SLEET

Sleet has been reported heavy at times across Howard County.  Here is the QPF for this upcoming storm.  This is going to make a lot of snow, sleet, and ice. 

Wintry Mix Coming

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EWD ACROSS E CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. ACROSS NORTH CNTRL IND...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR AFTER 22Z.

A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL IL CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EWD...WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
IS DEVELOPING FARTHER WSW INTO E CNTRL MO. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
285-295 K LAYER ATOP A BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
19Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL...AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAX
STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF AN 850-MB VORT CENTER.
CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO INCREASE
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINTAINED AND REGENERATE
UPSTREAM. WITH WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES AT THE
SFC BELOW FREEZING...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS EXPECTED.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO 3-4C IN THE 850-880-MB LAYER...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARM
NOSE BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD /AOB 3C/ TO ALLOW FOR SLEET...WITH
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N CNTRL IN. THE 15Z SREF RUN
INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
IN THIS REGION...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTS BANDED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

Winter Storm Warning

...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening 

to 7 PM EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a 

Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow...sleet and freezing 

rain...which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM 

EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in 

effect.

* Main impact: roads will likely become impassable due to 

heavy snow or icing...blowing snow will reduce visibility

...travelwill become very hazardous or potentially impossible. 

Ice accumulations may result in widespread...long duration 

power outages.

* Accumulations: snow accumulation in excess of 12 to 16 

inches is possible in northwest central Indiana. Ice 

accumulations in excess of one inch are possible along and 

near the Interstate 70 corridor.

* Timing: precipitation is expected to begin Monday 

evening and continue through Wednesday afternoon.

* Other impacts: wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph on Tuesday 

and Wednesday in combination with heavy ice accumulations 

will likely result in downed trees and power lines.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of 

snow...sleet...and ice are expected or occurring. Strong 

winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous 

or impossible.

Calm Before The Storm

All quiet this morning but that will change by this time tomorrow and by Wednesday I am sure everyone will be saying uncle.  Things continue to look like Kokomo will just miss the ice with this storm.  (I hope nobody is planning an Indy trip this week.)

Snow amounts look to be 10-12+ inches when this is all said and done.  I would not be surprise to see some amounts topping 15 inches. 

Here is a high resolution snow map just produced.

Tonight's Model Runs...

They have came in stronger with more snow including in the first wave.  There could be some significant changes to the forecast by tomorrow morning depending on what the Euro model does overnight.

Much less sleet and no ice with the solutions I have seen so far.

My call...

I wished this was an easy one but it isn't.  Here goes...

6-10 inches of snow
1-2 inches of sleet
some icing but nothing significant for us
High winds causing drifitng
much colder end of the week

I do reserve to update this forecast as often as necessary. 

One thing I will mention.  If you are in the market for a battery operated light, the Rayovac Sportsman Extreme is excellent.  They have these at Lowes and Meijer in town.  Probably other places too.

Nowcasting

This storm is all but impossible to forecast for our area.  As expected, the models did a little dance this morning shifting this northwest.  Not a lot but we have trended out of the record historical snows amounts.  Those looks to be for Chicago.  (Their all time record of 23" will probably fall.)

For Kokomo and Howard County, we are riding the line of mixed wintry precipitation.  Making a call as to which one wins out is not possible right now.  There is a lot of speculation and even the NWS is sending a mix message right now if you compare the forecast for Bunker Hill from the Northern Indiana Office and Kokomo forecast from Indianapolis. 

This will probably be a nowcast where we really won't know until it is almost here or happening.  I think if anyone makes a final call now, they are foolish.  I also think it is not a good idea to think this thing has trended northwest and will now be a miss for central Indiana.

Options range from modest snow accumulations (4-6 inches) with sleet on the order of a couple inches or more.  The snowiest solutions still come in the 14-16 inch range and no mixing issues.  Icing doesn't seem like a serious threat for here right now but some minor amounts of a quarter of an inch is possible.

A few extremely key points are this will be a system in two waves.  The first way will be Monday evening into Tuesday morning.  You might look around Tuesday morning and think we busted.  That will be a lull because by Tuesday evening, the heaviest amount of precipitation will be falling in one form or another. If snow, one to two inches per hour into Wednesday morning.  Sleet or ice would be equally as aggressive with their accumulations and impacts.  I would guess snow plows will park Tuesday evening when they see no hope of keeping up.

