Monday, May 30, 2011

Death Ridge = Hot & Dry

A ridge will set up over the over our area bring hot temperatures and dry weather.  The unstable weather has pushed north into the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Canada.  However when the ridge breaks down, expect severe weather to return.  That doesn't look to happen anytime for the next 7 days so enjoy it.

While we didn't see any truly severe weather on Wednesday, we did a several rounds of weather including a very photogenic cell.  Craig Trott captured this amazing photo over Kokomo.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

PDS Tornado Watch Until 2 AM

 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
          LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
 
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
 
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
 
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON
   INDIANA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MUNCIE INDIANA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
 
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 368. WATCH NUMBER 368 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
   635 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 370...WW 371...WW 372...WW 373...WW
   374...
 
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
   THE WATCH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
   COUPLED WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. E/W BOUNDARY
   ACROSS CENTRAL IND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE.
   TORNADOS POSSIBLY STRONG TO VIOLENT WILL BE A THREAT WELL INTO THE
   EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

[UPDATED WED 10:15 AM] Wednesday: Possible Tornado Outbreak In Indiana

Update 10:15 AM:  Tornado Watch until 7 PM this evening.

 
 Update 9 AM: As forecast below, we were upgraded locally to a moderate risk and  a high risk was issued south.  (I almost drew a map last evening for the moderate and high risk areas.  If I did, it would have been almost dead on with the SPC map this morning.)




 The SERF continues to paint a scary picture for tornadic activity today.


Already some convection with warnings to our west but this wave is not the real show.  It starts this afternoon.  The NWS in Indianapolis has issued a Special Weather Statement which would be good for you to review.


Previous:

Portions of Indiana is likely to see a significant severe weather event on Wednesday including tornadoes.  Some tornadoes could be long tracked and violent.

The SERF model from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed a bullseye over our region including Kokomo.  Unlike in winter when we love to be the center of the bullseye, this is one time when you want to be missed.  These maps are 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.

The SERF model has had a good history of outlining the area of tornadoes in the past couple of months.  the higher number of 40 or 50 which are depicted here are strong indicators of a large scale event.  It happened in in the south at the end of April, it happened on Sunday for Joplin, and it happened tonight for Oklahoma. 

While I am hopeful we won't see anything of that magnitude, I cannot rule that out.  It is extremely important that you follow local media tomorrow along with checking in here and on my social media stream on Twitter and Facebook.

(Please note that during active times, I am usually out Skywarn spotting and reporting back via Amateur radio to the National Weather Service.  I usually cannot answer questions but will try to tweet information as often as I can.)

Twitter followers should also consider watching the #INwx hashtag for info from many weather enthusiasts, individuals, and trained meteorologists. 



These maps show that tomorrow during the dinner hour, Cape values exceed 1500+, EHI is 4+, Helicity is 300+, and strong winds turning at carious levels of the atmosphere.  All signs of severe weather and tornadic activity.





I cannot stress enough that you need to be alert of ever changing conditions.  You need to be responsible for your own safety and have a plan in place for home, work, and anywhere else you happen to be.  There is an excellent chance things will be rocking before you get home from work.  I would suggest one or more of the free alerting services for your cell phone or email:

CellWarn
WeatherUSA
The Weather Channel
Emergency Email & Wireless Network
WISH-TV Channel 8

While not free, I personally use StormNow and at a cost of $2 per month, it is the best money spent.  I almost always receive a warning email before the weather radio goes off.

Besides severe weather, heavy rain is possible through Thursday.  Area where cells set up could bring several inches of rain rather quickly and cause flash flooding. 




My thoughts for tomorrow believe that we will be on the top edge of a moderate risk and a high risk will be issued to our south.  Keep alert and there should be plenty to talk about tomorrow...

Possible Tornado Outbreak for Wednesday in Indiana

The headline should serve as your heads up.  Wednesday afternoon and evening seem favorable for a an outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes.  This severe weather season has been rather active and violent and it shows no signs of letting up.

There already is a moderate risk out and we are very near the currently outlined area.  I do think a shift north and east is warranted and will likely come on the new Day 1 Outlook maps.  I put my own line on the map.



The SERF shows favorable tornado ingredients as well for tomorrow.  These high numbers (30+) have been associated with recent violent outbreaks so this model currently has a good track record for forecasting.  These maps are for 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.



I cannot stress enough how you need a plan to protect yourself and your family.  Warning times have been good with 15 to 20 minute lead times but that is not enough time if you do not get the warning or fail to have a plan.  You need to allow extra time trying to exit ball parks.  This year has seen 481 tornado related deaths.  Mother Nature means business!

Monday, May 23, 2011

Wednesday's Severe Weather

The SERF paints a rather scary picture for severe weather and specifically, tornadoes. More to come as things develop.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH***

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:00 PM FOR KOKOMO ***

Quick updates from me on Twitter - http://twitter.com/#!/KokomoWeather

 and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/KokomoWeather

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather

The weather complex which produced devastation is Joplin, Mo is set to be active over our area today.  Please be prepared.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Severe Weather Watching Coming Soon...

The question is will it be a severe or tornado watch...

Wednesday, May 11, 2011