Could this be a late season snow?

This is Friday 3/12.  As much as I want snow, this would be a poor time for me. 

Weekend Snow!

Don't get overly excited but the weekend will bring snow for our area.  Not a significant accumulation but 1 to 2 inches with occasional places seeing 3 inches is possible  This comes from the remnants of the east coast storm system which is coming back around as it spins down.  It will be mostly done by Saturday evening,

Next weeks looks to being another nuisance snow in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.  A couple of inches is all it looks like for now.  Still watching a much bigger storm around March 9th and 10th which could spin up to bring snow or a lot of cold rain. 

Do you want some good news?

Doing some quick checking on historical averages for Kokomo, April 15th is the first day with an average high of 60, May 10th for 70, June 10th for 80 and finally, July 17th and 19th are the only two days with an average high of 85.  (There are none higher.)   So warm weather is coming...

Snow In Our Forecast

The NWS has put snow in our forecast through Sunday.  Chances range from 20 to 50% with light accumulations.  There could be a snow band set up dropping a couple of inches over a small area.  Those are impossible to predict so just be prepared should you run into one of those.  Otherwise, no big weather story as moderate temperatures are also forecast. 

Lake Effect Snow

LES can create little snow bands almost anywhere.  This morning I was over near the Howard County Airport and saw a nice dusting of snow and slick roads.  I drove back to US 31 near the Chrysler plants on the north side and virtually nothing. 

It look like over an inch has fallen this evening on the west side of Kokomo and the LES snow bands will continue to move around causing some additional spot accumulations.  It is possible one or more county schools may be on a two hour delay tomorrow morning.

Further east, what could be the baddest storm of the season is ready to take hold eastern Ohio through the New England stats down to Baltimore and Washington DC.  Everything from I-80 north could see true blizzard conditions for several days.  This storm is so large and powerful that some faint wrap around snow bands have been shown to extend back into our area. 

Long term, March 10th give or take a day or two has been rather active with a big system over our area.  We shall have to wait and see.

Another Historic Snowstorm....

I think they are getting tired of them out east.  Maybe we could get one before the season ends...

Snow...

This morning sure caught a lot of people of guard.  There were numerous accidents all over the county.

There looks to be a bit of lake effect snow over the next couple of days.  While accumulations look on the light side, slick road conditions could easily appear so be careful on the roads.

Nothing big looks to be in our future right now.  The early next week storm doesn't look like it will adjust the track enough to catch us.  Other areas east look to get pummeled with the system this week and then next week too.

Winter continues to earn an F around here.

All Quiet For Now...

I am not expecting any significant snow this week.  There are some possibilities for snow showers through Thursday but just spotty accumulations.  The bigger story would be the low temperatures in the teens and highs around 30. 

Next week could see another possible storm early in the week.  Overall temperatures look to remain below normal for the next couple of weeks. 

If you are sick of the cold, trust me when I say spring will come sometime.  I promise.  

Snow Fail & something from the NWS...

We know the snow failed (to materialize) here but I think Chicago/Northern Illinois got it work. The thought they had hit the jackpot with 12-14 inches which over a couple of days became less and less in the forecast. I now see reports of 2 to 3 inches and snow ratios of 5 to 1 which is about the same as dropping wet cement on your head. Ouch.

It is everyday the normally conservative National Weather Service mentions potential "Big Daddy" snowstorms a week out the the NWS office in Louisville has done just that...

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE A SRN SYS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR OUR REGION MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

Yes, there are several more storm systems that I am following and will let you know more details later today.

Watch For Slick Roads Monday Afternoon & Evening

Any leftover precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening would probably fall as snow.  Just a trace to half an inch is expected to fall.  That could cause some slick spots and the rain could also flash freeze on bridges and overpasses.  Just take your time and you should be fine.

I am still watching snow for later in the week but right now it isn't doesn't appear to be significant but rather a nuisance.  (We have had way to many nuisance snows this season.)

