The NWS in Indianapolis has created the Top Weather Stories for 2008. It is a great list for the state but I felt I should do one more for our specific location. These are in no special order.
Earthquake (4/18) - Not long after the mysterious sonic booms, we were shaken awake in the early morning by a 5.4 magnitude earthquake.
Snow Bust (1/31) - There were a lot of busted forecasts for snow but none bigger than the one on January 31 where we went from a major storm with a forecast of 8+ inches to basically nothing. Opps...
Clipper Surprise (2/19) - While there were many busted forecasts that went the wrong way, the clipper surprised us with a nice heavy band over Howard County. A couple of inches turned into four to five inches.
Angela Buchman (3/1) - Angela declares her love for Kokomo-Weather. *grin*
Cold December (12/1-31) - Even with a near record warm and more moderate temperatures the last few days, December was a cold month.
You will notice no mention of flooding or severe weather on my list. While there was plenty of both around Indiana, Howard County came our unscathed. Most severe weather forecasts were non events for us and we just missed several devastating rains.
I personally wish to thank everyone that visits and supports Kokomo-Weather and wish you and your loved ones a very happy new year.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Top Weather Stories 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Cold Wasted...
December was like November where the overall overage was 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Sadly the cold temperatures were wasted on the above normal precipitation. It seemed like each and every time significant precipitation came, we warmed up to either get rain or freezing rain. Right now we have around 3 inches of snow for the season. The future forecast doesn't look any brighter. There are several events many days away which look marginal. Tonight a clipper system will sweep across the county bringing a narrow but nice band of snow for many to our north before it scoots out east. We might see a dusting.
Another system Thursday night into Friday will drop an inch or two across the region. Just enough to wet or appetite for snow but not enough to satisfy.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Becoming More Settled
The volatile weather pattern we have been experiencing will take a break for through the middle of the week. A small clipper system drops down Tuesday evening but will just brush northern Indiana maybe offering a dusting of snow. Temperatures will be seasonally moderate for the week ahead. Precipitation also looks to be below average.
Friday and Saturday could possible bring in a minor snow event with 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER
Warm Baby Warm
It is nice to feel the warmer temperatures after weeks and weeks of bitter cold. Enjoy it today while it lasts since a strong cold front will push through this evening bringing us back to more seasonal temperatures. We also look to be too far east for any significant severe weather but a wind advisory is in effect for the afternoon. Batten down the hatches.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Merry Christmas & More Ugly Weather
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of my loyal blog readers.
As for the weather, look for some possible freezing rain in the overnight hours into tomorrow early morning. That might make for some early bargain shoppers seeing slick roads. We then warm us and have rain, rain, and more rain for Friday and Saturday. There could be a severe storm possible on Saturday ahead of the cold front.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Things Still Dicey
We have been right at the freezing mark for the last four hours. Temperatures have been nearly steady and surfaces remain cold enough to cause freezing. There should be a continued rise overnight be it seems to not be as quick as expected.
There are numerous accidents due to slick roads in addition to scattered power outages.
Not As Much Ice...
It looks like the ice threat has diminished for us this evening and overnight. While there still could be some light ice accumulations, the surge of warm air from the south should bring the temperatures up rather quickly making for just a few hours of potential for freezing rain.
However there still will be slick travel conditions from late afternoon into tomorrow morning. One should be careful exercising any travel plans. By Christmas Eve, we should be all rain washing away any snow/sleet/ice laying around.
A more significant threat come this weekend with a potential for severe weather along with flooding. The warm temperatures across the state (middle 40's north to lower 60's south) along with 1"+ possible of rain will cause rapid melting of exiting snow and ice bringing the potential for flooding to many areas.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Tuesday/Wednesday Looks Ugly
The weather should be ugly Tuesday evening and overnight. We could experience another round of winter weather with a brief bit of snow before the temperatures warm up to being freezing rain/ice/sleet beginning just after the drive home from work. Amounts from 1/1o" to 1/2" of ice is possible with the warmer surge.
