The headline should serve as your heads up. Wednesday afternoon and evening seem favorable for a an outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes. This severe weather season has been rather active and violent and it shows no signs of letting up.
There already is a moderate risk out and we are very near the currently outlined area. I do think a shift north and east is warranted and will likely come on the new Day 1 Outlook maps. I put my own line on the map.
The SERF shows favorable tornado ingredients as well for tomorrow. These high numbers (30+) have been associated with recent violent outbreaks so this model currently has a good track record for forecasting. These maps are for 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.
I cannot stress enough how you need a plan to protect yourself and your family. Warning times have been good with 15 to 20 minute lead times but that is not enough time if you do not get the warning or fail to have a plan. You need to allow extra time trying to exit ball parks. This year has seen 481 tornado related deaths. Mother Nature means business!
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