We have something to track...

After a lot of frustrations, I don't know why I am allowing myself to jump on early to the late week system but I am going to jump in with both feet. (I can only imagine my frustration should be get another miss. That entry might not be family friendly if you know what I mean.)

I won't outline any details yet but allow me to post the DGEX snow map. (Remember it was rather accurate on the path of the last system. (I am not sure how it did on totals.))

I will not get sucked in yet...

Just when I give winter an F, it might have a little something in store for me...

From the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Office

FRI-SAT...SW CONUS IMPULSE WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP GIVEN AN OPEN GULF. AS STATED ABOVE...SYSTEM TRACK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. WAVE PHASING WILL BE PARAMOUNT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWS LOCALLY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN LARGE VARIABILITY IN THESE FEATURES AT THIS TIME FRAME...ALL OPTIONS REMAIN ON THE TABLE PER THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE FA. FELT A LOW CHANCE POP WAS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME...WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT ABOVE CONCERNS.

Winter: Your F Is Well Deserved...

Winter deserves a big fat F. Just over two weeks ago, I was graded winter as a B-. Honestly I was not of sound mind when I did that. Less than a week earlier, there was a decent clipper system and we were in the middle of a deep freeze across the area.

I somehow looked past the previous misses and thought that my time would come and that encouragement would be better than harshness. I will leave that all behind and expose the cold hard facts leaving no doubt that winter deserves nothing less than an F.

This is an El Niño winter. With that type of winter, everyone suffers. Winter is warm and snowless and storms ride through the south out to see. Instead many people have seen snow and not just ho-hum nuisance snows which we have mainly seen but instead great or even historic snows. Oklahoma, a plains state known for being in the heart of tornado alley has had two significant winter storms producing paralyzing snow and ice.

Des Moines, Iowa which shares much of the same lattitude as us is preparing to break the longest streak of having 5 or more inches of snow on the ground. Over 41 inches has fallen since December 1. Several blizzards have crossed over their area.

I will just give a passing mention to the east coast and middle Atlantic states who have seen record snow storms. They are still gloating about it and think they deserve more.

We have been nickled and dimed to death and have just 17 inches.

What is the really frustration is the wasted cold. First, it wasn't even supposed to be cold but rather above normal temperatures were to cover most of the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley area. Nope, long duration cold snaps and even when we saw some warmth, it was barely above seasonal and nothing to enjoy.

Winter fail. Looking ahead, it seems very bleak for our area while other areas will again reap another widespread snow. The currently system which we followed for more than a week only to see it go south and dump significant snow looks likely to repeat next week. This once isn't even over and they are already salivating over the chance at another. Winter cancel.

My spirit is more broken than an Olympic athlete who just missed a gold medal by less than a tenth of a second. I give up on winter and will walk away knowing you are nothing but a cold snowless SOB. I won't be back anytime soon. See my heart is headed to Miami where I can enjoy my Indianapolis Colts win the Superbowl. Winter, top that why dontcha.

FAIL FAIL FAIL...

Simple Forecast...

Nothing to report on the storm so I will just knock out a forecast that should take us through the weekend. (If this storm does take sudden turn and come our way, everyone would be taken by surprise.)

Overnight look for less than one inch of snow. Winds will increase and stay gusty on Thursday.

Single digit lows through the weekend with highs around 20 degrees each day. The weekend will have some sun too.

No precipitation until the start of next week where a rain/snow mix will be likely. No significant accumulations are expected.

Have a great weekend.

Does The Polar Vortex Crush?

The cold polar vortex is what is supposed to drive the storm system south. However there have been some minor adjustments north with the system overnight by several models including the GFS and Euro. If the polar vortex isn't as much of an influence, we could sneak on to the northern edge of the system. We are just 125-150 miles from basically nothing like the forecast now to getting 2 to 6 inches. A sliver of hope remains...

No Changes...

The snow is still south...

Good Morning | Bleak Outlook Ahead

Unless there is a miracle, there will be no snow for the end of the week. School administrators will be able to sleep in knowing they won't have to give up a snow day (or even a delay) on Friday.

I can see a lot of volatile systems on the forecast models but most are a swing and a miss for us. I don't see a warm up anytime soon but I also don't see it being as cold as it was the first part of January.