By Wednesday morning, we should be all rain but as witnessed last Friday, just a bit of ice can cause sporadic and widespread power outages.
Doubtful there will be any white Christmas this year for our area. We turn wildly warmer after Christmas with the possibility of severe weather Friday night into Saturday.
WINTER STORM WATCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
402 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WIND CHILLS FROM 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE
AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST
VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SNOW...SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
More Ugly Weather
As you can already feel, the temperatures and wind chills are quite cold with noon temperatures near zero for our area. Highs will remain single digits today and break into the low teens for Monday. Temperatures become more moderate by Wednesday with near freezing forecast.
The bad news is we seem to have another overrunning event ice and sleet coming in to make miserable and dangerous conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. More details to come on this wicked event.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Sleet Saved Us
The sleet was a blessing keeping the ice totals down. There was still some problems with tree limbs and power lines. Kokomo-Weather/ScanKokomo.com ended up with no power for 9 hours or so.
This storm did go a bit further north than planned. Some indications as the low formed that it was further south than forecast so many expected a further south track but it never materialized.
So what is next with the weather? Cold temperatures for Sunday into Monday but that north/northwest trend looks to be taking the next two snow threats away. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a white Christmas.
6 AM & No Power
Working off battery currently. We are right at the temperature mark to change over. Precipitation looks to end in the next couple of hours anyway. There are 750+ Duke Energy customers without power. Here is the outage map - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp
Thursday, December 18, 2008
11 PM Temps
Zr (Freezing rain) reported in Lafayette. The good news is the weather sort of wrapped around delaying the start here. I also have checked the power outage reports for both IL and IN and it looks pretty quiet for now.
8 PM Temps / Concern
It looks like ice is going to be more than forecast. The warm air aloft seems to be underdone by the forecast models. It looks like it will cause more problems for everyone. The SPC is thinking icing rates of .10 to .25 per hour.
Morning Update
Not many changes or updates to the potential ice storm other that it appears to be 3 hours later than first thought which should help with people getting home tonight but be squarely an issue for tomorrow morning. 
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Ice, Ice, Baby...
Looks like tomorrow will involve a lot of careful weather nowcasting with the potential for ice tomorrow evening and overnight. Stay tuned...
ICE STORM WARNING
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY...
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
ANDERSON...MUNCIE
1043 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. AS IT DOES...A STRONG
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A SITUATION WHERE COLD AIR AT THE GROUND
ALLOWS RAIN FALLING TO FREEZE ON SURFACES.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER 4 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER 7 PM. GRADUALLY...
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEFORE
THIS HAPPENS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.
Ice Likely Thusday Night
I made it ok through the dentist. It looks like Ice will be the major concern for our area. Ugh!
Rain & Freezing Rain Finsihes The Week...
Some freezing rain will start out Thursday evening into the overnight but warm air should push into our area by predawn Friday turning everything into rain. We will be close on temperatures so a minor sag south of the cold air could make things much worse for us. Right now the worst icing issues looks to be centered along I-80 with significant snow further north across the lakes.
Another system will come in later this weekend bring a good chance for widespread snow (2-4 inches) across the region. Another storm follows that also potentially bringing a white Christmas.
Update Schedule: I may not be able to provide any updates today. I get to visit the dentist for a root canal. :(
Another Mess Coming
Another mess is coming our way for Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. While we should be mostly rain, there will be some freezing rain causing ice problems for our area. We are in a 40% probability area for ice by 7 AM Friday morning. At this time, it is difficult to predict the two hour potential (or even closing) for area schools on Friday given the mixing possibilities and rising temperatures.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Mostly Done...
We are mostly done with the precipitation but some scattered freezing drizzle is likely adding to glaze already on roadways and sidewalks. I am very confident about the 2 hour delay for area schools on Wednesday morning.
The next system comes Thursday and Friday. We look to be right in the battleground where we could get anything from snow, sleet, rain, or ice.
