Monday, December 31, 2007

Snow Accumulations Minimal Expected Now

The Snow Advisory remains but it likely is just an oversight of the NWS in Indianapolis. The counties north of our area have downgraded their Winter Storm Warnings as the moisture has dried up. The low is now located over Defiance, Ohio and remained pretty steady at 1007 mb as it passed over Indiana.

We are beginning to see temperatures finally get to freezing and they will continue to drop overnight as the winds increase. You can see the temperature contour map shows how the snow skirted right over us. Had we received snow instead if rain we would have been about 3 1/2" by now. You can still look for a trace to one inch by morning.

Happy New Year Everyone!


Snow Advisory Remains - Totals Scaled Back

The Snow Advisory remains for us but most of the advisory area got dropped. Only Lafayette to Frankfort to Kokomo remains. (Winter Warnings remain to the north.) The temperatures are not dropping as rapidly as hoped and the storm is going strong but to the north. Some great snowfall rates and accumulations will happen but just not here. The NWS now has us at 1-2" for out storm totals and dropped the chance for snow from 100% to just 60%.

Can you sense my sadness? No big snow was expected and this storm blows up out of virtually nowhere over the past 24 hours and then *POOF* nothing for us. I say phooey!

Warm Temperatures Means Rain

The warm temperatures remain and I am getting an uneasy feeling that we will see more rain than snow. I even would give a small chance now for no snow. That would be sad.

Winter Storm Warning Issued North...

Cass County & Miami County and counties north are now under a Winter Storm Warning.

Snow on Tap...

An updated map from the NWS and radar image. One problem we might have is the temperatures were a little higher than first thought for today. We might see some rain early on before the change to snow.

Snow Maps from the National Weather Servcie

Snow looks to be on track to being 2-4" for us overnight. Some local amounts could be 5-6". Higher amounts for the north.



SNOW ADVISORY

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON
NEW YEARS EVE...

.SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO THE FORM
OF ALL SNOW BY 9 PM THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Suprise Snow For New Years Eve

Yes, there has been some talk about snow over New Years Eve but the amounts were generally small (1-2") in nature. Today saw a better chance for more snow and the latest model runs and NWS forecasts now confirm that chance.

Expect 1" tomorrow during the day and another 2-4" overnight (on Monday into Tuesday). Areas north of us could see even more with 6-8" very possible. Blowing winds will add poor visibility and difficult driving conditions to the situation through Wednesday morning.

Snow Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the northern half of the state.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Flurries This Afternoon Possible

A chance for flurries this afternoon with rain showers to the south. We are borderline with temperatures for this event. A better chance for snow Monday into News Years day with 1-2". Near single digit temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday nights before a warm up.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Generic Winter Weather Ahead

The weekend will be like many of the winter days experienced in Indiana. Cold, dreary. No precipitation with temps 35-40 during the day and mid 20's overnight. There is a pattern looking to bring snow for New Years Eve. No significant accumulations are expected at this time. One to two inches are likely with a rain/sleet mix.

Cold Rain For Kokomo

A cold rain is in the area and will end by evening. There is a snow/rain mix north and all snow up at South Bend. The 32 degree freeze line runs from Monticello to Ft. Wayne.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Light Snow After Midnight

A light snow will occur after midnight bringing a dusting of one inch or less across the area. No significant accumulation or hazardous conditions will exist.

(Note: I am heading to Detroit for today and will not be doing any updates until tomorrow. Go Boilers!)

Monday, December 24, 2007

No White Christmas

There will be no white Christmas for us. The recent snows are all but a memory with man made piles around parking lots. The weather looks uneventful for the next few days. A rain/snow mix is brewing for the weekend so stay tuned.

Have a safe and wonderful Christmas holiday.

Santa Clause Is Delivering Presents

Santa has started his deliveries and will be making his way around the world. Follow his moves as he is tracked by NORAD.

http://www.noradsanta.org

Enjoy and have a safe and wonderful Christmas.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY

..WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER THE NOON HOUR. ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Warm, Rain, Wind, Flurries

Warm temperatures will be on tap for today with highs near the mid 50's. Rain moves in overnight with rapidly falling temperatures are the cold front moves across the state. Snow flurries are possible on Sunday with little to no accumulations.

The big story will be wind as it increases over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will be 15-20 with gusts over 30. Sunday winds will be 25-30 with gusts over 40.

Christmas Eve and Christmas will be quiet on the weather side. Wednesday/Thursday look to be the next chance for precipitation.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Rain and a Little Snow for the Weekend

The forecast has not changed much for the weekend. Saturday will see rain into the night with a change over to snow. Neither will be significant in accumulation but the Saturday rain plus warm temperatures in the 50's over most of Indiana will accelerate the current snow packs melting. Some flooding could occur.

