Top Weather Stories 2008

The NWS in Indianapolis has created the Top Weather Stories for 2008. It is a great list for the state but I felt I should do one more for our specific location. These are in no special order.

Earthquake (4/18) - Not long after the mysterious sonic booms, we were shaken awake in the early morning by a 5.4 magnitude earthquake.

Snow Bust (1/31) - There were a lot of busted forecasts for snow but none bigger than the one on January 31 where we went from a major storm with a forecast of 8+ inches to basically nothing. Opps...

Clipper Surprise (2/19) - While there were many busted forecasts that went the wrong way, the clipper surprised us with a nice heavy band over Howard County. A couple of inches turned into four to five inches.

Angela Buchman (3/1) - Angela declares her love for Kokomo-Weather. *grin*

Cold December (12/1-31) - Even with a near record warm and more moderate temperatures the last few days, December was a cold month.

You will notice no mention of flooding or severe weather on my list. While there was plenty of both around Indiana, Howard County came our unscathed. Most severe weather forecasts were non events for us and we just missed several devastating rains.

I personally wish to thank everyone that visits and supports Kokomo-Weather and wish you and your loved ones a very happy new year.

Cold Wasted...

December was like November where the overall overage was 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Sadly the cold temperatures were wasted on the above normal precipitation. It seemed like each and every time significant precipitation came, we warmed up to either get rain or freezing rain. Right now we have around 3 inches of snow for the season.

The future forecast doesn't look any brighter. There are several events many days away which look marginal. Tonight a clipper system will sweep across the county bringing a narrow but nice band of snow for many to our north before it scoots out east. We might see a dusting.

Another system Thursday night into Friday will drop an inch or two across the region. Just enough to wet or appetite for snow but not enough to satisfy.

I guess it is still too early to give up hope but if we cannot see some snow soon, then let's just go back to the 60's we have on Saturday.

Becoming More Settled

The volatile weather pattern we have been experiencing will take a break for through the middle of the week. A small clipper system drops down Tuesday evening but will just brush northern Indiana maybe offering a dusting of snow. Temperatures will be seasonally moderate for the week ahead. Precipitation also looks to be below average.

Friday and Saturday could possible bring in a minor snow event with 1 to 3 inches possible.

SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER

The SPC has moved the slight risk area up to include our area of Indiana. Straight line winds look to be the primary threat for the afternoon and evening. The front line of storm progressing through IL have been warned across most of the state. The line is very near the IN/IL border.

Warm Baby Warm

It is nice to feel the warmer temperatures after weeks and weeks of bitter cold. Enjoy it today while it lasts since a strong cold front will push through this evening bringing us back to more seasonal temperatures. We also look to be too far east for any significant severe weather but a wind advisory is in effect for the afternoon. Batten down the hatches.

Merry Christmas & More Ugly Weather

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of my loyal blog readers.

As for the weather, look for some possible freezing rain in the overnight hours into tomorrow early morning. That might make for some early bargain shoppers seeing slick roads. We then warm us and have rain, rain, and more rain for Friday and Saturday. There could be a severe storm possible on Saturday ahead of the cold front.

Things Still Dicey

We have been right at the freezing mark for the last four hours. Temperatures have been nearly steady and surfaces remain cold enough to cause freezing. There should be a continued rise overnight be it seems to not be as quick as expected.

There are numerous accidents due to slick roads in addition to scattered power outages.

Not As Much Ice...

It looks like the ice threat has diminished for us this evening and overnight. While there still could be some light ice accumulations, the surge of warm air from the south should bring the temperatures up rather quickly making for just a few hours of potential for freezing rain.

However there still will be slick travel conditions from late afternoon into tomorrow morning. One should be careful exercising any travel plans. By Christmas Eve, we should be all rain washing away any snow/sleet/ice laying around.

A more significant threat come this weekend with a potential for severe weather along with flooding. The warm temperatures across the state (middle 40's north to lower 60's south) along with 1"+ possible of rain will cause rapid melting of exiting snow and ice bringing the potential for flooding to many areas.

Tuesday/Wednesday Looks Ugly

The weather should be ugly Tuesday evening and overnight. We could experience another round of winter weather with a brief bit of snow before the temperatures warm up to being freezing rain/ice/sleet beginning just after the drive home from work. Amounts from 1/1o" to 1/2" of ice is possible with the warmer surge.

By Wednesday morning, we should be all rain but as witnessed last Friday, just a bit of ice can cause sporadic and widespread power outages.

Doubtful there will be any white Christmas this year for our area. We turn wildly warmer after Christmas with the possibility of severe weather Friday night into Saturday.