Rain For Sunday

It looks like rain will be the order of the day.  You might see an occasional flake fall too but no accumulations.  The snow pack has taken a good hit in recent days with warm weather and this rain will likely cause a painful death for the remaining snow pack. 

Storminess over the next two weeks could bring one or more chances for accumulating snow so snow lovers can keep the faith and those wanting spring will just have to wait.

No Big One But...

What a wild ride we have had with the storms coming over the next four days.  The first punch was fairly weak and remains so.  Don't look for much precipitation out of the wave tonight and tomorrow but light freezing rain is possible.  The threat for freezing rain continues right through into the second system which ramps up on Sunday.  Even though the system moved north/northwest, it still has plenty of precipitation for us.

The heaviest precipitation looks to fall in the overnight and early Monday morning.  While there will be virtually no accumulating snow there could be enough freezing rain on roads and sidewalks which could delay or even close schools.

Some back end snow Monday afternoon and evening could provide minor accumulation of an inch or less.

While it seems this storm will be a miss, there always is an off chance it could track across our area bringing some accumulating snow.  The line currently runs from Bloomington, IL to  Rensselaer to Ft. Wayne and northeast to Toledo, OH for 3-4 inches of snow.  About a 50 mile shift south of the snow would put us back at advisory criteria snow levels. 

I think we should continue to watch the evolution of this system but lose any sleep over it. On the other hand...

I won't go into any details but there is potentially a powerful storm for late next week which could drop significant snow bringing gusty winds and much lower temperatures.  Yeah, I have been burned before but we both know I will be following this system.  I guess I must be a glutton for punishment.  If you are reading this, you must be too.  Welcome to the club.  *smile*

[UPDATED 3:15 PM] High Res WRF

As you can see there is all but nothing coming for us with this storm...

The NWS in Indianapolis made massive changes to the grids.  The hourly forecast had been showing 10.3 inches for the Sunday-Monday storm.  Now the forecast is for less than an inch of snow with more than an inch of rain.  We're done!

Noon Update...

The two primary American forecast models have this thing way north and we are going to be looking rain on Sunday-Monday.  The foreign might be thinking differently.  The NWS seems to be waiting before making an updates or changes but WTHR said at noon that we dodged a bullet with this system.  So here are the American model snow maps...

 

 

Heartbreaker...

A meteorologist who has no vested interest in wishcasting or bittercasting the outcome of the storm said this storm will be a heart breaker for most of us.  Two things were pointed out which when upon careful review make a lot of sense.  The polar vortex which plunged down very strong on some more recent storm causing them to go south is going to plunge down with Arctic air behind the storm. 

 

We also typically use the 850mb (5000 ft.) temperature freeze line as the divider between rain and snow.  While surface temps can effect how well the snow sticks, the 850mb line is usually the correct way to make the determination.  However in this case, a large pool of warm air makes it all the way to 900mb hovering just below the 850mb line.  When glancing at the 850mb maps, you think all is well with just some surface temperature issues but that doesn't appear to be the case in this instance. 

I will keep my 2-4" first call out there for now on the Sunday-Monday system but I suspect we are going going to be dealing with a cold rain, a lot of melting snow, and flooding.  I really am sorry this isn't going to turn out well for us.  I had hoped we would get hammered by the snow but it is looking bleak.  I am also sorry I have been so excited with this system only to have it fade.  Dumb weather.  Of course the snow system could return but we are getting close enough that huge changes would seem unlikely.

A Fresh Friday Morning Look...

While last night's model runs looked like a complete failure, all is not lost.  First the TV meteorologists and National Weather Service didn't abandon ship.  The 06z GFS model run did come back our way but not as robust as before.  The Euro also seems to be a better solution for us and the GGEM is good and the JMA is rolling out and at 72 hours looks fine for us.  The HPC map which is a hand done probability map does think we are in good shape for four inches.

