2 hour delay on Thursday is even a small amount of snow falls given it is the first of the season.

Beyond this storm system, several more are on track for our area next week so even if this is a miss, we might have a better shot next week with cold air already partially in place. Stay tuned for more updates...

Snow Update...

Lots of uncertainties but some small hope exists for accumulating snow, mainly on Thursday. However some believe the snow will be northern IL, southeast WI, and western/northern MI. We get a miss with that thinking...

Snow...

The HPC has a 10% chance we will see four inches of snow. I think a call of one inch with occasional spots nearing two would be a valid call for now. Too bad we don't already have the cold so the ground would be frozen...

Is there snow in the forecast?

You betcha! With that said, we need to temper our enthusiasm with rational thinking...

The week will begin sunny and seasonal temperatures with cold air and rain and snow coming in for the latter part of the week. The upcoming snow potential has been difficult to nail down by almost everyone. Models don't have much agreement on the specifics and they even change enough between each run that you just cannot be sure of the impact the system will have and upon whom impact will effect.

However time keep running out to really show a major phase to the two systems so it is more than likely going to be a minor event for whoever gets lucky and sees snow. The threat for snow is about 50/50 right now for our area and totals will probably be two inches to just a trace amount.

However just a few minor differences could change this to significant but this seems unlikely.

With any first snowfall, school delays and wild and crazy driving will be very likely.

The good news is the upcoming temperatures do look become more favorable for snow and the models do remain active with various storms. Let's just hope we can get a bomb!

Short Forecast...

Just a few short thoughts...

The Great Lakes are in a snow drought compared to the past couple of winters. Last year most areas in the upper Great Lakes had double digit snowfall by now and many remain snowless or have just a trace amount to an inch or two.

Saturday will be beautiful with sun and middle 50's and warm blooded people like me will be sporting our shorts one more time this year! Sunday looks to be nearly as warm but it will be overcast and with showers so it will feel much cooler.

A lot of talk about the cold air coming into our region next week. Nothing more than seasonal temperatures and the weather forecast models are still showing a possible storm. Even a few even hint at a significant amount of 4 to 6 inches plus across the area but that seems little far fetched for now. I still wouldn't mind seeing an inch or two and that does seem possible. However timing will be critical for the moisture and cold and it could just end up being a cold rain. *frown*

I will try to start work on updating the site starting on Sunday. Already starting to do some tweets on twitter. http://twitter.com/kokomoweather (Some instructions for those not familiar with twitter will be coming shortly.)

Snowless

We remained snowless with the system that moved through. It never did get cool enough to even try to spit some snow with the afternoon precipitation. November will likely finish out with no snow which it doesn't do all that often.

It is difficult to pin down the first chances for snow in December. The long range models have been on again and off again with snow and have it everywhere from the plains to the Atlantic ocean. Not much confidence in any solution at this point but I still think that the end of next week could bring someone a nice snowfall or possible severe weather from Arkansas to the Carolinas.

Friday morning shoppers will need some hot deals to warm up from the overnight low around 30. Saturday will be a nice day with sun and temperatures near the middle 50's for the region.

Overall the temperature patten will return to more seasonal temperatures with no deep cold or torch expected. Seasonal temperatures hover right around the upper 20s to middle to upper 30s making it difficult to predict snow.

Thanksgiving Snow and then Snow Next Week...

Look for a rain/snow mix with no accumulation of the white stuff for tonight into Thanksgiving. The big shopping weekend looks to be partly sunny with highs in the middle to upper 40's all three days. Little to no precipitation.

Next week looks to start out with rain and possible some severe weather to our south and then changing over to snow. The models still vary on amounts but some accumulations a couple of inches and maybe more seems like a realistic possibility. A lot is still up in the air on the timing of the cold air and how it interacts with the southern stream of moisture. It could be interesting...

You can get on board with the new Kokomo-Weather twitter account here - http://twitter.com/kokomoweather For those clueless about twitter, don't despair! I will bring you up to speed in the very near future on some of the amazing uses and possibilities.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Snow and Changes Coming...

Looks like there will be a rain and snow mix for Thanksgiving Day around the area. No accumulation of the white stuff is expected.

There has been some wintry weather showing up on the longer range models for December. While nothing can be pinned down or is for sure, expect some change in the pattern bringing cooler weather.

Kokomo-Weather will undergo some new updates in December including forecasts three times weekly sent via twitter (*get on twitter!*) and updates to the web pages and links. Stay tuned!

Edit to add: I will also be working on new mobile solutions and tell you about the best weather apps for your smart phones!

Cooler with showers this week...

I think the NWS forecast for Kokomo says it all. Cooler with chances for rain this week...

Warm Weather Continues

The beautiful weekend will continue into the work week. A chance for rain Monday night into Tuesday but more sunshine to complete the week. While there will be a slight cool down as the week progresses, it will still remain above our typical average for November.

I do caution those who are already canceling winter. It is very early and don't panic with the warm weather. Our time for winter will come...

Welcome Avery!

We have a new addition to our home. His name is Avery and he was very unexpected. My wife has an ex coworker who is her friend and yesterday she invited my Jeri to lunch. It seemed innocent and not unusual. Well her friend had a surprise for us, a new puppy. WOW!

We had not considered a dog yet and were still mourning the loss of Spencer but here we are with a new dog and his name is Avery. He seems like a cute dog and is three months and a few days old. He loves attention and loves to play. He quickly found some of Spencer's old toys and made them his own.

While Avery will never replace the memories we have for Spencer, he looks like he will make a whole bunch of new memories for us and I think after just once day, he will be a welcomed addition to our home.

2009-2010 Winter Outlook Summary

Hello and welcome to the much anticipated 2009-2010 Winter Outlook Summary and the annual prediction of snow days for Howard County Schools.

As you know, my call for winter is a blend of many other more detailed and thought out winter forecasts. The good thing about these forecasts is each of those has been debated to the nth degree, mainly by others much smarter than me. Hopefully I have been able to weed out the wishcasts from those which have some scientific and meteorological merit and have been able to find some common ground in which to make my forecast summary.

When sorting over the winter outlooks, there are two themes which seem to dominate. The first group believes this will be an El Niño year. The Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) made their winter outlook based upon this thinking and they are not alone. El Niño winters for us are generally not good if you are a snow lover and like the prolonged cold in Indiana since we tend to be warm and dry.

While it does appear many of the variables which make up the El Niño are trending in that direction, a second group of winter outlooks are not jumping on the El Niño bandwagon. Currently the El Niño is in the low moderate range and they believe it will begin to relax considerably in the next few weeks. The second group also says let's look at the current pattern and asks for someone to really show them where it is changing. In fact they say even when El Niño has strengthened, the pattern has persisted.

Let's take a look at the pattern and how it has affected us. It has been cooler around for us and thinking back, it never really was a blistering hot summer like we most of the times have in Indiana. Since January 1, we are about 1 degree cooler than normal. The last three months are about 1 to 2 degrees cooler and the last 30 days has us 2 to 4 degrees cooler.


Doing the same for precipitation, we are 120% above normal since January 1, about the same for the past three months but a whooping 300% for the past 30 days.


The pattern has made us cooler and wetter than normal. Does the pattern continue to persist? Some forecasters believe so and created their winter forecasts accordingly. The El Niño group has been pointing to the very recent warming trend which has place the temperatures plus 2 to 4 degrees over normal for much eastern third of the United States and are already declaring an early victory.

What we really know is everybody could be wrong and long range forecasting is as much art as it is science and depending on the market for which one forecasts, it can sometimes skew the reasoning. Some believe that the forecast is created first and that the science is then found to support it. That sounds very plausible since I am looking for the forecasts which will allow me to predict cold and snowy since that is the winter weather I love. (I know Julie wants that too!)

However I think I am able to find a good summary based mainly upon solid and well reasoned forecasts. So let's get down to my 2009-2010 winter forecast for Howard County and Kokomo, Indiana.

In general I think the warming trend will continue keeping us with above normal temperatures for November and December. While I don't expect and record setting warmth, I could see a few days where one could skip wearing a coat in December.

January will be cold. Very cold in fact. Almost all camps believe that January will have several prolonged cold snaps driving down the overall temperature departures much below normal. February will still remain cold early but will give way to a late warming trend which will continue with an above normal March. Spring (and severe weather) will come early to Indiana.

Precipitation will continue to be above normal. El Niño or not I just cannot see it being dry. However it won't be stretched out over the entire winter but will come in big shots. Unfortunately many of the big shots will be rainmakers. But wait, there is some hope for snow lovers...

