Tuesday, May 24, 2011

[UPDATED WED 10:15 AM] Wednesday: Possible Tornado Outbreak In Indiana

Update 10:15 AM:  Tornado Watch until 7 PM this evening.

 Update 9 AM: As forecast below, we were upgraded locally to a moderate risk and  a high risk was issued south.  (I almost drew a map last evening for the moderate and high risk areas.  If I did, it would have been almost dead on with the SPC map this morning.)

 The SERF continues to paint a scary picture for tornadic activity today.

Already some convection with warnings to our west but this wave is not the real show.  It starts this afternoon.  The NWS in Indianapolis has issued a Special Weather Statement which would be good for you to review.


Portions of Indiana is likely to see a significant severe weather event on Wednesday including tornadoes.  Some tornadoes could be long tracked and violent.

The SERF model from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed a bullseye over our region including Kokomo.  Unlike in winter when we love to be the center of the bullseye, this is one time when you want to be missed.  These maps are 5 PM and 8 PM on Wednesday.

The SERF model has had a good history of outlining the area of tornadoes in the past couple of months.  the higher number of 40 or 50 which are depicted here are strong indicators of a large scale event.  It happened in in the south at the end of April, it happened on Sunday for Joplin, and it happened tonight for Oklahoma. 

While I am hopeful we won't see anything of that magnitude, I cannot rule that out.  It is extremely important that you follow local media tomorrow along with checking in here and on my social media stream on Twitter and Facebook.

(Please note that during active times, I am usually out Skywarn spotting and reporting back via Amateur radio to the National Weather Service.  I usually cannot answer questions but will try to tweet information as often as I can.)

Twitter followers should also consider watching the #INwx hashtag for info from many weather enthusiasts, individuals, and trained meteorologists. 

These maps show that tomorrow during the dinner hour, Cape values exceed 1500+, EHI is 4+, Helicity is 300+, and strong winds turning at carious levels of the atmosphere.  All signs of severe weather and tornadic activity.

I cannot stress enough that you need to be alert of ever changing conditions.  You need to be responsible for your own safety and have a plan in place for home, work, and anywhere else you happen to be.  There is an excellent chance things will be rocking before you get home from work.  I would suggest one or more of the free alerting services for your cell phone or email:

The Weather Channel
Emergency Email & Wireless Network
WISH-TV Channel 8

While not free, I personally use StormNow and at a cost of $2 per month, it is the best money spent.  I almost always receive a warning email before the weather radio goes off.

Besides severe weather, heavy rain is possible through Thursday.  Area where cells set up could bring several inches of rain rather quickly and cause flash flooding. 

My thoughts for tomorrow believe that we will be on the top edge of a moderate risk and a high risk will be issued to our south.  Keep alert and there should be plenty to talk about tomorrow...

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