Winds will also be a significant factor.  Snow will be blowing and drifting into Thursday.  Colder temperatures will follow with lows near zero and highs in the teens for Thursday and Friday. If only small amounts of ice or sleet accumulates, the winds could cause power outages.

Here is the outage make for Duke Energy for Indiana - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp#outagemap

Please do prepare to be home bound through the end of the week.  Make sure you have medicine, non perishable food (and a non electric can opener) and water.  A bathtub of water might be handy for those with a well and no electricity.  You can use it to flush.  :) 

Batteries for a flash light and radio and keep your cell phones on charge.

I will update later this evening but I think this video I recorded of the Indianapolis NWS on The Weather Channel says it all.  (This was from this morning.)

And before anyone asks...

I predict Snow Days for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for ALL Howard County School.

Midday forecast coming...

By now you know the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central and Northern Indiana.  NWS has an excessive of 10 plus inches by Wednesday evening for our area.  The good news is the ice threat seems to be staying south for now.  It could be as close as southern Tipton County and turn into a full blown disaster by Indy metro. 

This morning will be the first model runs will the storm fully on shore and sampled.  Should there be any corrections in the storm track overall, it should happen with the 12z model runs.  Check back later for your full forecast.

Quick thoughts...

I don't have much to say that isn't in the earlier forecast around noon on Saturday.  Models continue to show unbelievable amounts of snow/sleet/ice in various combinations for our area.  This will likely be a historic storm and will be talked about for the rest of our lives.  Take some time on Sunday to make some preparations. 

More updates tomorrow as we continue to refine the forecast.  The show starts Monday PM and lasts into Wednesday, maybe longer. 

Please share this site with your friends.  I do care about forecasting for Kokomo and Howard County.  Should we really get hit, I will always pass along any important information I might have which can better serve the community. 

Unreal...

Not sure how I can describe or even understand the model runs today.  The things I have seen from almost every model and every run has been one historic storm scenario after another.

Here is a good example.  The first map is the 18Z NAM (North American Model).  It runs out to 84 hours.  Below it is the DGEX which is the cousin of the NAM and it take hours 84 to 192.  So imagine the two together as one map.  WOW is all one can say!  That is 2+ feet of snow for us when combined.  Just WOW!

Saturday Night Special

A quick clipper system could drop a half inch of snow over the area tonight.  Little accumulation but slick roads will likely result.

Forecast Update

An extremely exciting and difficult forecast to put together.  While it is to early to narrow down the finer details, there are some larger trends that can be agreed upon.

Next week should see one of the most significant winter weather systems the Ohio Valley has seen in quite some time.  I know we talk about storm potential here and generally lean on toward even a bit of hype.  (Yeah, I admit to a bit of snow hype.)  Many times we are disappointed as the forecast models shift the storm in a different direction (or sometimes a completely different solution) or they cut the amount of QPF (precipitation) at the last minute.  Sometimes we just get unlucky and a dry slot or another problem kills Kokomo's snow totals.

While I cannot predict if bad luck will strike with this storm, I so think I can safety forecast we will not be missed and we will not get shorted with moisture.  (As I am typing this, the GGEM (Canadian Model) came us surpressed killing off the storm.  Ugh.)

Virtually all models have indicated strong transport is in place to pull moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico.  The GFS and Euro models show 1.25 to 1.5 inches of liquid for Kokomo.  While the NAM doesn't run more than 84 hours out, it also shows similar amounts are likely if one were to extrapolate what happens beyond the end of the run.

The models (NAM/Euro/GFS) also agree this will be widespread and it seems highly improbable that Kokomo or Indiana for that matter will be missed.  The entire Ohio Valley and Great Lake region will be effected by this system.

We can also see a tight baroclinic zone with this system.  This is where a tight temperature gradient exists and the surface pressure remain stable.  This is where the some of the heaviest snow will fall (and rapidly).  You can see the baroclinic zone on both the GFS and NAM. 

