Friday, June 27, 2008

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

We are now under a severe thunderstorm watch until 11 PM.

Friday Severe Weather

It appears the severe weather threat will happen for our area after the evening sets in. An upper air disturbance has the possibility to set off initiation of severe storms after 8 PM. Currently a very small non severe cell looks to have a beeline on baseball diamond for tonight rescheduled Little League Championship game.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Round 2 Arriving

It looks like round 2 of the storms will arrive around 3 PM. It appears to be more of a rain maker than anything else. Conditions to play baseball will be poor tonight.

Lunchtime Thunderstorm

A slow moving thunderstorm will move across Howard County during the lunch hour. It is a slow moving storm which could drop up to a 1/4 inch of rain.

Slight Risk For Severe Weather

The next few days will show a pattern of stormy weather possible. The SPC has a slight risk for our area through Saturday. Friday evening looks to be the best and I would not be suprised if we are not under a moderate risk for Friday.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Quiet Weather

It looks like the evening is going to be quiet.
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Slight Tornado Risk For Today

The SPC has identified a 2% tornado risk for central an northern Indiana for today. The slight risk continues for all of Indiana. No current watches or warnings are in effect.

Slight Risk For Severe Weather Through Saturday

It looks to be an active time for severe weather across our area. While no widespread major event is forecast, there will be several opportunities for lower strength severe weather, mainly wind and hail to happen each day. This will not be a period where one can specifically target a few hours in an afternoon or evening. It could be much like the previous weekend where severe weather split right around us.

The best thing to prepare is to keep your weather radio handy or keep tuned to local media sources.

Rain will also accompany the severe weather chances.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Watch Possible

It looks possible we could have a watch coming out soon. The recent MCD indicates a watch possible. I suspect we might just be right on the north line so I cannot say if we will be in or out but I would guess out.

Severe Thunderstorms

Some severe thunderstorms have been passing through Indiana. It looks like a close call with will be to our north in Cass County.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Thunderstorm Watch

The first rounds missed Kokomo today and looking at the current radar, it seems we are not in an immediate threat. Just pay attention if out and about over the next few hours.

Stormy Saturday (& Sunday too)

It looks like a stormy Saturday. I have not had much of a chance to look at weather since my post yesterday. I worked 19 hours on Friday and am heading out for some Little League Baseball for a few hours. I might go straight to spotting if things materialize as they are not forecasting. Sunday looks like another stormy day.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Slight Risk For Saturday


Today is the start of pattern where the forecast includes chances for thunderstorms. Friday through Monday has 20 to 40% chances each day and overnight. Saturday includes a Slight Risk by the SPC but it looks pretty weak and spread out.

I wouldn't cancel any outdoor plans for this time period but one should keep an eye on the weather so see of anything more develops from this.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Storm Cloud Photos

I just want to mention you can see some great shots of last nights storms at Mike's blog site. Mike is a great wedding photographer and does a nice job with weather photos too. It is worth the look.

Back Online and Thanks...

We had the power restored around 3 AM. Thanks to the Duke Energy workers which were out all night restoring power. Here is a good web page to bookmark for later reference. - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp - It shows the outages for Duke Energy and can even generate a map.

Also a tip of the hat to Kokomo Street Department and Howard County Highway crews which were out taking care of numerous downed trees and limbs overnight. Last, thanks to the Police, Fire and EMA officers for dealing with the extra calls generated by the storms. Thank you again to everyone.

FYI: If you are listening to the amateur radio repeater which is used for spotters, it is still announcing a severe thunderstorm watch as of this morning. The application which puts that on the air is not functioning correctly. There is no watch in effect. I suspect the problem will be taken care of later today.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Power Update

Duke Energy says it will be 4 AM before we see power restored so I am officially calling off for the evening and will get things back online tomorrow morning. Duke is reporting there are still 500+ customers without power in Kokomo.

Scotty, we need more power...

Kokomo-Weather has no power at the weather station location. Back hopefully soon...