Well, maybe I can get some of my other work done I have procrastinated on in real life.

ALERT: Current Weather Situation

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
AT 11 PM EST IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE POWDERY SNOW
COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN VERY SLICK AND SNOW COVERED CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES DO TO THE
BLOWING SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA
TIME DRIVING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

Hope Still Exists...

Not that I have any but one of the more level headed meteorologists made this comment tonight...

We need to get about another 36-48 hour. The problem is that the dynamics are still some 1000km W of the WC of N/A. Time and time again, we see abrupt model changes when the dynamics in question come over land and into the physical sounding grid (radio soundes as opposed to interpolation schemes or satellite derived soundings).

What that means is for the average Joe is we need to wait for the storm system which is currently out in the Pacific Ocean to come ashore where more accurate readings of the atmosphere can be taken. Then the models might make a correction to the storms path.

Those changes are usually for a northwest trend which in this situation should work in our favor. I hope he is right...

I Hate This Hobby...

I am trying to find reasons to think something will change to give me a chance at the end of the week system. I suppose anything is possible but I think my chances for hitting the Powerball on Wednesday look better us getting significant snow. Here are some of the latest models and their snow or precipitation path. It doesn't take a meteorologist to see the main swath is headed for the middle Atlantic states. I still wouldn't rule out a couple of inches but a complete snowless bust is likely. I hate this hobby... (I will offer a glimmer of hope at the very end.)






HOPE: There is a glimmer of hope if you look over the 15 best matching analogs for the current weather pattern. In fact the famous Christmas 2002 snow storm which came out of nowhere is on the list.

Still waiting...

I don't have much time to do a detailed lunch update but no significant changes. The snow looks south but I think a NW shift will come sometime soon. While I think the big phased snow system idea is gone, a shift north would still give us a moderate snow (under 6 inches).

Going the Distance...

I am going to keep hope alive and I think there is a 100 to 200 mile shift north still coming with this system sometime in the next 36 hours. Yeah, I may go down with the ship.

Oh Noes!

While it is still a good 24 or even 36 hours before we can write off the big snow for the end of the week, I have seen more discouraging signs this morning than I had previously. Hopefully it is just a blip and we will get back on track with things but confidence is starting to wobble.

Raining Weekend & Then...

Look for rain to start before midnight and then continue thru Sunday evening. Additionally look for moderate winds to continue from the south keeping temperatures warm. Some thunder is possible overnight into the Sunday morning. Nothing severe.

The snow pack is all but gone but look for some snow Monday and Tuesday to cover the ground. One or maybe two inches tops and not likely to create a snow day.

Of course I could talk about the late week storm but I will hold off just saying a lot of solutions continue to be presented by the various forecast models. The good news is many are very favorable to us getting a big snow.

[UPDATED Friday Evening] Detailing the GFS...

I am going to update this blog entry until think we have something that requires a new entry. Look to the bottom for the updates.

The GFS has been pretty good showing the system next week so I think it might be fun to take the latest run and just detail it out.

It starts off badly on Thursday morning for school decision makers. Snow will be forecast and to be heavy by the afternoon but will just be starting about the time buses roll for school. At 1 PM, snow will be increasing in intensity. By now there will be 3 to 4 inches on the ground. Moisture will be ample at 700 mb and the Gulf of Mexico is getting ready to open up wide. Some good news is the winds will be around 5 to 10 MPH. Thicknesses are excellent. Is this system prefect, no. The system from the north doesn't phase with the system from the south until it is well past us.


Twelve hours later and the rubber is meeting the road. Another 4 to 6 inches has fallen and with the low now over Columbus, OH, winds have wrapped around to the northwest at 12 to 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. The temperatures have also begun to nosedive into the low 20's.


Of course Friday is a snow day and an easy call for once. I doubt anyone will even need to drive the roads to make the call. The system finally quits snowing Friday afternoon after after 30 hours. We now have 6 to 10+ inches on the ground. Winds are really churning the snow now with 20 MPH gusting to 30.


Things finally settle down by Saturday morning and having a foot of snow on the ground is not unfathomable. This is a heavy wet snow. We are in single digits with the temperatures and blowing and drifting is still a problem. Some bad news, I won't get one or two snow days since this falls on the weekend. Oh well...