The significant difference and real problem with the forecast is the thermal profiles in the atmosphere.  Snow is produced when the column of air is below freezing all of the way down.  Even a tiny amount of surface warmth above freezing still results in snow.

Looking at the NAM (which matches the Euro), it shows a warm level producing sleet. 

The GFS on the other hand is below freezing at all levels and produces snow.

Yes, the 12z GFS which just ran this Saturday morning snows 23.3" of snow.  (I promise to pray for an early spring if this verifies.)  It ends up looking like this!  

At this point it is difficult to decided which solution to favor.  Both would be historic storms and I didn't even bring up the wind which will either produce blizzard like conditions or produce devastating consequences should the sleet or ice solution verify.  Very cold temps follow this system and days without electricity is likely should we not get snow.

I do think you will want to have your generator and snow blower both ready to go.  One will be needed. 

One thing we have on our side is the highest matching analog from a previous storm is the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007.  It was a prolific widespread snow producer for Howard County resulting in 16 to 18 inches of snow.  The sleet/ice problem was as close as 30 miles south but ended up not verifying here.  It looks remarkably similar to the GFS forecast. 

I will of course stay on top of everything as the weekend progresses and we get closer to the snow event.

Update: The Euro 12z run just came in and Kokomo gets 1.75"  of precipitation.  ALL SNOW!  Now the GFS and Euro are showing snow.

Good Morning!

This should wet your appetite.

Morning Forecast

I will piece together a forecast tomorrow morning.  It is looking rather positive today.  Lots of meteorologists are also on board.  This will be a wild one to forecast for sure.

Hopeful...

Before we talk about next week, lets take brief moment to talk about the Friday evening and overnight wintry mix.  There will not be much accumulation or precipitation with the system but since freezing drizzle is possible along with the snow, it could make for a mess on the roads.  Snow accumulations will remain under an inch and less than a tenth of an inch of ice.  The weekend should be uneventful after this moves out.

Next week is trending into what might be a memorable snow or even ice storm across the area.  It will still be another day or even until Sunday morning before we can really hone in on the exact path and precipitation type.  The precipitation amounts look solid and a 6+ inch snowstorm.  The only concern at this point is the possibility of a significant ice storm across central or southern Indiana. 

The snow map below ends before the storm makes it to Indiana.  However the precipitation path is a direct hit for our area.  Deep snow would be the result from this run.  Much more to come...

The DGEX is sweet

No Forecast Yet

Looks like the clipper has moved through and done its damage.  The system for next week is still a question mark so I am going to wait another day before issuing a forecast. 

Now for some snow...

It looks like the clipper on Thursday afternoon and evening will produce about an inch of snowfall for us.  It should freshen up the snow we still have nicely. 

Next week could be the one we have been waiting for all winter long.  Either that or a really close heartbreak with us receiving cold rain instead.  Stay tuned.

Quiet Week and Then...

I am cautiously optimistic that we will see good snow event next week.  Many things point to our largest accumulating snow of the season.  (It still won't be the big one though.)  If it still is around in a couple of days, I will do an update.  Until then, enjoy the cold but uneventful weather. 

(Wasn't yesterday a nice surprise?) 

You know it's bad when...

Nobody on the weather forum wants to start a storm thread.  Meteorologists don't want to be blamed when the storm threat disappears or becomes an east coast monster.  Enthusiasts don't want to be tagged as bad luck. 

Yes, we are a superstitious bunch.  

The good news (at least for now) is there is more potential coming down the pipe.  Maybe one can produce for our area and finally satisfy our desire for a good snow storm.

Winter 2010-2011 - Big Whoop!

It looks like another miss for next week.  So what else is new...

We have been missed time and time again this winter.  It is becoming rather frustrating with the models being unable to show solutions to system until the last 36 to 48 hours before the show (snow) begins.  It seem most systems end up in a of bomb either south or on the east coast. 

Some are near misses.  Lafayette has 30.3" for the season while we 17.05".  This past week, Indianapolis more than doubled our snow total for the last system. 

About the only positive is the next weeks looks to remain cold.  I don't see any snow pack melt and the dustings we will receive should keep things fresh.