The pipeline of storms is taking its toll on the NWS forecast computers. Tonight the NAM has stalled before finishing and the GFS has not yet started. It should have been running 45 minutes ago. To add insult to injury, the Indianapolis office of the NWS has a phone line cut and lost its radar and cannot operate the weather radio network across central Indiana.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
It is quite a mess outside with not even an inch of snow fallen so far. Things look to continue off and on overnight giving way to a couple of inches of snow plus the possibility of some freezing rain/ice giving a nice glaze to everything.
The hits will keep coming with two more systems in the pipe taking us through the weekend. More details on those coming up...
SNOW!
There will be some accumulating snow falling to whiten things up this evening and overnight mixed with some light sleet or freezing rain. Some flurries could even start in the afternoon. Snow accumulations should be about 2 inches. Better snow will be to our north and snow and sleet and ice issues will be along the Ohio River area.
This one is just a taste that could delay area schools on Wednesday depending on the timing of the precipitation.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Snow - Sleet - Ice
Looks like another wintry mix for Tuesday evening and the overnight. Not thinking anything dramatic but this system should provide a nice snow pack / cold foundation for the next system which looks to be bigger.
For the Tuesday into Wednesday system, expect a couple of inches of snow, a mix of sleet, and maybe a glaze of ice. Also expect good chances for a two hour delay on Wednesday for area schools.
Slick Roads
The sleet wasn't much but it fell at a very inopportune time causing some area schools to delay. Look for improvements as salt trucks and traffic help melt the fallen precipitation from roadways.
Temperatures have crashed from 55 degrees at 2 AM to 18 degrees in six hours. Look for temperatures to level off shortly.
Some snow will come back into the area Tuesday overnight into Wednesday which could result in another school delays. It is not expected to be significant enough for a closing unless the precipitation turns to frozen.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
An interesting day...
There has been quite a few dramatic temperature drops today as the front passed. Joplin, MO broke a record at 71 and later was 19 with thundersleet. Many places dropped several dozen degrees in an hour.
What is in store for us?
That is a good question. The front should pass through our area around 2 to 3 AM with steadily dropping temperatures. There is considerable precipitation in IL but I am not sold it will all make it here. However there will be some which could make things interesting.
Still lots more weather this week to be decided. Stay tuned.
Windy and Wintry
It has been a tough few days for forecasters trying to come to consensus on what will happen Sunday into Monday and beyond. This forecast is about very fine details which will likely be only available using current observations and nowcasting. The forecast is still somewhat going to be generalized.
The tricky part of seeing where the moisture goes and how the Arctic air follows the cold front. Even the weather models runs last evening had several hundred miles in differences in where the freezing line at both the surface and 850mb (5000'). Those two items are critical in deciding what type of precipitation will fall.
As you already know, the day is windy and this is expected to continue through Monday around dawn as the front passes. You can see the forecast position of the front by the GFS Model for 1 AM and 7 AM over Indiana in the two images below.
The 10AM sounding shows some the potential for freezing rain. While there is cold surface air, the temperature aloft are warm enough for rain. The good news is for Monday the post frontal precipitation is pretty minimal so while things could get tricky on walkways and roads, it is unlikely there will be massive ice damage and power outages as recently experienced out east. It also could be a tricky call for area school making calls for a snow day or 2 hour delay.
I won't beyond Monday in detail but will mention the HPC has our area under a 10% probability for a 1/4" of ice from Tuesday 7 AM to Wednesday 7 AM.
Finally, I want to give you a quick view of the cold front and temperature gradient as it now stands over Iowa. You can see the extreme rapid drop in temperatures on the observation map and the satellite view is very defined.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Fw: Non-Precipitation Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008
.A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING INDIANA.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG WIND WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
/O.NEW.KIND.WI.Y.0008.081214T1200Z-081215T1200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY.
A STRONG SOUTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THIS SITUATION.