WINTER STORM WATCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
402 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

WIND CHILLS FROM 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE
AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST
VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SNOW...SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

More Ugly Weather

As you can already feel, the temperatures and wind chills are quite cold with noon temperatures near zero for our area. Highs will remain single digits today and break into the low teens for Monday. Temperatures become more moderate by Wednesday with near freezing forecast.

The bad news is we seem to have another overrunning event ice and sleet coming in to make miserable and dangerous conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. More details to come on this wicked event.

Sleet Saved Us

The sleet was a blessing keeping the ice totals down. There was still some problems with tree limbs and power lines. Kokomo-Weather/ScanKokomo.com ended up with no power for 9 hours or so.

This storm did go a bit further north than planned. Some indications as the low formed that it was further south than forecast so many expected a further south track but it never materialized.

So what is next with the weather? Cold temperatures for Sunday into Monday but that north/northwest trend looks to be taking the next two snow threats away. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a white Christmas.

9AM Temps are climbing...

6 AM & No Power

Working off battery currently. We are right at the temperature mark to change over. Precipitation looks to end in the next couple of hours anyway. There are 750+ Duke Energy customers without power. Here is the outage map - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp

11 PM Temps

Zr (Freezing rain) reported in Lafayette. The good news is the weather sort of wrapped around delaying the start here. I also have checked the power outage reports for both IL and IN and it looks pretty quiet for now.

10 PM Temps

9 PM Temps...

There is freezing rain over much of the southern 2/3 of IL now.

8 PM Temps / Concern

It looks like ice is going to be more than forecast. The warm air aloft seems to be underdone by the forecast models. It looks like it will cause more problems for everyone. The SPC is thinking icing rates of .10 to .25 per hour.

7 PM Temps

6 PM Temperatures

The surface temperature will be the critical factor tonight.

Morning Update

Not many changes or updates to the potential ice storm other that it appears to be 3 hours later than first thought which should help with people getting home tonight but be squarely an issue for tomorrow morning.

Ice, Ice, Baby...

Looks like tomorrow will involve a lot of careful weather nowcasting with the potential for ice tomorrow evening and overnight. Stay tuned...

ICE STORM WARNING

...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY...

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
ANDERSON...MUNCIE
1043 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. AS IT DOES...A STRONG
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A SITUATION WHERE COLD AIR AT THE GROUND
ALLOWS RAIN FALLING TO FREEZE ON SURFACES.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER 4 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER 7 PM. GRADUALLY...
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEFORE
THIS HAPPENS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.

Ice Likely Thusday Night

I made it ok through the dentist. It looks like Ice will be the major concern for our area. Ugh!

Rain & Freezing Rain Finsihes The Week...

Some freezing rain will start out Thursday evening into the overnight but warm air should push into our area by predawn Friday turning everything into rain. We will be close on temperatures so a minor sag south of the cold air could make things much worse for us. Right now the worst icing issues looks to be centered along I-80 with significant snow further north across the lakes.

Another system will come in later this weekend bring a good chance for widespread snow (2-4 inches) across the region. Another storm follows that also potentially bringing a white Christmas.

Update Schedule: I may not be able to provide any updates today. I get to visit the dentist for a root canal. :(

Another Mess Coming

Another mess is coming our way for Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. While we should be mostly rain, there will be some freezing rain causing ice problems for our area. We are in a 40% probability area for ice by 7 AM Friday morning. At this time, it is difficult to predict the two hour potential (or even closing) for area schools on Friday given the mixing possibilities and rising temperatures.

Mostly Done...

We are mostly done with the precipitation but some scattered freezing drizzle is likely adding to glaze already on roadways and sidewalks. I am very confident about the 2 hour delay for area schools on Wednesday morning.

The next system comes Thursday and Friday. We look to be right in the battleground where we could get anything from snow, sleet, rain, or ice.

The pipeline of storms is taking its toll on the NWS forecast computers. Tonight the NAM has stalled before finishing and the GFS has not yet started. It should have been running 45 minutes ago. To add insult to injury, the Indianapolis office of the NWS has a phone line cut and lost its radar and cannot operate the weather radio network across central Indiana.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

It is quite a mess outside with not even an inch of snow fallen so far. Things look to continue off and on overnight giving way to a couple of inches of snow plus the possibility of some freezing rain/ice giving a nice glaze to everything.

The hits will keep coming with two more systems in the pipe taking us through the weekend. More details on those coming up...

SNOW!

There will be some accumulating snow falling to whiten things up this evening and overnight mixed with some light sleet or freezing rain. Some flurries could even start in the afternoon. Snow accumulations should be about 2 inches. Better snow will be to our north and snow and sleet and ice issues will be along the Ohio River area.

This one is just a taste that could delay area schools on Wednesday depending on the timing of the precipitation.