Severe Weather Coming

It looks like a line of storms will arrive around 7 PM. Winds and hail have been reported with these storms along with numerous warnings. I will likely be out for spotting in a but so this will be the last update before things get rocky. STAY SAFE!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM

It looks like a nice line of storms will cross over our area in a few hours. Look for strong winds and possible associated with this front.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN IOWA
MUCH OF ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN OHIO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled

That was a bust. ;)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3PM

I guess the day is going to be full of surprises. We are included in the latest watch.


Severe Weather Surprise...


Good morning! This morning is somewhat of surprise. A slight risk had been issued for our area several days ago but the thinking was the risk was becoming less as we got closer to today. I was not overly excited/concerned about today when I went to bed last night. Now I wake up to a Moderate Risk and they issued a Mesoscale Discussion for a probable watch for our area to the north. (We might make the southern edge of the watch are but unlikely.) I guess we all need to pay a little more attention to the weather today.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect

There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 9 AM. A few warnings have been issued but no damage reports. There is a line from south of Terra Haute to South Bend and it is moving east very slow 25-30 MPH. It has left a lot of rain in a few places.

We might catch a small break in the line and not get totally drenched or any severe weather. (Let's hope so.)

Stormy Friday Ahead

Friday morning starts with some thunderstorms across the area. A severe thunderstorm watch is west of us already. The parameters still don't look any better for a widespread significant outbreak of severe weather this morning than they did last evening. It will be a day of watching how things clear out and how much sun/heating takes place.

Sunday also now includes a slight risk for severe weather.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Friday's Severe Weather Threat

The flooding across the Midwest is at record levels and nobody needs more rain but that is what we all keep getting. Luckily Howard County has not seen anything like our neighbors to our south in Indiana and to our west through Iowa. We could see more rain here tomorrow and then again on Sunday.

The severe weather threat looks pretty weak for tomorrow according to the recent model runs. Hopefully the models will be correct and we can have a quiet evening for a change. It looks like we will need to watch tomorrow to see what actually happens.

Rain Gauge Fixed

I got time to get up on the roof and correct the rain gauge tonight. One of those darn maple tree seeds or helicopters as we called them as a kid had managed to lodge itself in the rain device. (I guess that should be no surprised since my gutters are full of them.)

I will manually correct June numbers when the month ends and the data is not automatically corrected by the weather software. Sorry again for the problem.

Friday Storms In Track For Indiana

The Friday forecast looks about the same in a general perspective. Wind will likely be the biggest threat but as usual there are chances for hail or tornado.

I do want to mention a sad incident which happened yesterday in Iowa. A boy scout camp took a direct hit from a tornado and four scouts were killed and many others were injured. You can ready the NWS assessment here. Take a moment and say pray for those affected families and scouts.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Another Friday Night Repeat

I guess we need to give it a name like Friday Night Thunder or Friday Redux or something clever. The weather again looks ominous for Friday with another chance for severe weather and heavy rain possible. The severe weather indicators show cape values around 2500 J/Kg, EHI at 3.6, and a LI of -4.8. The supercell potential from the 8 PM sounding is 87.4% which is about the highest I have seen recently. More to follow as we draw closer to the event.


Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Rain Gauge Update

It seems the rain gauge is not collecting and measuring rain properly. The anomaly started about 6/8 or 6/9. Once we have a dry day where I can get on the roof to service the unit, I will correct the problem.

I will manually add back the rain totals once corrected. Sorry for the problem.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW
BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN
CARROLL CASS CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DECATUR
DELAWARE DE KALB FAYETTE
FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN FULTON
GRANT GREENE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON
JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON
KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAWRENCE
MADISON MARION MARTIN
MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NOBLE OWEN
PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH
RUSH SHELBY STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
UNION VERMILLION VIGO
WABASH WARREN WAYNE
WELLS WHITLEY

Early Stages of Storms

The storms are slowly building in back in southern Illinois. They looks to be slow moving which means they will drop a lot of rain in their wake. Nobody needs that.

Storms & Flooding Possible

Thunderstorms are possible in the area late this afternoon into the evening. A chance for heavy rain will continue into the overnight possibly resulting in flash flooding. A flash flood watch is already in place an be prepared for flash flood warnings later today. Streams and rivers are already swollen to their banks in our area.