I won't post maps but by Monday afternoon, another but less powerful system comes up through the south and drops another 2 to 4 inches through Tuesday. Temperatures will hover around 20 degrees and winds will be 5 to 10 MPH gusting to 15 MPH. Since the previous system's snow will still be on the ground, consider Tuesday another snow day.

The end of the week shows a clipper dropping down and another couple of inches to pile on.

Of course this is just a fictional account of the 18z GFS model run. There will be many more possible solutions presented over the next week and I think we need to get this weekends rain and possible severe weather event out of the way before the models start to show what will really happen. But we can dream and the several models have the system and various states including a nice phase which would make my fantasy forecast above look like a tea party.

A weather friend of mine alerted me to this tasty treat. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) does 8-14 day analog comparisons. The map below is right in the time frame of the scenario outlined above. In the lower right, it points out dates that are very similar with the overall pattern. Notice the 1978 blizzards are comparable analogs. Many that sure would be sweet if this verifies.

[Friday AM Update] So I has asked if I believe that next weeks snow storm could be like the blizzard of 1978. While the pattern may resemble 1978, it won't be nearly as bad. We won't have have the bitter cold and the winds won't be nearly as strong or last as long so I don't think true blizzard conditions will happen. Also, one thing has changed since the blizzards of the late 70's...

In those days most fields still were bordered by fences. On rural roads, snow would fill in and drift between the fences. Today most of those fences have ben removed so that doesn't happen as bad anymore.

The NOGAPS shows a nice phase and system.



[Friday Evening Update] When can we begin to believe? Lots more model support. The DGEX model is on board and the 18z GFS cranks it up a notch. Think 12-18 inches plus of snow! WOW!



DGEX

Area Forecast Discussion from Indianapolis

IN THE EXTENDED...TRANSITION TO A MUCH COLDER PATTERN 
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
REESTABLISHES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE POLAR VORTEX TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. IN WAKE OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...
TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK. LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR LATE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES APPEAR TO FAVOR
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
AS WELL AS AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JET ENERGY ARE GREAT AT THIS POINT. HAVE INSERTED
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

Quick Update

Things seem better outside for now. We could see some additional freezing rain tonight but again, we are right on the temperature line so it if hard to say if we will repeat or be fine.

I do think after Sunday we will return to colder temperatures. The GFS has been cold three runs in a row and there remains a lot of potential for one of three storms to phase into a monster sometime the the middle of next week into the first week of February. I do still really like the storm chances for the last weekend of the month. Even if we don't get the blizzard, a solid shot of 2 to 4 inches of heavy wet snow has been shown a fair number of times for the longer range forecast models.

Freezing Rain Advisory Extended

The advisory has been extended until noon today. Tonight looks like a repeat of last night. of course everything is right on the borderline temperature wise so a small shift upward in temperatures will not cause the problem we are seeing now.

...and people - SLOW DOWN! A lot of slide offs due to people driving to fast. A few have been more serious roll over accidents.

Yea for school closing (including Kokomo-Center). I now have two of my predicted five for the season.

Freezing Rain Advisory

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME ICY AND
 TREACHEROUS.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS: LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ICE
 ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING: OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Rain & Freezing Rain

For our area, this is more of a nuisance event for us. Spotty rain and freezing rain is possible through Friday morning. Nothing significant expected at this time but do watch for possible slick spots. School delays are possible but don't expect one.

Ice Threat Updated

The models are not showing the freezing rain to be mainly Iowa and central Illinois. We might just get spared.

Ice Threat

Looks like the threat from freezing rain has grown a bit larger overnight. Ice accumulations up to 1/4" are possible with the system Wednesday into Thursday.

The Storm Parade Explained...

The first storm system come in this Wednesday. It should bring rain and freezing rain chances. Nothing significant but around .25" of rain and less than .10" of freezing rain late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It has limited potential for a school delay at this point. We are right on the border right now and we could surprisingly flip dry or to an inch of snow but the latter seems remote.

This weekend into the first of next week is the first real chance for some snow. We will start off with rain Saturday evening thru Sunday evening. Then we will switch over to snow. Snow into Tuesday noon looks light at this time with 1 to 2 inches.