Snow - Sleet - Ice

Looks like another wintry mix for Tuesday evening and the overnight. Not thinking anything dramatic but this system should provide a nice snow pack / cold foundation for the next system which looks to be bigger.

For the Tuesday into Wednesday system, expect a couple of inches of snow, a mix of sleet, and maybe a glaze of ice. Also expect good chances for a two hour delay on Wednesday for area schools.

Slick Roads

The sleet wasn't much but it fell at a very inopportune time causing some area schools to delay. Look for improvements as salt trucks and traffic help melt the fallen precipitation from roadways.

Temperatures have crashed from 55 degrees at 2 AM to 18 degrees in six hours. Look for temperatures to level off shortly.

Some snow will come back into the area Tuesday overnight into Wednesday which could result in another school delays. It is not expected to be significant enough for a closing unless the precipitation turns to frozen.

An interesting day...

There has been quite a few dramatic temperature drops today as the front passed. Joplin, MO broke a record at 71 and later was 19 with thundersleet. Many places dropped several dozen degrees in an hour.

What is in store for us?


That is a good question. The front should pass through our area around 2 to 3 AM with steadily dropping temperatures. There is considerable precipitation in IL but I am not sold it will all make it here. However there will be some which could make things interesting.

Still lots more weather this week to be decided. Stay tuned.

Windy and Wintry

It has been a tough few days for forecasters trying to come to consensus on what will happen Sunday into Monday and beyond. This forecast is about very fine details which will likely be only available using current observations and nowcasting. The forecast is still somewhat going to be generalized.

The tricky part of seeing where the moisture goes and how the Arctic air follows the cold front. Even the weather models runs last evening had several hundred miles in differences in where the freezing line at both the surface and 850mb (5000'). Those two items are critical in deciding what type of precipitation will fall.

As you already know, the day is windy and this is expected to continue through Monday around dawn as the front passes. You can see the forecast position of the front by the GFS Model for 1 AM and 7 AM over Indiana in the two images below.

Monday 1 AM

Monday 7 AM

There is rain ahead of the front. The rain on the surface can freeze with the rapid drop in temperatures. Behind the front is the bigger question. Post frontal precipitation has been all over the forecast maps. Everything from non existent to significant snow and ice has been shown. However the past couple of days it seems there will not be any heavy snow dump (unless it is a BIG surprise) but around 1 inch of accumulation with little to none equally as likely.

The 10AM sounding shows some the potential for freezing rain. While there is cold surface air, the temperature aloft are warm enough for rain. The good news is for Monday the post frontal precipitation is pretty minimal so while things could get tricky on walkways and roads, it is unlikely there will be massive ice damage and power outages as recently experienced out east. It also could be a tricky call for area school making calls for a snow day or 2 hour delay.


I won't beyond Monday in detail but will mention the HPC has our area under a 10% probability for a 1/4" of ice from Tuesday 7 AM to Wednesday 7 AM.


Finally, I want to give you a quick view of the cold front and temperature gradient as it now stands over Iowa. You can see the extreme rapid drop in temperatures on the observation map and the satellite view is very defined.

Fw: Non-Precipitation Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008

.A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING INDIANA.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG WIND WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.NEW.KIND.WI.Y.0008.081214T1200Z-081215T1200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY.

A STRONG SOUTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THIS SITUATION.

AFFECTED COUNTIES:
IN INDIANA: BARTHOLOMEW, BOONE, BROWN, CARROLL, CLAY, CLINTON, DAVIESS, DECATUR, DELAWARE, FOUNTAIN, GREENE, HAMILTON, HANCOCK, HENDRICKS, HENRY, HOWARD, JACKSON, JENNINGS, JOHNSON, KNOX, LAWRENCE, MADISON, MARION, MARTIN, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, MORGAN, OWEN, PARKE, PUTNAM, RANDOLPH, RUSH, SHELBY, SULLIVAN, TIPPECANOE, TIPTON, VERMILLION, VIGO, WARREN.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Upcoming Storm...

Our next storm system is taking shape and will ease into the area later tonight and tomorrow. The bulk of the system will come late Sunday into the overnight with rain with warm temperatures falling into Monday. There will be a change over to wintry precipitation as the cold front passes. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much and what kinds wintry precipitation there will fall.

As the cold front passes, there will be a shallow layer of cold air which could deliver some light icing to surfaces before the change over to all snow. The models have been going back and forth with the amount of post frontal precipitation (or snow). Even on the light side I would expect to see an inch or two. The Friday models had 6 to 8 inches for our area but have back off on the two latest runs.

Next week does see several systems moving through with potential for disruptive travel and school plans. More details as we get closer to the events.