The SPC has our area under a slight risk for severe weather later today. Wind and hail are the most likely with possible isolated tornadoes.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. *

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE ALREADY VERY SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

Suprising Damage From Friday

I must admit I was surprised by the amount of damage from Friday evening's passing of the gust front. I saw numerous large trees down and countless limbs down. Of course that damage was no comparison to the recent tornado and straight line wind damage others have suffered in addition to the flooding. An amazing amount of rain fell over parts of Indiana south and west of Indianapolis.

Today will be windy and hot with a high of 90. Hopefully the grass will be dry and can be mowed.

Monday brings us back to another opportunity for severe weather. The SPC has us in a slight risk and the warm and moist conditions would be right for some activity. A detailed forecast later this evening.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Gust Front Passing at 7 PM

video

It's Over...

I think the short lived gust front/wind event is over. The storms which produced tornado reports in Illinois didn't produce any in Indiana. I think it is over for the night so sleep tight.

Tornado Watch Likely

I have been following the weather from my cell phone on the way back from Fort Wayne and have arrived back in Howard County. (The only place I stopped to use Wi-Fi was down.)

The tornado watched issued several hours ago to our north and include Miami and Cass counties will likely be extended south to I-70 ad west from Indianapolis. Storms are forming across the area and a significant line of severe weather is back in Illinois and two to three hours away. This storm has had tornadoes associated with it.

Be safe tonight.

Good News

It looks like the severe thread for today is less than expected for everyone. Then moderate risk area I expected to shift back west was instead removed. The slight risk probabilities were lowered as a whole meaning the SPC believes the system will not be as powerful first forecast. That is good news for those already cleaning up after recent storms.

The only bad news is the rain and thunderstorms will continue overnight and into Saturday. It won't be a great weekend for outdoor activities.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

My Friday Forecast

I am thinking the moderate risk area for tomorrow will shift back west placing us back into a slight risk. Storms will be late in the afternoon and evening. A typical squall line set up looks to be setting up for our area. Wind should be the biggest widespread threat.

On the other hand...

Today was supposed to be a big day. Maybe even historic. However it never fully materialized. The energy was there and likely still is hanging around. The soaring temperatures and ample moisture could help fuel an already unstable atmosphere.

Honestly is would not surprise me or many other weather enthusiasts that a truly historic day will just sneak up on everyone. Tomorrow could be that day...

Moderate Risk For Friday

We have been upgraded to a moderate risk for severe weather for Friday. The high risk remains to our west for today.

Large High Risk Area

Today is an off day for severe weather in Indiana. There is one of the largest high risk areas seen in a very long time to our west. There are expecting a significant wind event plus some tornadoes and hail. This system will impact Indiana on Friday into Saturday morning.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Storms Moving East/Northeast

Unlike the recent storms from yesterday ad today which moved in a southeast direction across Indiana, these storms have taken a east/northeast direction. That has kept us pretty much out of the recent barrage of tornado and thunderstorm warnings which have been north of Howard County.

I see a small swath of rain with a little lightning going over the western half of the county. Nothing is building behind it which looks severe or would effect us and I anticipate the existing tornado watch will extend toward into northwestern Ohio and lower Michigan. Our are area will likely be dropped from the watch by 11 PM.

Edit to add: Go figure. I type this and 10 minutes later they amend the watch but keep us in. We are now in the very most bottom of the watch area. I think my 11 PM prediction will still hold up.

Tornado Watch

It didn't take long for the tornado watch to be issued for the first tornado warning to be issued. The tornado watch will last until 2 AM.

Watch Possible

It looks like some severe weather could be possible this evening Some storms are spinning up along the Illinois and Indiana line.

Severe Storms Staying South

It looks like we might dodge the bullet for the second day in a row. The severe weather and accompanying Severe Thunderstorm Watch is south/south east of our area. It looks like we see any development of storms for several hours if at all.

Thursday looks like a warm and should be a severe weather free day for Indiana but the central plains through Wisconsin will see some severe weather.

Friday beings back more chances for severe weather.