Snow Ends & Cold Begins

The snow has ended for most of the area.  I recorded 1.75 inches at my home.  That has us at 17.05" for the season.  That is down considerably from Lafayette which has 30.3" recorded this season.

Cold arctic air is now infiltrating Indiana.  Tonight's low will be right about zero.  Single digit highs for Friday and another chilly Friday night.  Winds will be gusty near 25 overnight causing dangerous wind chills.  I am predicting a two hour delay for the four county schools on Friday morning,

Saturday returns to the 20's.  Some light snow also possible.

Another snow making system is on tap for the first half of next week.  No predictions now but it should have some measurable accumulations.  

No Forecast Changes

Just one to two inches tomorrow.  Better amounts south and east.

Updated: 1 to 2 inches...

No changes with the forecast for Kokomo.  One to two inches seems about right for now.

Update: Euro model looks OK for moisture.  

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday.  Their thinking and mine are one to two inches for the Kokomo area.  This system will be better as you go south and between Seymour to Greenwood running east/west will be the sweet part of the state. 

Most television forecasts will be focusing on Indy metro and south with their totals.  I doubt there will be any delay or cancellation of school around the county.  Possibly Friday morning with the wind howling all evening.

NAM: "No Snow For You"

In just 24 hours we went from 6 to 8 inches to nothing.  You cannot do any worse than that. 

Not Impressed...

Sorry but I am not really impressed with the Thursday storm.  While I casually looked over things yesterday and wanted to see the good in the storm system, the realities are this system is going to be better to the south and there won't be much moisture with this system for the northern edge. 

Yes there is a Winter Storm Watch for our area.  Yes, they are saying 4 to 6 inches.  Yes, some TV stations talking 3-4 inches.  I see all kinds of ambitious calls being made.

Realistically look for 2 inches, maybe 3 for Kokomo & Howard County.  We have been burned to many times riding the edge and this time should be no different.

I will do a later update once the even models deliver their verdict.  Maybe there will be some magic but unlikely.  

Quick Forecast...

I was hoping to do a more detailed forecast tonight but honestly I am very tried after my recent camping trip.  I will talk more about soon but I know you are looking for a forecast.  It is pretty simple, we dodged what looked to be trouble today with freezing rain and snow.  Some rain overnight and and back to rain/snow on Tuesday.

There will not be any significant accumulations (less than an inch for snow) but it could be rather messy out on the roads.  Slow down and be careful.

The significant snow will be on Thursday.  Like last week, we will have a widespread system giving many people accumulating snow.  There will not be any crazy amounts but 3 to 6 inches with 8 inch lollipops seem very likely looking at all the models.  I do need to spend some more time to tweak this forecast which will have the storm here soon.

Right after the snow is the blast of arctic air we kept thinking was coming.  Below zero temps overnight and single digit highs during the day.

While I hate to make snow day calls several days early but this looks like a short week for students and faculty.  School could very well very canceled on Thursday and Friday.

Keep coming back for additional updates.  We will have them soon, I promise.

wintry mix

I am out camping this weekend and have only had smart phone access to review the forecast for tomorrow. Looks like warm air will win out and give a snow rain and frozen mix. Things could be really slick by Monday afternoon. Not expecting power outages but some sporadic problems would not surprise.

I will be back later tomorrow and will get back on track forecasting. More storms are in our future.

Snow and Rain/Snow

Snow for the weekend but as I said yesterday, nothing impressive.  An inch or so.  Things will freshen up and roads will be slick.  You know that means, accidents and slide offs.  Please take it easy out there. I really don't like hearing about people having accidents no matter how minor.  Sunday will be precipitation free.  Single digit lows for Saturday and Sunday night.

The next system comes along on Monday.  Now this system is still a bit of a question mark on its impacts.  It did initially seem this would be another widespread snow maker for the Ohio Valley.  Now it seems there will be mixing issues.  Nothing is set in stone and given how the models seem to not really get a handle on things until the last minute, it should be no surprise.

The colder temps we have talked are finally going to arrive.  At or near zero overnight temps are on tap for next week.  That should be fun.  :)

More later...

More Snow Coming...