We should see several Alberta Clippers during our cold snap in January and early February and a couple of those should over perform providing decent snows of four to six inches. Otherwise I could see a lot of small dustings of one to two inches or as I call them, nuisance snows.

I do think a *big monster* will come together with two or even three systems phasing together giving us a 16"+ snow storm across a large portion of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Don't worry if this doesn't happen during the coldest parts of the winter. This could very well be a late winter blast sometime in March.

In conclusion, I think we will see around 16 to 20 inches of snow outside of the big one which should top us out over 30 inches or slightly above average. If we don't see a big snow, then look for below average for the winter.

Now to be fair, I should be like many forecasters and go back and grade myself on my previous years prediction. (It also allows me to keep up the suspense before we get to the snow day prediction which is what everyone wants to know.) Unfortunately Howard County is not an official reporting station for climate data so I will use both Lafayette and Indianapolis as my references.

I predicted cold for December and it turned out to be neutral (or right about average). The bookend theme for last year had everyone going warm in January and like them, I busted with Indy -3.5 degrees and Lafayette -3.1 degrees below normal. Of course the cold snap which brought temperatures below zero for a couple of days including a -19 reading didn't help us out. The bookend idea would have been right had we went warm/cold/warm for December/January/February. February blowtorched with a +3 to +4 above average temperature. Ouch! So I guess I blew the entire winter forecast on temperatures. Grade: F

For snow, I had 50 to 60 inches which is above average. (Note: Howard County has an exceptionally high average due to a single winter in the early 80's either having a unbelievable snowfall or the recorded data being incorrect. I plan to do some additional research on this topic and hopefully can report back sometime later this winter.) Well, the winter was a bust for snow. We had only one snow event which produced a day off from school. The snow event on January 28th dropped 7.5 inches. If not for that one single event, it would have been pretty bleak with the snow totals. Overall we finished with about 12 to 15 inches of snow and far below my predicted 50 to 60 inches and well below any believable normal of 24 to 27 inches which is where I think normal is for Howard County should be. Grade: F

At least my forecast wasn't a complete failure. I predicted four snow days and as you know, snow days are a general term for weather related days off from school. I got three or 75% of my prediction. (I am using Northwestern as my measuring mark but I do believe Eastern and Western took a fourth day off but forget exactly the circumstances.) While only one was from the white stuff, two additional days came about from the frigid temps experienced in January. (You remember January, the month which was supposed to be warm!) I think I can fairly give myself a good mark but I do need to take a little for due to the lack of actual snow events. Grade: B-

2009-2010 Snow Day Prediction: I am going with five snow day (weather related) closures this winter. Of course without my phased monster, I might very well bust. This is before March 15th (unless I need an extension - hehe). Kids - enjoy them!

Revisiting the outlook: I am going to try and revisit my winter outlook a few times this year and should things be heading in a totally different direction, I will adjust accordingly. I should have see it coming last winter with the poor forecast. The only thing which will stand fast will be the snow day prediction of five.

Disclaimer: This outlook is as much for fun as anything else. Don't bet your life or property on it and never risk your financial future on what I am saying. Look to a trained professional for those predictions.

Gratitude: Thanks to the many professional and hobbyist forecasters from the many weather boards and professional weather sites I visit.

Rains Staying West (For Now)...

So far the rain staying to our west and has not moved into our area as first forecast. The NWS has lowered the total amounts to around an inch by Saturday morning and no longer see flooding as a primary concern.

I will mention that this precipitation was shown on the GFS model almost for the early runs 16 days ago. It also showed significant cold with the system and until recently, the two systems phasing together. Just imagine if this was a nice snow storm. *grin*

Wet & Windy on Friday

Look for wet and windy for Friday. Gusts up to 35 MPH plus rainfall amount approaching two inches by Saturday morning are all likely.

Lunchtime update on the weather

While the sun is currently shining, the scattered clouds will not allow for full heating potential so I doubt anyone near our area gets about the middle to upper 60's. The storm showers are already falling across extreme western Kentucky, eastern Illinois, and back west. The system will continue to move in our direction with rain arriving by early evening.

Heavy rain will fall overnight into Saturday morning before tapering off. A solid two inches or more could be possible with the rain. (It will make for sloppy sectional football.)

Currently no flood watches have been issued for our region but I know the NWS is monitoring things closely and could likely post them later this afternoon. The ground remain saturated and waterways was already running off excessive amounts of water.