SPS from KIND wind advisory

http://kamala.cod.edu/in/latest.wwus83.KIND.html
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Sorry, No Update

I'm sorry about the lack of a promised update but today has been crazy busy at work and I am unable to take a full lunch and get out an update. (It was a scarf and run quickie today.) I promise to bring together a nice update on a difficult forecast later this evening when I get home from a basketball game.

Changes in our Future?

Well, maybe the pattern changed but now some winter weather may still be coming out way. No specifics yet given the recent history of busts. However I would stay tuned and look for a specific forecast around lunch tomorrow for our next system coming Sunday-Tuesday.

December Winter Cancel

After a much below normal temperatures for the start of December, we can now look forward to warmer temperatures. You can seen an -8 to -15 degree below normal average for the first 8 days of the month.
The details were never very good in the medium and long range with the forecast models but the pattern was reasonable accurate. If we look ahead at the pattern through Christmas, we should expect more seasonal temperatures if not slightly above. There is no trough digging deep from Canada and no Arctic air mass over most of the eastern US.

Also missing are any potential snow makers. Even the back end snow from the current system is now a (painful) memory. I see more potential for thunderstorms/severe weather in Indiana now than snow for the next 10 to 14 days.

What Could Have Been...

The storm is cranking to our north. Just think what could have been. The winds are pushing the temperatures up from the gulf. A fellow in central Wisconsin has up a snow cam you can enjoy by clicking here - http://www.justin.tv/weatherfreak

Great Event For WI & MI

This is going to be a great event for portions of Wisconsin and Michigan. This comment from the Milwaukee NWS office makes it hurt even more:

IT WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

Can you imagine if we had gotten what was promised just few days ago. The northwest trend due seemed in full effect last year and again this year. This storm will be a soaker for us with possible snow/sleet mixing on both the front end and back end. Accumulations will be in the one to two inch range for snow with another inch for rain.

Stick A Fork In Us - We're Done

I know I am giving up early but I just cannot see anything that will make the models change their mind and show us getting the storm. Now mother nature might think differently but everything says she doesn't.

NWS LOT STATEMENT

The Chicago office if the NWS has put this in their forcast discussion...

THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL OR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR NORTHERN INDIANA WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MANY VARIABLES NEED TO COME INTO PLAY FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP...AND IF JUST ONE IS MISSING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. IN
ADDITION...ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM
WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ICE...OR MOSTLY
RAIN FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

It's White Outside Again

The clipper brought in an inch or so of snow. Occasional light rain has been reported and it is freezing on surfaces. Other than making some slick conditions, it should not cause any major problem with downed trees or power lines. (Of course that isn't stopping the crazy drivers from having wrecks everywhere.)

Next week: It has been a roller coaster of a ride and the storm is shaping up to be a good one but I think it will be a swing and a miss for us. The warm air pushing put of the gulf has moved the rain/snow like north of Indiana. There does appear a significant amount of rain is on tap now. (If snow we could have easily made 10-15 inches.)

However snow lovers should not give up hope yet. There still is some final adjusting of the final path and the clipper system can now be officially sampled that data used by the models. The ensembles also show some solutions where we are in thick of it. We just need to wait and see.

Next Weeks Storm

Let's put the weekend clipper system behind us for now. It is pretty much a lock for a 1" snowfall on Saturday.

The big question looming is the Tuesday system. It has trended west/northwest a bit in the 12Z model runs. That is good for the precipitation. The bad news is the temperatures are too warm. For snow to fall, you need a small handful of items to occur.


You need moisture/precipitable water, a thickness pressure of 540mb, and the surface temperatures and 850mb (5000') temperatures to be below freezing. A warm southern flow which is making a nice transport of moisture from the gulf is also bring up warm temperatures.


Both the surface and 850mb temperatures are marginal at best. There should be some backside snow but the font end would be loaded with rain. That is nothing but bad news for snow lovers.


If there was some good news in this is there still is a lot of time between now and the actual storm. The models have also done a lot of flip-flopping back and forth on temperatures for the week including the Arctic blast Thursday through Saturday. Just 36 hours ago it was forecasting Friday to be all below zero and now has it teens. It has gone back and forth with each model run.


I suspect the best thing is to take a wait and see approach for now. The clipper could make some subtle changes to the overall pattern which could be good for us wanting snow. I think my call will for the snow amounts will come Sunday evening sometime. Until then, I just keep hoping.

Saturday Clipper

The Saturday clipper remain on track for an inch of snow. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the weekend too.

The models have settled down on the storm next week and have trended southeast and weaker. There also has been some signs of mixing with the thickness value borderline for some of the event on Tuesday. It is still early to make any final call so keep checking back over the weekend for updates.

School Delay Bust & What's Next...

I busted with my suggestion about a school delay for Thursday. I was surprised to see the roads as dry as they were this morning. Oh well...