After that we look at next Friday into the first few days of February. This system continues to look rather juicy. Anywhere from .5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation looks to fall through Wednesday. The forecast model ends there but I would guess the moisture would continue through the end of the week. The problem is the temperatures are all over the place. Some runs show rain and some snow a rain snow mix. At this point I am not deeply concerned since we are more than a week away and I do enjoy some people making comparisons to the Great Blizzard of 1978. (Yeah, I said it, 1978!)

January Temps & The Storm Parade...

Looks like we are still cold for the month but I suspect we will be near average when it finishes.


It looks like a pretty good storm parade over the next two weeks. I hope to make a small road map of them later tonight.

More Freezing Fog

FREEZING FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING & THUS FREEZING FOG WILL RESULT. UNTREATED ROADWAYS.BRIDGES & OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE FOG WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY.

FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AFTER 11 PM & CONTINUE UNTIL TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM MONDAY.

UNTREATED SURFACES MAY BECOME ICY & CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING.SLOW DOWN. USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS.& LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. ALSO.BE ALERT FOR FROST ON BRIDGE DECKS CAUSING SLIPPERY ROADS.

Still Thawing...

There was some discussion about a significant warm up and some are still saying it is still coming but I just don't see it. Last Thursday was the high mark for temperatures with 41. We were 38 on Friday and 34 on Saturday. Rather than a warm up, I think this is more of a gradual thaw.

The last few days of the month and the first couple of next month show a very active and stormy period. While the details on exactly how this plays out are still in question, there is a lot of evidence to support one or more storms with potential large impacts of wintry weather will be likely. The thing I like most about the pattern during this time is that we have ample moisture showing up. Sometimes there is marginal temperatures but so far the long range GFS has been too warm so I am hopeful it is too warm in that time frame too.

Did someone say clippers?

Just jumping back on my long range forecast, I called for clippers/over performing clippers. Yesterday a meteorologist wrote his take on the long range European weeklies (in February) and I felt it needed to be posted...

--Below-normal precipitation for the central U.S. and Midwest, but some clipper storms may change that in the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes.

Yeah baby!

Now back to our vigil for the blizzard at the end of the month...

The Joke's On You!

Since it looks like a rather dull weekend weather wise other than some fog overnight into Saturday and some rain on Sunday, I figure I should jump back on the previous post talking about the January 31st blizzard.

Yeah, I said blizzard and sometime around January 31st/February 1st. There are a lot of reason to like the idea of this storm. Many of the long range forecasters who talk in teleconnections and other scientific mumbo jumbo have long targeted this time for a major potential storm.

Both the GFS and Euro show this storm system.

Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi mentions the cold and some very interesting analogs when comparing El Niño previous years to this one. See his video here - http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=44795589001


There seems like a lot of support for a storm. Many, many people who are much smarter than me are calling this system to be much like the classic blizzards we saw in the late 70's. Remember those?
So while cannot say we will get hit from this system, I think someone will get pummeled with snow from this system.

What do I suggest for now? Let's keep watching and hoping.

I will come back and revisit this Sunday and let you know what everyone is thinking. It is going to be a long month. (By the way I am tracking something for next week too but not nearly as sexy. Expect an update on Sunday too.)

January 31st Blizzard

I fully endorse this happening! (Don't panic, it is a long way off and I just want to remind everyone winter is not over just becasued it warmed up a little.)

No Weekend Storm & Something Interesting...

There will be no weekend storm for us. It looks rather quiet through the period. No huge warm up and in fact today's 41 degree temperature might be the high mark for us. I do want to acknowledge the slight chance of freezing drizzle after midnight into the morning but it won't amount to much. Some freezing fog might also appear. Very limited chance for school to be delayed tomorrow.

There does seem to an interesting development today regarding the warm up which had been forecast for the last half of January. It seems that the torch might not happen after all. In fact some of the long range Euro weeklies which are usually some of the best forecast models for long range pattern recognition are showing no lasting warm up and in fact are showing a very favorable pattern for big snow systems. The American GFS model is also showing a lot of storminess over the next 16 days. I am liking what I am hearing.

Finally Above Freezing

We finally made it above freezing for the first time in 2010. It happened at 12:30 when we hit 32.2. That is 300.5 hours of below freezing temperatures in a row. (Actually add in a few more for the 31st but I don't have that detailed of a record.) By the way, the last time we were above 40 was Christmas Day. The last 50 was December 14th and we have to go all the way back into November for 60's.