I am sure I will be spending my lunch reviewing data and will produce an update.  I still like my calls of 1 inch for Saturday with an outside chance of a little bit more and then 2 to 4 inches for Sunday into Monday.

Now for the pretty maps....

06z GFS snowfall

HPC 4" probability map

NWS Weather Story and Extended Graphic

GGEM (A solid hit with a small rain/snow mix.)

GFS FAIL

The warm air is making it all the way to Lake Michigan on the GFS too.  It doesn't get much worse than this...

NAM FAIL & FIRST CALL

Just unbelievable! The NAM brings the rain/snow line all the way up to Lake Michigan.  Our storm would be mainly rain with a little back end snow.  The rain and melting snow pack would likely cause wide area flooding.  The ground is frozen so there would be no place for the water to go.

Of course it doesn't make sense for it to go north given the strong blocking all across the north.

I guess the 18z DGEX is supporting the northern track.

Assuming the NAM run tonight is not correct and sticking with the earlier information, I think a good first call would be 2 to 4 inches for the Kokomo area.  Also don't forget the inch falling on Saturday.  I have seen several bullish calls already for the Sunday/Monday system but I still feel there are a lot of questions to answer before I go big with my call.  (There is plenty of time to get the answers we need.)

Good News...

Things are looking much better than the mess I saw last night.  The JMA shows a solid hit with no mixing issues.

 

The GGEM shows a nice hit but does have mixing issues.

The 18z GFS is good with no mixing and the 18z NAM shows plenty of precipitation but again the mixing line is awfully close.

The HPC 3 day composite appears that the snow track is heading our way with the ice (lower right image) should be just south of our area.

Later tonight I will make a first call for the snow total.

Back North...

Looks like we are back north with the system from most of the models but the Big Dog European model hasn't ran yet and could support a more southern solution.  It isn't always right but has a pretty decent track record which cannot be overlooked.

Using the NWS hourly graph which tweaked by hand from real meteorologists using models, synoptics, and skill shows us receiving 10.3 inches between noon on Sunday into Tuesday.  The are at 40 to 50% chances for snow which is pretty bullish for them 4 days out.

The 6z DGEX has a pretty narrow hit of snow.

The 12z GFS also is a good hit but not quite as good as yesterday.

 

Mixing issues are still on the table for now but at least we are still near or in the heaviest track of precipitation.  My fingers are cross for the late European model run...

Please Fasten Your Seatbelts

It looks like we have ran into some turbulence and the captain has asked you to remain in your seat and fasten your seatbelts.

The overnight runs for the system have waffled with the storm system causing it to go way south allowing only light accumulations for our area.  Confidence appears low by many professional meteorologists but  we will make a smooth transition back to a more northern solution with this storm.  It will be as easy as Sully landing in the Hudson.

Of course there are just a few parachutes available and if this storm system is another miss, then it will be every man for himself.  Stay tuned for updates.

While we wait, please join the Kokomo-Weather Facebook Group here - http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=45406924509

PS. Scott, please go wash the plow.  You will either need to push a lot of snow or clear the rubble from the crash of another forecast if we get missed by the big one again. 

Could This Be The Big One?

We have been waiting all winter for a big snow event to hit Kokomo but we have been missed by a few miles to a few hundred.  This one could be our big event.  Let me show you why but first lets get a few preliminary things out of the way first.

Today we topped out at 34.5 degrees and spent nearly four hours above the freezing.  A little bit of the snow pack melted.  It was most noticeable in the open areas where the wind had blown the snow away.  I noticed several brown grassy spots.

There will be two waves of snow.  The first snow will be Friday night into Saturday lingering into Sunday.  Accumulation will be 1 to 2 inches and normally, I would spend more time on this.  However there are much bigger fish to fry with this blog post.

There have been some clues that a big storm was in the works. Some of the TV meteorologists had been mentioning the system before today but this afternoon was different.  The normally conservative National Weather Service in Indianapolis lead their afternoon forecast discussion with the following headline...