The late Saturday night change over to snow will not bring much accumulation since the cold front will be moving in rather quickly to the east and push the precipitation ahead of it. Trace amounts to 1-2" would be the best scenario for snow. Roadways should be warm with rain so snow not expected to be sticking. Slick spots on bridges and overpasses are likely.

Sunday will see much colder temperatures with the passing front to our east and gusty winds 20-30 MPH.

The next significant storm will likely be right after Christmas where several inches of snow could fall across the area.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Saturday Warm Up

Saturday will be a nice warm up with temperatures in the 50's over most of our area and 60's in the south. Too bad it will be raining and soggy outside.

Weekend Forecast: Rain Changing To Snow



Rain will be in the forecast for Saturday with accumulations of 1/4-1/2" likely before a change over to snow during the rapidly falling temperatures over Indiana. Sunday will being snow from trace amounts in the south to 2" to the north. Some lake effect snow could enhance a few totals in the usual areas. Snow should end across if state by early Sunday afternoon.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Weekend Rain and Snow Likely

It seems most of Indiana will see rain on Saturday and then possible snow on Sunday. The new update from the NWS below now included heavy rain under the Cone of Uncertainty...

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Some Eye Candy...

No, it isn't a Victoria's Secret model. *grin*

Weekend Uncertain

The weekend is uncertain at this point. Precipitation is very likely but the type is still to be determined. It currently looks like rain will fall Saturday into Sunday where temperatures will drop allowing for a change over into snow for Christmas Eve. The forecast models still are not handling the current snow pack and cold temps well and it is unlikely until tonight when the 00z readings are taken and the model runs using that data will a more accurate idea start to develop.



An early map showing 1-2" for our area.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Forecast Teaser

From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana...

The next 7 days will feature 3 separate weather systems that will impact our area...with the third system having the potential to be another major winter storm in the Midwest. System 1 will skirt by to our north and is only expected to bring flurries to our area. System 2 will move by to our south and could bring a chance of rain...snow and even a little freezing rain depending on its exact track. Weather system 3 is being watched carefully as it has the potential to be another powerful winter storm across the Midwest. Timing and track of this system remain uncertain but there is good agreement that this system will develop and move through the Midwest during the upcoming weekend. Stay tuned to local forecasts as details become clearer over the next several days.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Final Comments on the Storm...

Let's close out the books on the weekend snow storm. However before we go let's look back on the how this one played out.

Tuesday was the first mention of a winter storm for the weekend. It came along with the mention of snow for Thursday. The Thursday 1-2" forecast busted when the temperatures were too warm and rain fell instead of snow. The Tuesday forecast for the weekend was 2-4".

The real kicker was the weekend snow storm was supposed to be an east coast monster. It was to pass lower in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. The east coast weather weenies were beating their collective chest talking about snow. Nothing made Howard County stand out during the storm. My 2-4" forecast was based upon a slightly more northern track I thought storm would end up taking.

Thursday brought the weather forecast computer models to 48 hours of the storm and it was clear there was a northwest track to the storm. The snow totals were going up for our area and the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Office began hinting at 4-6". They even provided a weather story map with that forecast.

The Indianapolis office played this one more conservative and didn't up the snow totals. As the 00z model runs came in around 9-11 PM Thursday night it became very apparent that the I-95 east coast people lost their storm to rain and a sleet mix. My favorite comment came from a senior meteorologist from the National Weather Service who said "...stretch of 12-18" from the raw NAM from STL to IND to LIMA,OH to near TOL and DET. Lima OH gets 18" per the raw data. Use with a large grain of salt! But interesting none the less." Did he nail the intensity of the storm early or what?

My Thursday ended with a call for 6-8" with us seeing the high side of that amount and 90% call for cancelled sports activities at area schools. That happened!

Friday morning was the start to a wild and crazy forecast day. We had a 6-10" forecast from the northern NWS office and conservative 4-6" from Indy. The snow maps for the NAM forecast models showed a weekend total of 10-12". I really thought that was high and no way that forecast would verify.

As Friday progressed, each model run brought more and more craziness. Winter Storm Warnings were issued and 6-10" forecasts came our for Howard County from both NWS offices around lunch. The snow forecast was out to the public now and the Friday evening saw a madhouse at local stores with the typical run on staple items (milk, bread, eggs...). News reports showed long lines at the department and grocery stores.

Also some people in Chicago started to realized they were going to see a nice surprise snow. Winter Storm Warnings and Heavy Snow Warnings were going up from Plain States to New England. However the really craziness came with the 00z model run of the NAM.

