Mid Week Mayhem...

The big snow being talked about will be a miss for our area but the system will be a big influence for us in other ways. The low pressure will track from the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon to northwest Indiana by 7 AM on Wednesday.

Rapid deepening of the low will cause the winds to ramp up on Tuesday with afternoon winds near 20 MPH. By 7 PM, the winds will remain strong bringing up warm temperatures ans some thunder will be possible. Rain will be prevalent with amounts from 1/2" to 3/4" before a change over to a bit of back end snow of about an inch.

The winds will be strong through Wednesday with gusts near 40 MPH before tapering off on Thursday. There will be a possible freeze issue Wednesday night when temperatures finally drop below freezing. Thursday could offer school delays.

Overall I don't expect any ice accumulation or associated problems (down trees or power lines) from this storm.

If you are unlucky enough to be traveling into Wisconsin or Iowa or the western half of Michigan this week, you will probably run into big snow storm which will likely dominate news headlines.

If something changes, I will keep everyone informed.

We're done...

I was going to do a more detailed and technical update showing what I had hoped was the small amount of remaining potential for the mid week system. However after the latest model reviews, it would just be an effort in futility and losing some sleep. Yes, I am bitter and there is no hiding it. Too often the models show potential and then take it away.

In general, the warm air is coming in and making a wreck of everything. Right now the temperatures at 850mb (5000 ft.) range from -10 t0 -13 Celsius. By Monday, they have risen to about -5 Celsius and continue the climb. When the storm is going, we are several degrees above freezing at 5000 ft.

Surface temperatures which have been cold also rise to middle 30's. Combining the two results in a cold and miserable rain. Of course after most of the system has passed, the surface and 850mb temperatures fall possibly producing a couple of inches at best on the back end. Otherwise the storm will be a bust for our area.

If we do get a big snow producer from this storm, then the models will need to be wrong and the storm's low pressure would need to dig deeper south before ejecting northeast. That will (need to) happen on Tuesday. I will follow the low track to see how it verifies.

Monday Morning Alert: While the focus has been on bigger mid week storm, there is a smaller system moving through late Sunday evening into Monday. It should being us a nominal amount of snow of an inch or less. Like was thought last week, the snow will fall early morning and through the rush hour. Expect possible hazardous and wild driving conditions on Monday morning with people relearning how to drive on snow covered roads. School delays are possible.

Forecast Coming Later...

I will begin to detail the upcoming possible snows with a forecast later tonight. Lots to sort out...

Houston, we have a problem...

Winter Storm Warning in the Houston metro area. They are looking for 2-4 inches which will make for impossible driving conditions. (Here we would just day heh and continue on.)

Also some great lake effect snow in Michigan where more than nine inches has already fallen.

It is good to know someone is getting snow. I am hopeful that we will have some snow with the next system on Sunday evening into Monday.

The system which follows for Tuesday night into Wednesday has a lot more questions than answers at this point. Time will tell...

Next Week...

Next week could bring good potential for snow. Given the history of the forecast models, I will hold off on predicting any forecast details but will mention that the first storm on Monday should give us our first flakes of the season while the middle of the week has potential to bring someone a great snow; hopefully us!

Enjoy the cold weekend and check for updates about next week.

The Surface Low (& Snow Reports)

It is almost painful how perfect this low is tracking. Some reports of snow in Montgomery County. Still at 38/39 here...

Uncle...

I surrender to the storm system and am not expecting anything but a few mixed in flakes. It is going to remain just warm enough as the precipitation slides through that we will received a cold rain. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1/3" for the system.

There will be colder temperatures in store for the end of the week through the weekend but the deep cold advertised on the long range models for next week has disappeared. If that happens. then the upcoming storms riding the fence whether if they are going to bring rain or snow.

There is one positive thing about this system is the track of the low is about perfect for good snows for our area. If later systems can keep this track when there is ample cold air, then we should get some decent snows!

Am I alone here???

I think I might be the only person still thinking we will receive any snow. Most believe the precipitation will move out before the cold arrives. I will continue to believe in my forecast while I sleep but I might waffle tomorrow and change my mind.

The one thing I can guarantee is colder and wetter weather.

Not much to update...

The models have seemed to bring a nice axis of QPF over us tomorrow night into Thursday AM. The question is when does the cold air arrive and the change over to snow occur. I am still thinking sometime around the late news the change over will be occurring with it picking up steam a few hours later. By sunrise, it will be all but done and I think the inch will have fallen. If we can get a nice deformation band over the top of us, two to three inches might just surprise us come Thursday morning even though there is more wishcasting in that than any science. *grin*

Looking Back at November & Ahead to Thursday's Snow

Let's look back at November first. The Indianapolis NWS did a nice write up but even the most casual weather observer knows that November was warm and dry. The many days with an above normal temperature allowed people complete outdoor chores and to continue to enjoy outdoor activities.

We averaged about three to four degrees above normal. The high of 73 came early on 11/8 and we dropped to 28 on 11/12. (Last year we dropped to 14 on 11/22.)

The warm weather was accompanied by sunshine much of the time. Only about half as much rain as normal fell for November. While there were some observation of snow flakes mixed in with the rain over the Thanksgiving holiday, I am declaring November to be snow free. I don't consider anything less than a trace amount to even count.

December does look to start out cooler with temperatures falling to seasonal later this week and it looks like lows will dip into the teen by the middle of the month. Our first snow this week will be light and stay around an inch. I do feel rather confident that there will be a two hour delay for the county schools in the area. The snow will fall mainly after 2 AM lasting up until the normal start of school. The previous rain will freeze on some surfaces too including bridges and sidewalks. I think that combination and with this being the first hazardous conditions of the season, administrators will error on the side of caution and delay school. (If this were later into the season and we had a few snows under our belt, I might not be as confident.)