I hope to get home today to change out the battery of the weather station on the roof before it starts raining.

Also, look for the winter weather forecast summary coming Sunday. I will also announce the snow day predictions for area schools at that time.

Wet & Windy...

Rain will last overnight into Wednesday morning. The best day of the week will be Thursday where temperatures will approach 70 with winds building from the south/southeast. A tight gradient around a deep low pressure will track across the plains into Canada bringing strong winds Friday into Saturday.

Overcast will keep the Friday temperatures down while the moisture could be streaming up from the Gulf. At this time severe weather is not expected but a few thunderstorms are possible. If the models continue to show the second phase of energy slower, windy and wet will continue into Saturday.

More seasonal temperatures for Sunday into Monday with gradually falling through the week.

Wet!

We had over 1.5 inches of rain since midnight and near 2 inches since this started yesterday. It looks like we will have several hours of clearing before some additional rain chances will come in tonight along with the cold front. It won't be nearly as much this go around.

A cooler weekend into Monday before we get near 60 for the early part of next week. Looks for a cooler Halloween coming up.

Goodbye dear friend...

I write this morning not to tell you about upcoming weather but to say goodbye to my friend Spencer. Last evening a terrible turn of unfortunate events cause him to be attacked and injured in his own back yard. While we hope it wounds were superficial, they turned out to be more than the little guy would be able to handle.

Spencer was my first dog and it took 45 years for him to come into my life. I was never keen on dogs having been bitten when I was a small child. When my wife started suggesting we get a dog, I tried to convince her otherwise. However I lost that battle and Spencer was brought to us in April of 2007. He was a rescue which had been abused in his life as a puppy. When we got him he still showed signs of frostbite and was very thin. Spencer was thought to be an older dog since he was frail.

He was still pretty skittish his first few days around here. His abuser was a man so he was particularly afraid of me at first. Over time we became friends. He loved his toys and I would steal them and he would steal them back. I was never allowed to squeak any toy.
One of the reasons I didn’t want a dog was the early, too early morning times they needed to go outside. I like sleeping in and am not a morning person. Spencer was the same. He wouldn’t wake you and would sleep as late as you wanted. When we took him out before work, he would come back in and fall back to sleep. I was told he needed 15 hours of sleep per day and he did get every minute of it.

That isn’t to say he slept his life away. He loved the outdoors. Walking and exploring. Even the seemingly endless mundane walks through the neighborhood were always new to him. Frogs and grasshoppers to other canine friends he wanted to check out them all. He sniffed out the tiniest things and I doubt there was a mailbox post he didn’t mark several dozen times. He even found a couple of moles and dug them up ridding the world of those worthless creatures.

His exploring took on all new meanings when we went to new places. Besides local favorites like the dog park or pet store, he love to ride in a car anywhere. His made travels too many states including a trip last fall to Arkansas. He was on a canoe and discovered minnows and chased them up and down the shoreline. He never once batted an eye about being in the camper around the animals. His energy and enthusiasm never ended on that trip until we made the long drive home. He found a comfortable spot among the camping gear in the truck and slept the entire 14 hour drive home only hopping out for potty breaks.

He recently attended dog camp with Jeri, my wife, in Wisconsin for four days. She has a wonderful memory of the two of them together and I am ever so grateful she had a pet photo professionally taken while there.

Last evening started out like so many in our house. I came home Spencer greeted me wanting to hit the outside. We went out and walked down a few houses before he decided needed to go back to sit in his spot in our, no his back yard and watch over it.

The neighbor has two dogs including a large back lab which would stroll through our yard. Spencer didn’t like that at all. The lab knew Spencer put on a fierce show and would always walk a wide berth around his area. However Spencer thought the yard next door was his too. He would watch over it until the two dogs were back inside.

He was out keeping watch when a dog a on the street behind us broke though the door and took off. The owner gave a good chase but he zipped with into Spencer territory. Without hesitation, Spencer defended what was his and the large dog attacked right back. It was just a few seconds before the other dogs owner was there trying to hold back her dog. A few seconds after that Jeri and I were outside helping Spencer inside that even with his injuries wanted to stay out and defend both his space, us, and the other dogs owner.

We knew he was bleeding badly when we got him inside and he wanted to hide and be left alone. Jeri coaxed him out as I found an emergency animal hospital open late in Carmel. I drove as fast as possible. We could see he was in pain.