Looks for a few more days of warmth but the bug warm up advertised near the 60's for the end of next week doesn't look likely. More like 30's and 40's for the highs.

Some slim chances for freezing drizzle Thursday evening into Friday. Nothing significant and we are more likely to get nothing. Just pay attention to conditions should the rain fall. Some things might be deceiving slick.

The jury is still out on the weekend storm. I have not given it much thought but I see not everyone has given up. No big snow but some possible freezing drizzle or even a light snow is possible. I will keep you informed as I know more...

Mid Winter Grade

December, January, and February make up meteorological winter. We are now at the middle point and I figure I might as well issue a mid term grade. I think a B- has been earned so far. The recent cold snap and over performing clipper is all that save an otherwise mediocre winter of nuisance snows.

The reason for the low grade is rather simple, three big snows hit the eastern half of the US and none hit here. I suppose if I used a sliding scale and based the grade on an El Niño year, then it would deserve an A but I am not one to give special treatment.

Winter does have a chance to redeem itself and earn a higher grade. After what I think will be a halfhearted warm up over the next ten days or so, winter needs to get back to it roots and bring a big snow to the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes.

Big Snow = 10+ inches IMBY (in my back yard) and blowing and drifting. A minimum if two snow days are also required.

As for the warm up that is coming, while I see the 850mb temps warming, I think the snow pack will temper the warmer air and make for luke warm few days.

Enjoy The Snow Pack...

You should enjoy the snow pack while we have it. I doubt we will be adding to it this week and I suspect all but the man made piles will be gone by this time next week. A warm up is on the way and the end of the week/weekend storm looks like a miss. While I won't say a 100% miss just yet, it doesn't look favorable.

Just for those keeping score, we have seen 15 inches of snow this season. I do think my 16-20 inch prediction for this winter is in jeopardy.

I will say if we are destine to warm up, I want it in 50+. I am not looking forward to a warm up if it is just minor.

Have a great week. I suspect we won't have much to talk the next couple of days.

Snow Tomorrow & Late Week Fun...

Looks for around an inch or so with the clipper system tomorrow. It should make for a fresh coating to our snow and cause some slick roads. Be careful.


A warm up seems likely but the question is will it be before or after the late week storm and what will that storm track actually be. The DGEX shows a pretty sweet storm. One thing I like is a forecaster who has a bad track record this winter has said well that solution is well in a word absurd... there is much better chance of this system passing to the south so that it misses BWI and DCA altogether rather than go up the Ohio valley. Hopefully another bad call.

Our Next Clipper System & Late Week Forecast

Another clipper will hit Indiana on Monday. The snow should hit right around the morning drive into work or school. However it won't turn like last time. Around one inch or less will fall by evening. After the clipper passes, lake effect snow will again crank up and we could continue to see snow at times through Tuesday. The primary issue will be slick driving conditions so as always slow down and allow plenty of stopping distance. (I don't expect any school delays or cancellations from the system.)

Speaking of lake effect snow, Friday night saw LES over a wide area of the northern 2/3 of Indiana. In central Indiana, we were in the sweet spot when looking at the snowfall map. (Well, not Greentown; sorry.)


The end of the week is still a huge question mark. More and more it does seem to want to warm up and the system looks to track south so what moisture we do see from the Gulf of Mexico will be rain. Unlike clipper systems which come down with the cold air, the systems from the south can bring up warm air with the moisture and cause mixing issues with the precipitation. We need to keep watching to determine what will be our fate.

Long Range

The group thinking in the weather world is we will see a warming trend for the latter portions of January. Some see it as just more seasonal which would be a warm up from the deep freeze pattern we have been experiencing. Other think it flips completely the other way and we see almost spring like temperatures. A couple of professional meteorologists are thinking the cold pattern is saved at the last minute and we continue the deep freeze. I think a more relaxed period will happen where we will continue to see some snow chances.

However I will show the GFS which is showing a solid warm up in the last portion of the forecast range. The GFS is usually fantasy land in this range but it can lock correctly into broad and wide scale patterns while still being wrong on the details. Any, take a look...