AFFECTED COUNTIES:
IN INDIANA: BARTHOLOMEW, BOONE, BROWN, CARROLL, CLAY, CLINTON, DAVIESS, DECATUR, DELAWARE, FOUNTAIN, GREENE, HAMILTON, HANCOCK, HENDRICKS, HENRY, HOWARD, JACKSON, JENNINGS, JOHNSON, KNOX, LAWRENCE, MADISON, MARION, MARTIN, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, MORGAN, OWEN, PARKE, PUTNAM, RANDOLPH, RUSH, SHELBY, SULLIVAN, TIPPECANOE, TIPTON, VERMILLION, VIGO, WARREN.
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
Upcoming Storm...
Our next storm system is taking shape and will ease into the area later tonight and tomorrow. The bulk of the system will come late Sunday into the overnight with rain with warm temperatures falling into Monday. There will be a change over to wintry precipitation as the cold front passes. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much and what kinds wintry precipitation there will fall.
As the cold front passes, there will be a shallow layer of cold air which could deliver some light icing to surfaces before the change over to all snow. The models have been going back and forth with the amount of post frontal precipitation (or snow). Even on the light side I would expect to see an inch or two. The Friday models had 6 to 8 inches for our area but have back off on the two latest runs.
Next week does see several systems moving through with potential for disruptive travel and school plans. More details as we get closer to the events.
Friday, December 12, 2008
SPS from KIND wind advisory
http://kamala.cod.edu/in/latest.wwus83.KIND.html
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
Sorry, No Update
I'm sorry about the lack of a promised update but today has been crazy busy at work and I am unable to take a full lunch and get out an update. (It was a scarf and run quickie today.) I promise to bring together a nice update on a difficult forecast later this evening when I get home from a basketball game.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Changes in our Future?
Well, maybe the pattern changed but now some winter weather may still be coming out way. No specifics yet given the recent history of busts. However I would stay tuned and look for a specific forecast around lunch tomorrow for our next system coming Sunday-Tuesday.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
December Winter Cancel
After a much below normal temperatures for the start of December, we can now look forward to warmer temperatures. You can seen an -8 to -15 degree below normal average for the first 8 days of the month.
The details were never very good in the medium and long range with the forecast models but the pattern was reasonable accurate. If we look ahead at the pattern through Christmas, we should expect more seasonal temperatures if not slightly above. There is no trough digging deep from Canada and no Arctic air mass over most of the eastern US.
Also missing are any potential snow makers. Even the back end snow from the current system is now a (painful) memory. I see more potential for thunderstorms/severe weather in Indiana now than snow for the next 10 to 14 days.
Monday, December 8, 2008
What Could Have Been...
The storm is cranking to our north. Just think what could have been. The winds are pushing the temperatures up from the gulf. A fellow in central Wisconsin has up a snow cam you can enjoy by clicking here - http://www.justin.tv/weatherfreak
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Great Event For WI & MI
This is going to be a great event for portions of Wisconsin and Michigan. This comment from the Milwaukee NWS office makes it hurt even more:
IT WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
Can you imagine if we had gotten what was promised just few days ago. The northwest trend due seemed in full effect last year and again this year. This storm will be a soaker for us with possible snow/sleet mixing on both the front end and back end. Accumulations will be in the one to two inch range for snow with another inch for rain.
Stick A Fork In Us - We're Done
I know I am giving up early but I just cannot see anything that will make the models change their mind and show us getting the storm. Now mother nature might think differently but everything says she doesn't.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
NWS LOT STATEMENT
The Chicago office if the NWS has put this in their forcast discussion...
THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL OR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR NORTHERN INDIANA WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MANY VARIABLES NEED TO COME INTO PLAY FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP...AND IF JUST ONE IS MISSING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. IN
ADDITION...ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM
WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ICE...OR MOSTLY
RAIN FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
It's White Outside Again
The clipper brought in an inch or so of snow. Occasional light rain has been reported and it is freezing on surfaces. Other than making some slick conditions, it should not cause any major problem with downed trees or power lines. (Of course that isn't stopping the crazy drivers from having wrecks everywhere.)