While there, he was a trouper. He stood up so people could see his wounds and when he was put into his cage and before he received any pain medication, he came to me and wagged his tail trying to say he was going to be ok. He had much more than superficial wounds. His recovery if he made it through surgery to repair damaged internal organs would be slow and painful and he likely would not ever be the same. When we came back to see him several hours later, he was in severe pain even with his morphine drip and antibiotics. He knew we were there and allowed up to say a tearful goodbye never once being angry with us or snapping.

Today he is sleeping in before starting his first day with the big dogs in the sky. I hope the place is filled with squirrels and rabbits he can catch and maybe some flowing creeks with minnows jump after. He will always be missed with his comfort and companionship. Spencer, I love you.

Warm Week Ahead

Looks for more seasonal week with temperature in the 60's to near 70. Overnight lows will hover just below 50. It will be a good early in the week to finish up the outdoor chores since rain should hold off until the end of the week. Possible severe weather somewhere in the Plains to Ohio Valley late in the week also. Lots of late season uncertainty so nobody has a prediction out yet but many eyes are on the potential.

Did WWKI Say Snow?

Yes, several people in the office just had their jaw drop to the floor when WWKI mentioned a chance for a rain/snow mix on Friday morning. It wont be an accumulating snow but some mixed in heavy wet flakes.

The 850 mb (5000 ft) temperatures are -3 to -5 Celsius with thickness values in the 533 to 538 range. Surface temperatures are still above freezing so it won't stick at least.

I hope you like rain...

While the rain amounts won't be anything like last week, it looks like each day/night through Friday will carry with it the chance of rain. By the end if the week, expect a total of 3/4" to an inch. The temperature will also remain seasonally cool with highs only mid to upper 40's.

October Cold

There has been a large portion of the continental US with below normal temperatures for the first 1/3 of the month. It looks to continue with local temperatures not getting anywhere near normal through end of the month.

Rain Continues...

The rain continues but should end by evening. Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches has fallen so far and less than an additional half inch is likely. While it continues to rain, there is some good news to report.

The rain has been slow & steady which has allowed the dry ground to absorb the water so I have seen little evidence of standing water. While we remain under a flood watch, I don't foresee any flood warnings in our near future.

Additional good news relating to the temperatures. While the forecast models have been advertising a deep plunge of cold air in the long and medium range, the more accurate short range portion of the models has backed way off. While we will still see seasonal readings with slightly cooler than normal mornings, the deep freeze which looked eminent is now on hold for a little while longer.

More Rain...

We have reached an inch of rain so far with this wet system over the region. The rain will continue through the night with an additional inch possible before noon tomorrow. The heaviest rain has remained south and east and that trend should continue.

One item of concern is 22 West has new pavement and just a temporary center line. It was not fun driving on it during the daytime. Anyone traveling it overnight should slow down and be alert.

Flood Watch

We are under a Flood Watch from the NWS from this afternoon into Friday afternoon. A significant rain making system will be across the area with with widespread 1 to 2 inches across much of Indiana with areas south of I-70 seeing the potential for twice that amount.

To our southwest in Illinois into Missouri will see potential amounts of 4 plus inches. I wouldn't be surprised to find some Indiana schools on a delay tomorrow due to the excessive rain causing flooded roads.

The threat for severe weather across our area is minimal but cannot be ruled out 100%. A strong cell could possibly pop up amongst the mess.

Cold & Wet Weather Coming Soon...

It looks like the end of the week will be a wet one with heavy rains from Missouri into Indiana. Models indicate amounts of 1 to 2 inches in Indiana with possible localized heavy rain of 3 inches or more.

A cold shot is going to follow with temperatures across the weekend into next week with low temperature near freezing. While I do not expect any snow in our area, some light coatings could occur Iowa and northwestern Illinois.

Winter Forecasts

Winter Forecasts: Make it cold and snowy...

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The new watch includes Kokomo and extends down into southern Indiana. The first round of storms are already here...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued Overnight

It looks like some possible stormy weather in the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch is to our north and east. (A tornado watch is to our west/northwest.) Keep your weather radios on when you go to bed after the Colts victory.

Wind Advisory (9/28)

A wind advisory was issued by the NWS beginning 8 AM Monday morning through 8 PM in the evening. Strong winds behind a cold front could gust to 40 MPH with sustained winds over 25 MPH. Blustery conditions will remain into Tuesday but will be below advisory criteria. Cooler temperatures will also arrive with a Tuesday high in the middle 50's.