It is generally considered the NAM is very reliable and accurate within 72 hours. The final path of the storm, the precipitation totals, and the ever so important line where snow changes to sleet/freezing rain was on everybodies mind. The NAM came up with unthinkable returns for snow totals of 15-20" Oh my!

The GFS model which was the first model to show and track the storm was much more conservative with its totals. That finally made me increase my forecast locally for 12-14". We also knew there would be a small snowfall in the morning and then the heavy stuff falling overnight.

When I awoke on Saturday, I had an uneasy feeling with the big forecast I made. Something told me I was caught up in model hype and listening to other weather weenies online. While I was teetering, others including TV meteorologists and NWS forecasters were not wavering. They were going for a huge storm. I guess I was on track. Well...

The morning didn't go as planned. The early snow of 3-4" didn't fall. Maybe an inch came down and the sleet/snow line was way closer south than I wanted. The northwest track of the storm was also happening which made me nervous. Could we get missed?

The late afternoon and evening brought some wavering from the NWS. The Indianapolis office dropped our totals to 4-6". However nobody else followed suit and still believed the overnight storm totals would be significant.

When he evening precipitation came, it brought an unexpected surprise. Sleet for several hours. Sleet was unexpected this far north. Finally after midnight the snow started to fall. I was also still assured we were going to see big snow.

When I finally look out at 5 AN after a few hours of sleep, I saw snow on the ground and more falling down. Not as much as I had hoped but still enough. It kept coming down for 2-3 more hours before tapering off.

Unexpectedly was the winds were not as high as forecast. Everyone had forecast 20-40 MPH winds and that didn't materialize. There were winds but the blizzard like conditions were not in Howard County.

An afternoon trip out did show some cleared state roads but snow packed and slick roads for the county roads and side streets. I was going to be confident in school delay forecast for Monday but they beat me to the punch and called it before I even started writing my storm wrap up.

In the end Howard County and Kokomo had about 5" on the ground. Some of the middle layers were packed well due to the sleet. It was not light and fluffy. Counties to the west and north did make out well with snow totals from 10-18". A good snow total for a December storm.

What can we expect for the future? Some snow and rain is forecast for later in the week in a couple of different rounds. It does seem winter storms are coming through here like trains on a track. A white Christmas? I will explore that more as the week goes by.

I want to personally thank everyone that reads the blog and visits the website. I do enjoy hearing from everyone as well. Comments or emails are always welcome.

Road Trip Video & Photos

video

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY

..BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY POOR IN RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM CITIES AND TOWNS.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

Snow Totals

It looks like Howard County took 4-5" with this storm. That seems accurate from walking around in my yard.

Snow Gone - Beautiful Left

It is beautiful outside. Of course for those needing to travel, the story might be different.

Still Snowing...

Since the change over from sleet around midnight, it looks like a fresh 3-4" has fallen. Another round is on radar looking to come in and hit us again for the next couple of hours and the winds will increase once the low pressure moves away from the area. We are no longer flirting with the freezing mark. Temperatures has fallen to 23 since midnight. Clearly we are going to receive only snow at this point forward.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Freezing Rain/Sleet Over Kokomo

Mixing and the NW Trend


The NW trend of the storm has brought IL more snow than expected. Places like lower WI were not expecting anything but a dusting are reporting several inches. We are were supposed to flirt with the sleet line but it wasn't supposed to respond back. Sleet is making some glazing on roadways and 1/4" has been reported in Clinton County.

Information from a on duty senior meteorologist from the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Office still thinks there are excellent possibilities for 8" overnight with a couple of really heavy hours of snow falling at a 2" rate.

Winds will be a factor for any snow amounts we receive with significant blowing and drifting tomorrow.

Regional Radar

Indianapolis Weather Story Updated - Lower Snow Totals

Overnight Snow Tracking Towards Us

Don't be fooled by the slow start to the storm. The daytime snow was not expected to be significant. Reports of 1-2" fell in the area making for slick roads. Bridges and overpasses are exceptionally slick and I have heard the Indiana State Police mention driver going to fast causing numerous accidents on US 31.

Overnight snow should be 6-10" tapering off by morning. The overall snow totals will be less that were forecast last evening but I think both weather weenies and professional meteorologists got caught up in model hype. The storm also is tracking much more NW that expected.

Chicago was never expecting much of anything with this storm but now they are getting a wallop. Heavy snow warnings and winter storm warnings are now all across northeast IL. But don't fret, we will get ours and the winds whip it around.

A quick video of the morning snow...