Next week: It has been a roller coaster of a ride and the storm is shaping up to be a good one but I think it will be a swing and a miss for us. The warm air pushing put of the gulf has moved the rain/snow like north of Indiana. There does appear a significant amount of rain is on tap now. (If snow we could have easily made 10-15 inches.)
However snow lovers should not give up hope yet. There still is some final adjusting of the final path and the clipper system can now be officially sampled that data used by the models. The ensembles also show some solutions where we are in thick of it. We just need to wait and see.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Next Weeks Storm
Let's put the weekend clipper system behind us for now. It is pretty much a lock for a 1" snowfall on Saturday.
The big question looming is the Tuesday system. It has trended west/northwest a bit in the 12Z model runs. That is good for the precipitation. The bad news is the temperatures are too warm. For snow to fall, you need a small handful of items to occur.
You need moisture/precipitable water, a thickness pressure of 540mb, and the surface temperatures and 850mb (5000') temperatures to be below freezing. A warm southern flow which is making a nice transport of moisture from the gulf is also bring up warm temperatures.
Both the surface and 850mb temperatures are marginal at best. There should be some backside snow but the font end would be loaded with rain. That is nothing but bad news for snow lovers.
If there was some good news in this is there still is a lot of time between now and the actual storm. The models have also done a lot of flip-flopping back and forth on temperatures for the week including the Arctic blast Thursday through Saturday. Just 36 hours ago it was forecasting Friday to be all below zero and now has it teens. It has gone back and forth with each model run.
I suspect the best thing is to take a wait and see approach for now. The clipper could make some subtle changes to the overall pattern which could be good for us wanting snow. I think my call will for the snow amounts will come Sunday evening sometime. Until then, I just keep hoping.
Saturday Clipper
The Saturday clipper remain on track for an inch of snow. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the weekend too.
The models have settled down on the storm next week and have trended southeast and weaker. There also has been some signs of mixing with the thickness value borderline for some of the event on Tuesday. It is still early to make any final call so keep checking back over the weekend for updates.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
School Delay Bust & What's Next...
I busted with my suggestion about a school delay for Thursday. I was surprised to see the roads as dry as they were this morning. Oh well...
There are several things to look forward to if you like snow. There is a clipper system moving down over the weekend making a little bit of snow on Saturday. Likely trace amounts to an inch. Nothing to get excited about.
The real deal could be next week with a system moving in late on Monday into Tuesday. This system could be a real snow maker with cold Arctic air in place and moisture coming up from the gulf. Forecast models have been pretty consistent with an inch or more of precipitation would could translate into 10 inches or more of snow.
That is followed by very cold weather for the period Thursday through Saturday.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Ugly Forecast
The warm temperature is melting the snow away. Some light rain will begin around the early evening before changing to all snow a little after midnight. About 1/10 if an inch of rain plus 1/2" of snow accumulation. While not much of of either type of precipitation, the temperature will be well below the freezing mark by the Thursday rush hour so expect a slick trip in. (I have moderate confidence in a two hour delay for area schools.)
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Rain & Snow Mix
Wednesday afternoon will bring us rain ahead of the approaching cold front. The rain plus warm temperatures will likely melt our current snow cover. The rain will change over to snow in the evening as temperatures plunge.
The plunge to the low 20's has the chance to flash freeze the rain and melted snow making for slick conditions. It could make the Thursday morning commute quite treacherous.
School Delay & Our Next Snow Event...
The 2 hour delay for area county schools this morning seems warranted. Very slick roads and I hear numerous minor accidents/slide offs on the scanner.
Our next snow event will start as rain on Wednesday and turn to snow Wednesday night. It is a clipper system so it won't track northwest. Expect 1 to 2 inches depending on timing of the cold front.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Missed The Snow Delay Call
I mised the snow delay call this morning. The snow and wind overnight didn't come about as planned. Oh well, maybe I can pull one out on Thursday. *wink*