Just a follow up mention about last nights low temperatures. We didn't dip below zero as many had forecast. I saw the writing on the wall yesterday morning and adjusted my forecast accordingly. Other didn't. *smile* We hit 6.2 for our low. That is still darn cold though...

Saturday Housekeeping...

Yeah, I have to help the wife do some real housekeeping after breakfast but a few things I need to toss out now that the snow is generally over but for a quick forecast.

Some additional light accumulations are possible today from LES and a clipper system will bring a bit more snow will come from a weak clipper system Monday into Tuesday. I don't see it being more than an inch at this time. It will be just enough to spruce up the snow cover we already have. I doubt I have to reiterate how cold it is outside. Bundle up if you are going out and expect overnight lows near zero. Some cloud cover is forecast & might keep us from falling into the negative values. Watching a potential system for the end of next week into the weekend. It could bring warm temperatures and a rain/snow mix. (ugh!)

Are you interested in Severe Weather? The 2010 Severe Weather Symposium in Central Indiana is March 13th. It is sponsored my the National Weather Service and Central Indiana Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. It is open to anyone wishing to attend. Event details including registration forms are here.

Also put March 20th on your calendar for local Skywarn training in Howard County. More details to follow.

There is an interesting article in today's Indianapolis Star on private weather services used by local governments. Read it here.

It has been a cold start to the year more than 10 degrees below normal. Still no temperature above freezing for 2010.



I promised a review of the decade last week but this storm and other commitments has kept me from doing that. I will promise to not forget and hope to do that tomorrow.

If you want to see a great exchange between head of the UK meteorological office and a BBC interviewer, click here. It is quite entertaining.

That is it for now. Have a great weekend and stay warm.

LES Overnight...

Lake Effect Snow has been dusting the area this evening and looks to continue into the overnight. You can see how nicely it shows up on the radar. (This is Radar Scope for the iPhone or iPod Touch.)

Updated: Winter Weather Advisory Extended...

Update: The WWA has been extended to 10 PM tonight.

The Winter Weather Advisory was extended until 1 PM today. Light accumulating snow of less than 1/2 inch plus winds could continue to cause blowing and drifting.

Cold temperatures will be the talk of the weekend. Looks for below zero temperatures for Saturday night as the sky clears out. Dress warm if you are out and be prepared if you become stuck some place. Roads will continue to have slick conditions for the weekend.

School Delays

Northwestern, Eastern, Taylor, and Kokomo-Center have already called for a two hour delay for tomorrow (Friday1/8). Enjoy everyone! (Sorry but no word for Western at 10 PM and I am hitting the hay early for a good nights sleep. If I knew something, I would tell ya'!)

Thursday Evening Storm Update

Well, we made it through the snow today. I think 5 to 6 inches is the final snow amount right now. Some winds overnight could cause blowing and drifting and reduce visibilities and these conditions could linger into Friday. Some lake effect snow does look to produce some additional accumulating snow over the next could of days. Roads could become slick rather quickly when we have the snow bursts.

Cold will be the dominate headline through the weekend. An overnight low near 10 then a rebound tomorrow to near 20 or just above and then the real deep freeze begins with near or below zero overnight temperatures and a high Saturday and Sunday in the low to middle teens. Wind chills will be near zero or below for the entire weekend.

We will see a warm up into the 20's for Monday when another clipper should bring additional accumulating snow. This system looks to have much lower total currently with 1 to 2 inches possible.

I have heard some talk about the upcoming warm up for next week. Well all things are relative and the temperature increase will be warmer than the current cold snap but highs for the mid to late week will be just slightly above freezing and that could change. We have yet to see any temperature above freezing in 2010.

School Delays and Cancellations

Before I make a call about tomorrow, I want to address a the topic of school delays and cancellations. I do enjoy hyping the possibility of a delay or better yet a cancellation. It is a lot of fun but remember, I am just doing it for fun and remember I have no actual knowledge or influence on the decision making process at any area school. (I couldn't make these predictions if I did.)

The school administrators who make the decision don't take it lightly and any decision won't make everyone happy. There are many factors which weigh in on the decision and if they or anyone had a crystal ball to know exactly what the weather would do or how the roads will be, the decision would be easy.

Rather than focus on the days events and what many thought should have been an obvious call to cancel, lets go back to 2/1/2008. The entire week was spent talking about the big storm system Thursday night into Friday. Every forecast model showed it. Every TV weather person bought into it. The National Weather Service issued warnings for it.

