Sunday, April 4, 2010

Some Odds & Ends...

The winter forecast still is producing results.  I mentioned there would be an early and warm spring with March being above normal.  You can see we were 3 to 6 degrees above normal for the month.  Of course record temperatures were reached for the first two days of April with 80+ was achieved both days.

My prediction of an early severe weather season is busting.  However the consensus from many severe weather experts is that the season will be delayed and will then shift east.  You can read the Accuweather forecast here.

Back to winter for a second and some personal horn tooting, I participated in a snow forecast contest that covered an area from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and a bit of Canada.  In a straight up comparison of snow totals forecast versus actual, I finished fourth.  I was 88.2 inches too much but a just 6 inches better would have given me second place.  No professional meteorologist finished higher. 

My overall forecast error of individual locations put me in first place and some complex formula that is supposed to really take into account a combination of many factors showing true forecasting skill had me finish in third overall.  As I said to some fellow contestants, not bad for wild guesses.  My biggest downfall was Ottawa and Toronto Canada which has near record low snowfall.  Just over 60 inches of my 88 inch error can be attributed to these two locations. 

Severe weather looks to be active this week.  I think Indiana will see some bits and pieces from the bigger show out to our west.  West central and northern Illinois looks to be a good battleground right now.  You can see today, Monday, and Tuesday all have slight risk factors.  I am sure I will be updating more about this as the week goes on.

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