2009-2010 Winter Outlook Summary

Hello and welcome to the much anticipated 2009-2010 Winter Outlook Summary and the annual prediction of snow days for Howard County Schools.

As you know, my call for winter is a blend of many other more detailed and thought out winter forecasts. The good thing about these forecasts is each of those has been debated to the nth degree, mainly by others much smarter than me. Hopefully I have been able to weed out the wishcasts from those which have some scientific and meteorological merit and have been able to find some common ground in which to make my forecast summary.

When sorting over the winter outlooks, there are two themes which seem to dominate. The first group believes this will be an El Niño year. The Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) made their winter outlook based upon this thinking and they are not alone. El Niño winters for us are generally not good if you are a snow lover and like the prolonged cold in Indiana since we tend to be warm and dry.

While it does appear many of the variables which make up the El Niño are trending in that direction, a second group of winter outlooks are not jumping on the El Niño bandwagon. Currently the El Niño is in the low moderate range and they believe it will begin to relax considerably in the next few weeks. The second group also says let's look at the current pattern and asks for someone to really show them where it is changing. In fact they say even when El Niño has strengthened, the pattern has persisted.

Let's take a look at the pattern and how it has affected us. It has been cooler around for us and thinking back, it never really was a blistering hot summer like we most of the times have in Indiana. Since January 1, we are about 1 degree cooler than normal. The last three months are about 1 to 2 degrees cooler and the last 30 days has us 2 to 4 degrees cooler.


Doing the same for precipitation, we are 120% above normal since January 1, about the same for the past three months but a whooping 300% for the past 30 days.


The pattern has made us cooler and wetter than normal. Does the pattern continue to persist? Some forecasters believe so and created their winter forecasts accordingly. The El Niño group has been pointing to the very recent warming trend which has place the temperatures plus 2 to 4 degrees over normal for much eastern third of the United States and are already declaring an early victory.

What we really know is everybody could be wrong and long range forecasting is as much art as it is science and depending on the market for which one forecasts, it can sometimes skew the reasoning. Some believe that the forecast is created first and that the science is then found to support it. That sounds very plausible since I am looking for the forecasts which will allow me to predict cold and snowy since that is the winter weather I love. (I know Julie wants that too!)

However I think I am able to find a good summary based mainly upon solid and well reasoned forecasts. So let's get down to my 2009-2010 winter forecast for Howard County and Kokomo, Indiana.

In general I think the warming trend will continue keeping us with above normal temperatures for November and December. While I don't expect and record setting warmth, I could see a few days where one could skip wearing a coat in December.

January will be cold. Very cold in fact. Almost all camps believe that January will have several prolonged cold snaps driving down the overall temperature departures much below normal. February will still remain cold early but will give way to a late warming trend which will continue with an above normal March. Spring (and severe weather) will come early to Indiana.

Precipitation will continue to be above normal. El Niño or not I just cannot see it being dry. However it won't be stretched out over the entire winter but will come in big shots. Unfortunately many of the big shots will be rainmakers. But wait, there is some hope for snow lovers...

We should see several Alberta Clippers during our cold snap in January and early February and a couple of those should over perform providing decent snows of four to six inches. Otherwise I could see a lot of small dustings of one to two inches or as I call them, nuisance snows.

I do think a *big monster* will come together with two or even three systems phasing together giving us a 16"+ snow storm across a large portion of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Don't worry if this doesn't happen during the coldest parts of the winter. This could very well be a late winter blast sometime in March.

In conclusion, I think we will see around 16 to 20 inches of snow outside of the big one which should top us out over 30 inches or slightly above average. If we don't see a big snow, then look for below average for the winter.

Now to be fair, I should be like many forecasters and go back and grade myself on my previous years prediction. (It also allows me to keep up the suspense before we get to the snow day prediction which is what everyone wants to know.) Unfortunately Howard County is not an official reporting station for climate data so I will use both Lafayette and Indianapolis as my references.

I predicted cold for December and it turned out to be neutral (or right about average). The bookend theme for last year had everyone going warm in January and like them, I busted with Indy -3.5 degrees and Lafayette -3.1 degrees below normal. Of course the cold snap which brought temperatures below zero for a couple of days including a -19 reading didn't help us out. The bookend idea would have been right had we went warm/cold/warm for December/January/February. February blowtorched with a +3 to +4 above average temperature. Ouch! So I guess I blew the entire winter forecast on temperatures. Grade: F

For snow, I had 50 to 60 inches which is above average. (Note: Howard County has an exceptionally high average due to a single winter in the early 80's either having a unbelievable snowfall or the recorded data being incorrect. I plan to do some additional research on this topic and hopefully can report back sometime later this winter.) Well, the winter was a bust for snow. We had only one snow event which produced a day off from school. The snow event on January 28th dropped 7.5 inches. If not for that one single event, it would have been pretty bleak with the snow totals. Overall we finished with about 12 to 15 inches of snow and far below my predicted 50 to 60 inches and well below any believable normal of 24 to 27 inches which is where I think normal is for Howard County should be. Grade: F

At least my forecast wasn't a complete failure. I predicted four snow days and as you know, snow days are a general term for weather related days off from school. I got three or 75% of my prediction. (I am using Northwestern as my measuring mark but I do believe Eastern and Western took a fourth day off but forget exactly the circumstances.) While only one was from the white stuff, two additional days came about from the frigid temps experienced in January. (You remember January, the month which was supposed to be warm!) I think I can fairly give myself a good mark but I do need to take a little for due to the lack of actual snow events. Grade: B-

2009-2010 Snow Day Prediction: I am going with five snow day (weather related) closures this winter. Of course without my phased monster, I might very well bust. This is before March 15th (unless I need an extension - hehe). Kids - enjoy them!

Revisiting the outlook: I am going to try and revisit my winter outlook a few times this year and should things be heading in a totally different direction, I will adjust accordingly. I should have see it coming last winter with the poor forecast. The only thing which will stand fast will be the snow day prediction of five.

Disclaimer: This outlook is as much for fun as anything else. Don't bet your life or property on it and never risk your financial future on what I am saying. Look to a trained professional for those predictions.

Gratitude: Thanks to the many professional and hobbyist forecasters from the many weather boards and professional weather sites I visit.