This is mostly a test for later when I have something better to show everyone. Snow is falling in the area...

video

10:30 AM Nowcast - Snow Storm In Progress

The mode has changed from forecasting to nowcasting the weekend snow storm. Overall things are on course as predicted. The snow is moving into the area. Spotter in Lebanon is reporting 2" on the ground. Snowing moderate in Lafayette.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Latest Forecast

It looks like the GFS model wants much lower totals. In fact they are almost too low to believe. I think a happy compromise is what is going to happen. However before I give my new total, remember just 17 hours ago I thought 10-12" was too much and no way it will verify. Well, this day brought new totals with each model run and now that is almost a lock to verify.

While anything can (and will) happen, I am suggesting a 12-14" snowfall range. If the heavy banding from the storm does happen over our area, no question we could go higher and might even cross 18" or more. One thing to notice is the sleet line is close to our area around the I-70 area. To get really good snow, you many times need to flirt with the sleet line.

Expect the snow to start early and give us a break during the afternoon. Then more snow and wind for the overnight. I will post updates throughout this storm. Please stay tuned.

Snow Forecast Continues to Climb

This map shows snow totals of 15+ inches for our area. This is the NAM forecast which has a good record in the short term. About another hour before the GFS shows its hand. This could get really, really dicey...

Here is a slightly higer ratio of 18-20" of snow. Damn!

Observation: There must be a snow storm coming.

A scheduled visit tonight to Krogers on Dixon Rd found the store packed and the egg shelf bare. There was some bread and milk but both showed signs of a serious run. I never understood the mentality of buying so much to cause a run on those items.

I will have an update around midnight after the newest model runs are available and have been analyzed.

***WINTER STORM WARNING***

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM ARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO E 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

WIND WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHEAST UP TO 30 MPH. ON SUNDAY...WIND WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL IMPACT ALL EAST AND WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

***WINTER STORM WARNING***

SNOWY WEEKEND AHEAD


The snow forecast will not be a bust this weekend and almost every weekend activity beyond hot chocolate in front of a warm fireplace will be affected. Snow will move into the area around noon on Saturday and bring 2" by evening. after a short break, the heavier snow will begin to fall overnight wrapping up early Sunday afternoon. Final snow total amounts will be 6-8" or more. Many models are showing a 10-12" potential for our area. However the belief if the thunderstorms in the south will rob some of the tropical moisture needed for the higher amounts.

While the snow will be enough to hamper travel plans and activities, an extra whammy from Mother Nature will be in the form of wind. Strong gusty winds 15-20 MPH will cause considerable blowing and drifting making driving nearly impossible.

Kokomo-Weather will be online providing updates as the storm passes through the area. I would welcome any photos and observations anyone would provide. Please email scankokomo@sbcglobal.net with that information. Also listen to ScanKokomo for live police and fire action for Howard and Tipton Counties.

First Look At Weekend Snow Maps

Good Morning Snow Lovers! To be frank, the local NWS office out of Indianapolis is not as aggressive with their snow forecast totals as the northern Indiana office or most of the forecast models. All we can do is wait and see if either NWS office changes or which forecast verifies.

The first two maps show total accumulated snowfalls by Monday morning from the last 2 runs of the NAM forecast model. They show pretty significant totals which I do think are too high but fun none the less. (Of course if 10-12" would verify, I would love it!)

I see a more realistic forecast coming in at 6-8" for our area with less west and south and more east. The next big weather measurement is at 7 AM with the data coming out of the models starting at 9 and ending around 10:30. Expect a lunchtime update.





Thursday, December 13, 2007

Saturday Snow Forecast Update

I think we will be on the high side of 6" to 8" with the storm over the weekend. Once the tomorrow morning runs are out, I will try to post a snowfall map plus any interesting ones I find online.

Saturday School Sports Forecast: I am 90% confident that area schools will cancel scheduled practices and games given the snow will be falling from early morning into the late evening.

18" of Snow?

Here is a little tidbit of information from a forecaster in northern Indiana National Weather Service office in North Webster. "...stretch of 12-18" from the raw NAM from STL to IND to LIMA,OH to near TOL and DET. Lima OH gets 18" per the raw data. Use with a large grain of salt! But interesting none the less." I took the liberty and drew a map. As he said, interesting stuff.

New Snow Forecast

The storm moisture did creep more NW in its track. (I wished it would just move more north now.) We will now look for a solid 4-6" of snow in our area with higher amounts to the east. The I-69 corridor could top 10" according to the NWS out of northern Indiana. I will do one additional update tonight after the latest model runs come in after 10:30.

