While last night's model runs looked like a complete failure, all is not lost. First the TV meteorologists and National Weather Service didn't abandon ship. The 06z GFS model run did come back our way but not as robust as before. The Euro also seems to be a better solution for us and the GGEM is good and the JMA is rolling out and at 72 hours looks fine for us. The HPC map which is a hand done probability map does think we are in good shape for four inches.
I am sure I will be spending my lunch reviewing data and will produce an update. I still like my calls of 1 inch for Saturday with an outside chance of a little bit more and then 2 to 4 inches for Sunday into Monday.
Now for the pretty maps....
06z GFS snowfall
HPC 4" probability map
NWS Weather Story and Extended Graphic
GGEM (A solid hit with a small rain/snow mix.)
5 comments:
Hi Jim,
ICE...thats what WLFI calling for plus 4-6 in....do you see that???
This mornings special weather statement from NWS calls for the possibility of 5-8 inches, acts like it will be mostly snow for north central, I know your playing it careful, which is probably the way to go, but they seem a little hyped this morning....
Laura, I do see the ice call but I think we will be warm enough that any accumulations won't be a real problem with than some slickness. The downed trees & power lines fear won't be realized.
I think this afternoon that the forecasts will start to back down with the headlines and acknowledge that we won't be getting hammered. I think everyone wants to see the 12z runs to make sure.
Is there such a thing as keeping the bullish predictions to keep TV ratings? Just curious.
Anonymous,
I don't think there is any attempt to keep the ratings by being bullish or hyping the storm. For them and and the NWS the goal would be to balance giving the public a heads up to the possibilities while remaining consistent with the forecast and not flip flopping with models runs every 6 hours.
I don't envy them and I know the general public perception is they are clueless and get paid for being wrong.
The good news is I am free to hype and flip flop all I want. :)
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