BIG SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

They have a pretty high confidence level for the system to bring big snow but they are a little unsure of the heaviest snow path.  The forecast models will move around the track of the system and will likely increase and decrease the snow amounts too.

With that said, let's look at 12z model.  It shows a pretty good hit with no problems.

The 18z model also looks good but for the overall total but there could be some mixing with freezing rain.

 

 

The rain/snow line is rather close and could cause some issues.  You can see both the JMA and GFS while orient the line differently, they both show the potential problem.

You can see the 18z temperature graph shows how close with flirt with freezing.

 

Either way, the system is juicy.

I do look how this looks like a bowling ball type of hit across the Ohio Valley.  The last system similar to this was the Valentine's Day system on 2007.  We had more then 12 inches with that storm.

Some DGEX Eye Candy...

The Hype Has Begun...

Several of the TV meteorologists have began to talk about snow for the weekend and then early next week.  The NWS has added accumulating snow in their forecast for Saturday and Sunday.  No real confidence by them or the models or me so I think we just need to keep watching for some upcoming systems. 

Still undecided how much snow to record for today bit it did manage to whiten up the dirty snow.  I will wait for the snow reports from the NWS to make my decision.  Some slick conditions could exist in the morning so again there is the slight possibility of school delays. 

I think long term we will continue to see an active storm pattern.  I also don't see any warm up in our future.

We earned a T for the day...

I think I will be putting a trace in the books for today.  No accumulations around Howard County.  Overnight and into tomorrow expect some light wrap around snow with minimal accumulations.  I did notice some trucks out salting the highways on the way back from a basketball game.Overall wouldn't expect much to come of the flurries but some slick roads might cause a school delays but not very likely. 

Some hints for a weekend storm system but not very impressive and lots of model disagreement at the moment so I will hold off on any hype.  The NWS office has held off with adding any chance for precipitation in the forecast so the confidence level is low on this one. 

Things continue to look active over the next couple of weeks but we could end up with near misses just as easily as we could get hammered.  Winter continues to fail in Howard County.  :(

Lite Snow

Not much snow expected here but larger accumulations south.  If you are heading to Indianapolis, Louisville, or Cincinnati then expect slow travel.

The weekend snow maker looks juicy.  Could be another solid hit for our area.

No Changes

Looks like we are on track for light accumulating snow.  Some snow could be already on the ground for the morning so expect some slick roads and possible school delays.  If you are heading south past Indianapolis, look for poor travel conditions.

Already watching another storm system for next weekend.

Bring On The Snow...

The snow track did shift north and has put Howard County on the northern edge of the accumulating path.  The heaviest snow remains south of the Indianapolis where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.  For Kokomo, I don't anticipate advisory criteria levels of snow.  We will probably be one to two inches with an outside chance at three.  Snow will start around midnight and last into Monday night.  A word of caution that that while we look to get accumulating snow, don't be surprised if we still end up with no more than a trace.

Additionally, don't look for a warm up anytime soon.  Friday February 5th was the last time we were above freezing and this week doesn't look to break the freezing mark either.  bbbrrrr.....

Chances for Snow Increasing...

The 00z GFS and NAM runs both supported the 18z GFS run.  We are on the north edge and the gradient is rather tight with the snow accumulations running from a line from Terre Haute to Indianapolis to Muncie and south on the 00z NAM.  The GFS will be a bit north with the line cutting through Howard County.  Somewhat interesting considering we looked to be getting basically nothing just 12 hours ago.

Keep checking in for updates...

Is the 18z GFS on to something?

Is the GFS the start of the northwest trend? This shows 3 to 5 inches for Howard County for Sunday evening into Monday.  Maybe I should pay more attention to this clipper...

The Weekend/Next Week & More Snow!