Calls were for 8 to 10 inches. I saw the forecast was going to bust at the very last minute and reduced my call to 4 to 6 inches which I had earlier in the week. Snow was forecast to be ongoing at the start of school and throughout the day. Schools cancelled.

Well, it snowed but about 150 miles to our north. We ended up with 1.5 inches with a few scattered reports of 2.5 inches. It was a complete bust. (Take a look back at the very active blog for the end of January and the start of February 2008.) I am sure there were a lot of people critical of the decision to cancel school when by all accounts, it looked like the right decision at the time.

So I say please give school administrators the benefit of the doubt in these decisions and know they didn't just casually make their call.

On today's call, I said all county schools would likely use the delay then cancel tactic to make sure the snow was coming. Western did exactly that. However the other three county school decided to go on time and I suspect they all had the idea to dismiss early in their heads from the beginning. Kokomo Center did go on time and stay all day and while I did something unusual when I included them in my prediction, I don't have to include that call in my overall snow day grading.

So even though three school went on time and only one cancelled completely, the three dismissed early and all county sports and after school activities where cancelled, I am going to go ahead and count this as a snow day. That means I have now made one of the five predicted snow days. Yes, I know some will dispute my decision but tough! ;-)

For Friday, I think I can confidently say there will be two hour delays for the area county schools. I have a moderate degree of confidence that one or more will cancel but won't put my 100% money back guarantee on it. I am not even going to try and decide what Kokomo Center will do. Too many variables in their equation and some are driven by factors not even closely related to the weather or road conditions. In the future, I will stick to county schools in my predictions.

As always, my predictions are for entertainment purposes. Students and parents should always prepare for school. Have a safe evening and stay inside and warm.

Almost 5 inches...

I think we are just about to 5 inches at the 2 PM hour. We should make that before all is said and done later this afternoon. Looks for continued lighter accumulations off and on into Saturday from lake effect snow. Additionally blowing and drifting looks like the next problem. That should occur overnight into Friday...

3.5 inches @ 11:15 AM

Now 3.5" in Kokomo (OKK) and heaviest bands ready to move through over the next 60 to 90 minutes.

Winter Sotrm Warning

...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MAY
RESULT IN MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

INZ021-028>031-035-036-043-044-072245-
/O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0001.100107T1441Z-100107T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KIND.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100108T1200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
VERMILLION-PARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE
941 AM EST THU JAN 7 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

* ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. HEAVY
SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

* SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL FALL THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY

Updated @ 9:30 AM: Sorry Kids...

Looks like my snow day guess was off for today. See you at school! Watch for changes here -

http://www.wthr.com/Global/link.asp?L=70988&nav=menu188_3_2

and here -

http://wwki.com/Article.asp?id=539396&spid=21432

Otherwise I am still liking my forecast for the day.

Update 8:10 AM - Western did follow my scenrio where they delayed then closed for Thursday.

Update: 9:30 AM - Taylor School Corporation dismissing at noon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories...

Amazing how one clipper system plus cold temperatures can result in so many watches and warnings.

While we are waiting...

Just a few thoughts tonight as we wait for the arrival for the storm...

Anyone realize we have not seen an above freezing temperature in 2010? Maybe next week we can get above 32 but it won't be by much or last very long.

Snow looks good and I think LES will continue to add a couple of inches by Saturday morning. It is really cranking according to the models.

Already an inch fallen on Peoria, IL.

I have heard some discussion that a bit of Gulf moisture might be injecting itself into the system.

All we can do now is wait and see how it all unfolds. I still feel good about things including school closing for Thursday and Friday. (I wouldn't be surprised to see a delay then close scenario on Thursday. I know, those suck.)


Oh, might as well show some love to the snow map which shows 8 to 10 inches by 7 PM on Saturday! Lots of blowing and drifting to accompany the system. There is even a speck of 10 to 12 just east of Kokomo!

Noon Update for Wednesday...

Overall things remain on track as forecast last evening. I did see this morning the NWS dropped their amounts from 4-7" to 4-6" which is just an inch off the top end. However the snow looks to linger more on the back end with light snow into the weekend. Don't anticipate any upgrade to the winter storm watch from the NWS. A wind chill advisory could be in the works starting Friday evening.