There are several things to look forward to if you like snow. There is a clipper system moving down over the weekend making a little bit of snow on Saturday. Likely trace amounts to an inch. Nothing to get excited about.

The real deal could be next week with a system moving in late on Monday into Tuesday. This system could be a real snow maker with cold Arctic air in place and moisture coming up from the gulf. Forecast models have been pretty consistent with an inch or more of precipitation would could translate into 10 inches or more of snow.

That is followed by very cold weather for the period Thursday through Saturday.

Snow/Rain Line

It is close to our area. Expect a change to all snow by 11PM.

Ugly Forecast

The warm temperature is melting the snow away. Some light rain will begin around the early evening before changing to all snow a little after midnight. About 1/10 if an inch of rain plus 1/2" of snow accumulation. While not much of of either type of precipitation, the temperature will be well below the freezing mark by the Thursday rush hour so expect a slick trip in. (I have moderate confidence in a two hour delay for area schools.)

Rain & Snow Mix

Wednesday afternoon will bring us rain ahead of the approaching cold front. The rain plus warm temperatures will likely melt our current snow cover. The rain will change over to snow in the evening as temperatures plunge.

The plunge to the low 20's has the chance to flash freeze the rain and melted snow making for slick conditions. It could make the Thursday morning commute quite treacherous.

School Delay & Our Next Snow Event...

The 2 hour delay for area county schools this morning seems warranted. Very slick roads and I hear numerous minor accidents/slide offs on the scanner.

Our next snow event will start as rain on Wednesday and turn to snow Wednesday night. It is a clipper system so it won't track northwest. Expect 1 to 2 inches depending on timing of the cold front.

Missed The Snow Delay Call

I mised the snow delay call this morning. The snow and wind overnight didn't come about as planned. Oh well, maybe I can pull one out on Thursday. *wink*

Thanks to the NWS in Indianapolis

Just a short note of thank you to the Indianapolis office of the National Weather Service. I was critical of their AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) yesterday with its weak information and lack of an update. Today they have done an excellent job with the AFD and the detail. Thanks again.

Snow by Morning with Wind!

Some additional snow will fall overnight and should still be falling for the morning travel. (Expect chaos on the roads.) Conditions will also be hampered with wind causing blowing snow and limited visibility. Given the information above, I am very, very confident there will be a 2 hour delay for area schools.

Power On - Fog Setting In

The power is on and I have everything at work and home back online. I did see the fog rolling in making for low visibility while I was out. Drivers need to remember to turn on their headlights.

Power Outage

There are 4700 customer in Howard County without power.

See here - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana-business/outages/current.asp

The Good News & The Bad...

The good news is we did pretty good all things considered. More good news is the cloud deck seems to still be in place even with the precipitation stopping so I don't think the sun will pop out to melt our snow. The bad news is temperatures are rising and will likely be in the middle 30's later and some melting could happen.

The even worse news is the old northwest trend which was in full effect from last winter is back. This storm started has went northwest on the models all week long and is still tracking northwest even today. This will not make for either easy winter forecasting and will likely disappoint many all winter long.

Three Inches

I measured 3 inches in several spots around the yard. I must admit I had doubts given the continued track forecast to move northwest of our area. Now the dry slot is moving in and warmer temps could cause some melting before a second wave come in later today.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH INDIANA IS
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WET
SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET IS CREATING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

NWS Indianapolis

The NWS in Indianapolis is the last office to make any changes to the forecast. There is a Winter Weather Advisory to our north and west. If you wanted to fill in the gaps, then the NWS in Indianapolis needs to issue an advisory northwest of a line from Kokomo to Terra Haute.

A Near Miss...

It appears this storm will be cranking up but it is going be north and west of our location. I wouldn't be surprised to see some places over 8 inches. A slight shift to the east would be sweet but I guess we just take our 1-3 inches and enjoy it.

Nothing New...

Not anything new to report with the forecast. The 1-3 inch snow total still holds. Temperatures are right at freezing so there could be some mixing early on. Overall the NWS is being pretty quiet with storm hype. Given the number of busts last season, it doesn't surprise me.

Is there a snow day in our near future?

Oh, I don't know about a full snow day but I feel pretty good about a 2 hour delay for Monday morning. I have been away today without Internet access (bad story about that) so I am catching up quickly. I

t seems there still is not a consensus with the models on where the final storm track will happen. That leaves some uncertainly on the final snow amounts. There also is a large and dreaded dry slot to contend with if it moves up from the southeast area of the state.

I will remain with my 1-3" call for now and leave you with a special weather statement from the NWS in northern Indiana.