I have been a bit busy with work and other stuff but have been glancing at the upcoming systems.  My general thought is this weekend's first wave won't mean much but will drop an inch or so over the area.  Just enough to make things rather messy on the roads but it will freshen up the previous snow.

What comes after is the big question and I will answer that tomorrow...

Winter Weather Advisory now in effect until 7 PM EST this evening

Blowing and drifting snow will continue today as west northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph continue. Open rural areas and County roads will have more significant drifting.

Late Prediciton for Area Schools

I have been a bit busy but feel that all area county schools will have a two hour delays.  Snow, wind, cold temps you know.  :) 

Winter Weather Advisory Extended to 9 AM Wednesday

LIGHT SNOW WITH BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT.

WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS.

Not a bad forecast...

My call of 4-6" by Wednesday morning should verify on the low end.  I also did OK with the area schools.  It really was about the timing of the snow.  When it came a bit late, it was inevitable that we went on time. 

More later on what else to expect.  (Did I mention there probably be more snow this weekend?)

My School Snowday Call

The snow is going to start a bit later since there is some dry air to overcome.  Snow really won't start closer to 4 to 5 AM.  I am going to make a dual call..

For Howard County area schools:  If there is a delay, expect it to morph into a cancellation.  If they do go on time, expect an early dismissal.  No sports or after school activities either way.

While I don't normally call Kokomo-Center, I predict on time with an early dismissal.

If you want to have some fun, try the online Snow Day Predictor. http://david.sukhin.com/Weather/Snowday/Auto-Snowday.htm

Tuesday Snow

4-6" of snow by Wednesday Morning!

Winds from the east, weather not fit for man nor beast.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT  FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW. FALLING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY EVENING.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN
300 AM AND 600 AM TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FALL FROM ABOUT SUNRISE ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING RUSH HOURS.

Wake Up To Headlines

I suspect by the time you wake up in the morning, the NWS should have hoisted up a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow.  I will stick with my call of 3-5 inches for the area.  The NAM is rather juicy and if it verified, we would be over 6 inches.

Tuesday will be a mess.  My early guess for area schools would be a delay then cancel for Tuesday and then a delay for Wednesday.

Snow 3-5" For Tuesday

I will stick with 3-5 inches for the time being.  Some dry air during the early stages could keep us from reaching full potential.  Overall look for snow to begin in earnest sometime around midnight on Monday and be cranking on Tuesday by the time everyone gets up for work or school.

It will taper off Tuesday evening with leaving 3-5" or possible more in its wake.  Another inch or two could continue from lake effect before all is said and done by Wednesday evening. 

Finally a decent snow...

Tough Colts loss tonight.  The loss has dampened my enthusiasm to write about what should be our best snow of the season.  Anyway, on to the upcoming snow...

This system has many positives to talk about.  I would like to see the 00z Euro later tonight but we look to be securely in the path of a bowling ball type of system.  We will not be on the edge of a tight cut off.  This system will deliver a wide swath of snow covering much of Indiana.

We will start cold and remain cold.  No chance of any mixing or icing issues anywhere nearby.  It will be several states south.

Great ratios will take a modest amount of moisture and turn it into a lot of white fluffy snow.  It should be easy to shovel. 

Timing is probably the only real problem with this snow system.   The snow will start Monday evening and the bulk of the accumulations will happen Tuesday.  It will linger into Wednesday.  Decisions to delay or cancel school will be difficult for school administrators. 

Details should be much clearer tomorrow but widespread 3-5 inches across the area seems likely. 

Forecast Coming Later

Look for a reversal with tonight's forecast.  Find out when and how much snow to expect early next week.  The big question: Will is result in a snow day?

But most importantly...

GO COLTS!

Snow...

Still not convinced but there have been a few good trends with the snow for next week.  I guess more model watching this weekend.

Another system looks likely for next weekend.  Way to early to speculate the details but most major models have the features there in one form or another.

The weekend is almost here...

Wasn't today's snow a nice surprise? I enjoyed myself while our at lunch. I hope you did too. Look for a similar but longer duration snow for tomorrow. Not much accumulations but enough to make everything slick. Slow down; be safe; watch out for others.

The snow for early next week is still a tease. It wants to be something for our area but it just isn't getting the job done. Don't get me wrong, there will be some snowfall but not enough to probably get a snow day. Just two to three inches strung over a 24 to 36 hour time period.

