SPC Risk Area Sliding South

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) moved the 30% risk which covered our area yesterday to OH and PA and left us with a 15% risk for severe weather. Now that has slid south with our area remaining along the northern edge of the 15% are. The areas north of here are now covered with a 5%. That is the lowest risk given.

What do these percentages mean? The SPC defines risk as the likelihood of severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) from any given point to a radius of 25 miles. If we interpret that today, the SPC thinks severe weather in Kokomo or within 25 miles of any direction is just 15%. (That can change with the next forecast around 1 PM.) As we know, thunderstorms are isolated and can be severe in Greentown or Tipton but not Kokomo. So now we just watch and wait...

Sadly the chance for storms (severe and non severe) remain at 60% so expect some rain to fall this afternoon and evening. Fireworks shows going off "at dusk" might also be a few minutes early if we have a good cloud deck blocking the sun.

Happy July 4th!