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DICTATE THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. SINCE IT IS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANYONE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM.THIS STATEMENT IS AN OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF AS IGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. AS INFORMATION AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED. YOU SHOULD BEGIN THINKING ABOUT PREPARATIONS NOW...WELL BEFORE THE EVENT IS SET TO BEGIN. TAKE TIME TO ORGANIZE A PLAN OF ACTION AND CREATE A PREPAREDNESS KIT WITH SUPPLIES SO YOU ARE NOT CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

More Snow Talk

The NWS in Northern Indiana has the first snow graphic out. Again I remain confident in my 1-3" prediction but will likely make updates later today or tomorrow.

Snow Still Forecasted

The model runs this evening have the snow on a track for our area. Still some details to be worked out but now with the system on shore getting better sampling, the models should come into better agreement. For now I feel very confident in my 1-3 inch forecast.

Snow Update (for Sunday & Monday)

It looks like the possibility for accumulating snow is about at good as can be forecast with models in varying disagreement on the final storm track. Still, I won't hesitate to say there will be some snow for us by the end of the day Monday. A conservative guess would be 1-3 inches. Some models show more but I don't think anything will be nailed down until Saturday morning.

Snow Solutions...

If you look at the previous 4 model runs of the GFS, you can see snow seems very likely. Snow totals show 3 to 10" depending on the run.

OK, We need to talk...

The end of the weekend to the start or next week looks like a potentially good snow storm. Yes, I said snow storm. There has been some discussion brewing for more than a week and now the GFS is showing the solution. Well, we hope it is the solution but the last two runs today have it.

Now we do need to pin down the final track and that won't probably happen until tomorrow evening but people in IL, IN, and OH need to be alert. Snow totals could range from 2 to 6 inches with a few isolated areas receiving even more.

I will write a bit more later and show some maps.

Patterns...

There has been a lot of model watching looking for our first snow. We have had several show up 7-10 days out only to disappear and never materialize. That is somewhat disappointing but then again, we have not even had Thanksgiving yet and real winter hasn't even started.

The good in all of this if the favorable pattern which has been forecast and is coming to fruition. At some point this cold pattern with a -NAO has to produce some good snows and not the lake effect trickle of flurries we have been seeing.

I do think there will be on kick butt snow storm by Christmas. My only hope is it comes across the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes and not just for the New England or Middle Atlantic area.

[UPDATE] Latest Forecast Models

The NAM has remain showing rain but the GFS has flipped back to light snow flurries. Either one could be true given the timing of the cold front and moisture will be so close. Unlikely there will be an school delays with this system.

Cold and Snowless For Kokomo

It is cold and will remain cold for quite some time ahead. Temperatures are well below normal and it feels cold. The even worse news is the NAO is going negative which usually is a very good indicator for a storm.

Tonight through Monday should see a rain with some possible mixing. Cold surfaces could freeze making driving or walking a bit tricky for Monday. I did see yesterday the highways were pretreated with the liquid salt mixture in anticipation of the rain/snow/mix.

Snow Sunday Night & Monday

It appears there will be some snow Sunday night into Monday. The accumulations will be on the low side with 1 inch likely over the area. The temperatures are borderline and both the NAM and GFS model show a rain snow mix. Nothing looks to be significant at this time for our area.

9 PM Radar

The snow is coming nicely off the lake but a bit too much to the southeast to get us any. I do expect a small west shift as we progress through the evening. (Click on image to view animation.)

Snow Tonight (Bring it on!)

The models are forecasting some decent lake effect bands making their way down her in the overnight. Some models are thinking 3+ inches but an inch with some scatter amounts of 2 inches across norther Howard county seems more likely.

Either way it will likely make a mess of tomorrow mornings commute. I suggest an early start and sensible driving. The first slick morning of the season usually ends up as a painful reminder to so many drivers.

More Long Range Dreaming For Early December

The closed low on the 500mb chart and lake cutter on the surface chart. Potentially a snow lovers delight.

Of course more model mayhem but it does show there are plenty of solutions for an early December storm somewhere on the eastern portions of the US.

Looking Long Range

There has been a lot of discussion about a significant storm just after the start of December. It has been pretty regular on the long range models. We could get a nice dump of 3 to 6 inches in our area from the system below. The negative tilt to the trough is nice to see but a bit late for us. I do think the GFS is under doing the cold and has a too warm for the start of the systems passage. if so, we could even see more snow. Just a fantasy storm for now but snow believers can always dream. *smile*

COLD!

The models are still all over the road with possible storms but there is good agreement to the cold weather. Another cold shot will come down from northern Canada tomorrow bringing lows into the teens on Thursday night. Some light associated flurries will be possible from extended lake effect snow in our area.

The weekend also looks to remain cold with some showers Sunday into Monday. There is some storminess showing up Tuesday/Wednesday of next week which could include some severe weather across area.

Tease...

