Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Debating...

I have debated since my 6 am review of the severe weather forecast and data on what to write.  The cloud deck has been keeping things cool and for me that leads me to believe there will not be a lot of help to get things fired up.  Many of my online weather enthusiasts also share in my concerns.  However the Storm Prediction Center is thinking otherwise.  Here is the portion relating to Indiana...

...IL/IND...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTUREIS ALSO INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG IN THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A
RE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...BOTH
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARMSECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MESOSCALE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS REGION IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
DISCRETE INITIATION
.LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A RISKOF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD INTO IND.

So now what do I say. I do see a non severe warned cell coming alive west of Urbana but that should track to our north.  Some partial clearing is also taking place in central and southern IL. hhhmmm.....

I say stay tuned and in a couple more hours we should have a better idea how today might play out.

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