Looks like another cold night of single digit lows.  Overall daytime highs look to be in the twenties for the next 5 to 7 days with overnight lows in the teens.  The snow pack will remain with us.

Additional accumulating snow is forecast Sunday evening through President's day.  It will just whiten things up and not bring much accumulation.  About an inch overall.  Some forecasters wishcasters are hoping the clipper tracks more north which could then produce 3-4 inches for us but I see no reason for that to happen.

I do see around the end of the month a rather significant storm over the Ohio Valley.  It is just too early to tell if it will be snow or rain/severe weather but it is something to watch.  Currently no other storm systems are showing up that will do more than provide a dusting of snow between now and then.

Storm Wrap Up

Well, the forecast didn't go as so many planned. The system failed in so many ways but also did pretty well in others. The fail was the total amount of 5.5 inches in Howard County. The dry slot cut down the totals from the 7 to 10 inches forecast. I am thankful my 5-9" call verified but my thinking was more around 7 inches.

The wind was also a fail as it didn't get as extreme as many anticipated. The Blizzard Watch for some counties to our northwest never morphed into a warning but for all of us the winds did to a pretty good job blowing around the snow and reducing visibilities.

The snow storm did help get us just above our seasonal snowfall with a recorded 26.5 inches and it was out largest snow of the season at 5.5 inches. It even came on the heals of a 4 inch snow giving us nearly 10 inches over 6 days.

I also got a couple of snow days for area schools. I suspect Thursday and maybe even Friday will have some delays too.

The dry slot on Tuesday was also a bit weird. Many across this area of the state reported snow was melting but the temperatures was in the middle to high 20s. We also experienced a rapid temperature drop (and rise) as the ULL (upper level low) passed overhead a couple hours on either side of midnight.

We close the books on this one and then look for the next system(s). Nothing significant in the near term so I will wait and do that forecast tomorrow.





One last treat for everyone, a YouTube video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpxiCxO5k0g (It's all fun.)

Lake Effect Snow

Nice fetch off the lake this morming producing snow in Howard County. Sweet.

Ugly Roads & Drivers

The roads and city streets are on poor shape. Even US 31 is not good but that doesn't seem to matter to some drivers who are going way to fast. Numerous reports on the scanner of slide offs and even a near roll over in Tipton county. Just be smart and slow down.

Good Morning Kokomo...

Two hour delays for the K-12 schools currently. Follow the closing on the WWKI website here. IUK has closed for the day but that may due to surrounding counties having snow emergencies and students not be able to get in to Kokomo.

Winds will slow down later today but things will remain cold. Out to clear my driveway and more later on the situation and the weekend storm...

Blowing & Drifting Snow

There will be blowing and drifting snow for the next 24 hours. Driving conditions will be poor at best overnight and could improve with daylight tomorrow. Today's snowfall amount was less than expected for most. The dry slot and sunshine allowed road crews to do a great job clearing roads before the winds picked up.

An additional inch of snow possible overnight. I wouldn't expect much more than that given the poor history of performance with this system.

I see a lot of schools on delay already for tomorrow but none in Howard County have made a public decision. I would suspect a delay and then the decision on the day a bit later after the road crews have had a chance to be on the roads for a few hours.

The weekend snow event is being given any credence by the NWS offices at this time so I am not going to get my hopes up for additional accumulating snow. Next week however...

Heavy Snow Band

There is a heavy band of snow moving across the area. Could see quick half inch with to an once by 3 PM then drier air and colder temperatures follow. It isn't above freezing but surface melting on plowed roads have things in rather good shape. Forecasters till calling for an additional couple of inches overnight and of course the blowing and drifting. Look for the low end of my 5 to 9 inch forecast to verify. I would be shocked if we made it to 7 inches.

I wonder if the GFS forecast model is on crack. The weekend clipper which looked like a dusting before now looks like 5 to 7 inches on Saturday. Another system shows up for next week with accumulating snow too. I hear there might be some other model support.