I also have seen more conservatism in some forecasts today than I expected. However I kept my forecast to a reasonable number so I don't think I will bust (unless I bust low if this thing cranks up at the last minute).

I guess I would just suggest not getting caught up in the snow totals. When this is done, I think the bitter cold plus wind/blowing and drifting will be the bigger story. Looks for the conditions to be miserable through entire weekend.

A warning to drivers who normally garage their car overnight. Since the snow will be falling during the workday tomorrow, you will need your scraper/brush. Make sure to check you still have it in the car and didn't put it away over the summer. Otherwise you might need to borrow one when you leave work tomorrow.

Updated: Final Call

Wednesday AM Update: No changes necessary thus morning so I will keep this as the headline. Look for a noon update or if there is a significant change to the forecast.



I thought I might need to wait until later to issue my final call for the system. I like the relatively similar and consistent model runs. Also I like the recent history where the models seems to be in agreement by this time. The high resolution model above is the final puzzle piece which will allow me to make my final call.

Four to six inches for Howard County by Friday morning. Another inch or so possible on Friday. Winds will shift to the northwest starting Thursday afternoon gusting 25 to 30 MPH overnight and remaining 12 to 15 MPH on Friday and then 10 to 12 MPH for the weekend.

Temperatures will be in the teens and falling through Friday with single digit lows overnight. Saturday will see little rebound with a high barely hitting 10 and then below zero for Saturday night. Sunday will see a slight rebound to the middle to upper teens.

Wind chills will remain below zero through the weekend and into Monday morning. Precautions should be taken for anyone venturing out from Thursday early morning and beyond.

The timing of the system for Thursday will have snow beginning around 3 to 5 AM with the heaviest snow from sunrise to early afternoon. It is with great confidence that I can say all Howard County schools will be closed Thursday and Friday due to this clipper system and the bitter cold that follows.

By the way, whatever falls will be around a while, I don't see any warm up in our future.

-----------------

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Some Quick Thoughts...

I am heading out for a few hours for a meeting but have a few thoughts I would like to share before a late evening write up...

The forecast looks pretty solid and my call of 3-5 inches will likely need to be raised but I will do that in the next forecast. I am waiting on a high resolution short term model to complete which will provide some additional detail.

I am now rather confident on a snow day for Friday for area schools. I am unsure what the thinking will be on Thursday morning since the snow won't have really started much by the time school starts. However the heaviest snow is forecast to right at that time thru the afternoon before tapering off (and not ending) and then comes the increase in winds. This snow will be lights and fluffy and will easily drift.

The weekend looks to be colder than the last and expect a Saturday night low below zero. Snow will continue into the weekend in a light amount.

Another clipper system is already showing up for early next week. I have not given it much of a look since I was focused on this system but others have already said it needs watching.

I will toot my own horn a bit with two forecasts I made. One on December 27th which talked about this storm dropping 4 to 6 inches. Another I made on November 1 where I stated in the Winter Outlook that January would be very cold and we would see a few clippers with the potential for one or two to over perform. I am liking my long range call for a cold January into February.

More later including my final call for the system... (That could be very late/just after midnight.)

Winter Storm Watch Issued

ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CNTL IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TO THE AREA.

236 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS DUE TO SNOW AND DRIFTS.
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING: BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT & LINGERING THROUGH FRI MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THURSDAY MORNING & AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN BEFORE THE THUR
MORNING RUSH HOUR. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

Update Schedule...

It is a busy day at work and in real life so I won't have much time to do an update until late evening. However I think my early call of 3 to 5 inches across much of the northern half of Indiana will be a good one and is probably good for most of the state.

My early call for area county schools will be delay Thursday before being a late cancellation of the entire day. Friday will be a delay. (Reminder these are just my guess and are not the result of anything more.)

>>>>>SNOW<<<<<

You can see we have a nice set of upper level lows from 500mb to 850mb. The are traveling right over Indiana almost stacked on top of each other. This is the NAM at 1 PM Thursday.





It looks like a nice wide coating of 3 to 5 inches (easy) for many by end Friday. Our best snow will be from Thursday morning into Thursday evening.

The GFS is more south with the moisture but for for us there is no measurable difference.