AMAZING VIDEO

Here is an amazing video from the Parkersburg Tornado a couple of weeks ago. This video is from an ATM across the street from a house when takes a hit from the EF-5 which was responsible for 7 or 8 deaths.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/19496234.html?video=YHI&t=a

Calm For A While

The Tornado watch continues for southern Indiana and the SPC has us in a slight risk today. Almost all of the severe weather including five reported tornadoes in Indiana went south of I-70. It appear there will be significant clearing today which could cause an already unstable environment to build causing more storm system later in the afternoon and through the evening and overnight. The dew point and humidity is already high. With temperatures likely over 80 to near 90 in souther Indiana, look out!

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Storms By Midnight

Severe weather should move into the area by midnight in Kokomo. Some severe warning are already in western counties of Indiana.

It appears heavy rain will also be likely with these storms.

Tornado Watch & Severe Weather

It has turned out quite active this evening. It is pretty much according to my initial timeline.

The tornado watch lasts until 3 AM for our area. We are on the northern most edge of the watch box.

Much of the activity is south of our area. It does look like a few of the cells in Illinois could make their ay this way. They would be over one hour away.

I am online now and am monitoring radar, telelvision, and amateur radio.

BULLET DODGED

I think we have lucked out and might not see anything very severe tonight. There are some chances for thunderstorms in the overnight into Wednesday morning but the major widespread outbreak was shut down by the junk systems that hung around most of the day.

The Moderate Risk has shifted a bit south as well with the latest outlook from the SPC. We remain under a slight risk.

Clear and Sunny

The clearing should allow the sun to bake down and destabilize the atmosphere. Look for storms to reform after 6 or 7 PM and move across the area.

Dangerous Bow Echo...

A large dangerous Bow Echo has formed in Illinois and is moving East/Southeast and will impact Indiana. A tornado watch is south of Howard County currently. So far we are dodging a major bullet with the cloud cover over a large area keeping heating/instability down.

It is going to be a long, long day...

Severe weather already is to our west. In Illinois there have been tornadoes reported including some damage to a home and barn. It will getting busy in our parts by the afternoon.

Indiana Moderate Risk Severe Weather

Indiana is the bullseye for today in regards to severe weather. There is already a watch box to our west and some non severe storms have already made it through. As mentioned, when all the lines on the map overlap, bad things happen. Today could be that day...

Expect numerous updates and remain aware of the weather conditions. I doubt we will have to wait long for some severe weather to start happening.



Monday, June 2, 2008

Tuesday's Storms & Last Friday's Tornado

It looks like a messy day for Tuesday. Storms should move in overnight and the disorganized mess could keep things from taking off tomorrow. It will be a wait and see how much sunshine/heating can occur to destabilize the atmosphere for later in the afternoon into the evening. My current guess is we will be on the northern 1/3 of the storm system as it crosses Indiana. The next Outlook from the SPC will be the Day 1 for tomorrow. I suspect they will wait for at least the 8 am update before pushing something to a moderate risk. We shall see...

You can a video of the Carroll County tornado here. It is an excellent example of how difficult it is to spot tornadoes at night.

Excellent Severe Weather Parameters For Tuesday Evening.




Tuesday Thunderstorms

It looks to be a wicked weather day on Tuesday. Unless something changes, it is anticipated that the next Day 2 Outlook will be a moderate risk over Illinois and Indiana.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Tuesday's Tornado Index

This is 8 PM Tuesday evening. That is eye popping scary!

Storms Today

Not much fanfare about any severe weather chances today but storms are starting to fire across the area back to eastern Illinois. Several severe thunderstorm warnings are currently in play.

TORNADOES CONFIRMED - STORMY WEEK AHEAD

The National Weather Service confirmed the small EF-0 tornado in Carroll County on Friday evening. An EF-1 and EF-0 along with straight line winds caused damage in Wabash, Huntington, and Grant Counties. All of these storms passed over Howard County with little fanfare. (Personally I had an amateur radio wire antenna come down.)

As you can imagine from a cursory glance at the Storm Prediction Centers Convective Outlooks for the upcoming week, it will be stormy again including several days in Indiana. More details on the systems will be available later today.