Wintry Mix Coming

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EWD ACROSS E CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. ACROSS NORTH CNTRL IND...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR AFTER 22Z.

A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL IL CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EWD...WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
IS DEVELOPING FARTHER WSW INTO E CNTRL MO. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
285-295 K LAYER ATOP A BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
19Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL...AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAX
STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF AN 850-MB VORT CENTER.
CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO INCREASE
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINTAINED AND REGENERATE
UPSTREAM. WITH WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES AT THE
SFC BELOW FREEZING...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS EXPECTED.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO 3-4C IN THE 850-880-MB LAYER...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARM
NOSE BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD /AOB 3C/ TO ALLOW FOR SLEET...WITH
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N CNTRL IN. THE 15Z SREF RUN
INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
IN THIS REGION...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTS BANDED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS.