Still Holding With My Call...

I know it goes against the group think but I am still going to hold with call of 2-4" right now. The models were not as bullish today and that makes me a tad bit nervous with the much higher calls made by others.

We are really at the front end of the storm. There are no winter storm watches to our west. It only makes sense that the better snow might start just a bit more east leaving us without the heavier snow totals.

I also find it interesting the timing of the snow has moved up. A couple of days ago I was pretty sure there would be no chance for schools declaring a snow day. Now the snow is coming a bit quicker preceded by a small amount of freezing rain. The freezing rain should fall from a little after midnight through the start of school and then a change over to all snow. Accumulations now appear to be near 2 inches by the middle of afternoon if you believe the NWS totals and timing. That might create a delay then cancel scenario like we had a couple of weeks ago.

I will be up late and will post another update once the models run and I can see some results. I hope they come in with a bit more juice than the previous could of runs. If not, my low end call might stand for another forecast cycle.

Winter Storm Watch

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THUR NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THUR NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME ICY FRI MORNING. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS BY FRI AFTERNOON. BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW FRI EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN & SNOW BEGIN BY 4 AM NEAR VINCENNES AND REACH INPOLIS BY 7 AM.

* OTHER IMPACTS: DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT.

Cautiously Optimistic

I am going to remain cautious with my forecast for now. We should remain just north of the heaviest snow band. My caution is based upon the possibility we get missed just south and east and could have rather low snow totals when this finished.

With that said, I think my call of 2 to 4 inches remains good for now.

I know some others have been more bullish but we are still more than 48 hours from seeing the main show.

More later...

HPC Map...

Things look good from the HPC and the NWS in Indianapolis has said the following...

...AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...

I will look to provide a noon update on the situation.

Snow Is Forecast...

I am going to take a conservative approach to this system tonight and not go overboard with the forecast. It is important to note this forecast is much closer range and has much more model verification than the previous storm which clobbered the south this past weekend. Also most professional meteorologists are buying into the storm so I feel I am doing more than wishcasting on this one...

There is pretty solid support for widespread significant snow across our area including much of Indiana and Ohio. The system is building as it moves east so expect higher snow totals as you go into Ohio from this system. Further east, the middle Atlantic states also will be hit again with snow similar to their powerful snow maker from December. As someone said, could Washington D.C. had two of their top 10 snows in the same year? Very possible.

Look for a lot of forecast changes on Wednesday as the picture become clearer and it would not surprise me to see some snow advisories issued in the afternoon for the upcoming snow. The timing is not good for anyone looking for a Friday snow day. While I can see some snow beginning around the start of school, the real snow will start late afternoon and continue into Saturday morning. That means Friday night ballgames could be in serious jeopardy. Saturday sports event forget about 'em.

This also should be a wet snow which will complicate matter some since it will fall overnight, most people will wake up to the snow and have to move a lot of it at once on Saturday.

The models have tossed out some impressive but not obscene numbers for the total. However I think a conservative call at this time is 2 to 4 inches and I have no doubt those total will be raise as we get closer to the event. This will likely be the biggest snow of the season and possibly in the past couple of winters. (7.5" was the biggest in 08/09.)

I would suggest making plans for a weekend at home watching the Colts and to get your snack foods early. If you wait until the totals become higher and the general public more knowledgeable, you might find the grocery stores packed Thursday evening and Friday.

Winter does have a chance to redeem itself from the grade F I issued a few days ago. I am not sure this system will do it by itself but there could be a repeat early next week. Wouldn't that be something!

Snow is coming...

It looks like I will have a lot to sort out tonight for the Friday and Saturday forecast. Accumulating/plowable snow is almost certain at this point. Look for my forecast around 10 PM tonight.

Back On Board...

I have not had time to give the Friday/Saturday snow system a deep review but there seems to be a lot of positives and we should see some snow and I don't mean a dusting. Look for updates later this evening but enjoy this snow map for now...

Overnight Snow

I didn't want to overlook the snow tonight into tomorrow. It won't be much more than a heavy dusting to a couple of tenths. Mainly just slick roads and sidewalks.

More Fail...

Storm Fail. Winter Fail.

Bah!

I guess there is nothing to see here. Towel is handy and likely will be thrown in tomorrow. Dumb me for even think we had some chance as a snow making system. My bad.