2-4" of Snow for Saturday

No changes in the forecast models for our area. (The east coast I-95 corridor weather weenies are going nuts with all the flip-flops and less and less chances for them to see snow.) The main precipitation will fall south of the Ohio River where a 1 to 2+ inches of rain will fall. For us the precipitation amounts are about 0.25" to 0.35" which translates into 2-4" of snow.

12:35 Edit (to Add): I do see some NW trends to the track of the low. There is slight suggestion the heavier band of snow could target more across the general area of central Indiana. This could push snow total easily into 8-10" for the higher amounts spread across the areas. of course it will be another 11-12 hours before the better models give us more data to process. Stay Tuned...

Saturday Snow

It will not be a good day for shopping on Saturday. Snow will move across the area being heavier snow to the south. Accumulations still look in the 2-4" range for Kokomo/Howard County. Higher accumulations as you drive south to the Ohio River.

There is a moderate possibility of at least 4" of snow with a slight risk of 8" or more of snow.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Round One of Snow - Disqualified

The snow expected overnight looks to bust with warmer temperatures. Instead rain will fall adding to the already saturated conditions.

This weekend still looks promising but the track of the storm is still a little undecided so no change to the earlier predictions.

Soggy Weather - Snow Coming in Two Rounds

Most of the area saw over an inch of rain. (The electronic rain bucket of Kokomo-Weather missed some of the early wet stuff due to still being frozen so the total is a little light.) More rain is expected later today before turning to snow.

I still like my snowfall totals of 1-2" for the first round (Wednesday night, Thursday morning) and 2-4" for the weekend. Maybe a lunch update if something else changes on the latest model runs.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Precipitation Forecast

We are above freezing tonight and there might be an occasional slick spot in the morning as we hover near freezing. More rain tomorrow before we transition to snow for Wednesday evening into Thursday. I think the 1-2" snowfall totals are still likely what we will see with this first round of snow.

A second round of snow will come over the weekend. We should be on the north side of the snow as it looks to track across the Ohio Valley. Very early estimates would put us at 2-4" for the weekend.

Tight Temperature Gradient

It was very odd looking at the temperature map today. At one there was a 50 degree spread from the top to the bottom of the state.

Thursday Snow Forecast

I see several forecasts models showing snow for our area. At this time I don't see anything blowing up into a big storm unlike the east which will see some significant snows between now and Monday of next week. My early thinking for Thursday into Friday will be 1-2" at this time. I have seen early maps showing 3-6" but that seems too high at this time.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY - Temperature Forecast Busting!

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

The forecast highs have been scaled back 10+ degrees from this morning and I still think we will bust big and not make it. We are still at 35.2 degrees at 12:30.

Thursday could be a nice little snow. Stay Tuned...

Tuesday - Warm with Rain

There already is a warming trend on tap for today with temperatures reaching near mid 50. Over the next 24 hours expect 1/2" or more of rain to fall to make a soggy mess of an already soggy mess.

(It would be a good night to watch basketball. The Kokomo Girls host Carmel.)

Monday, December 10, 2007

Maybe "Quiet" was the wrong word to use...

In the mid day post I said there looked to be quiet weather pattern ahead. I think active might have been a better word. Things are picking up with possible freezing rain on Tuesday night and maybe a pretty good snow for Thursday. I won't go into detail with the forecast models until tomorrow but things are might be picking up.

Quiet Weather Pattern Ahead

The week looks to be much quieter than the past several days. Yes, we will see rain and maybe a lot of it. Yes, some snow might fall on Thursday but nothing to be alarmed about.

I would expect the Winter Storm Watch for northern Indiana to be tamed down for the counties just north of us.

All indications do show our little corner of the world will better than many areas that will see more ice and snow. Some areas of Oklahoma through Missouri have more than 1.5" of ice and more forecast.

The good news is with a more stable weather pattern, I might even be able to take a peek ahead at more weather between now and Christmas. (Well, maybe I can after I get my wife's Christmas presents. *GRIN*)

Question of the week: Wet or Winter Precipitation?

There is a dramatic difference on how 2 offices if the National Weather Service see the forecast in the area. Indianapolis which serves Howard County and south is seeing rain. The north office for Indiana is sticking with a wintry mix for our counties immediately north. Of course there has been a very fine line all along with the storm and a few miles either way can make a difference in weather conditions.

There is a Winter Storm Watch for counties north and basically nothing in Howard County. I would expect some movement towards a wintry mix out of Indianapolis as the day progresses.

I also am not seeing any melting outside and Kokomo-Weather has not broken the freezing mark for days. However the airport is reporting 36 currently verses 30.9. I did check a nearby school and their sign is showing 35 so maybe things are different 8 miles to the NE.