Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Interesting AFD from IWX

The northern Indiana National Weather Service Office has made a rather bullish AFD for next week...

TUE-WED...VERY INTERESTING WX SCENARIO IN THIS PERIOD AS A POTENT /LIKELY 200 KNOT/ UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A VERY STRONG SFC REFLECTION IN THE MIDWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. TRACK/SPEED/AND LL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN  THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM TO RUN TO RUN PER THESE DETAILS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF TREND BEING FOR A MUCH MORE NORTHERN BIASED TRACK. AM CONCERNED THAT THIS MAY BE   TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER JET WITH MUCH MORE INTENSE HEIGHT DIGGING PREFERRED AS STATED ABOVE IN LINE WITH  UKMET/GEM/AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MEAN GEFS. ANOTHER DETAIL THAT WILL PLAY A SIG ROLE IN THE STORM TRACK WILL BE THE DEGREE OF CAA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONGER CAA SUPPORTING A SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE STORM TRACK. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND HAVE ADDED THE NEW DAY 7 IN LINE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOL BIASED TEMPS. DID INCREASE POPS TUE IN THE WESTERN HALF WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND LL FORCING EXPECTED PER THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

1 comment:

stanswx said...

Davenport is mentioning it as well but doesn't go as far as IWX.

"A MAJOR STORM IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS OUR FORECAST MAY
CONTINUE TO REFLECT A MORE BENIGN REGIME."