Darn Forecast Models!

What a tough day to write in the blog. Usually I would have had a noon update with the weather pattern being active but time was limited and the forecast models were not were anyone expected them to be today.

Let's pause and talk briefly about the forecast models. There are many versions out there but the GFS and Euro are a couple of the more popular ones that do longer range forecasts. These are what most people are looking at when talking about a storm 7 or more days away. Twice each day at 00z and 12z or 7 AM and 7 PM Indiana time weather reading are taken around the world using all types of instruments including weather balloons which measure tens of thousands of feet in the air.

This data is then feed into the models and new forecasts are churned out three hours later. Usually around 10 AM or 10 PM people start analyzing the data and update forecasts. Then discussion takes place and forecasts are tweaked. It is acknowledged that models are not perfect so people will use their expertise to fine tune the forecasts.

So where does that leave us? Well I personally am not blessed with expertise forecasting the weather so I take several sources from amateur weather weenies to meteorologists to professional forecasters to the National Weather Service and come up with some basic predictions.

Back to the specifics of today and I can say after several consistent model runs forecasting snow, the models didn't bring the cold air in and a huge portion of yesterdays snow map was now rain or ice. Nobody seemed to believe it and all types of theories were tossed about. So that made me rethink what I was going to post.

In the end I will post the map from the NWS with Hazards Assessment for the upcoming storm. I will be like everyone else watching the new model run coming out in a few hours and will post what I know.