Thursday, December 9, 2010

Which Jet...

The question is where will this system enter the US from the Pacific.  That can determine how this storm's direction over our area.  At this point there is not a lot of model agreement and we are about 48 hours from this event beginning to impact the region.  You can see the various tracks below.



This is a great representation of forecasters and NWS offices still today with regards to deciding the actual track.


Some respected NWS mets have said that most solutions remain on the table.  Even a few that show a historic snowstorm.  For us, the idea of a historic snowstorm seems to have past.  I think at best we would see some impacts but not a direct hit.  More than likely we remain with a change over to snow on Sunday and accumulations will likely be 1 to 3 inches if go with the major models and their limited agreement.  (I will say this and get burned by the afternoon run of the Euro.) 



Did I mention there looks to be another weekend storm next week? More fun to come...

1 comment:

matt said...

How much longer before the path and impact are pretty certain? Like >70%? I know that any winter forecast is never totally right and a minor shift in any direction drastically changes that.