Ice, Ice Baby...

Indianapolis has indicated the frozen temperatures have arrives several hours sooner than forecast. Slight glazing on grass and cars reported from Lafayette at 8:30.

[NWS] Winter Storm Warning

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Cold Front Arriving...

The cold front is moving into the area bring steep temperature drops. Lafayette was at 60 around 7 AM and is now at 43. It will be interesting to see if any changes are made to the watch by the NWS. Much of central IL is reporting mid thirties and still falling.

No Forecast Changes...

The forecast seems to remain the same. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, & snow is all in the forecast over the next 36-48 hours. Freezing rain looks to be the biggest concern on the models but the NWS thinks 1/4 inch will be the maximum amount. I think tomorrow morning will be a real mess for travel. No guess on a snow delay or snow day for area schools. I would anticipate 2-3 inches by end of the day on Wednesday.

Winter Storm Watch

Not really any changes to the forecasts currently. The system might be a tad slower than the models have suggested. Hopefully some additional information by lunch but this may be more of a nowcast type of event.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Late Evening Update

There hasn't been much change from any of the NWS forecast offices around the region since the middle of the afternoon. The last few runs of the forecast models have most of the snow band to our west and recently the frozen precipitation looks to be mainly south.

While south, it is just a couple of counties. The band is from Terre Haute to Carmel to Munice. We seen a modest amount of rain with a little over an inch. Modest is relative to this system. A small amount if sleet or ice is also likely but it doesn't look to be significant or devastating for us right now.

There is still a lit of uncertianty with the system and small changes of just a few miles could have significant changes in the forecast. This storm system will be more nowcast than forecast. The NWS office in Chicago said it this way...

ANYONE NOT FREQUENTLY MONITORING LATER FORECASTS MAY BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

I am attaching the precipitation map for the next 60 hours and the frozen rain and sleet maps too.

Late Afternoon Update

Here is one messy update. Let's begin with the HPC winter composite. The Day 2 Map begins at 7 PM Monday evening and shows us with a 10% chance for 4 or more inches of snow as well as 1/4 inch of ice being a 40% chance.

Most of the NWS forecast offices in the region have differing ideas on a storm system which still has the models stymied. It also has the forecasters mentioning a lot of uncertainty with their forecasts. Some are being aggressive and issuing winter watches and advisories and some are remaining conservative. At this point I don't fault either camp and can see the reasoning for their decisions.

Here is a run down what local NWS offices have issued and are thinking.

Indianapolis has issued a Flood Watch for all counties in their coverage area.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT FROM NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CAUSE RISES IN AREA RIVERS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OTHER AREAS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREETS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

The Northern Indiana NWS Office has went and issued a Winter Storm Watch for many counties in their coverage area including Miami and Grant. Cass is NOT included however.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN FFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHIFTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY ICING EXISTS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW AMOUNTS OF ICING TO BE MAXIMIZED AT OR ABOVE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAUSEON OHIO TO FORT WAYNE TO PERU INDIANA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY ACCUMULATED AN INCH OR TWO INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY TO TRAVEL.

They also have a Flood Watch in effect for almost all of their coverage are.

Here are some key comments directly from the Indianapolis NWS discussion issued at 4 PM.

THINGS GET TRICKY ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTEDNED FREEZING RAIN EVENT ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM MUNCIE...ANDERSON TO CARMEL.

WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

As you can see, they are being conservative with issuing a watch or advisory. All I can say is to pay attention as this system could bring a little bit of everything and decided at the last second where.

Storm Update

Here are the HPC Composites for this morning. The first one is valid from 7 AM Monday and the second kicks in at 7 AM Tuesday. You can see snow seems possible and ice seems very real too. Tuesday looks even more ominous with snow and ice. Ice has been mentioned by the NWS (Indianapolis) in their HWO.




The latest NAM model run shows significant frozen precipitation for our area. One inch or more is forecast. Models have been showing this solution more and more often with the heavier snow to the south east.

Prepare For The Worst...

The next system looks impossible to forecast with any certainty. The models are flip-flopping on each run with the exact location of the freeze line. Here is what I can say at this point...

Someone is going to get hammered with snow. There is a very narrow band (maybe 50-75 miles) that will come up from the southern plains states through Eastern Iowa, Illinois, or Western Indiana. Amount would be 8 to 12 inches or more.

Someone is going to get flooded with rain. There is wide precipitation area which has generally put 2 to 4 inches over several states including ours. If we don't get the snow mentioned above, rain is very possible unless...

Someone could get a major ice storm with 1/2 inch to 1 inch or more. That would be devastating to trees and power lines. Again, it is really impossible to predict at this point since everything is so marginal on temperatures.

What should be hope for? I say snow. Why you ask? Snow won't take down trees or power lines. Snow won't bring an immediate flood situation. It would likely be a more gradual flood as it melts.

I will try to deliver at least a couple of posts on this system tomorrow and will also kick off severe weather awareness week with a recap of the NWS conference I attended today. That was a great time.

Angela Buchman Loves Kokomo-Weather.com