Still teasing us with some flurries but no real accumulation. Those further north will see some real lake effect snow with accumulations from 5 to 12+ inches.

Around one inch possible....

Forecast Models Look Interesting

There has been a lot of flip flops between each run but there looks to be some potential for a good snow in somebodies future by Thanksgiving. I guess it is time to really look a little harder at the model runs and find the pattern.

No, you were not seeing things...

There was snow flurries this afternoon. I ran into them on the just north of Howard county on US 31. I also heard a report of freezing rain south of Kokomo. A great shot of cold looks to be coming our way in a few weeks and could last through Christmas.

One energy forecaster which was one of the few who went warm with December has now done a reversal and is going cold. In fact significantly cold with a -3 TO -7 below normal. (Sweet.)

2008-2009 Winter Outlook/Snow Day Prediction

Kokomo-Weather's 2008-2009 Winter Outlook

Many have asked and here it is, the official 2008-2009 Winter Outlook from Kokomo-Weather. Before we get into the meat of the outlook and to the all important snow day prediction for area schools, let me talk about how this forecast came to be, offer some personal commentary, and to review some of last winter.

For many years, I gave into the peer pressure of adulthood and looked to each forecast of snow with despise and dread. That said I knew there was something inside of me that still loved the snow with its splendor and beauty. A couple of years ago, I found out I was not alone with those feelings and decided to allow the snow lover in me come out for all to see. I now look forward to forecasts of snow.

If you have thought as an adult you must despise snow, allow me to set you free. Enjoy each and every snow as if it were your first. Don't curse the slow drive into work but enjoy the extra time you have to enjoy the pristine white landscape. Do it! You will feel better.

I guess I should let you know how this forecast came about. You should know up front I am not trained as a meteorologist or any physical science which might be helpful. I am still a budding amateur with novice skills. While I can do moderately well with understanding short term forecasting, the mysteries of long term forecasting are just that, a mystery.

Even weather professionals politely and sometimes not so politely disagree on how to come up with seasonal outlooks knowing that this isn't an exact science. However the base theory is pretty simple. Find a variety of factors you deem important and look for previous years which were similar and then see what the weather did following. The bad part is weather data collection is still fairly new. Records before 1895 are not comprehensive enough to be useful. Better recorded data started around 1950 and some believe the years of 1970 and beyond are all that can be reliably used to model seasonal data. Remember we need to use data from around the globe and some areas where not technologically advanced to collect and record data until the last half century or so.

What I have done for my forecast is create a composite forecast for north central Indiana from dozens and dozens of other winter outlooks. The forecasters who I selected vary in backgrounds from advanced amateur to national weather service government forecasts to professional meteorologists from energy and agricultural fields. I weeded out forecasts that where just wishcasting for their backyard or ones which had no (sound) reasoning behind them. I think overall I ended up with a good mix but a definite pattern to the winter outlook.

I also did some of my own checking and limited forecasting using some of the information available. However before I present my composite below, lets take a final look at last winter.

The winter of 2007-2008 was one if heartbreak for many in central Indiana. Before I took a more active interest in following winter weather, I never realized how localized snow is to a particular area. For example central Indiana might receive an overnight snow but there can be huge swings in the totals between two locations less than an hour apart by car.

One of the nicest snows of the season came on Saturday December 15th with 4 to 5 inches locally. It sneaked up on us with the final track not revealing itself until the late evening model runs on Thursday. The storm track ended up several hundred miles northwest of originally forecast. In face this storm showed us something we saw all winter long, the northwest trend.

The northwest trend caused much frustration with forecasters and snow lovers alike. About the only thing you can say for sure about the northwest trend is it gave an area of Wisconsin including Madison and Milwaukee more than 100 inches of snow.

We busted on numerous snows including the New Years Day snow and the infamous February 1st bust which was most embarrassing and frustrating to everyone. Everyone had predicted a huge storm which should have crippled the entire region. There had been no northwestern trend with the forecast models and many believed the trend was broken.

Not! The storms low pressure tracked a good 100 to 150 miles northwest. That combined with a dryslot which hovered over Howard County made our predictions of 8-12 inches bust horribly. Just 1 to 2 inches ultimately fell before the storm ended.

A surprise clipper system dropped 4 to 5 inches on the 20th. In reality it should not have been a surprise but confidence levels were pretty low with the forecast models I think most people discounted the system.

There were a few rounds of severe weather thrown in besides the snow to keep everything interesting.

In the end, I busted on the number of snow days Howard County area schools predicting 6 and receiving only 3. However there were two storms which if they didn't hit on a weekend or break would have made my prediction perfect.

So with that said, let's get on with the forecast...

Official Winter Outlook for Howard County, Indiana

Most forecasts consulted speak of a “bookend winter” where we have cold followed by warmth finished by cold again.