If things do improve, then a 4 to 6 inch snowfall would probably be the top end. The January 1978 analog has disappeared from the 8 to 14 day map and is dropping down on the 6 to 10 day map of matches.

However if you want to continue to believe, Bill at IndyWX thinks that things are still looking very good for a significant snowfall. You can read his latest entry here.

I will keep you updated over the weekend.   Stay tuned...

The 6-10 day analog and outlook...

The 6-10 day analog takes a look at the upper air patten and find previous patterns from 1950 to 1999 which match and ranks them.  The January 1978 blizzard has been making its way up the chart on both the 8-14 and 6-10 day analogs.  That would seem to be a good thing for snow lovers.

However I decided to do a little bit more checking on all of the dates on the 6-10 day analog.  While the January 1978 date has a blizzard, not everything comes up snowy.  The snows were all over the road from nuisance snows to moderate and of course the blizzard.

What was a common theme were cold temperatures.  Brutal cold could be found every time.  So I guess the idea of a displaced polar vortex moving over the US looks like a solid idea.  The good news is the very coldest should miss our area.

The unfortunate news is the snow threat is also not forecast to threat for our area.

The hazards map also bears out these facts.

With these facts in mind and with what I keep seeing as model trends, I love the idea of a huge snow for Kokomo and vicinity for early next week but cannot support it.  Trust me when I say I hope I am wrong and we get pounded.  :-)

Snow

Look for a dusting of snow overnight into Friday morning.  I am not sure we will even see that given the very limited moisture and the clipper diving south. 

The next week storm for Monday to Tuesday is suppressed to our south.  While some GFS runs do show a blockbuster storm for us, it isn't consistent and the Euro which usually is right more often and sorts out storm systems usually before all others is not favorable for our area.

There still is time for things to change and the Christmas blizzard for the east coast wasn't forecast well until 48 hours before the start of the event.  However I need to see some shift soon to keep hope alive.  

January 1978 Blizzard

It keeps showing up on the analogs. First the 8-14 day and now the 6-10 day.

In case you forgot what that looks like, here are photos I took during/after the blizzard of January 1978.  These are downtown Frankfort.

January's Forecast: Just WOW!

Just a quiet Saturday evening at home peeking over the models and all I can say is WOW.

First, a meteorologist I know believes that the December we had matched the the December of 1981.  Even much of 1981 matched 2010.  January 1982 produced 43 inches of snow in Kokomo.

Looks like the Climate Prediction Center wants it to be cold.  Here is the 6-10 and the 8-14 day outlooks.

The daily analog for 8-14 days shows a match for January 29, 1978.  Anyone remember some blizzard just about that time in 1978?  Anyone?

Make of it what you will. All I know is January weather looks to be rather interesting.

2010 Weather Wrap Up

The record books are closed for 2010. There were a few notable weather events for Kokomo, Howard & surrounding counties. Let's recap a few...

Snow

We missed out on all the big snows in 2010. Last winter was a blockbuster for places like Iowa and the middle Atlantic States and New England; don't even get me started. Those places saw back to back to back record snows and as recently as Christmas 2101, have a big snow.

We say a 5" and a 5.5" snow in January and February respectively. December was a snowy month with 11.8" locally but no snow over 3". (There were six instances where we recorded an inch of snow in December.

Most notable was no snow in March. Usually there is some snow but not even a trace.  November just recorded a trace on the very last day. 

Severe Weather

Amazingly, there was only one tornado in the entire US in February.  It was a weak EF-0 which was briefly on the ground in California of all places.  It caused no damage.

The city of Yazoo, Mississippi had the worst luck for tornadoes in 2010.  They were hit on April 24, November 29, and rang in 2011 with another tornado warning.

Locally we had quiet months in March and April.  The few severe weather threats never materialized.  That set us up for a bust of epic proportions on Friday May 7th.  It started on Wednesday of that week when we had a slight risk for severe weather.  Surprisingly a couple of storm chase tour vans were just a few miles from my home.  Nothing materialized but I did highlight what potentially could be a huge day for Friday.