We need to be thinking about single digit lows coming soon too.

Dry Slot - Ugh!

The dry slow has made its way here and will give us several hours of light to no snow. Additional snow will fill back in this afternoon but totals likely will be down with the system I think the 5-7" totals would appear better now. I think the chance at the high end is lost at this point. I have just under 4 inches now.

Today...

Look for about 4 inches on the ground for the drive home. Winds will increase with late afternoon into the evening gusting over 30 MPH and that will continue through tomorrow. More heavy snow to accompany the wind overnight...

Dry Air: In last evenings post, I mentioned the lower precipitation in the southwest area of area of the state and it has come to fruition. The Winter Storm Warning was downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for Terre Haute to Vincennes to Jasper. I just hope that stays south.

It's Snowing & Schools Are Closed!

Snow is falling and will continue into tomorrow morning. Roads are becoming slick and hazardous. Slow down out there...

Right On Track...

You can see how large this system is with the watches and warnings across much of the US.


Just one worry for me with the forecast. You can see on the map below the lower precipitation/snow total cuts diagonally across the state. If there were to work its way up here, lower totals of snow would result. I still think the low end of 5 inches would verify however.


Some nice snow graphics from the NWS area offices.


An important thing to remember is this will be a long duration event lasting into Wednesday morning with significant blowing late Tuesday into Wednesday. Be prepared for waves of snow and occasional breaks in the action.

Colder air will follow and more snow possible this weekend. More on that tomorrow.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook to share your winter weather talk and photos.

And just a graphic you don't see very often. All of Indiana under a heavy snow hatch. Sweet!


Don't forget you can listen to the public safety agencies in Howard County/Kokomo at Scan Kokomo - http://www.ScanKokomo.com

Oh, no need to talk about the chances for a snow day on Tuesday. It's a lock!

Not much to forecast now...

I think the forecast is looking good and now we just wait for it to arrive in the next few hours. Snow is being reported over much of IL currently. This is the calm before the storm. Look for an update around 10 PM with some additional detail.

Winter Storm Warning Issued

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

Noon Update

The NWS in Indianapolis is taking their time on a tricky forecast hoping to get it right. They have alluded to an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the entire coverage area sometime this afternoon.

This will be a long duration event with snow from midnight tonight tapering off midday Wednesday. At that time gusty winds should continue into Thursday morning causing significant blowing and drifting.

Snow amounts from 5 to 9 inches around the area. We could have more should a deformation band set up over our area. If I had to pick a single number for the snow amount, I would go with 7 inches.

High Resolution Map Supports My Call

The 6-7" shown falls right into my call of 5-9".

Winter Storm Watch Continues

Remarkably the Winter Storm Watch continues with no updates to the headlines. Looks like the warning (or advisory) issuance won't be up long before the event which should start in earnest after midnight. I have to think it will be up by noon.

The zone forecast is for 5 to 7 inches while the hourly forecast is just over 9 inches. I like my call of 5-9 inches total. Significant blowing and drifting will impact travel.

No other chances to the forecast required at this time.

Late Update On The Storm

First, I want to shamelessly promote the new Facebook page where you can interact with other great Kokomo-Weather fans. I look forward to seeing you there.

A tricky forecast. First, I am surprised no upgrade to the Winter Storm Watch was issued this afternoon. No question it will happen by morning.

Some timing issues could be happening with the forecast. It appears that snow is falling much soon than forecast down in Arkansas. Snow could be falling as early as tomorrow late afternoon.

Otherwise the 5 to 9 inches is a good forecast for Kokomo and Howard County followed by strong winds causing blowing and drifting snow. Looks like an busy week for plow drivers.

Follow Kokomo-Weather on twitter too for quick updates too.

1999 Redux

The comparable analogs for this upcoming storm keep showing January 1/2, 1999. It was a great storm for the midwest. I wonder if we can get it done again.

The storm - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1999

The snow it left behind...