Spring will get a late start with cooler than average temperature hanging on through March and April.

Temperature Averages and Forecast (for Kokomo)

December:
Max: 35.8
Min: 21.8
Mean: 28.5

Forecast : Below Average

January:
Max: 30.5
Min: 15
Mean: 22.8

Forecast : Average to Above Average

February:
Max: 35.5
Min: 18.8
Mean: 27

Forecast : Below Average

While there will be a warming in January possibly lasting into the first of February, that doesn't mean we cannot see snow during the warm. Also I believe we will get the snow going possibly as early as Thanksgiving.

Snowfall Averages and Forecast (for Kokomo)

November thru March: 43.10 inches

Forecast: Above Average 50 to 60 inches

Summary: Look for a cold start and finish to winter with a late spring with several weeks of a warm pattern in the middle. There will be several significant snows with December and February looking like the snowiest months.

Neither overall snowfall or overall temperatures will be record breaking.

Something to consider is the early November warmth of last week. We had 6 days of 70 degree temperatures. While no daily record was set, there have been just a few years which had such a warm start to November. They include the notable winters of 71-72, 77-78, and 78-79.

>>>Snow Day Prediction (for Howard County Area Schools): 4 snow days by March 15, 2009.

Credits/Reference:

John Ruggiano
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Allen Hoffman
Wes, Chuck, HM, Brandon, and many more.

Fw: Non-Precipitation Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

310 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008



...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH SUNDAY...



COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:



/O.NEW.KIND.WI.Y.0007.081026T1300Z-081026T2200Z/

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...

CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE

310 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008



...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY.



STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY

GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER ARE

EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY

FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.







AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN INDIANA: BOONE, CARROLL, CLINTON, DELAWARE, FOUNTAIN, HAMILTON, HOWARD, MADISON, MONTGOMERY, PARKE, RANDOLPH, TIPPECANOE, TIPTON, VERMILLION, WARREN

Rain & Chilly

The rain is moving into the area and will hang around for the next couple of days. Expect 1/2" to 3/4" when all is said and done. There will be a deep cold surge for the first half of next week. East coasters could even see some possible snow showers.

There should be warming after Halloween for our area. No blowtorch but highs in the comfortable 60's.

Cooler Temps

No doubt it has been fall like for the past several days. It will remain cooler over into November. While I don't expect snow, seeing some crystal flakes falling around Halloween wouldn't surprise me. Make sure your costume is warm.

Perfect Weekend...

I almost said it was going to be a perfect fall weekend but with sunshine and temperatures in the 80's, I guess it will be more summer like instead. There is some possible severe weather early to mid next week with an approaching cold front and moisture from remnants of a pacific hurricane. Stay tuned...

More Winter Forecasts

I have been reading more and more winter forecasts from professionals and serious amateurs alike. They have been varied with their predictions and what they are using to base those predictions. It makes for a lot of reading. While I don't want to tip my hat just yet, I can say I like more and more of what I see. (Hint, hint..)

Winter Forecast

I just read an awful forecast for winter from a professional forecaster in the energy market. He is forecasting a warm winter of +3 to +7 temperatures for Indiana. Now I have to figure out what this does for our snow chances.

FIRST FANTASY SNOW SPOTTED

The GFS is a long range computer model. Usually anything more than 3 to 5 days is considered a fantasy and then is especially true when it comes to snow. Today the GFS is showing some LES (Lake Effect Snow) for upstate New York in a couple of weeks.

We know it is too warm and highly unlikely but seeing the first "fantasy snow" on a computer model sure gets one excited for winter. :)

Excellent Weather

Last week was great weather and this weeks looks to be just as good but slightly warmer. It is officially fall and cooler nights are here.

Some of the winter outlooks are slowly being revealed by many professional meteorologists. The first couple look interesting and cold. :)

Wind Advisory

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.

REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE IKE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CNTL IN TODAY. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

Spared So Far...

The severe weather and the significant rain has spared our area of the state today. Areas to our northwest and north have seen a lot of rain. Chicago has set an all time single day rain total with nearly 7 inches in spots. The rain is still coming down for them. A few isolated tornadoes have been reported in Michigan and just south if the Michigan and Indiana border.

I do see a couple of isolated thunderstorms in south central Illinois that could rake across our area if they manage to hold together.

Severe Weather Possible Today/Evening

The severe weather parameters look somewhat promising for the northern 1/3 of the state. My best guess right now would be Valpo to Monon to Lima, OH to Toledo, OH. It will be something worth watching.

RAIN, HURRICANE IKE, & MORE RAIN...

There is a huge swath of rain covering the country. Between a stalled cold front and Ike bring tropical moisture our way, there is potential for 5 inches, maybe more by Tuesday.