Taking a real look for snow...

This is frustrating storm to figure out and I sure hope they are not all this hard this winter or there will be a lot of late nights watching model runs and then still not knowing anything for certain. What I do know right now is the storm is shown all over the place and that it is very unlikely to be a major hit for anyone.

There are a multitude of issue with this system besides the track too. We are going to be warm. Tuesday looks to be a tick above 50 and sunny. We have not had any sustained cold so the ground is also warm so anything falling will melt early on.

The system is a fast mover so no matter where it tracks, nobody will receive a long duration snow storm however there could be some pretty heavy rates as it falls and it will be wet and heavy.

If the storm comes to us, then the southern stream of moisture won't mix in with the northern stream early enough so we will receive a cold and miserable rain before the transition to snow.

If there is a good phase of the two, the storm will most likely pull west and give us a trace amount or slightly more. It would be doubtful we would even see an inch of the white stuff.

One problem we have is the sampling of weather is poorly done over Mexico where the southern stream is currently tracking. A better indicator of the track and hopefully some consensus will happen with the Tuesday morning model runs and I should think a solid idea on where it is going will be in place by this time tomorrow.

I still like the chances for a 2 hour delay on Thursday is even a small amount of snow falls given it is the first of the season.

Beyond this storm system, several more are on track for our area next week so even if this is a miss, we might have a better shot next week with cold air already partially in place. Stay tuned for more updates...