There was talk about Indiana being under a high risk for severe weather but we never made it past moderate risk.  Chasers from all over the Midwest ad Ohio Valley converged on Northern Indiana.  Reed Timmer and Discovery Storm Chasers even came for the potential outbreak.

I had plans to bail on work that day but decided I could work in the morning and still be fine.  I ended staying all day waiting for that first sign of storm initiation. 

In the end, everyone busted pretty hard on the forecast.  There were a few late tornadoes and some hail and wind damage in a small corridor from Ft Wayne east into Ohio but nothing like was everyone thought. 

There were two or three more severe weather forecasts for Kokomo in May and those also busted.  At least they only had weak potential so nobody was surprised when nothing materialized.

Another moderate risk for Indiana was on Saturday June 5th.  For me personally, I was required to be at a wedding in Bloomington that day.  It made nowcasting difficult. The good news is things were slow to develop and the tornado watch was not issued until 10:13 PM.  I was on my way back home then. 

I chatted on the phone with another local storm spotter and when I finally arrived at home just around midnight, we both concluded the storms were weakening as they approached the IN/IL border and we both called it a night.  That was a bad call since storms came back to life just after 1 AM.

Initially there was some storm damage to NOAA weather alert transmitter in Monticello.  It remained functional but on very low power and the severe weather alert tones were not received by my radio in Kokomo.  I slept right through tornadoes which hit Carrol, Cass, & Miami Counties.  Some property damage but no life was lost and there were no injuries reported.  In the end however the storm reports from IL, IN, and OH tallied up to make the day worthy of a high risk. 

Friday June 18th was another night of severe weather frustration.  Another slight risk day for Indiana and surrounding states.  A massive squall line was moving quickly into the area on what looked like a beautiful day.  There was first problem, it looked like a beautiful day so many people were not thinking about severe weather.

The system moving our way had already caused problems in Illinois and even did damage to the Sears Tower in Chicago.  For some unknown reason, the NWS issued a warning for the system at least 45 minutes ahead of the storm's arrival.  While that might seem that the advanced warning time was a good idea, it seemed to be out of context to the current beautiful weather everyone was experiencing.

With that said, local Skywarn/NWS trained storm spotters went into action.  One long time and well respected spotter went to an outdoor event at Kokomo High School.  It was the Relay for Life.  The advanced warnings were not heeded and in fact were dismissed by organizers.

Even when local reports of 45-50 MPH winds were reported on the western side of Howard County, no action was taken.  In the end, some damage to tents were reported.  Later I believe I heard someone might had had a minor injury trying to hold down a canopy. 

I cannot stress the importance of severe weather safety and organizers of (outdoor) events need to take it seriously.  I too often see action taken too late at many sporting events.

We finally got a high risk for Indiana on Tuesday October 26.  It was for a wind driven event with a deep low pressure moving west of the state into Canada.  While the severe weather ingredients, sometimes one thing can make a storm system produce.  We ended up with a tornado that day in Howard County.  It was very brief and just an EF-0.  It did some damage to homes but no injuries were reported.  I did a damage survey for EMA and was rather impressed with the straight line winds but not so much the tornado.

Besides some more events which never produced, that was about it.  A pretty busy season overall. 

Heat & Drought

It was a warm spring and summer.  We had 17 days above 90 degrees in May-August.  There was just one day below zero all year and that came in December. December overall was rather cold. 

We were also dry like much of the state but in the end we were not as bad as many places since we received a lot of rain in June and were not completely shut out of precipitation in July like so many. 

In end, we still maintained above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. 

Weather & Social Media

The landscape changed over the past year with more blogs, Facebook pages, and Twitter accounts dedicated to weather.  The avenue for weather enthusiasts and professionals to get their forecasts and thoughts out has never been easier.  In many ways that has been good but as always, there are a few forecasters who turn it into a contest to see who has the most followers or fans.

Kokomo-Weather doesn't do that and has worked to earn every blog reader, Twitter follower, and Facebook fan we have.  In the near future, I will go detail this every changing landscape and help you get more out of your forecast. 

Thank You

For those of you who follow Kokomo-Weather, I say thank you.  We are still your best source for weather in Kokomo and Howard County.