Later this week a possible severe weather event across the area looks possible.

Interesting Comments From a Meteorologist on Facebook

URRRGGGHHHH - The weather map is starting to look ugly in the longer range. I see nothing but stormy weather, colder weather and Yes perhaps even the first snow flakes of the season...

Henry Margusity
Accuweather.com

Looking at the GFS a couple weeks out does show possible flakes for Indiana. I also have seen a couple of excellent winter forecasts showing a snowy winter for Indiana. :)

Cooler Weather Coming

Not surprising since it is fall but cooler weather for next week is forecast. The weather models have been showing a a deep trough down from Canada which should deliver cooler and wetter overall along the eastern third of the US. With the negative tilt and closed low, a nice severe fall outbreak is possible.

Mundane Weather Continues...

The weather pattern has been pretty boring from the perspective of a weather enthusiast. Of course for those wanting nice weather that is not to hot or cold, it has been pretty close to perfect. That pattern looks to continue for the next week.

At least some of the winter forecasts for 09-10 are starting to show up weather sites and forums. A few I have seen will make the winter weather lovers very happy. I will review them and put out a nice summary sometime in October.

Until then, I guess will will just continue to enjoy the nice weather.

Howard County Weather Wall

The Howard County Weather Wall stops a storm in its tracks again. *yawn*

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR.
HAMILTON COUNTY IN CNTL IN.
WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN CNTL IN.
HOWARD COUNTY IN CNTL IN.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KOKOMO.
MARION COUNTY IN CNTL IN.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF INPOLIS.
TIPTON COUNTY IN CNTL IN.

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1213 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKFORT TO PLAINFIELD.& MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR.
INPOLIS INT`L AIRPORT AROUND 1220 PM EDT.
RUSSIAVILLE AROUND 1225 PM EDT.
GALVESTON AROUND 1230 PM EDT.
INDIAN HEIGHTS AROUND 1235 PM EDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 656

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

945 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 400 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE INDIANA TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MUNCIE INDIANA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 654...WW 655...

DISCUSSION...BOWING MCS...POSSIBLE DERECHO...EVOLVING OVER IL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY TRACK ESEWD ACROSS IND LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IND WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ADD TO FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING...

AND WHERE TRAINING OCCURS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SWRN IND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.

Maybe believing was enough...

It looks like a watch is coming soon for our area. I still think the heaviest weather will go south.

Believing isn't enough...

I think everything will remain south for us today. While we might see some stray action and likely rain, I am not anticipating any significant or widespread severe threat north of I-70. However don't be fooled into not keeping an eye on things. The weather has a funny way of doing what it wants. We are still in the slight risk area and updates will be as warranted.

I am going to beleve...

This has been one of the most boring stretches of weather in a very long time. The SPC has issues a Day 3 Slight Risk for our area for Tuesday. The set up is not great but the underlying threat is there. I am going to believe and maybe, just maybe some storms will break the boring weather pattern.

Also, some indications the weather will be more August like with heat by the middle of the month.

Dare I say it?

Some thunderstorms are slowly popping up across the area and back into Illinois. Maybe we can get some severe action today!

STORMS COMING

The storms are coming. I would say by 9 PM we should be close if not into the action. Heading out to storm spot...

New Tornado Watch Until 3 AM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOUTH
BEND INDIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 478...WW 480...WW
481...WW 482...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN INDIANA MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A LARGE DEVELOPING MCS TO THE W IN IL WILL MOVE ACROSS
INDIANA AND INTO OH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS MERGE WITH THE LARGER MCS...AND WHERE
THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
INDIANA/OH.

Severe Weather May Be Blossoming

A new cell riding the Benton County/Warren County line is the first signs the cap is letting something initiate. We will have to wait and see if this is a false start or the beginning of the real deal.

The track of the cell look to hit Logansport. It has not been severe enough for a warning yet.

New Day, Same Problem...

Severe weather is being held in check by a rather stout cap in place. A quote from the Indianapolis NWS AFD...

WIDESPREAD STORMS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ALONG THE CNTRL IN BOUNDARY DUE TO A STG 700 MB CAP (12 DEGREES CELSIUS)IN PLACE.

Tornado Watch

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.